Hubbard Mathemathics

Rich at ObservationNZ has applied some maths to the Hubbard claims, and it isn’t pretty. Mayor Hubbard claimed, on the basis of his vibes, that a sister city arrangement with Hamburg would be worth $500 million of trade.

Now Rich has found that our total exports to Germany are only $894 million and Hamburg being 3.6% of the economy, would probably account for only $32 million of that.

Now further to that Auckland is, I think, just under one third of the NZ economy. So Auckland-Hamburg trade is probably around $10 million a year.

Mayor Hubbard’s vibe is that this will increase 50 fold to $500 million. All due to his visit. I think not. Let’s be generous and assume a 5% increase in exports to Hamburg from Auckland. That’s $500,000 not $500 million.