Net favourabilities in September

538 has interesting data on net favourabilities of candidates in late September of election years. They have been (in order):

  1. Bush (2000) +24%
  2. Gore (2000) +23%
  3. Clinton (1996) +19%
  4. Obama (2008) +17%
  5. Bush (1988) +17%
  6. Reagan (1984) +14%
  7. McCain (2008) +12%
  8. Dukakis (1988) +12%
  9. Bush (2004) +11%
  10. Clinton (1992) +11%
  11. Obama (2012) +7%
  12. Reagan (1980) +6%
  13. Dole (1996) +3%
  14. Kerry (2004) -0%
  15. Romney (2012) -5%
  16. Mondale (1984) -9%
  17. Bush (1992) -9%
  18. Carter (1980) -11%
  19. Clinton (2016) -14%
  20. Trump (2016) -24%

Those in bold went onto win. This will be the first election that both the winner and loser will be unpopular.

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