Specials Scenarios

There were 2,092,787 votes counted on election day. Remaing to be counted are 240,000 , of which around 32,000 are overseas votes.

The current St Lague formula allocation gives us the following placements:

  • Quotient 117 – Seat 57
  • Quotient 118 – Seat 43
  • Quotient 119 – National Seat 58
  • Quotient 120 – National Seat 59
  • Quotient 121 – Labour Seat 44
  • Quotient 122 – National Seat 60
  • Quotient 123 – Labour Seat 45
  • Quotient 124 – Green Seat 9

Now if the 240,000 specials follow the pattern of ordinary votes, then there is no change.

The question is how much of a difference is needed for seats to change. We’ll start with the easist change – quotients 120 and 121 to swap places – ie Labour grabs a seat off National.

For Labour to gain a seat off National

If National gets 0.16% less on the specials and Labour 0.16% more on the specials, then Labour get the 120th seat. So if National gets 45.29% on the specials instead of 45.45% and Labour gets 33.93% instead of 33.77%, Labour gain a seat off National.

For to gain a seat off National

If National gets 1.62% less on specials, and Greens 1.62% more, then Greens would get the 120th seat off National. Another scenario is Greens get 1.55% more and National and Labour lose 0.78% each.

For both Labour and Greens to gain a seat, and National lose two seats

If Labour does 2.51% better on specials and Greens 2.10% better, than they will take spots 119 and 120 and knock two seats off National. This would mean National gets only 40.8% of specials, Labour gets 36.3% and Greens get 8.5% for this to happen.

For National to gain a seat

This is all but impossible. National would need to do 7.4% better on specials and Labour 7.4% worse. So unless specials split 52.9% to 26.4%, National can only stay the same or lose seats.

For to lose a seat

ACT are in spot 114. Could they miss out? Well if they only got 1.62% of specials compared to 3.72% on the night, and Labour and National both were 1.05% higher on specials, then ACT would just love spot no 5. Tis looks highly improbable.

Could NZ First make it?

Only if they got 11.9% of the specials, on top of their 4.21% on the night. You can all relax.

I’ll look at how specials can change electorates in a later post.

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