Key on Peters

December 8th, 2012 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Vernon Small at Stuff reports:

Prime Minister says Winston Peters’ dislike of him stands in the way of a deal between National and NZ First in 2014.

Mr Key said he expected Mr Peters to back a Labour government, despite his long-standing clashes with the Green party.

“I think that the argument that he really really dislikes the Greens, let’s put it politely, that’s all true . . . but he’s not overly enamoured with me,” Mr Key said.

He and Mr Peters had chatted during a trip to Samoa as part of a New Zealand delegation.

“I had a brief chat to him but realistically I think he will go with Labour . . . Even if we were prepared to change, and that would be a big if, he was always going with Labour . . . in 2008,” he said. “I think it’s just personal.”

My view is that Peters is strongly motivated for revenge on John Key for ruling him out in 2008.

There is an argument that if Peters holds the balance of power in 2014, the bigger revenge would be to keep National in Govt but reliant and subservient to Winston, rather than sacking him.

The factors at play, if Peters holds the balance of power (and assuming National does not rule him out as they did in 2008 and 2011) are:

  • Biggest party – Peters has always said he would negotiate with the biggest party first. Note that does not mean conclude a deal.
  • No of parties needed to form a Govt – better to be the No 2 party in Govt than the No 3 party.
  • Policy alignment
  • Relationships with leader and front-bench

The first two factors favour National, the last two favour Labour.

28 Responses to “Key on Peters”

  1. Reid (15,947 comments) says:

    Policy alignment

    IMO their policies are closer aligned to National than Labour. At this point and for the foreseeable future, long may it continue, Labour has for some reason determined to focus exclusively on re-capturing the lost Labour-Green vote, leaving many centre-left floaters to NZF. And while Labour continues to focus where it currently is, it will never address that dem, which is closer to National’s platform than to Labour’s.

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  2. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @Reid,

    Let’s see. NZF are:

    - anti-immigration
    - anti-foreign investment
    - anti-free trade with China
    - anti-mixed ownership of state assets
    - anti-National Standards
    - anti-charter schools
    - anti-imports*
    - anti-monetary policy (pro-fiscal intervention)
    - anti-employment (support $15/hr minimum wage)

    And you think their policies are more aligned to National??? You cannot be serious.

    * A policy of import substitution is, if not the death of export growth, certainly contra in reality to their expressed policy of export led growth for NZ

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  3. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    Has anyone ever read Michaels Laws’ book? It paints a very different picture and Michael Laws knew Winston very well at that time..Winston’s main criticism of Key is that he is a very inexperienced politician..Others may have heard more than this.

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  4. bringbackdemocracy (394 comments) says:

    There’s no way Winston will support a Key led National government.
    The problem remains for National, who will there support parties be in 2014.
    On current polling the Conservatives remain NZ’s 5th largest party and have the potential to take votes away from Labour, NZ First as well as National.
    Cup of tea Colin?

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  5. backster (2,079 comments) says:

    Dislike of the Greens will have nothing to do with it. The only consideration Winston will have will be Baubles for Winston, who gives him most will win his support…Not to different to the elecorate at large either, as we saw in the States Father Xmas wins elections.

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  6. hj (6,358 comments) says:

    bhudson (2,886) Says:
    December 8th, 2012 at 10:51 am

    @Reid,

    Let’s see. NZF are:

    - anti-immigration

    ………….
    the savings Working Group said:

    Savings Working Group
    January 2011
    “The big adverse gap in productivity between New Zealand and other countries opened up from the 1970s to the early 1990s. The policy choice that increased immigration – given the number of employers increasingly unable to pay First-World wages to the existing population and all the capital requirements that increasing populations involve – looks likely to have worked almost directly against the adjustment New Zealand needed to make and it might have been better off with a lower rate of net immigration. This adjustment would have involved a lower real interest rate (and cost of capital) and a lower real exchange rate, meaning a more favourable environment for raising the low level of productive capital per worker and labour productivity. The low level of capital per worker is a striking symptom of New Zealand’s economic challenge.

    http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/reviews-consultation/savingsworkinggroup/pdfs/swg-report-jan11.pdf

    “Immigration and tax breaks for investment in residential property are being cited as the underlying causes of steep increases in the cost of housing over the past decade.
    New Zealand now boasts one of the highest rates of home unaffordability in the world as a result of prices rising far faster than incomes, and the government’s Savings Working Group blames that squarely on the policies of successive governments.
    Although “the favourable tax treatment of property investment” accounted for about 50% of house price increases between 2001 and 2007, the working group said, there was also strong evidence that rapid swings in immigration brought about price-rise “shocks”.
    There was a sharp spike in immigration in 2001, 2002 and 2003 and, said working group committee member Dr Andrew Coleman, it appeared that property prices did not fall anywhere near as greatly when immigration fell again.
    The report added that there was little evidence that immigration boosted local incomes. In fact, the need to build roads and schools meant that net migration contributed to the national deficit. ”
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4622459/Government-policies-blamed-for-house-prices

    Just quietly I think many in Labour (not the Cunliffe faction) and the Greens realise this.

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  7. Redbaiter (7,628 comments) says:

    Pity National are a bunch of turncoat liberals who have turned their back on their founding principles, or they could start forging an alliance with the Conservative Party.

    However in yet another excellent example of why the Nats are so utterly fucking useless, instead of supporting the Conservatives, Key and his liberals have instead enthusiastically supported the public ridicule campaign of the progressive media and the far left, who have always been intent on short circuting any conservative political current.

    So now National’s ideological treachery (and strategical blindness) forces them to consider a pact with fucking Winston for fuck’s sake.

    Leaving aside that in the most glaring example of abject cowardice ever, they failed to take any meaningful stand on the MMP referendum, probably one of the most important referendums this country has ever held.

    Donors who give money to the National Party and jerks like John Queer Marriage Banks need their damn heads read. The National Party are so ideologically bankrupt that they have no rhetoric, no firm political position, no political objectives, and they are just there trying to do socialism better and warming the seats for Labour’s return, and that is all they ever see their mission as.

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  8. mikenmild (10,738 comments) says:

    Stop it Reddy, I’m starting to feel sorry for you.

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  9. Redbaiter (7,628 comments) says:

    You don’t feel anything other than selfishness loser, for its our children that will have to bear the burden of the mistakes of socialism, but you couldn’t give a fuck about that as long as you’re OK right now.

    Just let future generations struggle under huge debt burdens and a racially and socially balkanised society so that you can feel all smug and self righteous in your fucked in the head delusions today.

    I don’t feel sorry for you you simpering insipid dumbfuck, I feel sorry for this country because of what commie scum like you have done to it, and what the consequences will be for our children and their children.

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  10. Paulus (2,502 comments) says:

    Winston is likened to a prostitute.
    He will sell his, and his party’s body, to the highest bidder for the baubles of office.
    He will do so to every party irespective of policy, that to him being irrelevant.
    He only uses policy for his own personal grandisement.
    He has yet to pay back the $158,000 he stole from the taxpayers –
    Bloody hypocrite.

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  11. mikenmild (10,738 comments) says:

    Reddy, stop talking dirty – you are making me hot for the revolution.

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  12. Nick K (1,068 comments) says:

    Oh fuck this. Winston’s party is a communist dictatorship. It has the same nationalist policies as communist parties. It has the same land policy as communist parties (no foreigners can buy “our” land). On conscience votes, it’s what Winston says. On Horan, it was Winston who led with an iron fist.

    NZ First is the closest party we have in this country to a communist dictatorship party. You only have to read its constitution. It’s even more Red than the Greens.

    That Key would even consider a deal with him makes me sick.

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  13. krazykiwi (9,189 comments) says:

    I’m not too concerned about what Key thinks of Peters.

    It’s the 6.59% of NZers who would see this lying, self-aggrandizing, would-be dictator leading us that truly scare me.

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  14. Monique Watson (1,062 comments) says:

    Can’t see much to disagree with, apart from the gay rant, in what Redbaiter said. The big question to ask is, “How is that hopey, changey stuff working out for you”.

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  15. David Garrett (6,434 comments) says:

    Nick K: Well said that man..

    Russell Red: It’s a lovely day two weeks from Christmas…why don’t you go and stick you head in a mud pit…None nearby? Mix up a bunch of bentonite in your laundry tub…that’ll do it….

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  16. Kevin (1,122 comments) says:

    The main problem is that national has taken over from the previous labour government and occupiesmthemcentre left, allowing the greens and labour to move even further left.

    It’s very interesting that those treasury bitches now say they got it wrong about immigration. No consequences though, faaaatt salaries intact.

    Bollocks nick k, obviously upset at the possibility some government may close down our shady lucrative land export industry. Good on anyone who can do that.

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  17. duggledog (1,358 comments) says:

    Exactly Kevin

    After reading his biography, that’s all Tony Blair did, reach out to the middle ground, encircle it lovingly, distance himself from the weirdos, and govern. He was just a very good salesman, articulate and convincing, like Lange and now Key.

    I think looking forward to 2014, it would take balls but Key should continue to stare Winston down and refuse to work with him, then just keep explaining to the country if you truly want a Labour / Greens / NZF etc clusterfuck, then by all means vote for it and suffer accordingly. Meanwhile me and Bronagh will piss off to Hawaii!

    Everyone I know respected him for taking a stand over Peters, and we hope he will stick to it, because keeping promises is very unusual in politics. If he doesn’t, I can see National experiencing another Shipley / English-esque disaster post 2014.

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  18. hj (6,358 comments) says:

    Paulus (1,362) Says:

    He has yet to pay back the $158,000 he stole from the taxpayers –
    ………….
    oh come on That’s about half what Jenny Shipley gets a year for keeping an eye on CERA (making sure no one is loose with money etc).

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  19. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    ^^ hj defends Peters’ misappropriation of taxpayer money

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  20. hj (6,358 comments) says:

    Nick K (344) Says:
    December 8th, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    Oh fuck this. Winston’s party is a communist dictatorship. It has the same nationalist policies as communist parties. It has the same land policy as communist parties (no foreigners can buy “our” land). On conscience votes, it’s what Winston says. On Horan, it was Winston who led with an iron fist.
    …….
    we’ll at least the peasants will be able to afford a house and a farm..?

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  21. Rex Widerstrom (5,261 comments) says:

    Or he could try to demand that National change its leadership as the price of coalition. Wouldn’t be the first time…

    Though joana’s right, Winston’s real enmity is reserved for those National MPs – most now retired – who didn’t see the light and elect him Leader when he was still in the Party. They’re who kept him from the Prime Ministership he undoubtedly sees as his destiny. I think it’s part of the reason he gives Lockwood Smith such a hard time.

    Even in 1996 there were enough of them gone, or not playing significant roles, that he could swallow the rat of coalition with National.

    With the current crop it’s more residual dislike, which could easily be overcome if they dangled the right baubles.

    “Oh, but he doesn’t like me” from Key sounds to me like schoolgirl declaiming that the jock would never look twice at her, while hoping that it prompts him to do just that.

    What National supporters need to be asking is not whether Winston can be cajoled to support National – of course he can – but whether Key will resile on his pledge of not working with Peters.

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  22. bc (1,334 comments) says:

    You all seem to be assuming that NZ First will meet the 5% requirement in the next election. (Or will it be 4% by then).
    Either way, I don’t think NZ First hitting the benchmark is a given.

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  23. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Welcome to modern, corruption-free NZ politics. A preening, self-important demagogue and petty dictator, with a proven track record as a liar and appropriator of taxpayer cash, not only evades prosecution, or displays any chance of wishing to reimburse the taxpayer, can seriously be discussed as being the major power-broker who decides the fate of the next government.

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  24. Liberty (236 comments) says:

    Key should once again stand his ground and tell Peters he isn’t wanted.
    If the Pinkos scrap to together enough votes.
    National is better to sit back and enjoy the show it won’t last long.
    As there is no way in hell the motley lot of Labour/unions,Greens,NZF,and Mana
    going to be able to form government that would last the term.
    Just to many factions. Without a cold hearted control freak to hold it together.

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  25. hj (6,358 comments) says:

    ^^ hj defends Peters’ misappropriation of taxpayer money
    ………..
    No, my position is that it is the ones with lots of money (whose policies are skewed towards vested interests) that you worry about.

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  26. hj (6,358 comments) says:

    National is better to sit back and enjoy the show it won’t last long.
    As there is no way in hell the motley lot of Labour/unions,Greens,NZF,and Mana
    going to be able to form government that would last the term.
    …………
    the pinkos might do well to introduce a land tax: put a pin in the capital gain incentive and see how our position on immigration changes?

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  27. mikenmild (10,738 comments) says:

    hj
    That’s a fair enough point – that we should consider bigger issues than who abused electoral finance rules, or signed dodgy painting, or accepted ‘anonymous’ donations or inflated ministerial entitlements etc, etc. When all is said and done, these politcians are subject to the electoral test every three years. Pragmatic politicians, like John Key or Helen Clark, will play the cards they are dealt by the electorate to best advantage in securing power.

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  28. barry (1,317 comments) says:

    Oh – come on all you nitwits.

    Fancy Kery saying that Winstons dislike of him is a barrier – sort of like the kettle calling the pot black.

    Key started the whole thing by opening his silly mouth before the brain was engaged. He should have just shut up.

    And as for what NZF policy is – the only way to look at that is what he did when he was in power – and he did a bloody good job – especially as foreign minister.
    Winston is no idiot, and hes also probably the smartest politician in recent history.

    If hes in a king maker position after the next election one thing he wont take into consideration is what Key thinks of him or what he thinks of Key. He will be considering only what NZF can get out of the deal.

    And one other thing. People say that there are only two certainties in life – taxes and death. But actually there are three. The third is that almost everyone underestimates Winston Peters.

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