iPredict Weekly Update #47: Rena Hurts Nats
October 14th, 2011 at 10:38 pm by Kokila PatelKey Points:
* Rena disaster may cost National 5 MPs and a reduced majority in Bay of Plenty
* Greens up for fifth week in a row with 14 MPs now expected
* Labour back above 30% and Damien O’Connor ahead in West Coast-Tasman
* Act weakens in Epsom while Sharples’ hold on Tamaki-Makaurau strengthens
* National could govern with Greens, Act or Maori Party
* Alan Bollard now expected to hold off OCR increase till April 2012
* Macroeconomic indicators remain steady
* Fonterra’s forecast 2011/12 payout falls slightlyCommentary:
The Rena grounding has hurt National and helped Labour and the Greens, iPredict’s first weekly snapshot since the disaster suggests. According to the online predictions market with its 5000 registered traders, National’s forecast party vote has plunged from 50% last week to just 46% this week, potentially costing it five MPs compared with last week, while its Bay of Plenty MP, Tony Ryall, is now expected to suffer a reduced majority. Labour is up from 28.5% to 31.0%, which would give them 39 MPs, while the Greens are also big winners from the disaster, increasing their forecast party vote for the fifth week in a row to 11.1% which would deliver them 14 MPs. In economics, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard is now expected to hold off a rise in the OCR till April 2012, while most other economic indicators (GDP Growth, Unemployment, Inflation, and Current Account Deficit) have remained steady.
Economic Context
Expectations for GDP growth have remained steady this week. Growth is expected to be 0.6% for the September 2011 quarter, 0.6% for the December 2011 quarter and 0.4% for the March 2012 quarter.
Expected unemployment has also remained steady this week. Unemployment remains forecast to be 6.4% in the September quarter, 6.2% in the December quarter, and 6.2% in the March 2012 quarter.
Inflation expectations have also remained steady this week, with annual inflation expected to be 5.0% in the September quarter, 2.8% in the December quarter and 2.6% in the March 2012 quarter.
For the week ending 30 September 2011, the market was predicting petrol prices to be $2.06, just shy of the released figure of $2.10 per litre. Other petrol price expectations have moved this week, being $2.08 (down from $2.09) for the week ending 28 October 2011, $2.10 (up from $2.08) for the week ending 25 November and $2.07 (up from $2.06) for the week ending 30 December.
Fonterra’s expected final payouts have moved this week. Fonterra’s final payout for the 2011/12 is expected to be $7.33 (down from $7.36 last week), the 2012/13 payout $7.74 (steady), the 2013/14 payout $7.42 (up from $7.41 last week) and the 2014/15 payout $7.43 (up from $7.39 last week).
Predictions of an OCR increase have eased further this week. The market predicts that the Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard will hold off an increase in the OCR till April 2012, when it will rise to 2.75%, and then again in June to 3.00%.
The expected 90-day bank bill rate for 1 December is 2.90% (down from 2.95% last week).
Current Account deficit expectations have remained steady this week. The market predicts a deficit of 3.95% of GDP for the year to September and 3.13% of GDP for the year to December.
Parties & Personnel
All current leaders of parliamentary parties have at least a 93% probability of remaining in their positions until the election. The most vulnerable is now Maori Party Co-leader Tariana Turia, but with the market forecasting just a 7% probability she will be replaced prior to the election.
There is a 10% probability (down from 18% last week) that there will be changes to the top ten of the Labour Party list, announced on 10 April 2011, when it is registered with the Electoral Commission. There is a 10% probability that a Minister will depart before the election.
Annette Sykes continues to be forecast to be the highest ranked person on the Mana Party list other than Party Leader Hone Harawira (86% probability down from 88% last week).
Key Electorate Contests
The forecast winner in the highly marginal West Coast-Tasman has changed again. Labour’s Damien O’Connor has again snuck ahead, with a 50% probability of winning the seat (up from 45% last week), while National’s Chris Auchinvole has a 48% probability of prevailing (down from 55% last week)
In other electorates, the probability that National will beat last election’s majority in Tauranga is 81% (down from 89%), in Rangitata 80% (steady), in Clutha Southland 78% (steady), in Helensville 69% (steady), in North Shore 45% (down from 52%), in Bay of Plenty 45% (down from 50%), in Rangitikei 26% (steady), in Rodney 22% (steady) and in Ilam just 19% (steady).
The market is predicting that Labour faces reduced majorities in a number of safe seats. The probability that Labour will decrease its majority in New Lynn is 88%, in Te Atatu 80%, in Hutt South 60%, and in Wigram, Dunedin South, and Manurewa 52%. Labour Leader Phil Goff looks set to maintain his majority in Mt Roskill.
Act is also expected to reduce its 2008 majority in Epsom with a just a 17% probability it will increase (down from 26% last week). The chances of the party winning the seat at all have also dropped markedly to 66% from 80% last week.
In Ohariu, the odds of United Future’s Peter Dunne retaining the seat have remained steady this week with the market forecasting he has an 83% probability of being re-elected.
New Zealand First remains below MMP’s 5% threshold, with a forecast 4.7% vote share (up from 3.6%). Party leader Winston Peters has a 17% probability of returning to Parliament (up from 15% last week).
Expectations that Mana Party leader Hone Harawira will retain the Te Tai Tokerau seat in the General Election have remained steady at 80% this week.
The probability Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples will win Tamaki-Makaurau has improved markedly this week. Dr Sharples now has a 75.7% probability or retaining his seat (up from 59.9% last week) over Labour’s Shane Jones at 25.6% (down from 41.7% last week).
Maori Party co-Leader Tariana Turia is still expected to retain Te Tai Hauauru (89%, down from 93% last week), and her colleague Te Ururoa Flavell is expected to retain Waiariki (79%, up from 77% last week).
For the Labour Party, Nanaia Mahuta is expected to retain Hauraki-Waikato (82%, down from 86% last week) and Labour’s hold on Ikaroa-Rawhiti is now at 80% probability (up from 77% last week).
Te Tai Tonga remains forecast to change hands, with a 70% probability it will be won by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene from the Maori Party’s Rahui Katene (up from 68% last week).
In marginal electorates other than those mentioned above, the probability National’s Jonathan Young will retain New Plymouth is 83% (steady). There is a 73% probability that National’s Nikki Kaye will retain Auckland Central (up from 72% last week) and an 84% likelihood National’s Paula Bennett will retain her Waitakere seat (up from 83% last week). In the Te Atatu electorate, Labour’s Phil Twyford has a 72% likelihood of winning the seat (down from 76% last week), and Iain Lees-Galloway has a 68% probability of victory in Palmerston North (down from 70% last week).
On a seat-by-seat basis, National is expected to win 40 electorate seats (down from 41 seats last week), Labour 24 (up from 23 last week), the Maori Party 3 and Act, United Future and the Mana Party 1 seat each.
Party Vote, and Election Results
Forecast party vote shares are now: National 46.0% (down from 50.0% last week) Labour 31.0% (up from 28.5% last week), the Greens 11.1% (up from 10.7% last week), New Zealand First 4.7% (up from 3.6% last week), Act 3.1% (down from 3.2% last week), UnitedFuture 1.6% (up from 1.1% last week), the Maori Party 1.2% (down from 1.4% last week), the Mana Party 1.1% (up from 1.0% last week), the Conservative Party 1.0% (up from 0.9% last week), and the New Citizen Party 0.5% (steady).
Based on this data, and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 58 MPs, Labour 39 MPs, the Greens 14 MPs, Act 4 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs, and the Mana party just 1 MP. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. John Key’s National Party would be able to govern with any one of the Greens, Act or Maori Party.
Given New Zealand First’s proximity to MMP’s 5% threshold, iPredict has also analysed what might happen should New Zealand First win 5.0% of the vote. Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows: National 56 MPs, Labour 37 MPs, the Greens 13 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, Act 4 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs, and the Mana Party just 1 MP. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply meaning John Key’s National Party would require the support of the Greens, or Act and one of the Maori or UnitedFuture parties.
Overall the market indicates a 92% probability there will be a National Prime Minister after the election (down from 95% last week).
MMP Referendum and Miscellaneous
As iPredict forecast, the original version of the Video Camera Surveillance (Temporary Measures) Bill was not passed with a Bill not involving retrospectivity being passed instead.
The probability New Zealanders will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on Election Day has increased to 87%, up from 85% last week.
iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. This week’s was taken at 7:55am today.
Related posts:
- iPredict Weekly Update 21 July 2011
- iPredict Election Update #44: Nats could govern alone
- iPredict Election Update #45: Nats above 50%
- iPredict Election Update #37
October 15th, 2011 at 6:00 am
Why should Rena hurt National? They are hardly responsible. National and the appropriate authorities seem to have handled the situation reasonably well. The same can be said of the Christchurch earthquake. Labourt’s criticisms are to be expected.
Vote:October 15th, 2011 at 7:29 am
Bob, even if Labour stood back and applauded National’s every move over the Rena spill National would still lose ground. That’s just a reality that any party in power has to face when a disaster of this significance occurs.
For my money National have, somewhat surprisingly, mismanaged the politics around this far worse than the disaster itself. Reading through the timeline in the herald online leaves the clear impression they underestimated from day one.
Vote:October 15th, 2011 at 7:41 am
the Nats will take hits over the Rena because voters can be short-term emotional people.
Vote:14 freaking Green MPs is frightening
October 15th, 2011 at 7:48 am
This is the inevitable closing up of the polls that happens every election, cos Kiwis don’t like people way out front, and emotionally support the underdog. Expect Lab to lift more yet and National to fall back to its vote of 2008. Long term Lab have got to curb the Greens or they are in trouble as a duopoly (serves em right).
Vote:October 15th, 2011 at 7:50 am
Also, Nats biggest prob in 2011 is getting its vote out, a result that will not be reflected in the poll results pre-election.
Vote:October 15th, 2011 at 8:44 am
The interesting prediction is the O’Conner one, Damien should romp home against “The invisible man” , the only reason for him ever losing his seat in the first place was people were sick of the she beast and her style of government.
Vote:Chris A has been conspicuous by his total lack of engagement with the electorate, and has only ever sat in as a babysitter, the party seems comfortable with this hence his high spot on the list.
O’Connor is one of the only male Labour MP’s to have stood up to the sisterhood, unlike the rest of the geldings that sit round their table.
October 15th, 2011 at 9:37 am
Bob
Vote:Only people who don’t live in CHCh think the CHCh earthquake situation has been handled well. Many people here feel that it has been grossly mismanaged. Some even describe the ”recovery” as the disaster not the earthquake itself.
October 15th, 2011 at 10:51 am
‘For my money National have, somewhat surprisingly, mismanaged the politics around this far worse than the disaster itself. Reading through the timeline in the herald online leaves the clear impression they underestimated from day one”
There are no politics about a national fucking disaster. Hear that? It’s a disaster and not a ploy for clowns like Goff and Hughes to score political points. If national has lost ground it is because these imbeciles have appealed to the vulnerable emotions of those affected. Worse – they have done so dishonestly. Goff has repeatedly stated that the government stuffed up. Finally, when asked to say what he would have done, he admitted that he is not an expert and he was simply reflecting what other people feel. He has not at any stage said what he would have done differently. He had nine years in government to see that the resources that he now suggests are necessary were in place. To liken the oil drilling to a ship disaster is complete nonsense. In my view, even his statement yesterday that there would be a moratorium on oil drilling until he was satisfied that it was safe was a complete nonsense. I venture to suggest that Goff would not know what “safe” is even if someone wrapped it around a bit of 4 x 2 and whacked him round the head with it. When somebody wants consent to drill oil they will have to produce a safe management plan. That is when you consider it – not at the time of a totally unrelated maritime accident that was completely avoidable. He is a complete and utter charlatan. Hughes is the same. He seems to think that they should have been pumping from day 1 but has not the foggiest idea about the technology involved, resources necessary and the practicality of the whole thing. They have been grossly are responsible.
Vote:People like you, m@tt, are despicable in the way you turn this into a political issue. I have yet to see you make a constructive comment on this blog. It is constant negative sniping. You reflect an attitude which is holding this country back. It is based on pettiness, jealousy, divisiveness and negativity. We had nine years of that. At the last election, that approach was unceremoniously dumped but people like you simply will not learn to accept that. If you want to add to the debate why not offer some facts and expertise rather than depositing your bilious spew whenever the urge takes you.
October 15th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
I thought Goff was a Marine Salvage expert. Shortly after the event he came across as on.
Vote:October 15th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Paulus
Vote:We can really only look at this matter phonetically and apply this definition of expert: “Ex” = has-been. “Spurt” = drip under pressure. Sums him up really.