How the US electorate see the Republican candidates

538 looks at the favourability ratings of the Republican contenders. They tell quite a story.

First what do Republicans think of them:

  1. Ted Cruz +51%
  2. Ben Carson +47%
  3. Marco Rubio +46%
  4. Mick Huckabee +40%
  5. Carly Fiorina +30%
  6. Donald Trump +27%
  7. Chris Christie +23%
  8. Jeb Bush +13%
  9. John Kasich +7%

So all get positive ratings, but luke warm for Kasich and Bush, moderate for Christie, Trump and Fiorina and strong for Cruz, Carson, Rubio and Huckabee. This shows who may be best at turning out the Republican base.

But most Republicans will vote for the Republican nominee regardless. They key is winning Independents. What do they say?

  1. Ben Carson +5%
  2. Marco Rubio +4%
  3. Carly Fiorina +1%
  4. John Kasisch -1%
  5. Chris Christie -3%
  6. Ted Cruz -3%
  7. Mick Huckabee -6%
  8. Jeb Bush -13%
  9. Donald Trump -27%

So Carson, Rubio and Fiorina has slight favourability with Independents. Most have slight unfavourability and Trump has severe unfavourability. You really want someone from the top six to have a good chance of winning Independents.

Now what about Democrats. They won’t vote for the Republican candidate but the more they dislike them, the more likely they are to actually vote.

  1. John Kasich -4%
  2. Carly Fiorina -20%
  3. Chris Christie -24%
  4. Ben Carson -26%
  5. Marco Rubio -28%
  6. Jeb Bush -30%
  7. Mick Huckabee -34%
  8. Ted Cruz -37%
  9. Donald Trump -70%

Democrats really hate Trump.

And when you combine them all together, what do Americans say:

  1. Ben Carson +0%
  2. Marco Rubio -1%
  3. Ted Cruz -7%
  4. John Kasich -7%
  5. Carly Fiorina -8%
  6. Mick Huckabee -12%
  7. Chris Christie -13%
  8. Rand Paul -16%
  9. Rick Santorum -22%
  10. Jeb Bush -22%
  11. Donald Trump -25%

Trump winning the nomination would make Hillary Clinton the President.

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