Labour behind by 25%

I generally don’t comment on every single poll on the blog, preferring to do monthly commentary in my newsletter, but tonight’s One News Colmar Brunton can’t be ignored. The last time any party made 56% or higher in a Colmar Brunton poll was in September 1990 when National got 59%. Labour last got 56% or higher in this poll in July 1987.

On the ON/CB results, the seats in the House would be:

National 70 (+22)
Labour 38 (-12)
Maori 4 (nc)
ACT 1 (-1)
NZ First 0 (-7)
United Future 1 (-2)
Greens 7 (+1)
Progressive 1 (nc)

Total 122

Based on the above, Labour will be losing a dozen incumbent MPs, but not to bring in new blood – just through lost seats. They would need to lose around 20 MPs to actually bring in significant new blood.

National would have the problem of having every single list candidate making it into Parliament. That would send a collective shudder through Caucus.

Now I should state the obvious. There is no way there will be an election result like this. ON/CB polls tend to be more positive than others, and a lead of this magnitude can’t be maintained. But when the lead ranges from 12% to 25%, that’s all very grim for the Government.

Clark’s preferred PM rating of 27% is a long way down from her high of 52% in June 2002. It is the lowest she has been in that poll, since she became PM. The last time a PM trailed by 11% or more was Jim Bolger in October 1997.

The budget hasn’t provided any immediate assistance to the Government. In fact the vindictive cancelling of the 2005 announced tax cuts may have contributed to the decline.