National would have struggled to win Maungakiekie off Gosche. However with his retirement, it should now be regarded as a winnable seat.
Most focus has been on the party vote polling, and what that means for overall seats in Parliament. But people should consider what a 20% gap may mean in terms of electorates held, if the electorate vote follows similiar trends. Labour currently has 31 electorate seats (including Mangere) and could be reduced to low 20s.