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September 29, 2007 11:42am by David Farrar

The race is close

Today’s Herald DigiPoll should deal to any complacency about the result of the next election. It is competitive.

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Comments (144)

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krazykiwi

better to ask the unions i would have thought?
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September 30, 2007 8:17am
Lee C

I am intrigued by his and others’ claims that Nat have a ‘secret’ agenda. It seems that the world and his wife, and then every man and his dog appear to know what it is. It must be the worst kept secret in parliament.

It certainly makes good ‘copy’ though to refer to somethng everyone knows about as a ‘secret’, really pumps up the Nat ‘sinister’ value.

The best kept secret has to be the little discussed aspect ot the EFB to ratify labours’ emergency legislation to validate their election overspend before its time limit.
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September 30, 2007 8:27am
Lee C

krazy I think the unions are really there as a finishing school for the reps to hone their public profiles and then get into parliament through the Labour party system. That is why the minimum wages are still dog-food money. But interestingly, MPs tend to get a hefty rise each year. Another badly-kept secret….
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September 30, 2007 8:51am
krazykiwi

does anyone have average annual wage increases since 1999?

a rather enlightening graph could be assembled
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September 30, 2007 8:54am
burt

“Why do wages remain so low that it requires a benefit from government to top it up?”

Because without a welfare dependent population the Labour Govt are sunk. That is why they introduced welfare up to twice the rich bastard threshold.

National need to campaign on how a Govt can claim to be sane when we have the following;

Rich = Earning > $60K
Poor = Earning
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September 30, 2007 8:56am
Lee C

Apologies for the last one it was off subject. What I came to say was my prediction for the next election is:
Greens up,
Winston gone
Hyde stays
Maori big up
Anderton out
Labour down but capable of forming coalition
Nats up and in coalition with the last cab off the rack – Maori party.

Regardless of result Key consolidates leadership of Nats.
Helen holds for a while then resigns for high profile university or overseas role, regardless of result – gone by 2009 Xmas?

This brilliant analysis was a mixture of despair, wishful thinking and gut feeling.
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September 30, 2007 8:57am
burt

Make that;

Rich = Earning Over $60K
Poor = Earning less than $120K

Fruit loop policies of a desperate Govt seeking the elusive 3rt term. I wonder what bribes they will throw out to try and win a 4th term for NZ’s first retrospectively validated prime minister.
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September 30, 2007 8:58am
Lee C

I think the electorate might take whatever Labour offers, then knife them at the polls. Why, because it would have dawned on most that Labour are only being ‘generous’ with what was already the electorate’s money in the first place.
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September 30, 2007 9:01am
burt

Lee C

The problem we have is that families who are on good money are likely to accept the bribes – Use the WFF to buy a new 42″ plasma for the games room – that kinda stuff.

Real Labour voters must almost choke when they look at their pay checks and think… wow people earning twice what I earn are getting benefits for …. for what… so NZ’s first retrospectively validated PM can get her 4th term.
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September 30, 2007 9:48am
Thrash Cardiom

better to ask the unions i would have thought?

Well considering that less than 25% of the workforce belongs to a union and that unions don’t actually pay the wages I think that asking the unions would be a misdirected question.
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September 30, 2007 9:57am
Lee C

well burt, I think what the voters need is a feel-good factor. While they are down inthe dumps, they will vote Labour because its like the abused spouse syndome isn’t it?

But I do not think National has anything to say that the voters want to hear, so their election campaign has to either try to get them angry or buoy them up with lots of goodies.

I think they should work at getting them angry and they should start like tomorrow! However the indications are that National’s leadership, try as it might to rack their brains for something, anything tangible with which to beat the government with, well can’t thing of a single thing…

If only there was an issue out there that they could use to really rile the electorate with….

Ah well , I suppose something will come along eventually.

Gosh, wouldn’t it be great if they could point the finger at the government and like expose them as a bunch of charlatans. That would be a brilliant issue to exploit. All you would have to do, is like go around the country and shout at people.

But sadly, Labour can’t seem to put a foot wrong. There is no great issue for National to exploit. Bugger!

Think, man think…..there must be some obscure piece of mendacity or double-dealing that Labour have committed which we could expose and exploit…

No nothing, ah well, in the meantime, I guess National could just keep putting out half-baked ideas which make them look like Darth-Vader in waiting.

I mean dammit!
If only there was an issue they could take to the voter something that only comes around once every generation… something which would hit every citizen in the country. It would be such a godsend for any half-astute political party.wouldn’t it? …. wait …what about?!?!

No. False alarm.
Nothing springs to mind.
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September 30, 2007 10:09am
roger nome

Suck it up Tories – 2008 will deliver another centre-left government, and it’s gonna be another 3 years in opposition. That means 12 whole years out on your arses. Pretty poor performance for the “natural party of government” really.
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September 30, 2007 12:57pm
Thrash Cardiom

Roger, a lot can happen in 12 months. I wouldn’t start crowing yet.
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September 30, 2007 1:20pm
Frank.

Lee C: “wouldn’t it be great if they could point the finger at the government and like expose them as a bunch of charlatans.”

Not possible. Labour can retaliate in the same way. For all their sakes it is better the status quo remains the same. Sure in question time and general debate, raise a hue and cry – sling the mud, and afterwards we will all go to Bellamy’s and drink to our stirling performances. All words – no deeds! Long may the system continue.
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September 30, 2007 1:34pm
Craig Ranapia

After the poll-driven farce that was the last go-around, anyone who was feeling particularly ‘complacent’ wasn’t worth taking seriously in the first place. OTOH, the usual suspects on the left (Roger Nome, Sonic et. al.) don’t seem to have cashed the reality check either.

Golly, looks like the next year or so is going to be deja vu all over again…
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September 30, 2007 3:14pm
Lee C

Except – I can’t wait to see their little faces when Helen announces her resignation.
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September 30, 2007 4:11pm
grumpyoldhori

Craig Ranapia

You seem to have missed my question.
I take it you are Maori.
As a Nat supporter do you believe the end can justify the means, when the race card is
played by the Nats?
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September 30, 2007 6:38pm
grumpyoldhori

Lee C

I damn near choked on my coffee after reading
how the Maori party will go with the Nats.

Hmm, go with a party who believe that skin
colour should make a difference in compensation paid.
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September 30, 2007 6:46pm
Robert Owen

Lee,
Adding together the Lab and Green Votes in the last poll =46.8 which is higher then the election result =45.8
Looking at the last few elections the Lab/Green vote is always between 45 and 47% ( you can see the logic of having a third party campaign attacking the greens)
With the full artillery that the Nats unleashed on Lab and thier mates on the Greens at election 05. The vote still held at at 45/46%
I see no reason for this to change.
Factor in
This particular poll general overstates Nationals support
Helen’s superior political skills (this week, a good example)
Cullen having the money to eclipse the promises of National
National not being able to announce any policy thats radically differs from Labour without reminding us of the ghosts of that “Nasty Shipley ,Richardson et e,l that most of remember and shudder
So Yes National has no chance whatsoever
As I have said before the only hope of power in an MMP enviroment is to split into two parties National Lite and National Right
Although National Lite would probably only have a dozen or so MP at the mo
ciao
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September 30, 2007 8:27pm
burt

This whole left right thing that is going on at the moment is a bit of a con really isn’t it. Both National and Labour would rather govern alone and perpetuating the Labour give the poor and National give the rich mentality kinda suits both parties right now.

The race is close because the bulk of the punters (voters) haven’t really worked out yet that they actually don’t need to vote for Labour OR National. There are other choices and the policies of either “major” party would be just as effective if implemented with that party as a minor coalition partner. Labour offering confidence and supply to the greens, National offering confidence & supply to the Maori party – you get the idea.

MMP eh. FPP carefully wrapped up in a proportional representation feel good factor.
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September 30, 2007 9:04pm
Lee C

so, grumpy, you believe in compenstaion. I’ll bet you $10.00 I’m right. (If I lose, you realise that means I’ll only have to pay you $4.50, of course) But if you lose, I want Taranaki back.
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September 30, 2007 9:41pm
Robert Owen

I kinda agree. There is desperately a need for a large centre party.
labour right meets national left. They are quite a few MPs from both sides who would find a home there.
At the moment the only leftish party one can vote for is the Greens and the conservative right have no where to go at all. which is not what MMP is all about at all.
So I guess it means as a left winger , I am just as frustrated by the choice available as someone on the right

You are right about people not getting a handle on MMP particularly with the electorate MP’s We can now vote for the best person regardless of the political affiliations with out effecting election outcomes (in most cases) how many people realise this ?
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September 30, 2007 9:44pm
burt

Robert Owen

Add to this that the major parties tend to campaign on “Two Ticks for us” mentality. Then they say that FPP is dead long live MMP.

So yes the message needs to get across that if the punters voted for the person their either most liked or though could do the most for them in their electorate and use their party vote to declare their political affiliation with policy mix.

It’s not a hard message to convey, I’ve never seen any advertising along that line of thinking from either major party.
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September 30, 2007 9:54pm
Craig Ranapia

grumpyoldhori:

I didn’t “miss” you question, I was ignoring it for a reason – because I don’t take seriously anyone who plays the racist card every time they don’t like what they hear.
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October 1, 2007 6:58am
grumpyoldhori

Craig Ranapia

You seem to be suggesting that Maori should
not question the beliefs of MPs like Henare.

If you believed the kiwi/iwi billboards, well and
good.
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October 1, 2007 9:17am
grumpyoldhori

Lee C

Nope, I believe compensation if paid, should be
the same for all for loss of land.

Maori party go with the Nats, will not happen
because they know come 2011, the seats would go back to Labour.
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October 1, 2007 9:21am
Pascal

grumpyoldhori: Hmm, go with a party who believe that skin
colour should make a difference in compensation paid.

Actually, you have that the wrong way around. At the last election the National Party was targeting their policies at need levels, rather than at skin colour. An example was the doctor’s visit policy, where it would be based on income levels.

The people targeting their policies at skin colour was predominantly Labour. And not in such a way that you would actually complain about it. See, justify for me how under Labour a region with a lower income with a predominantly caucasian population qualifies for a lower benefit than a mid-range income with a predominantly Maori population?

Is that Labour party policy targeting skin colour? Seems like you need to go read up a bit more grumpyoldhori. You’re only seeing it as a racist policy because the National Party was suggesting not paying a racist division of benefits.
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October 1, 2007 11:50am
Robert Owen

OF course the other way to make the race closer is for National to roll Key 4 months b4 the election and then get the new leader “bounce” in the polls.
The question is who ?
Maybe one of the last 3 deputy leaders
Nick Smith
Gerry Brownlee
or Bill English all of them have definite appeal.
I would go for Nick Smith myself
but hey thats me
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October 1, 2007 2:50pm
burt

Rob Owen

Nah, Labour will do their normal trick of consulting the polls and throwing lollies at the demographic that don’t like them. Eventually they will have pissed of all the groups they have tried to please and National will romp home. This might be 2008 now that thousands of teachers are now paying rich bastard tax.

I think that Dr. Ideologies biggest mistake was not lifting the rich bastard threshold this year, he’s now punishing more and more Labour voters. Pity he’s not smart enough to realise that if he left the threshold at 1999 levels long enough eventually minimum wage workers will be classified as rich.
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October 1, 2007 4:27pm
adc

So what do we reckon an ideal party manifesto would be then?

I’ll kick it off for laughs….

1. Bring back the DP for treason
2. Doing anything major (i.e changing electoral system, taking away rights of citizens, sale of state assets) without mandate = treason
3. Bring in a bill requiring “prerequisite real qualifications” for any sort of influential post. So no childless people making policies about families.
4. No punishing of the masses for the crimes of the few (punish the few instead)
5. More freedoms, but greater consequences for abusing them.
6. Treat the public with respect, not as idiots. That also means don’t lie.
7. Make it an explicit crime to lie. If it is already, then enforce it. Ruthlessly. This means for starters indict the LTSA for lying to us all for years. And the IRD. And every politician.

I’m sure there are heaps more ideas out there…
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October 1, 2007 4:35pm
Robert Owen

Burt He has has a Budget to come a possibly a few more “announcements” a bit closer to the election , like the interest student student loan thingee
Labour seem to be in poll position.

Key just doesn’t cut the mustard.

Seriously for Nationals sake, he needs to be rolled
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October 1, 2007 4:37pm
Robert Owen

Only lie if there is a absolutely no chance of being caught.
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October 1, 2007 4:43pm
burt

That’s what I was saying Robert.

He will throw lollies at the election. Budget 2008 will be the mother of all bribes as Dr. Ideology suddenly decides that for the first time (since they were polling below National) since 1999 tax cuts are affordable.

He will make a mockery of his previous position and the dim-bulb lefties won’t even notice that he’s just sucking up to the opinion polls.

It’s politics and it’s predictable. Nothing to do with Key – labour would denigrate any capable and successful person who stood against them.
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October 1, 2007 4:44pm
Robert Owen

No Key really isn’t politically experienced enough , nice enough guy but..
Can you imagine leaders debates ..you may not like Helen but she will make mincemeat of him
I agree however that Cullen will do just that
I would be really fucked off if I was on the right of politics but I’m a power at all costs lefty ( sort of)
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October 1, 2007 4:51pm
adc

the only way you can guarantee you won’t get caught out for lying is if you don’t lie.
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October 1, 2007 5:03pm
adc

PS I’d actually be surprised if Cullen offered tax cuts. There would be several problems for him in doing that:

1. reversal of dogma/hypocrisy issue
2. would just enter into a bidding war, since tax cuts are already on the cards with the Nats
3. Not a point of differentiation

I think he’ll come up with something else.
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October 1, 2007 5:06pm
adc

more likely to do something like increasing govt contributions to Kiwisaver. In line with their ideology, is giving more money back etc etc, plus it allows them to effectively keep control over it – forced savings rather than allowing people to spend money on what they want.
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October 1, 2007 5:51pm
Robert Owen

Yes ADC i agree probably kiwisaver and few bucks up their sleeves in about July if the polls are going badly
And whilst I agree with you about the lying sometimes it is just worth the risk!
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October 1, 2007 6:17pm
burt

Robert Owen

You are a contradiction.

Power at any price lefty ? Is there such a thing ? A lefty is a person who believes in the ideology of the left ? Is that Labour ?

A power at any price Labour apologist is something else all together. These people believe hollow election promises are valid to win elections, retrospective legislation is fine to cover up winning elections undemocratically etc etc.

A power at any price Labour supporter cannot by definition agree that telling lies is not worth the risk – telling lies is a requirement to be a power at any price Labour supporter.

So what are you Robert ?
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October 1, 2007 6:35pm
burt

Ooops, I misread what you said above Robert. If you think telling lies is worth the risk then you must be a power at any price Labour supporter. These people are good at telling lies about how Labour looks after the interests of the poor etc. Watching the poor get poorer while you say you are helping them is probably worth the risk for a Labour supporter.

A lefty on the other hand would quickly turn against a Govt that punished the voter base it says it represents.

There is a big difference between a supporter of an ideology and a supporter of corruption.
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October 1, 2007 6:48pm
burt

Robert Owen

One more thing. Since it seems you are a power at any price Labour supporter…. I said above “…telling lies about how Labour looks after the interests of the poor etc…”

Now the natural response form a Labour supporter to this would be: Are you saying National look after the poor… or National policies make the poor worse off etc…

I’m not actually interested in what other parties are as bad as Labour, my point was about Labour – not about how they compare to the parties you would tell lies about to make Labour look good.
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October 1, 2007 7:03pm
Robert Owen

Burt, Labour is a left of centre party (only just) which I obviously have problems with but such is my ideology I would tell lies (and at least I am being honest in this respect) if the alternatives in my view were worse which in this case is the NATS
And in this real world we know that all parties tell porkies
(Except the greens and you have to admire them for that)
It a shame my honesty is so compromised but i guess a good knowledge of how the poor have been shafted for a few hundred years would probably explain it
I am off to watch the left wing drama spooks
ciao
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October 1, 2007 7:29pm
grumpyoldhori

Pascal, you seem confused, all low income earners regardless of race get help.

But, when it comes to compensation for land
taken different rules apply.

Proof, easy, a billion dollars divided among
300,000 Maori give them around 3300 bucks
each.

While the farmers squatting on Maori land in
the Naki will get an average of a damn sight
more.
that is equal?
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October 1, 2007 9:46pm
burt

grumpyoldhori

This is an area the Maori party can make some major headway on. If there are 300,000 Maori people that are concerned about Maori issues then they should all vote for the Maori party with their party vote. Unite their voice through one vehicle.

They can vote for which ever party they want in their electorate but the Maori people of this country need to get the message that their vote split between left, right and indifferent parties is losing them representation.

Land is a natural issue to unite the Maori people.
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October 1, 2007 11:28pm

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