Calculating Guilt

It is probably fortunate that I have never been on a jury as I do tend to jump to assumptions of guilt based on non relevant material. Take this case in the Waikato Times of a car dealer accussed of rewinding odometers.

My probability of being guilty goes like this:

From Hamilton +5%
A used car dealer +25%
Leading light in church: +15%
Former missionary + 40%

So I already have him at 85% guilty.

Talking of religious things, I heard a great quote in favour of secular states this week. It was along the lines of:

“Do you think you will ever hear a radio broadcast announcing that the athiest forces in the capital have held off an attack from the agnostic rebels?” 🙂