US Election Results

November 7th, 2012 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

I’m a guest of the US Embassy this afternoon, so not sure how much blogging I’ll be able to do as we watch the results come in. So feel free to use this thread for updates and the like.

UPDATE: It’s 1540 and I am calling it for Obama and think he will get at least 300. I can not see anyway the lead in Ohio can be reversed.

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352 Responses to “US Election Results”

  1. kiwi in america (2,495 comments) says:

    I posted this over at Whaleoil earlier today. Cameron as you know has a man crush on Nate Silver. I’ll take Michael Barone’s prognostications any day over Nate Silver’s http://washingtonexaminer.com/
    He’s been at this game for decades and has dozens of accurate predictions under his belt.

    First off the popular vote – I’m picking Romney by 5. Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008 getting the PV 100% accurate. The partisan mix is in their last poll is D +2. However a week ago they published their two yearly huge partisan survey (9,000 + respondents) and they have the partisan split at R+6 – the biggest in their polling history. Gallup did the same and came up with R + 1. If I go with the lowest of these two it means Rasmussen’s PV poll, whilst more accurate than almost all the other polls, is still overweighting in favour of the Dems by about 3. My prediction of the PV margin is the current Rasmussen lead (matched by Gallup) of 1 plus the over identification factor of 3 and an allowance of 1 due to the dissipation of Obama’s Sandy bounce. Rasmussen daily tracking uses a 3 day rolling average and Gallup a 5 day and so on Monday both were still factoring the tail end of Obama’s modest post Sandy bounce that is now almost dissipated especially with it turning ugly on the ground in parts of NYC and NJ.

    Romney is a lock on 187 Electoral College votes (this includes 2 of
    the 3 in Nebraska and 1 of the 3 in Maine) then add:
    * Indiana (11) – an outlier result for Obama in 08 it will return to its GOP home.
    * North Carolina (15) – Ditto IN
    * Florida (20) – Seniors will break more heavily for Romney as Mediscare didn’t work and Obama’s Jewish vote will also be well down on 08
    * Virginia (13) – will be close due to the northern VA – DC exburbs being one of the few communities to benefit from the stimulus BUT Obama dissing Romney over the navy numbers in the 3rd debate will have knocked a few swaying voters to Romney.
    * Colorado (9) – party ID in CO has swung back to the GOP, the DNC in Denver in 08 helped to swing votes to Obama.
    * Iowa (6) – Des Moines Register and 3 other papers switching endorsements (the DMR first Republican endorsement since Eisenhower) will have turned a few voters.
    * New Hampshire (4) – has more Independents than almost any other state and all polls (even the ones with silly +D splits) have Romney leading Independents.
    * Wisconsin (10) – GOP ground game is at a peak after going 3 for 3 (2010 midterms, Gov Scott Walker’s July 2012 recall and the May 2012 State Supreme Court fight).
    * Ohio (18) – will be the squeaker of the night. GOP ground game will at least match Obama’s so there will be no reversal of the historical trend where the GOP gets more votes on the day than the Dems and Romney election night lead won’t be offset by Obama’s early vote lead that is significantly down on 08.
    * Pennsylvania (20) – this will be Romney’s outer reach. Being considered a lock for Obama almost all of the campaign means the PA voters were not exhausted by all the ads like they are in Ohio and other swing states. Romney and various GOP Super PACs’ ads have been running heavily over the last week and will reach a much more fertile audience than in OH. High turnout in coal country for Romney (amongst traditional blue collar unionized Dem voters) and swinging the suburban Philly soccer mum vote will just (only just) compensate for the huge metro Philly Dem machine that will suffer a small downturn in turn out due to being caught napping by the very late incursion by the Romney campaign.

    So: Romney 313 Obama 225!

    REASONS:

    1. Poll sampling errors: So many polls are overweighting the partisan splits in favour of Democrats. For example the last CNN poll has O and R tied but assumes a turnout for Dems IN EXCESS of what they got in 2008 (D+7 in 08 nationally vs D+11 in this poll). These flawed assumptions are repeated in the majority of the national and battleground polls heavily skewering the RCP averages to Obama. These are the polls all the pundits are relying upon as evidence of an Obama win.
    2. Independents: They were the winning edge for Obama in 08 – he won them nationally by 8%. Poll after poll (even the ones skewered way too far in favour of the Dems) show Romney leading by high single figure to mid teen margins representing a massive swing of Independents. No President has ever won if he’s losing Independents by these margins.
    3. Electorate more Republican now: Partisan makeup of the electorate is now slightly in favour of the GOP versus strongly in favour of the Dems in 08 according to both the Gallup and Rasmussen partisan ID polls (huge sample sizes) and both polls
    historically have been close to the final actual partisan split in each election cycle as this 2 yearly poll is held usually only a week before the elections.
    4. Voter enthusiasm: All polls that measure this show this favouring the GOP markedly in 12 whereas the same polls had Democrat enthusiasm up in 08. Enthusiasm is down the most amongst Millennials and first time voters – a key demograph that turned out in record numbers for O in 08.
    5. On the ground reporting: Overwhelmingly people are reporting the near ubiquitous presence of Romney signs in battleground states and few Obama signs – a complete reversal of the case in 08.
    6. Rallies: Romney’s rallies have been significantly larger than Obama’s and also significantly larger than McCain’s – in 08 Obama was the one with the large and overflowing audiences. The Romney campaign has used larger venues and all have been full to overflowing with thousands outside. Team Obama have been half filling their smaller venues. In Madison WI yesterday 18,000
    showed up for Obama’s Bruce Springsteen free outdoor concert/rally. Same location on the last Monday before the 2004 election with the same singer 75,000 showed up for Kerry’s rally. The atmosphere at the rallies are markedly different – Romney’s are raucus, electric and energised whereas Obama’s are more subdued – again a reversal of the situation in 08.
    7. Early voting: As at Monday Dem early votes were down 152,000 from 08 in Ohio and GOP was up 108,000 wiping out Obama’s 261,000 statewide margin of victory in 08. This trend is repeated across the battleground states – Obama is winning the early vote but by reduced margins. Remember that in many swing states McCain out performed Obama on election day only to lose once Obama’s huge early vote tallies were included. Romney’s margin will be bigger for those voting today and Obama’s early vote offset will be smaller. Obama is also cannibalizing his election day vote to a greater extent than in 08.
    8. Ground game: Obama had a massive ground game in 08 compared to McCain. This time it’s pretty even particularly in the swing states.
    9. Ads: Obama outspent McCain 7:1 in the last 2 weeks as McCain was out of cash. Romney kept his powder dry and HE is outspending Obama 2:1 in the key states in the campaign’s closing weeks.
    10. Crossover voting: The CNN poll released yesterday showing that 5% of Democrats say they will support Romney whereas only 1% of Republicans say they’ll vote for Obama. This is the reverse of 08.
    11. Turnout reports: I’ve checked hundreds of anecdotal reports of turnout since the polls opened today. Almost all report big increases in queues compared to 08 and earlier elections in GOP strongholds and significantly quieter turnout in
    Democrat precincts – again the reverse of what was reported in 08.

    Bottom line – Leighton’s bet with Whale is safe and Whale will be shouting! Oh and Nate Silver’s reputation will be in tatters!

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  2. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Lucky some!

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  3. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    I think you should right yourself off and take a swing at a marine. it would be legendary

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  4. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Can you imagine how worked up bedwetter will be that DPF is at the yankee embassy?

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  5. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Obama will get approx 290 votes, it is all over.

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  6. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Go no further than the U.S best political blog: http://www.drudgereport.com/

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  7. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Who has the best results site?

    Fox seems good: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results/

    I think Ohio will be a strong indicator as to the winner, their polls close 1.30pm our time.

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  8. RRM (9,769 comments) says:

    I walked past the front gate of the U.S. embassy once and I tapped each of the steel bollards with my knuckle as I went.

    The security guard in his little bulletproof pill box by the gate gave me the dirtiest look I’ve ever seen.

    God Bless America :lol:

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  9. KiwiGreg (3,246 comments) says:

    I found the submachine gun totting (British) police around the London US embassy to be pretty friendly.

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  10. cha (3,919 comments) says:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

    http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

    http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/live-coverage

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  11. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    foxnews.com is pretty dam good!

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  12. Kleva Kiwi (285 comments) says:

    Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana all heading Romneys way

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  13. Jimmy Smits (246 comments) says:

    Does anyone know the best place in Auckland to see these results live? Also, what time does it go to?

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  14. KevinH (1,192 comments) says:

    I’m still picking the incumbent Barrack Obama by the slimmest of margins and unlike Kiwi In America I’m not going by polls but am instead monitoring sentiment. Romney has promised change and that has certainly resonated with the population who have struggled with debt and high cost of living expenses during Obama’s Presidency, but the question remains can Romney deliver on those promises and secondly doe’s America really want change at this time.
    Romney may have compromised himself with that covertly recorded speech: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/full-transcript-mitt-romney-secret-video
    That speech may in the final analysis cost him the top job.

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  15. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    KIA – I find your analysis compelling. I was recently in the US, but upstate NY and New England. There were a lot of Obama signs. Many of my right wing friends in the US believe Romney might do it, but none could offer a picture of how that happens, so I’d written it off as wishful thinking on their part. Your analysis is more detailed and believable.

    Nonetheless, my gut is still telling me Obama, and probably that we won’t have a result today (or perhaps even this week). Your state by state analysis gives me something to follow though as to what needs to happen for Romney to get there.

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  16. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Fox seems to have earlier results than google and WP. Looks like Virginia is going to Romney. Florida slightly leaning to Obama.

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  17. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Max Keiser Report
    Voters in the US state of Arizona have been directed to the wrong polling stations by robo-calls, and voters in Pinellas County, Florida have received automated calls mistakenly informing them that Election Day is on Wednesday.

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  18. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Romney behind in Florida

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  19. Paul1 (33 comments) says:

    If Romney loses Florida it is over but I think he will come through.

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  20. cha (3,919 comments) says:

    http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/

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  21. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    florida aint looking flash… the 3% gap seems to be holding. with 28% counted i think romney is screwed.

    unless theres some geographical thing like – the nothern part of florida isnt counted yet and they go GOP usually..

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  22. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Florida just closed right up again dime

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  23. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    I heard the later results in Florida are predicted to break for Romney dime.

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  24. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    So what about Jeb Bush

    all the voters who were blacklisted by Jeb Bush in Florida for W probably still can’t vote . Romney should win Florida

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  25. cha (3,919 comments) says:

    http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/scenarios

    Obama has 431 ways to win Romney has 76 ways to win

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  26. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The CNN exit poll for Ohio is 51-48% for Obama.

    So this going to be close, but Romney has to do well in the other up for grab states to win.

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  27. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Cha: that quote was to inform us of how partisan NY Times is? :-)

    My view is that if KIA is right and the polls oversampled dems, that works in Romney’s favour. Many of the Dem voters won’t turn up if they think Obama’s won anyway. The Republicans tend to be more of the “doing my duty” type, they’ll turn up and vote even if they think Romney won’t win (or, they’ll be watching Fox and think he’s going to win even though the rest of the media called it for Obama).

    In short, I think it benefits Romney a little bit if it’s seen as close but going to Obama. If those polls are actually just a little bit out, that could swing it.

    @SPC: would those exit polls be subject tot he same sampling error that KIA reports?

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  28. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Florida is all over the place, now back to a 4 point advantage for Obama.

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  29. noskire (837 comments) says:

    Romney now trading at $.15 on iPredict.

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  30. James Stephenson (2,135 comments) says:

    I’m not getting how they can call a result (eg SC for Romney) on 1% of the vote counted and neck-and-neck so far.

    At least I can now confidently place Ohio on a map of the US.

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  31. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    It’s 50 to 48% to Obama in Florida based on exit polls of local media.

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  32. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Yep, I just bought another bunch of them noskire

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  33. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    PaulL, I doubt it, but there is a risk of another flaw in their own polling AND one can note that exit polls were not reflected in some key state results in past races.

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  34. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    “all the voters who were blacklisted by Jeb Bush in Florida for W probably still can’t vote” – he only did it cause the banks made him.

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  35. Short Shriveled and Slightly to the Left (784 comments) says:

    “I walked past the front gate of the U.S. embassy once and I tapped each of the steel bollards with my knuckle as I went.

    The security guard in his little bulletproof pill box by the gate gave me the dirtiest look I’ve ever seen.

    God Bless America

    I usually get a smile and a wave
    do you make a habit of tapping peoples fences when you walk past them?

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  36. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    http://todaysloser.com/tag/2012-florida-exit-polls/

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  37. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Romney losing big time in Ohio at the moment

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  38. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    jesus. Ohio not flash at all!

    is that made up of pre-votes? if not shes all over.

    heres the silve rlining though – if obama wins, he will be so unpopular in 4 years the GOP will hold the oval office for 12 years.

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  39. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Dunno about that Dime.

    For the GOP to win they have to drop the bible bashing crap and pick a candidate like Christie.

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  40. cha (3,919 comments) says:

    http://elections2012.npr.org/bigboard/president.html

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  41. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The head of Zogby (BBC live panel), says results to date suggests (emphasies at this point) Obama will win the electoral college.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20009190

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  42. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Florida back to a 1 point gap.

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  43. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    bruv – havent heard much bible bashing crap from the romney campaign. mccain wasnt a religious candidate. youre blinded by your religious hate :)

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  44. Tautaioleua (296 comments) says:

    Romney the great white myth.

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  45. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    “For the GOP to win they have to drop the bible bashing crap and pick a candidate like Christie.”

    Christie just instituted gas rationing in NJ

    I don’t know if he’s interested in Washington

    How long can a governor have tenure cause Christie will stay in his governors mansion for a long time if he can

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  46. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    People arriving in the line by 7PM will be allowed to vote – queues in many states at closing time.

    Last voter standing determination in the latest American civil war.

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  47. Paul1 (33 comments) says:

    Looks like Romney may fall short in Virginia as well.

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  48. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Florida just swung 51:49 to Romney

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  49. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Florida 1% advantage to Romney. Otherwise known as too close to call.

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  50. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Christie becomes a Democrat, what with his crush on Springsteen.

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  51. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Gotta note the age divide – the under 40’s for Obama and those over 40 for Romney.

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  52. Bob R (1,358 comments) says:

    ***Romney the great white myth.***

    @ Tautaioleua,

    What does that mean?

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  53. Tauhei Notts (1,677 comments) says:

    Obama in to $1.08 on Betfair.

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  54. Pete George (23,421 comments) says:

    Cha’s link above for results – http://elections2012.npr.org/bigboard/president.html – works well with this Paths to the White House chart:
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/scenarios

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  55. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Another Florida voting scandal on the way?

    http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/dcblog/2012/11/long_lines_and_snags_discourag_1.html

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  56. cha (3,919 comments) says:

    Oh dear.

    >Marcy Kaptur 72% 36,559
    Samuel Wurzelbacher 24% 12,372

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  57. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Obama: I Have A Concession Speech Ready

    http://www.secretsofthefed.com/obama-i-have-a-concession-speech-ready/

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  58. UrbanNeocolonialist (264 comments) says:

    google results page, auto-updated, probably not the fastest, but nicely interactive
    https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

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  59. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    what the hell is going on in Ohio?

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  60. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    or the head of Libya’s national election commission, the method by which Americans vote is startling in that it depends so much on trust and the good faith of election officials and voters alike.

    “It’s an incredible system,” said Nuri K. Elabbar, who traveled to the United States along with election officials from more than 60 countries to observe today’s presidential elections as part of a program run by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Your humble Cable guy visited polling places with some of the international officials this morning. Most of them agreed that in their countries, such an open voting system simply would not work.

    http://www.secretsofthefed.com/un-poll-watchers-amazed-us-doesnt-require-ids-to-vote/

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  61. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Only time will tell: http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/11/06/obama-i-have-a-concession-speech-ready/

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  62. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The Republicans internal poll the day before the election showed Obama winning Ohio. BBC.

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  63. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Fox is at it’s antics again…They’re calling states that are less than 10% closed!

    idiots, have seen some calling states at less than 1%

    Look at Texas though…no media outlet is calling Texas for Romney! and thats 40+% for Romney!

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  64. Lance (2,619 comments) says:

    Ha ha ha
    There were faux outrage at dirty Obama tricks with voting machines. Its all a vast conspiracy and all that.
    Now there are emerging stories of people claiming the same of Romney, complete with video

    Serious side show and fodder for conspiracy theorists.
    Back to the real news……..

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  65. wreck1080 (3,862 comments) says:

    Go Obama — financial instability in the US is great for the NZD.

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  66. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    @ SPC

    I remember 9/11 and the BBC announcing building 7 going down when it was still plainly in sight behind the reporter pffffff

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  67. Lance (2,619 comments) says:

    @wreck1080
    Yea, just ask F+P

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  68. James Stephenson (2,135 comments) says:

    Look at Texas though…no media outlet is calling Texas for Romney! and thats 40+% for Romney!

    Which just might be slightly related to the fact that the polls have not yet closed in TX…

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  69. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    “They’re calling states that are less than 10% closed!” so?

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  70. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    hinamanu, was the BBC report untrue or just calling the result early?

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  71. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    @ James Stephenson

    Polls are being called at only 1 %

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  72. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    yeah i have to admit, an Obama victory could be good for importing Dime

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  73. workingman (84 comments) says:

    @hinamanu , there are some states that are so obvious to be Democrat or Republican that they can be called straight away. You can call California and New York as Democrat before the polls close.

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  74. Paul1 (33 comments) says:

    They use complicated formulas to turn a state. Obama could be leading a state and they call it for Romney if Obama isn’t ahead by enough in key precincts. They also use exit polls. There is no way Fox News is going to win Romney an election by calling Alabama with 0% of the votes in.

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  75. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Go Obama — financial instability in the US is great for the NZD.

    Really? Like the NZD going higher against the USD and putting exporters out of business?

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  76. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Exit polls show voters blame Bush for the economy, not Obama, yet think Romney would do better on the economy than Obama (despite running the same policy as Bush – tax cuts).

    On Obama care, support for some but not all parts of this. Thus not supporting a simple repeal.

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  77. Bevan (3,965 comments) says:

    Fox is at it’s antics again…They’re calling states that are less than 10% closed!

    idiots, have seen some calling states at less than 1%

    Do you have any ire for CNN who have been doing the same?

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  78. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    “Do you have any ire for CNN who have been doing the same?”

    Trying to get live stream from CNN Situation Room

    too early I guess

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  79. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Damn Florida is close, Ohio moving closer as well.

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  80. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    The Messiah takes Pennsylvania (PA).

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  81. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    bummer. was hoping romney could fluke pennsylvania

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  82. Peter (1,687 comments) says:

    I’m picking Bill Clinton to win. You heard it here first.

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  83. Kleva Kiwi (285 comments) says:

    http://www.usatoday.com/

    live feed state by state

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  84. wreck1080 (3,862 comments) says:

    @manolo — stick to your armchair and listen to the experts.

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  85. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    From the Blue Max…. I have listened and learnt

    Max Keiser Report
    Happy election day! Remember, whoever wins, so does Goldman Sachs. Whoever loses, so does America.

    The Rothschilds & Rockefellers own Goldman Sachs. And Goldman Sachs owns both candidates. So either way, monopolist eugenicist robber barons are the Winners.

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  86. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    As seasoned as these two politicians are, can you imagine the anguish and anxiety being experienced right now by the Messiah and Romney?

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  87. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Kleva Kiwi – Fox seems to be ahead of USA Today as well, with Fox already at 35 million votes and USA Today only at 27 million. Not sure where they each get their info.

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  88. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Romney kaput.

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  89. pq (728 comments) says:

    I think Peter 3.26 is right, this will be an outright win for Clinton. Its a pity that Hillary will inherit a 21 trillion dollar debit in 2017.
    Obama increases in debt from 10.6 trillion inherited from Bush, 16 trillion now, expanding to 21 trillion

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  90. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The NY Times has Romney leading in Wisconsin, yet CNN calls it for Obama.

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  91. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    hinamanu, reid could have told you that (and if you bothered to read his posts you’d see he’s been telling us that for a long time)

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  92. Pete George (23,421 comments) says:

    Apparently:
    @BenjySarlin
    All other paths to 270 gone for Romney. OH, FL, or VA puts Obama over the top, period.

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  93. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    SPC – Fox has also called Wisconsin for Obama, even though they show a lead for Romney

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  94. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    yeah its all over for Romney. america deserves what they get :P

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  95. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Anyway, Romney is losing because you can’t have a president named “Willard” these days, even if he doesn’t use it as his real name.

    It’s the name. It fails the When Harry Met Sally name sexiness test.

    A WIllard can do your income taxes, if you need a root canal, WIllard’s your man… but humpin’ and pumpin’ is not WIllard’s strong suit. It’s the name. ‘Do it to me WIllard, you’re an animal WIllard, ride me big WIl-lard.’ Doesn’t work.

    “Mitt” isn’t much better (you’re the s**t, Mitt).

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  96. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    ‘hinamanu, reid could have told you that (and if you bothered to read his posts you’d see he’s been telling us that for a long time)’

    Reading his posts from now on…… But how come no one is calling him a conspiracy theorist ??

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  97. Reid (16,180 comments) says:

    OH is the critical one. No republican has ever won without taking it, and it looks like this now at RealClearPolitics:

    Ohio (18) 52.8-O 45.7-R (22% counted)

    FL too close but I’m picking Romney in Jeb’s state.

    VA is Romney’s.

    how come no one is calling him a conspiracy theorist

    Because I’m not. I deal in facts, like Prince Phillip is William’s real father. Anyone who can’t see that is blind.

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  98. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    So, it seems. The incompetent Messiah could be in for another four years of reckless spending.
    Watch the USD collapse.

    But as they say: Each country get the government it deserves.

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  99. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    PG: Obama will win all three, though Florida will be close.

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  100. Ed Snack (1,833 comments) says:

    Nailbiting stuff, about the only safe prediction right now is that it will be very close and may well not be settled today/tonight. Florida will, IMHO, go to Romney, the panhandle is always counted last and votes heavily Republican, it was those votes that swung it in 2000 after the initial exit poll based calls for Bush to lose.

    Ohio is real close, the early vote totals were “distorted” by the pre-election day votes, traditionally Republicans score more votes on the day, the issue being was the Democrat early vote enough.

    Predictions of a “landslide” either way (and they were strongest from the Right I’d have to say) are obviously wrong. The polls showing an approximate dead-heat are about right. Republicans hold the house and may even increase a little, but taking the Senate looks increasingly unlikely. The cost of selecting candidates like Aikin and Mordock (sp ?) and having them blurt out classic talking points that impact swinging voters, is plain to see.

    It will be a long time I suspect before I find out if I win a bit on iPredict or lose the lot.

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  101. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    “But how come no one is calling him a conspiracy theorist ??”
    I’m pretty sure he’s been called that a few times, mostly when he was posting as Leaping Jimmy.

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  102. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    > yeah its all over for Romney. america deserves what they get

    Oh so they should have supported an arrogant prick who has nothing but contempt for the working classes…

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  103. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Irish Bookmaker Declares Obama Win — Two Days in Advance

    Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/11/06/irish-bookmaker-declares-obama-win-three-days-in-advance/#ixzz2BV883DGM

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  104. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    ross69 – yes. rather than the guy who hates job creators that ay workers such as yourself.

    how long til we hit parity with the US dollar?

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  105. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    hinamanu – i heard it was close. finally 4 days ago the banks decided to give it to Obama.

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  106. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Why Romney is unpopular.

    http://video.msnbc.msn.com/martin-bashir/49715516/#49715516

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  107. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Oh so they should have supported an arrogant prick who has nothing but contempt for the working classes…

    I didn’t realise Trevor Mallard was standing

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  108. Zapper (1,002 comments) says:

    Given he has more votes than the Messiah, I’m not sure I’d be calling him unpopular

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  109. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Wall Street Won Before The Election

    In this episode, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss how Wall Street has won big time with zero interest rate policy and that the biggest winner, JP Morgan Chase, has seen its deposits increase by 46% from 2007 (pre ZIRP) to 2012 and yet its interest expenses declined by nearly 89%. They also discuss the Vomitorium in Florida where Obama’s ‘historic’ mortgage settlement may be used to plug government deficits or political pay rises instead of helping the 11% of mortgage holders in foreclosure. In the second half, Max Keiser talks to former Goldman Sachs banker, Nomi Prins, discuss the lost lessons of the Great Depression

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  110. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The Democrats seem to be winning the key Senate contests.

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  111. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Romney burned by own lie to Ohioans

    Rachel Maddow shows how Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s last ditch campaign lies are backfiring, particularly his repetition of a false claim about the auto industry to Ohions who follow the industry close enough to see the lie.

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  112. Bob R (1,358 comments) says:

    ***yeah its all over for Romney. america deserves what they get ***

    The future President as envisaged by Mike Judge in Idiocracy.

    http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/11/the-candidate-we-deserve/

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  113. Pete George (23,421 comments) says:

    Odd election, odd country – the result may be known before voting has finished.

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  114. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Al Capone, a character similar to him, would win it for the Democrats too: http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Jesse-Jackson-Jr-Wins-Reelection–175717941.html?dr t

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  115. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    is Romney on track to win the popular vote? or will california bring him in?

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  116. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    A weasel meets his comeuppance: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/scott-brown-election-results-2012_n_2049629.html

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  117. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    > Romney burned by own lie to Ohioans

    Yeah the guy is a fraud. Apart from Romney, who thinks that being in the middle class means earning $200 – 250k? I guess when you’ve inherited a lot of wealth, you can get a false sense of your own importance and lose touch with reality.

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  118. hmmokrightitis (1,579 comments) says:

    “Oh so they should have supported an arrogant prick who has nothing but contempt for the working classes…”

    Ha, who knew youre name was on the ballot eh ross?

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  119. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    @dime: California et. al. will reverse it I should think, yes.

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  120. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    “I guess when you’ve inherited a lot of wealth, you can get a false sense of your own importance and lose touch with reality.”

    yeah. he inherited a shit load of money after he was already rich (self made). he donated all the money he earned from his dad.

    god forbid a nasty little lefty gives a right winger some credit. you really are a fuck wit

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  121. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    if Romney does win the popular vote but loses the election, i pray to god the right dont become whiny little bitches like the dems did.

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  122. hmmokrightitis (1,579 comments) says:

    “Apart from Romney, who thinks that being in the middle class means earning $200 – 250k?”

    It does, despite what you think ross. I love how you do that, the politics of envy alive and well with wossy

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  123. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    The rape dudes both lost.

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  124. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Apart from Romney, who thinks that being in the middle class means earning $200 – 250k?

    That is the United States for you, not East Germany of the South Pacific.
    ross69, you as any other socialist, show your envy and little ambition. You’re condemned to be a loser your entire life.

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  125. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    “The rape dudes both lost.” – hopefully lesson learned for the GOP.

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  126. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    > he donated all the money he earned from his dad.

    You should be a comedian. Romney was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. But don’t let the facts spoil a good story.

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2012/09/mitts-forty-seven-per-cent-problem.html

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  127. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    so you hate him because he was born rich?

    do you hate obamas kids? they were born to rich parents

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  128. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Democrats are consolidating their lead in the Senate – it takes years to recover from this, given the 6 year terms and advantage to incumbency.

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  129. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Class warfare, envy of the rich, hatred for talented people and high achievers: all traits of a socialist mind that ross69 has in abundance.

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  130. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    SPC – well that sucks!

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  131. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Rafalca, Mitt Romney’s frou frou Olympics-bound dressage horse, nets the family a $77,000 tax credit per year. Since Normals who produce mere human children only get a $1,000 tax credit per child, it therefore stands to reason that Rafalca Romney is worth 77 human children. Certainly more than your entire family.

    Current TV provides a nice side-by-side of how much an American family can expect to spend on continuing to be alive versus how much the Romneys spend making sure Rafalca gleams and glistens like the handsome horse-prince he is. Some of the figures may surprise you. For example, did you know that the average family spends a little over $16,000 on housing per year, and Rafalca’s housing costs nearly $29,000? That Rafalca’s clothing costs $10,000 per year? That the Romneys shell out $15,420 carting that four legged Fauntleroy from place to place?

    Maybe the Romney’s horse IS worth more than most people.

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  132. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    jesus christ. youre a fuckin mess ross. so bitter.

    i guess if youre poor and have no way of ever achieving it gets to you. you probably have a boss 30 years younger than you. that would suck.

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  133. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    ross, perhaps if you could run real fast you might get a good job, with food and housing, as a horse.

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  134. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    > so you hate him because he was born rich?

    No, I dislike him because he’s an arrogant prick who has contempt for the working classes. He has no empathy or respect for them. I presume he didn’t want them to vote for him and it seems he got his wish.

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  135. James Stephenson (2,135 comments) says:

    ross, perhaps if you could run real fast you might get a good job with food and housing as a horse

    If he could stop spitting bile for five minutes, he might even be able to hold down a job mucking out stables.

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  136. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Reid, if you oppose the present banking system – do you support the Chicago Plan (the IMF paper in August).

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  137. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Ohio is evening out a lot. What’s going on there? Virginia still Republican. Is this still a live election?

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  138. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    You are right, this is not yet decided.

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  139. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    “No, I dislike him because he’s an arrogant prick who has contempt for the working classes.”

    And so he should. The working classes smell, use public transport which we have to fund, and are a drain on our taxes. They are also lazy and they want everything for nothing.

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  140. RRM (9,769 comments) says:

    Romney was a bit too Marxist for my liking anyway.

    (All that talk about an unproductive, lazy bourgeois class that lives off the workers, pushing everyone else’s quality of living down and ruining the country.)

    America is partizan enough as it is, the last thing they need is an outspoken little hater who worships the Marxist writings of Ayn Rand as gospel. Don’t be a hater…

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  141. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Where’s the spare 2% in Ohio? Fox says 50%/48%. Interesting.

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  142. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    PaulL: No. Virginia will go Obama (the suburbs around DC have not yet contributed significantly to the count there).

    Obama is already leading in Ohio, and this won’t change.

    Obamas lead in Florida will only increase from here as well.

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  143. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    lefty: you know this how?

    Ohio has drifted towards Romney all night. Looks to me they started with the pre-votes (so started off 70% Obama), and have averaged down as the election day votes are counted. If that trend continues, then it goes to Romney. Do you have some detail on which bits are counted that suggests it isn’t going to continue that trend?

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  144. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    PaulL: Sure – more dems will vote early, so you typically see the lead narrow as time goes on, yes. However, the trend in the percentage margin will not continue as strongly as votes are collected, as you need more and more votes to shift by the same percentage as the count increases (if you need to shift a 2% lead at 50% of the count, you’ll need to get 54% of the remaining votes, shifting 2% once 75% are in means needing 58% of the remaining votes etc.)

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  145. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    lefty is right that in Virginia city votes will close up the vote race there, and the south Florida votes (where are queues and is heavily Democrat) will come in late.

    But both those races are still too close to call.

    Romney still needs to win Ohio and he’s yet to get close enough – the firewall has held (the attacks on car plant bailouts made to win the nomination proved self-destructive – as did the attack on federal disaster relief once Sandy hit).

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  146. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    “Apart from Romney, who thinks that being in the middle class means earning $200 – 250k?”

    Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer for one, when he pointed out that a married nurse and firefighter in New York could easily hit that amount – at least that was his argument against Obama’s proposed tax increases. Ditto for places like the main cities in California.

    That’s one of the many problems with envy: it does not do math.

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  147. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Yeah, feels like it’s going to go Obama. But also feels like everyone went home when it’s still live – it’s closer than I thought it would be.

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  148. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    tom hunter: But the nurse and firefighter presumably don’t both earn over 250k, right – that’s their combined income (one presumes these are quite highly paid nurses and firefighters)? Thus would not be subject to Obama’s nasty tax increases?

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  149. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    I see that Bill O blamed the bliks…

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  150. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    @leftyliberal

    It is a combined income, but Schumer, who would be closer to the details than you or me, obviously thinks it would be assessed as a combine income. It certainly was for me and my wife when we lived in the US, and there have been frequent debates about the so-called “marriage penalty”, which I don’t think have been resolved.

    You can see the problem for the taxers of course; enable income splitting and …..

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  151. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The Florida voting story 2012

    “We are experiencing 3-4 hour lines to vote in Miami in the Brickell area. These long lines started this morning and are continued throughout the day,” he said. “These are working people here with jobs. What about the elderly – they can’t wait four hours in a line to vote. It shouldn’t be like this.”

    If they won’t move voting to a day off, they have to put in more places to vote.

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  152. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    It’s all over folks. Fox has just called Ohio for Obama.

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  153. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Speaking of my old home town, the following has to be in the running for an instant headline legend: Jesse Jackson Jr. Wins Reelection From Mayo Clinic

    The rest of the USA better get used to this: coming to you soon in every way – Chicago!

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  154. aitkenmike (94 comments) says:

    Fox just called Ohio for Obama. Its all over.

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  155. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Lessons for the Republicans.

    (1) Do not waffle about rape.

    (2) Do not rely on white people to win.

    (3) Candidates need personality, not personalities..

    Add yours.

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  156. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    At Chicago they are now celebrating winning this.

    MSNBC joins Fox, left and right agree.

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  157. Griff (7,226 comments) says:

    Commence the wailing and gnashing of teeth
    We was robed :twisted:

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  158. anonymouse (709 comments) says:

    Its all over rover, now pass the beer,

    Although the eventual total popular vote number might still go red

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  159. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Nah, Romney was the wrong candidate. Would have been a good president.

    Prediction is that the Republicans move a bit back toward the centre, tide out on the Tea Party a bit, and Chris Christie next time round. That’s not a bad outcome. Who’d want to be running things now – there’s only one direction things are going to go, irrespective who’s in charge. Next election there might be appetite for real entitlement reform, and a real debate about that.

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  160. Morgy (171 comments) says:

    Agree with you PaulL. Christie sat this one out well.

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  161. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Yep, four more years. Time for a beer.

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  162. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    PaulL

    I agree. Christie is the man to win back the white house. Having said that I think that there are three things that Christie has to do to make sure he wins.

    1. Lose a shit load of weight.
    2. Ditch the tea party nutters.
    3. Tell every “consultant” who wants to change his delivery style or the way he campaigns to go and get fucked.

    Christie will win well if he stays true to himself (apart from losing weight)

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  163. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Not so sure about whether losing is good for the Republicans, unemployment will fall – but yes the budget issues will remain as they are now structural and not just economic cycle (and allowing the Bush tax cuts to end won’t be enough).

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  164. Pete George (23,421 comments) says:

    Looks like we are in for another four years of someone moaning about a birth certificate.

    The Tea Party hasn’t been a raging success.

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  165. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    I agree. Christie is the man to win back the white house.

    He’d do more for his country by letting it use him as an aircraft carrier. ;-)

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  166. Pete George (23,421 comments) says:

    Peter —

    I’m about to go speak to the crowd here in Chicago, but I wanted to thank you first.

    I want you to know that this wasn’t fate, and it wasn’t an accident. You made this happen.

    You organized yourselves block by block. You took ownership of this campaign five and ten dollars at a time. And when it wasn’t easy, you pressed forward.

    I will spend the rest of my presidency honoring your support, and doing what I can to finish what we started.

    But I want you to take real pride, as I do, in how we got the chance in the first place.

    Today is the clearest proof yet that, against the odds, ordinary Americans can overcome powerful interests.

    There’s a lot more work to do.

    But for right now: Thank you.

    Barack

    Wow, he took time out especially for me. And I didn’t do a bloody thing for him.

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  167. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Agree BB: the weight is a problem. The nice thing about Christie is that he doesn’t want it all that much. A bit like Key – he won’t change himself just to have it, it’s more a “here’s me, take it or leave it” kind of deal. Less open to flip flopping, and if he gets through the primaries would be a great candidate.

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  168. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    … tide out on the Tea Party a bit

    Mitt Romney was the choice of the Tea Party? I know they eventually swung to him but I guess we’re going to hear endless replays of that argument going forward – assuming people buy into the left-wing argument that Mitt Romney was a right-wing extremist, like big spender Bush II, or Nixon.

    Thus is debate framing achieved.

    And I would not be too confident about Christie after his big hug with Obama to demonstrate bipartisanship in the days leading up to the election. As if Obama needed more help with looking Presidential. GOP primary voters are not going to forget that.

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  169. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    No Tom, I think some of the house and senate candidates dragged Romney down a bit, and I think he tacked aggressively to the right to win the primary. That was driven by the Tea Party. Romney was pretty centre from a Republican viewpoint, and relatively moderate. But he gained a reputation as a baby eater because of what he did to pander to the Tea Party.

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  170. RRM (9,769 comments) says:

    Reps were right about one thing though:

    When stupid shit about rape happens, yes it IS possible to shut that whole thing down! :-P

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  171. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    tom hunter: Thanks for that – most interesting! There does seem to be some crazy rules around married filing separately, married filing together, and head of household (not married, but paying more than half the bills) at least at the lower rates (they seem to be about the same at the top of the scale $388k).

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  172. Grendel (990 comments) says:

    >Today is the clearest proof yet that, against the odds, ordinary Americans can overcome powerful interests.

    thats hilarious. ordinary americans can overcome powerful interests in favour of other powerful interests.

    the mendacity of that man staggers belief.

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  173. gump (1,613 comments) says:

    I don’t really care who wins.

    Just as long as Paul Ryan doesn’t become VP.

    He’s the figure-head of the GOP’s War on Women, and too stupid to realise that Randism is a joke.

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  174. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    The Tea Party hasn’t been a raging success.

    I guess that’s why the GOP failed to take back the House on 2010 and failed to hold it this time and …. oh wait!!

    You’ve been hammering away on this since they first appeared in 2009: not a good look for someone claiming to want to hear from the people themselves here in NZ. I presume you think they’re owned by the Koch Brothers?

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  175. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    tom: And I agree with you – Mitt is certainly a moderate republican, and I think under a different environment (in particular, without the all crazies on his right) he might have even had a shot. He just failed to present a credible alternative.

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  176. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    It could be 332 for Obama if he wins Nevada (Republicans leading), Colorado (D lead), Florida (D lead), Virginia (tied) and Ohio (D lead). Yet Romney may win the popular vote.

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  177. Reid (16,180 comments) says:

    Well, at least we won’t have a war on Iran in the next year or so, after that, who knows. Netanyahu and Likud will be spitting.

    But this is bad news for anyone who wants the US to recover to what she used to be. I don’t think even the US economy can recover from yet four more years of the Indonesian.

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  178. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    and I think he tacked aggressively to the right to win the primary

    You could make an equal argument for pandering in terms of social issues. But in any case, it’s no different than Obama pivoting to the left of the Democrats to outflank Mrs DNC in 2008. I don’t recall any NZ centrists claiming that was giving in to the extremists.

    Like I said – debate framing.

    He just failed to present a credible alternative.

    Mitt’s biggest problem was that he was never able to argue an alternative. I pointed that out months ago when Perry and Gingrich attacked him from a classic left-wing angle on Bain Capital – and he had no articulated argument to defend it apart from talking about jobs saved or created. Hopeless for a supposed defender of capitalism.

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  179. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    gump

    I tend to agree with you. Anything that pisses off the Catholics (and Lucia Maria in particular) is fine with me.

    One thing I do wonder about though, if all the Catholics and all of the religious nutbar vote were praying for Romney does that mean that “God” is a Democrat or does it just prove that praying is a waste of time because there is no ‘God’?

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  180. aitkenmike (94 comments) says:

    BB. I think you will find a lot of Catholics voted for Obama, much more than the evangelicals. I could be wrong, but I would be surprised if it wasn’t something like 60/40 for Romney. There are a lot of liberal Catholics out there (although Lucia and her like would probably claim they aren’t really Catholic).

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  181. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    There is a lesson for the Republicans – if you want it all, then all is risked. Select someone who can win the race, rather than represent the favoured policy of the aging white male minority. Establish a policy towards the Hispanic that is more inclusive of their hopes for America, and a policy that demonstrates that women are equal partners in forming policy.

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  182. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Ohio seems to have closed to within 2,000 votes @77% counted, notwithstanding calling for Obama already. Are there some strongly Dem leaning booths yet to come in?

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  183. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    It’s now tied in Ohio, but Obama leads in Florida and Virginia. The popular vote lead is narrowing and Rove is saying Ohio should have a recount (Romney is yet to concede).

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  184. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Edit: apparently most of the outstanding booths are in Cincinnati, which is overwhelmingly Dem. As you were.

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  185. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    The election is going exactly as I predicted. Americans are doing what the media told them to do. They may have freedom of choice, but they do not have informed choice.

    The media campaign has been simple but effective. They have shamed people into voting for Obama. They have portrayed a vote for anyone else as a return to a racist and greedy America. No one wants to be aligned with that.

    People attracted to the left often have a weak sense of morality and relate to other people poorly. They look externally for guidance on matters of decency and principle, as they are unable to form those concepts within themselves. This is why they are so susceptible to media propaganda and constantly appeal to central government to impose laws enforcing there adopted morality. They can not imagine a world where people would do the right thing, unless compelled to. So when they hear it over and over that voting for Obama is the decent thing, they will do it like party faithful always do on the left.

    I am well aware that Obama is not really on the left, but that is the media spin. I also do not like Romney much, but that is not my point.

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  186. kiwi in america (2,495 comments) says:

    I was wrong – Hurricane Sandy gave Obama a bigger and longer boost than I thought.

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  187. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Nevada goes for Obama – that gambling magnate has wasted $100M.

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  188. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    I wish the Melbourne Cup was as easy to pick as this result.

    The US voters just about always give a second term even if it is just to confirm they have made a huge mistake

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  189. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    kia, now Republicans will believe in the politics of climate change?

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  190. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Pauleasterby, the Melbourne Cup is easier, a 6 year old horse won in 2010, 2011 and 2012. There were not many in this years race.

    The difficulty was picking the right 5 year old horse in the quinella. My quest for peace was better reflected in the US election result.

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  191. BlairM (2,314 comments) says:

    Rove says no

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  192. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    America is officially fucked…. :(

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  193. Scott Chris (6,017 comments) says:

    Well, looks like Obama has won. Commiserations to Mitt Romney and his supporters.

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  194. Matthew Flannagan (73 comments) says:

    Fox called Ohio for Obama at 5:19 yet there results show Romney in the lead at 5:55.

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  195. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The popular vote is now even, Obama looks likely to finish ahead now.

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  196. bc (1,364 comments) says:

    So is it time for all the excuses and conspiracy theories to begin, Fletch? (or continue)

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  197. Yoza (1,764 comments) says:

    “People attracted to the left often have a weak sense of morality and relate to other people poorly…”

    Kea, you are completely out of your freakin’ mind.

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  198. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Kea, most Republican voters think the bible (written by men) is the word of God and live lives based on the teachings and faith in it.

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  199. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Americans are doing what the media told them to do.

    Oh crap – and I say that as someone who has often argued the Democrat partisanship and left-wing lean of the US MSM. You’re entering into Chomsky territory.

    The bias lies not in “telling” people what to do but in what news is covered and what is not, and the subsequent damage or boost given to the candidate. As an example, right now the NE is no smaller a disaster, completed with FEMA failures, than New Orleans was, and Benghazi is a way bigger fuckup than Watergate. But in the media it’s the sound of crickets.

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  200. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Fiscal cliff, here we come. I seem to recall that if Romney elected, it got pushed until early in the new year. But if Obama, has to be solved before Christmas. Good luck with that!!

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  201. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The NY Times is calling Virginia for Obama – it could be 332 for Obama.

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  202. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    So Obama has 285 votes (wins in Nevada, Colorado and Virginia) without Ohio and Florida.

    Romney now leads in Ohio (but late votes will go Democrat). Both Ohio and Florida are close enough for recounts – but it will not matter.

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  203. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Nevada goes for Obama – that gambling magnate has wasted $100M.

    The banks and big business interests that backed Obama’s 2 BILLION DOLLAR campaign did not waste it. They know Obama will look after them……….. just like he did last time by bankrupting working Americans with multi trillion dollar bail outs (gifts)

    Interestingly Obamas first campaign was the most expensive in human history, but inspite of a recession, he has dwarfed it this time around.

    Of course its now pay back time. Look out Iran !

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  204. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    “Hurricane Sandy gave Obama a bigger and longer boost than I thought.”

    He would have won last week just as easily. I guess Nate Silver’s reputation is good for another 4 years – his numbers across the board are pretty damn close to the actual percentages.

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  205. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    I will enjoy sitting back and watching America learn what happens when you vote a president in on skin color and media glamour rather than ability.

    I bet the resident lefties on KB are cut up that they can not vote a dark guy in, just to show everyone how progressive and worldly they are :)

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  206. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Kea, there is always the Chicago Plan – that should please Reid and hinamanu.

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  207. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Oh god, I forgot – Biden will be VP for four more years.

    One heartbeat away.

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  208. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    “The banks and big business interests that backed Obama’s 2 BILLION DOLLAR campaign did not waste it.”

    http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

    Looks like about a billion each all up. Insane amounts of money by both sides.

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  209. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    as to one heart beat away – they forecast two new Supreme Court appointments in the next 4 years.

    Young women voters voted for continued access to contraception in their health care etc.

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  210. Reid (16,180 comments) says:

    Kea, there is always the Chicago Plan – that should please Reid and hinamanu.

    Why is that SPC?

    Looks like about a billion each all up. Insane amounts of money by both sides.

    Which is why I posted this earlier today on GD.

    ‘Two-party system an illusion, both funded from same source’

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  211. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    I have to say the right need to stop mixing (their) religious morality into politics. Homos, abortion, contraception are not key issues for the health of a nation and are not government business. They lose my support on those issues and have reaped what they sow.

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  212. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Young women voters voted for continued access to contraception in their health care etc.

    I know you’re a lefty but are you really this out of it? Contraception has been cheap and easily available for decades. Hell, you have charity outfits pushing free contraceptives on young women across the USA.

    It’s not even a theological issue outside of the RC church, as Monty Python demonstrated.

    Good play in the election as a wedge issue but really – let it go – unless you truly believe it of course.

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  213. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Reid, government supply of money at least brings this under the government – transparently accountable to the people.

    If you think it no better than the existing Fed Reserve of the private banks, so be it.

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  214. aitkenmike (94 comments) says:

    Hopefully this means we don’t need to hear from Dick Morris for a while. Nate Silver (and math) is coming out of this pretty well, despite being roundly attacked.

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  215. Reid (16,180 comments) says:

    Sorry SPC you mentioned the “Chicago Plan.” I have no idea what that is.

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  216. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    well said Kea

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  217. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    tom hunter, “apparently” ignorant of the issue of contesting including contraception in workplace plans under Obama care and related appeals to the Supreme Court. In extension of attempts to end public abortion funding and calls to ensure that future Supreme Court appointees will allow legislation action cutting off public funding for abortions, enabling restrictive law or outright making abortion illegal.

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  218. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Romney the great white myth.

    (2) Do not rely on white people to win.

    than represent the favoured policy of the aging white male minority

    I see the unification of America – a victory over bigotry and racial hatred – from electing a post-racial president has already begun on Twitter …

    Nicole @ricca_nicolee
    All our generation is saying about this whole election is .. Obama ! Fuck white people and Romney.. Like there’s more to it fuckers.
    7 Nov 12

    Ryan Lachance @DaLastChance
    OBAMA WON FUCK WHITE PEOPLE
    7 Nov 12

    Kiana Renee @__Cheer__
    Fuck white people. Not all of them. Just the racist ones and the ones acting pissy cuz Romney lost. Still love the other ones though.
    7 Nov 12

    Apparently “Fuck White People” is trending.

    Let the healing begin!

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  219. Reid (16,180 comments) says:

    SPC if abortion turns out to have been a decisive factor in the US at this moment in world affairs, the entire western world is completely and utterly rooted, since our citizens and our media clearly have no sense, common or otherwise.

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  220. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    @SPC

    If contraception means abortion to you then I guess you’re right. Perhaps it will be like the old USSR, where free contraception came to mean nothing but free abortion.

    Nice.

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  221. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The Chicago Plan was a response to the Great Depression proposed back in the 1930’s.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_plan

    It was revisited in August 2012 by some IMF economists.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9623863/IMFs-epic-plan-to-conjure-away-debt-and-dethrone-bankers.html

    There is more detail in a PDF file – just google Chicago Plan.

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  222. Reid (16,180 comments) says:

    Thanks SPC – so is this on Obama’s agenda, despite having more Wall-streeters in his last Administration than any other Administration in history?

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  223. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    tom, that was the problem, excluding the requirement for contraception to be included in workplace healthcare (and taking that to the Supreme Court to block Obama care) could have led to more demand for abortions – and this exacerbated the sense that old white men were writing rules and imposing them on women.

    Reid, one cannot impose desired outcomes on people by law. Not one income for each, nor one order of behaviour by criminal sanction.

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  224. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Reid, it does not matter if it is on Obama’s agenda or not – he has no solution to the debt build up, and it is an answer available for all heavily indebted states. If the bankers have their way for long enough they will hang themselves.

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  225. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Yes, we should not underestimate the benefit for America of giving Obama a chance to make one or two Supreme Court appointments. Given the likelihood on continued legislative deadlock for the next two years at the very least, SC changes are the president’s best chance of leaving a positive legacy.

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  226. Scott1 (501 comments) says:

    meh,
    Romney was always going to fall short – the numbers just didnt add up.
    Even without hurricane sandy he was loosing – he just lost by more. Was pretty surprised the Romney camp was confident considering how very unlikely their win was, but I guess one has to keep up appearances..

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  227. Inky_the_Red (748 comments) says:

    No idea what the result mean. I doubt in the medium term it will make much different.

    Neither candidate presented a policy platform (do either have any?) However both side look fairly much right of centre to me.

    Happy with the Senate result in Vermont

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  228. aitkenmike (94 comments) says:

    A nice speech from Romney to conceed.

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  229. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    … excluding the requirement for contraception to be included in workplace healthcare

    Only a tiny, tiny proportion of workplaces in the USA had restrictions on their health insurance providing the pill or other contraceptives to female employees – and those were mainly Catholic hospitals, universities, and the like.

    As I said, it was a clever wedge issue, but there’s no evidence whatsoever that American woman have lacked access to contraceptives over the last few decades. They were cheap and plentiful. It became an issue because Obama and company wanted to make it clear that the state rules over an individual conscience.

    That does not worry you of course, any more than that the Catholic leadership has said they will shut down their hospitals and charities if they are forced to violate this conscience issue.

    It’s a follow-up to the fight some years ago when Catholic adoption agencies refused to deal with gay couples – and shut down as a result. As one former head of them said, that was exactly what the religious haters wanted. The fact that they were good at their job of placing kids who needed adoptive care, and the fact that nothing as good has replaced them in those areas – counted for nothing. The crushing of an ideological enemy was the priority – and I think we’re going to see a lot more of that across the board after this election.

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  230. Mark (1,471 comments) says:

    Is there anything quite as bitter as a losing republican. The Palin interview on Fox is a gem

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  231. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    I don’t think there are really strong differences between the two. Business as usual but I,do feel sorry for the Americans starting down the rocky road to a highly socialised very inefficient health system like ours – where the pirpose has become to provide cushy jobs and to hide unemployment, rather than quality and cost effective health care delivery.

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  232. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Hail the Messiah, Saviour of the world.
    The oceans are starting to recede already.

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  233. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The why and the way forward according to the New York Times

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/opinion/president-obamas-majority.html?hp

    http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/a-liberal-fantasy/?hp

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  234. Steve (North Shore) (4,538 comments) says:

    Now if we can just see the original Birth Certificate without all of the bullshit that surrounds it

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  235. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    And the real winner was…fanfare…

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/06/another-election-winner-nate-silver/

    Actually, in the end, the Scientific Method won the day over ideological preferences (See the first post of the day, above)

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  236. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    LMAO so they finally let Palin out again? lucky us.

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  237. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    tom, there are states that already require this of workplace health providers and the Church goes along with this, why would making this a nationwide policy create any greater a “moral” difficulty. Maybe they were just hoping that when the issue went nationwide they could impose their view on these states. If so, they were playing out a political strategy and they lost. It was the attempt to strike down Obama Care via the Supreme Court on this that highlighted the Supreme Court appointment issue and thus energised younger women voters.

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  238. aitkenmike (94 comments) says:

    Bugger, been flicking back and forth between CNN and Fox. Highlights of the Palin speech?

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  239. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Is there anything quite as bitter as a losing republican.

    I presume you remember the 2004 Presidential election? Swings and roundabouts.

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  240. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    tom, there are states that already require this …

    Links please.

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  241. Cow Cocky (18 comments) says:

    Great result, now lets hope Kiwi’s have the same good sense in 2014!

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  242. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    I respect the democratic process and Americans have made their choice. They wanted him, they got him.

    I have remarked upon the overwhelming media bias in support of Obama. However that is plain to see for all those who care to look and the only people influenced by it are those who want to believe. I do not feel that Americans had many good choices and I have reservations about both candidates. But what I think does not matter. Democracy has spoken. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

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  243. bc (1,364 comments) says:

    So does the 1000 years of darkness according to Chuck Norris start now?

    With friends like Chuck, who needs enemies!

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  244. bc (1,364 comments) says:

    I’m noticing the T-shirts at Chicago HQ: “99 problems and a Mitt ‘aint one”

    Classic! One for longknives.

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  245. ChardonnayGuy (1,197 comments) says:

    Well, no US President since George H. Bush has served only a single term. I expected this, although the Democrats seem to have retained control of the Senate too, and the Republicans have maintained control of the House of Representatives. Speaking of which, I suspect the long, bruising bout of Republican primaries had something to do with the final outcome. One wonders who’ll be the elephantine candidate in 2016- Santorum? Palin? Ryan? Bachmann? None of them exactly fill me with confidence. And as for the Democrats, Hilary may be the most prominent contender.

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  246. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    Kiwis vote for Obama in 2014? I don’t think so, we’ll just have the same inept NZ idiots we always have like wussell, shearer and amnesia keys.

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  247. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    “The task of perfecting our union moves forward”

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  248. Griff (7,226 comments) says:

    At this point it all hinges on who is silly enough to involve whinnie
    I can not imagine a coalition with NZF Manaless and the Greens lasting a month yet alone three years
    More likely a minority national government for us in 2014

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  249. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    Groan, either way it doesn’t bear thinking about. there’s a lot worse than Winnie out there now. Really we need a right Green Party.

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  250. AG (1,823 comments) says:

    Not sure I’ve read a prediction as comprehensively wrong as kiwi in america’s initial comment on this thread … the wrongness of which was grumpily explained later on as being because of Superstorm Sandy’s bump to Obama’s campaign … an explaination comprehensively debunked by Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/nov-4-did-hurricane-sandy-blow-romney-off-course/) … the guy whose predictions for tonight proved to be pretty much right on the money … depsite kiwi in america claiming his reputation “will be in tatters”.

    Does this mean we can not listen to kiwi in america next time he tells us what is “really” going on over there?

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  251. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    A minority national government next time could work okay. The last thing NZ needs is a government with a mandate for radical reform.
    Back to the US though – a very good speech from the re-elected President.

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  252. bc (1,364 comments) says:

    Kea @ 7.30pm: “I respect the democratic process and Americans have made their choice”

    Yeah right.
    First you have been saying that American’s couldn’t think for themselves and voted for Obama because the media told them to. So American’s are totally brainwashed.
    Then people were “shamed” into voting for Obama. Whatever that means.
    Then you said American’s voted for Obama because he was black (ignoring the fact that if we follow that logic there are a lot more white American’s that would vote for Mitt because he is white).

    Doesn’t sound like much respect for democracy there.

    Kea:” But what I think does not matter. ”
    Well, you got that bit right.

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  253. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    AG
    Poor old tom hunter has been going on about Nate Silver for weeks now.

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  254. eszett (2,391 comments) says:

    @AG, yes it is pretty funny, that opening post by kiwi in america.

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  255. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Mickey Kaus has written an interesting article where he argues that he’s voting for Obama – and gridlock?.

    I say interesting because the standard complaint I hear from the Left about the USA is that it has a primitive system of governance whose biggest problem is gridlock. Kaus is arguing, as a left-winger, for gridlock.

    I read some comment earlier today to the effect that the USA has just spent $US6 billion to arrive at exactly the same place it started!!

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  256. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    What it all means for the US citizenry:

    Domestically, all good, especially if Obama can restore more, much, much more, progressivity to their tax code.

    Internationally, probabaly worse for us all, as Obama has really got a taste for acting the Godfather and ordering hits all over the place. Romney seems to be more the isolationist type.The caveat is that if Romney followed his instincts and let Bibi and the Bush II neo-cons run his foreign policy we would probably be gearing up for war even before the crowning ceremony!

    Say, tom, say after me: Nate Silver rocks!

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  257. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Poor old tom hunter has been going on about Nate Silver for weeks now.

    Days actually mm. And he got the 2010 election wrong, as he did the last British election, so clearly his model ain’t perfect. Perhaps it works best with US Presidential elections.

    UPDATE: Nate Silver rocks!

    UPDATE II: Say, Luc, say after me: I love my kill list!

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  258. eszett (2,391 comments) says:

    Looks like Donald blew a vessel or two:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

    Calling on a march on Washington and a Revolution.

    Salon.com has a few ones that he has already deleted:
    http://www.salon.com/2012/11/07/donald_trump_loses_it_calls_for_revolution/

    I wonder if Clint Eastwood will be having a serious conversation with an empty chair tonight.

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  259. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    I heard one of the CNN talking heads repeating the old quote ‘demography is destiny’. Any Republican beholden to the teabaggers faces a long, long road to the White House. Look for the republicans to move slightly away from the loony, abortion obsessed fundies and try to pretend they care for younger americans and latinos.

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  260. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    And tom, another thing, I’ll be keeping you honest over GM’s (hide the) decline (after turning in great profits last quarter).

    You have watch that Forbes rag – they can be worse than climate scientists!

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  261. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Fair enough tom. I’d never heard of him till your vitriol tipped me that he might be on to something! Your comments are among the most stimulating on this blog.
    Psephology is a funny game at the best of times. Care to make an early prediction for the 2012 mid-terms?

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  262. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    And he got the 2010 election wrong, as he did the last British election

    Got links, please?

    I get the feeling we may have differing interpretations of the word ‘wrong’.

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  263. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Luc Hansen worshiping at the feet of corporate giant GM? Your 60’s mates will be blushing with shame!

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  264. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    vitriol ????/

    Can’t help yourself can you.

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  265. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Obama wins Virginia and Ohio by 2% – 50 to 48%, with 1% of the vote to count, leads by 50 to 49% in Florida, with 2% to count. That makes it 332 electoral college votes. He is ahead 50 to 49% in the popular vote.

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  266. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    What a result for the left, I look forward to the NZ$ being worth more than the US$ soon, there’s some new toys I have my eye on.

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  267. Griff (7,226 comments) says:

    Kevin none on the right can agree with what green is. Agw is not {sarc}on the right We can not build new dams or make people more enviro-mental. Look at the moans about the carbon tax its a few shekels a ton or going to more efficient lounger lasting lighting. Half the loons want to ban 1080 even though it’s the only option to efficiently save the bush. If we want our lifestyle in New Zealand hunting fishing diving beaches and bush and clear water clean air we must close our boarders to immigration. Even more people puts more impact on the environment.The dairy industry is moving towards accounting for the environmental impact in its operation.We still need the ability to mine ,drill and burn. Its blue green except the watermelons have captured the “green” brand with their Luddite hate of modern society.

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  268. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Sorry tom. I withdraw that. Your mentioning Nate Silver led me to check out his predictions.

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  269. Ross12 (1,372 comments) says:

    Luc , I’d add to your comment about it being worse for everyone internationally. NZ has been suffering from a high US/NZ exchange rate which has really been due to the weak US$ –this bound to continue if not get alot worse. The big banks got their man back in so we cannot expect much change from that direction, so from an economic perspective those outside the USA should expect things to be as hard if not considerably harder.

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  270. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Nice to see Joanie Caucus helping Elizabeth Warren make it in Massachusetts.

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  271. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    tom, as I said there are some states that require Obama care requirements of all workplace providers now – see

    http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/health/state-ins-mandates-and-aca-essential-benefits.aspx

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  272. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    And Claire McCaskill holding out the despicable Todd Akin in Missouri.

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  273. coolas (115 comments) says:

    Kiwi in America:

    (Bottom line – Leighton’s bet with Whale is safe and Whale will be shouting! Oh and Nate Silver’s reputation will be in tatters!)

    You got it SO wrong. Zero credibility to you. Goes to show how out of touch you are. Time to come home?

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  274. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Luc

    You can read the critique here, which is actually by a guy who is quite complementary about Silver’s work – but still has issues with the whole approach:

    The situation is that many of Nate Silver’s attackers don’t really know what the hell they are talking about. Unfortunately, this gives them something in common with many of Nate Silver’s defenders, who greet any objection to his standing or methods with cries of “Are you against SCIENCE? Are you against MAAATH?” If science and math are things you do appreciate and favour, I would ask you to resist the temptation to embody them in some particular person. Silver has had more than enough embarrassing faceplants in his life as an analyst that this should be obvious.

    Subtlety. Nuance. I don’t expect you to appreciate that Luc so let me just clue you in on something. As the article points out Silver got his start building a probabilistic model for baseball – specifically fantasy baseball – and as I have a few mates in the US who played this I became aware of Nate Silver long before his move to politics. As you will see in the article he’s left that model behind – and it is being re-built:

    For most players in most years, Silver’s PECOTA worked pretty well. But the world of baseball research, like the world of political psephology, does have its cranky internet termites. They pointed out that PECOTA seemed to blunder when presented with unique players who lack historical comparators, particularly singles-hitting Japanese weirdo Ichiro Suzuki.

    You can imagine what such problems mean in politics:

    I hope, though I doubt, that Nate Silver’s performance during the stretch drive of the Massachusetts special Senate election will finally lead to him being downgraded from “All-seeing HAL-9000-esque quantitative wizard” to “Just another guy with a computer”.

    Armed only with the traditional maxims of psephological interpretation, which teach that a late polling break away from the incumbent party is a very unfavourable omen, one could have figured out ten days ago that repulsive Democratic candidate Martha Coakley was in a heap of trouble. Silver, with his revolutionary disregard for everything but the polling numbers, was still arguing as late as Thursday afternoon that Coakley was the clear favourite; he changed his mind at midnight that evening and acknowledged that Scott Brown had a puncher’s chance.

    And so it goes. But as I said, maybe the model works better at Presidential elections.

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  275. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    I predict at this early stage that Obama will not win in 2016 – there by giving me three out three regards his presidential fortunes

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  276. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    Sorry tom. I withdraw that.

    That’s alright mm. It’s nothing compared to the crap I’m getting on email from mates in the US – especially Chicago, which appears to be suffering the world’s first case of multiple-organism multiple orgasms!

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  277. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Some more info on the contraception and workplace health care component behind younger women voting preferences.

    http://newsatjama.jama.com/2012/10/11/jama-forum-reproductive-freedom-and-the-2012-presidential-election/

    http://www.nwlc.org/resource/contraceptive-equity-laws-your-state-know-your-rights-use-your-rights-consumer-guide-0

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  278. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Kea 6:32 “I have to say the right need to stop mixing (their) religious morality into politics… They lose my support on those issues and have reaped what they sow.”

    Do you know where that proverb comes from, Kea?

    Thought not.

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  279. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    kudos to those doing the exit polls in Ohio and Florida, they were accurate.

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  280. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    I am amazed at how some very intelligent people on this blog were so certain that Romney was going to win.

    Romney was never really ahead, got thrashed in two of the three debates and went soft on Obama when he should have attacked.

    Those same people seemed to overlook the fact that the highly biased left wing media in the USA were never going to let Obama lose.

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  281. Nostalgia-NZ (5,085 comments) says:

    Can’t be overlooked that Obama has been steering ship USA for four years already, the electors voted him back on that performance or at least by preferring him at the helm. Seems like a wise choice in tough times. It may also recognise that the electorate isn’t mired in foreign policy but rather the economy. A economy landed on Obama as sinking, whatever else may be said – he’s steadied the ship. He has been bringing troops home, perhaps accepting that adage about ones own backyard. He now has the mandate to build on 4 years work. The doom sayers can predict what they like, yet most people prefer to hit the racetrack with a proven driver, someone who has pulled up without accidents before.

    That Romney would feel the need to be so unsettled as to beat his chest about China, showed why some view him as a space cadet – I think that’s what the american people saw. Although it started a long way before that because he was inconclusive and looked to be willing to change his policies mid-flight. I think his perfect chance was to say that he was the man to take things further, get people working. That way he may have put himself at the top of the mountain, even while admitting that Obama had got the country near there but now it was the turn of someone to take it further.

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  282. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Rufus, first check it was a proverb.

    It was in Hosea, commenting on climate change denial and the cost of debt in the end time – Hosea 8:7 “They sow the wind and reap the (Sandy) whirlwind.

    For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind. The standing grain has no heads; it shall yield no flour; if it were to yield, strangers would devour it.

    Later Daniel, Mathew and Galatians use the term.

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  283. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Do you know where that proverb comes from, Kea?

    Thought not.

    I don’t care.

    Please include a “point” to your future posts. It make them so much more interesting.

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  284. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    SPC – a proverb as in noun.

    I should have called it an “idiom” to avoid confusion.

    Kea’s culture is steeped in religion. Born out of it. This is shown in the thoughts he has, the “common decency” he aspires to, and the language he uses.

    Kea hates religion. Kea doesn’t realise it, but Kea hates himself.

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  285. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    bc, clearly you are a simple soul who sees things in black and white.

    Don’t confuse yourself trying to figure out how sensible people think. Just accept that it is so.

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  286. tom hunter (4,665 comments) says:

    So what does this mean in terms of the big picture:

    – Two new SCOTUS justices as liberal as Kagan, because the Senate GOP will roll over. Commerce Clause abuse back on the table as a way of enabling the Federal government to do anything – and perhaps even the next great Left-dream – severe restrictions on the 2nd amendment!

    – Obamacare continues on. Costing is going to be fun, but perhaps it will lead – as many have suspected – to a complete breakdown of the private insurer system, resulting in the long-desired single-payer-system.

    – Higher taxes and increased spending. The GOP will fold on “bipartisanship”, just like it did in 1990, and with the same result with spending restraints and “cuts” merely a joke, while taxes increase. You think Obama will be more inclined to bipartisanship after this? Hell no, his ego was barely on the leash as it was. Debt at $20 trillion by 2017, $22 trillion? Benny and the Inkjets go full helicopter.

    – On the budget in general: you all saw the other thread on the budget: zero hope of stopping this train now (and the hope was pretty slim anyhow).

    – Full executive order ahead on the EPA across a range of issues. CO2 and fracking in the gunsights. Obama promised under-the-table stuff to environmental groups if they kept quiet and helped him; now it’s payback time and he can be “flexible”. Executive orders are terrible you say? Nah – only when it’s Bush. Gasoline at $5.00 per gallon and rising.

    – Expanded drone kill list. Mali is waiting, and they’ve got an Afghanistan-style war unfolding fast. Afghanistan itself falls apart faster as 2014 approaches, but everybody wants out, even the GOP – well, except for McCain!

    – Putin and Iran ecstatic. Full speed ahead for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and possibly Syria as well. Israel utterly alone – and still heavily armed. Let’s hope that Obama’s pivot to Asia-Pacific can produce some good results, because keeping hands off on the ME will not end well – not that hands-on seems to work either.

    – No changes to Social Security or Medicare. Obama has talked a good game but as Bob Woodward (among others) showed he has no negotiating skills that would enable him to work with the GOP in the House or the Senate. Status quo and a few years closer to the breakdown the Medicare actuaries have warned us about. Obamacare adds to the meltdown.

    – The 20 million looking for work (or not) and 45 million on foodstamps, plus all those on Medicare and Social Security? Not a problem because of the key phrase from Ghostbusters:

    “millions of registered voters”.

    And that’s it. Time to finally hit my summer book reading list instead of the online world.

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  287. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    some positive signs in Congress – Allen West out and Michelle Bachmann maybe as well. Does anyone have an overall take on the chances of the republicans losing more of those deadweight tea party folks?

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  288. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Tom – it’s going to be an interesting 4 years. I wonder if Obama will take America down faster than Romney would have. We’ll never know. Perhaps it’s better to get it over and done with, and rebuild.

    I’m thankful we live in NZ, which, though it has its own problems, is still a pretty good place to live.

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  289. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    I thought this was quite well written:
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/11/obama_the_moderate_republican_what_the_2012_election_should_teach_the_gop.html

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  290. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Kea – 8:59 – of course thinking “all religion is bad” is clearly not “black-and-white” thinking. But as you wish. I hope to be as sensible as you one day. And loving. And decent.

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  291. georgebolwing (757 comments) says:

    The three state initiatives supporting same-sex marriage (Maine, Maryland and Wasington) all passed and the initiative restricting marriage to a man and a women (Minnesota) failed.

    California initiative weakening three strickes law passed (although the initiative seeking to ban the death penalty failed).

    Decriminalization of medical use of marijuana passed in Massachusetts.

    Decriminalization of marijuana passed in Colorado and Washington, failed in Oregon.

    What with the Presidency and the Senate and gains in the House, plus these, I think the liberals had a very good day in the US.

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  292. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    tom
    I’d just take you up on foreign policy only. No one really expects Us policy towards the rest of the world to change with a presidential election. some habits, such as addiction to Israel are simply too hard to break. The undeclared war against Iran will continue. Putin and Russia will be handled in the same way as the yanks have dealt out to the Russkies since the 1950s.
    Let’s hope NZ pivots towards the Asia-Pacific region.

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  293. big bruv (13,665 comments) says:

    Rufus

    Kea is dead right when he/she says that all Religion is bad. I would go further and say that all religion is evil.

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  294. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    Yes griff I have talked my head off to the right trying to convince them that right wing politics and the environment are a perfect match. There is no way we can ever have a nice environment if we,are the third world country which is where we’re heading under the Luddites and anti business fanatics in labour, greens and,even national.

    Green policies should stop paying children to have babies, waste money on an inefficient justice system that encourages criminals, waste on tiny class sizes to give poor education to all, inefficient health services designed for the benefit of the employees, etc, etc.

    We need the money to protect the environment.

    Some talliwhacker said above….
    “A minority national government next time could work okay. The last thing NZ needs is a government with a mandate for radical reform.”

    Yes, let’s stay on the gravy train to the third world and never have a good environment for our kids. Good idea.

    Lucs right about one thing – we’re reasonably well protected with Obama at the helm from international threats at least. And of course because he needs the US to stay strong he can’t go very far left, because that never works.

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  295. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    funny http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2011/03/feed-your-family-on-10-billion-a-day.html

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  296. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    big bruv – that’s a very black/white sentiment to hold. Not very sensible to be black/white in your thinking, says Kea.

    What is your definition of “evil”?

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  297. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    tom “Time to finally hit my summer book reading list instead of the online world.”

    Enjoy, have a happy summer. If you start to miss the blogosphere smack your head against the wall a few times as a panacea.

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  298. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    funny 2.0 http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2012/07/you-didnt-build-that.html

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  299. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    RightNow – :)

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  300. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    The president’s obligatory references to the almighty somehow brought Gibbon to mind:
    ‘The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the roman world, were all considered by the people, as equally true; by the philosophers, as equally false; and by the magistrate, as equally useful.’

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  301. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    further to what mikenmild posted, these are also good.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/11/romney_obama_and_economics_the_economy_s_already_recovering_so_whoever_wins.html

    http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/10/obama_s_second_term_economic_agenda_higher_taxes_and_affordable_care_act.html

    http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/10/the_fiscal_cliff_don_t_believe_the_alarmism_of_bank_ceos.html

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/06/colorado_marijuana_legalization_initiative_clashes_between_states_and_feds.html

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  302. Lindsay Addie (1,321 comments) says:

    I thought that Romney would win narrowly but it wasn’t to be. Well done by the Obama campaign who seemed to have a good ground game in key county’s in a handful of swing states. It has to be noted that the total vote is reasonably close.

    As for the next four years it will interesting to see if Obama can reach out to the other side and be more statesmanlike. 2nd term Presidents have been a mixed bag for all kind of reasons. The GOP are going to have to do some soul searching about how to appeal more to middle America and to the Latinos etc. As mikenmild correctly notes good riddance to Alan West and hopefully Bachmann. The Tea Party mob will possibly be a one hit wonder that will vanish quickly. The conservative cause in the media isn’t helped by people like Shaun Hannity and Dick Morris.

    As for Romney he fought a good campaign but shot himself in the foot by being too cautious 2 weeks out when he was a serious shot at winning. That was before Sandy knocked him off the headlines for 5 days.

    One final observation, this really was a very bitter campaign. There was vitriol from partisans on both sides. The repeatedly calling Romney a liar (by the Obama campaign) and on the other side the dopey nonsense about Obama’s birth certificate were not proud moments in American politics. Politics should be a passionate debate about ideas not endless denigration of the other candidate by truly awful TV advertisements.

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  303. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Kea – 8:59 – of course thinking “all religion is bad” is clearly not “black-and-white” thinking. But as you wish. I hope to be as sensible as you one day. And loving. And decent.

    Where did i say all that?

    I can give you a few pointers though. Get your little desert cult, and its book, out of your life. You will find all those lofty goals will come to you easily without that influence. Try and forgive yourself (no prayer required)

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  304. dime (9,792 comments) says:

    bruv – youre starting to sound as bad as one of the religious people.

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  305. Ross12 (1,372 comments) says:

    The discussion over this result is similar to our own last election. Evryone was saying National won easily ( because of the gap between National and Labour was so great) but the forgot about how MMP works. So in reality National just sqeeked home.
    Similarly but in different way in the USA , Obama wins well but at the PV level there was overall very few votes in it.
    The vagaries of two different voting systems !!

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  306. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Kea – “I am an atheist, I regard all religion as equally worthless.”

    That sounds black and white to me Kea.

    You’re not all that different to religious people, you know. You just hate more.

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  307. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    I really cannot understand how people can be so blind.

    I mean, really… Why vote for Obama? I can’t understand it.
    He’s been totally useless over the last 4 years.

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  308. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Kea “Get your little desert cult, and its book, out of your life. “

    Kea, kea, kea. If YOU, the one who hates that “desert cult, and its book”, yet cannot get its influence out of YOUR life, what hope is there for me?

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  309. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Fletch – I know. Some see it, some don’t. You cannot MAKE people see.

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  310. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Yes I said that :)

    You are all a bunch of dangerous nutters. History, and current global events, show that as a fact.

    Renounce your imaginary god and set yourself free.

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  311. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/6/morning-after-reality-no-easy-answers-to-gridlock/

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  312. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Rufus I do not hate you silly religious people. I have friends from a variety of faiths, no problem. We rarely discuss the subject.

    I just get annoyed when people think their belief in a primitive cult confers a higher morality. Its especially annoying if that cult is christianity, given the vile stuff written in the bible.

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  313. Griff (7,226 comments) says:

    Were do you see Rufus. In your imagination?
    Imaginary friends are not a renowned source to follow as a basis for you whole existence.
    The voices have been known to lead people to do really bad things :grin:

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  314. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    I think it basically comes down to people are selfish, or simply do not care about the future; it’s an instant world and we live for the now. It’s like repercussions will be in the future, which is later, so it doesn’t matter for right now.

    People are voting along Liberal vs Conservative lines. Again, it doesn’t matter what the consequences are in the future. They just do not care for anyone/anything that represents traditional morality or values. They have been brainwashed by the media and the Hollywood machine.

    Barrack Obama is the Helen Clark of America.
    Same set of principles. Or maybe Obama’s are even worse.
    It’s not even Obama calling the shots. It’s that bitch Valerie Jarrett.

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  315. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    As Tom slinks off to some much neede reading, I’ll just point out that his posts today have been an object lesson in aviodance and deflection.

    Let us all learn from the master!

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  316. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Barrack Obama is the Helen Clark of America.

    Come on Fletch, that is going a bit too far. There are limits !

    Clark is right up there with Stalin and is a deeply evil person, with no empathy for her fellow man [sic] ;)

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  317. eszett (2,391 comments) says:

    Fletch (3,447) Says:
    November 7th, 2012 at 9:57 pm

    I really cannot understand how people can be so blind.

    lol, very funny, coming from someone who’s blind as a bat

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  318. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    Kea, you think Obama has empathy for anyone other than himself?
    He has proven time and again to be a thin-skinned narcissist.

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  319. eszett (2,391 comments) says:

    Fletch has been spending way too much time on Obama-hating echo chambers, no wonder his ears are ringing once he returns to reality.

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  320. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Kea, so on the one hand you have a go at me and say I think “black/white”, which is not reasonable. But cheerfully agree you do the same.

    Then you claim “You are all a bunch of dangerous nutters. History, and current global events, show that as a fact.”

    I’m glad you include “atheist” in that lot too. I thought we already agreed HUMAN are dangerous nutters.

    Kea, I too get annoyed “when people think their belief in an irrational belief system confers a higher morality. It’s especially annoying if that belief system is atheism, given the vile stuff done in its name”.

    You’re no different to any other human Kea. Even religious people.

    I’m still waiting for my share of that common decency that you so admire. Or is that reserved for offline relationships only?

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  321. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    I don’t hate Obama personally.
    I hate what he has done, is doing, and will do to America, which has repercussions for all of us.

    Why should anyone vote for him? What good has he done?
    The stimulus failed, ObamaCare sucks, Benghazi was a scandel, as was Fast and Furious, the Solyndra and other green payouts – the list goes on and on. He’s been a failure in everything.

    If the people of the U.S are so dumb, they deserve what they get. I do feel sorry for them though.

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  322. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Fletch, you might as well give up with eszett et al.

    My brother, who’s a great guy, sensible, got a good head on his shoulders, also love Obama. Can’t talk him out of it.

    History will judge D’Won. Maybe in 20-30 years time, eszett will look back and think “shit, Fletch was right”.

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  323. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Fletch – God is Sovereign. Doesn’t change if Romney or Obama rules the US.

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  324. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    They have been brainwashed by the media.
    Especially those people who get everything from TV or newspapers.
    Romney would have had more of a chance if the news media hadn’t been carrying water for Obama.
    If it were a Republican president in office during Benghazi, the media would have pounded them non stop, the way they did Reagan in the Iran-Contra affair – didn’t let up.

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  325. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    “This is the Achilles heel of a democracy. Politicians simply tax those who do not support them and give the money to those who do. Or give the money to those they would like to have support them. It is the end of the line. Game over.”

    Read more: HURT: Obama victory means four more years with no hope of change – Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/7/hurt-obama-victory-means-four-more-years-no-hope-c/#ixzz2BWocXhQq
    Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

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  326. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Fltech – Obama still has to answer for Benghazi. But I suspect they’ll let him off the hook, as with Clinton.

    Fast & Furious should have sunk him. Solyndra should have sunk him. Bengahzi, in a just world, should sink him. But we do not live in a just world.

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  327. eszett (2,391 comments) says:

    And another dose of reality for Fletch and Rufus

    Voters a continent apart made history Tuesday on two divisive social issues, with Maine becoming the first state to approve same-sex marriage by popular vote and Washington state becoming the first to legalize recreational use of marijuana.

    You two should get together and have long and deep conversation with that invisible imaginary friend of yours. Similar to the one Clint Eastwood had recently.

    Maybe you should fire him, doesn’t seem to be listening to you at all.

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  328. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    eszett -that doesn’t surprise me at all. Mankind slowly destroying itself. Been the same story for thousands of years.

    “You two should get together and have long and deep conversation with that invisible imaginary friend of yours.”

    You know, I think one day, we will. Though perhaps not while in corporeal form. I’m looking forward to it. Imagine knowing WHY stuff had to happen the way it did.

    Sorry, what was the point of your post? :)

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  329. Minnie1972 (42 comments) says:

    Yay!! So rapt Obama won. Many of my democrat friends in the US were particularly concerned about Mitt Romney’s stance on women’s reproductive rights. They are all now celebrating! :D

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  330. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    happy for you Minnie. Women’s reproductive rights is the most important thing evah(TM).

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  331. Shazzadude (526 comments) says:

    Kiwi in America “I posted this over at Whaleoil earlier today. Cameron as you know has a man crush on Nate Silver. I’ll take Michael Barone’s prognostications any day over Nate Silver’s http://washingtonexaminer.com/…
    He’s been at this game for decades and has dozens of accurate predictions under his belt.”

    A big lol at that entire post. Sorry to say, but I’ve seen many of your “predictions” and it’s safe to say you’re no psephologist.

    I believe Nate Silver has buttcheeks awaiting the planting of your lips.

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  332. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    commenter analysis on why Obama won when it seemed Romney was gonna. Emphasis mine.

    “Unfortunately, we have a lot of dysfunctional, self-loathing liberals, free-loaders and low-lifes concentrated in certain key welfare-oriented states that are forever to hijack our elections unless we make changes in the way we vote.

    The Country is doomed to succumb to its lowest common denominators in delegate-rich California, Illinois, and New York under the present-day scenario.

    Obama took the night because in the possible swing states, his team brought every street derelict, mental patient and wayward soul they could find to the polls, paying some off with cigarettes or alcohol or cash – and got them to press the lever on his behalf. His team simply rounded up more bodies – and it changed the significance of earlier poll numbers, which had given Romney slight margins in most cases under a lower-democrat turnout model.

    Remember, O.’s people started campaigning four years ago; it’s pretty hard for challenger candidates who only have a handful of months from nomination to the general election (after winning their primary) to compete with the level of organization of an incumbent, especially one who is a perpetual campaigner. Any dem can easily create a “firewall” with the resources O had, including ethnocentric voters and incumbency. Again, Mitt Romney’s team did an outstanding job with the scenario they were given.

    We are going to hear a lot of nonsense going forward from pundits and talking heads that amounts to Monday-morning quarterbacking. We will probably hear some lame conspiracy theories, as well, including those that blame this conservative or that conservative for some slight to someone or error in judgment, or theories that overly zero in on things someone may or may not have said during the course of the campaign.

    It’s not that we don’t have enough intelligent ethical Americans to make the right leadership choices based on character, integrity, and a candidate’s background and record; it’s that the people who can do so are simply not spread around the Country geographically in a way so as to be able to significantly affect the outcome of our general elections. The lowest of the low are deciding the fate of the whole.

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  333. Rufus (648 comments) says:

    Shazza – :) – does Nate know you’ve signed him up for this?

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  334. Feanor (40 comments) says:

    I like how the first post in this thread was the complete opposite of what actually happened. Nate Silver’s reputation is better than ever, and “kiwi in america” proved he has no grip on reality.

    How terribly embarrassing for him.

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  335. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    Really, it’s just a nice expose of the limits of political spin. Spin does not change what is, nor what will happen. It’s only of an attempt to influence how others see things, and that is a game that neither side can always win – and elections are a/the reality check.

    A more careful editing would have called it differently. IF Nate Silver is wrong, this is why.

    The same problem will hit both Christians and atheists in the after-life, God existing and God not having any preference for Christians.

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  336. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Luc Hansen (4,236) Says:
    November 7th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
    As Tom slinks off to some much neede reading, I’ll just point out that his posts today have been an object lesson in aviodance and deflection.

    He kicked your ass across the park like the wimp that you are Luc:
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/11/general_debate_4th_november_2012.html#comment-1043075

    And you ran away like a coward. Now you think he’s not coming back you’re suddenly brave again.

    Let us all learn from the master!

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  337. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    And Tom Hunter is one who was promoting Barone as the font of all knowledge, and maybe that was the source of KIA’s delusional post.

    Lots of similarities:

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-beats-obama-handily/article/2512470#.UJpCvYXIJZk

    I did originally think KIA deserved some praise for putting his money where his mouth is, so to speak, but really, it’s hard to think of a better example of utter, ideologically blinkered foolishness – well, maybe not that hard, sorry, after all, this is Kiwiblog, the home of willful ignorance!

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  338. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    RN

    I have my good days and my bad days. But I hardly think I can be accused of not fronting up. Especially to Tom. So much fun. Getting on with life is not running away, sorry.

    This day makes up for the bad – and, unlike you arses, I own up to my mistakes. Tom just digs a bigger hole!

    I think after all the crap Tom has put us through in the last few days, a break will do us some good.

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  339. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    I’m accusing you of running away (or not fronting up if you prefer) Luc. You’re a blowhard.

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  340. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Damn, I just checked your link. I did miss a beauty! Sadly, I can’t live my life at a keyboard waiting for Tom to post more propaganda. I was particularly busy Monday for the rest of the day and into the night, sadly.

    But do look up the definition of propaganda. That post you linked to reeks of it – factually wrong on every count – and I do notice he has been getting much more into personal abuse of yours truly lately. I wonder why?

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  341. RightNow (6,965 comments) says:

    Luc, that’s a poor effort. In fact you’re just deflecting, you blowhard.
    And you’re being a hypocrite too, your record of propaganda and abuse is all over KB.

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  342. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    How am I deflecting?

    I answered your query.

    This election has well and truly demonstrated just which emperors have no clothes.

    And one has already allegedly thrown his toys out of the cot to suck on his thumb instead.

    What a hoot!

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  343. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Clocking out now, RN.

    Just saying.

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  344. cha (3,919 comments) says:

    http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/house/18/#.UJpRv2_Mjzt

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  345. pq (728 comments) says:

    just for fun, read the first answer by Kiwi in America , giving reasons for a Romney win, and the evidence

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  346. DJP6-25 (1,353 comments) says:

    Rufus 11:09 pm. That’s a pretty good summation. The way forward is difficult to see.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  347. Jimmy Smits (246 comments) says:

    pq (351) Says:
    November 8th, 2012 at 1:44 am

    just for fun, read the first answer by Kiwi in America , giving reasons for a Romney win, and the evidence

    He did this four years ago going on about what a majestic and grand win McCain would get because of Sarah Palin.

    Sorry, deluded person.

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  348. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    Good link cha. Allen West was certainly among the most odious of congressmen. Hopefully he will crawl back under a rock.

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  349. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Minnie, are your US women friends destitute sluts than cannot afford to pay for their contraception?

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  350. Scott1 (501 comments) says:

    there should be a centralized register of election predictions.. so one can tell next time who made good predicitons last time.

    Sure we can google, but thats a lot of work !

    My theory is that elections are usually far more decided further out than betting odds or polls make it appear.

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  351. Fletch (6,233 comments) says:

    Allen West is demanding a recount. His campaign manager says –

    ” This race is far from decided and there is no rush to declare an outcome. Ensuring a fair and accurate counting of all ballots is of the utmost importance. There are still tens of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted in Palm Beach County and potential provisional ballots across the district.

    Late last night Congressman West maintained a district-wide lead of nearly 2000 votes until the St. Lucie County Supervisor of Elections “recounted” thousands of early ballots. Following that “recount” Congressman West trailed by 2,400 votes. In addition, there were numerous other disturbing irregularities reported at polls across St. Lucie County including the doors to polling places being locked when the polls closed, in direct violation of Florida law, thereby preventing the public from witnessing the procedures used to tabulate results. The St. Lucie County Supervisor of Elections office clearly ignored proper rules and procedures, and the scene at the Supervisor’s office last night could only be described as complete chaos. Given the hostility and demonstrated incompetence of the St. Lucie County Supervisor of Elections, we believe it is critical that a full hand recount of the ballots take place in St. Lucie County. We will continue to fight to ensure every vote is counted properly and fairly, and accordingly will pursue all legal means necessary.”

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  352. SPC (5,532 comments) says:

    The last word on “pollster geeks vs seat of their pants pundits”.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20246741

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