General Debate 10 February 2009

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Pascal

I’m rather pleased to see what National is doing. Thus far they appear to be reasonably politically astute, making what seems like good decisions and generally acting like responsible stewards of our nation. And I’m particularly glad to see they’re not suffering from the meglomania that the Labour party did – they’re actually involving other parties and working with them when the policies makes sense. It’s rather refreshing!
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February 10, 2009 7:18am
getstaffed

If you are pedestrian using a shared foot/cycle path and you have your ears full of iPod then please DO be startled when a cyclist rides past you, but please DO NOT yell abuse.

Most responsible cyclists (and I number myself amongst this group) will both slow down call out to pedestrians, but if you choose to not be able to hear us then tough luck – be startled!
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February 10, 2009 8:05am
Buggerlugs

agree wholeheartedly getstaffed – i saw at the weekend the issue was canvassed in a far more violent manner in the Capital Times: http://www.captimes.co.nz/column/23/n/2216/ThrowabottleIdareyou.boss
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February 10, 2009 8:17am
Ratbiter

BBC NEWS
Parking ticket leads to a virus

Hackers have discovered a new way of duping users onto fraudulent websites: fake parking tickets.

Cars in the US had traffic violation tickets placed on the windscreen, which then directed users to a website.

The website claimed to have photos of the alleged parking violation, but then tricks users into downloading a virus.

Anti-virus firm McAfee says the Vundo Trojan then gets users to install a fake anti-virus scanner.

Vehicles in Grand Forks, North Dakota, were the targets for this new type of fraud.

Drivers found the following message on the yellow ticket on their windscreen: “PARKING VIOLATION This vehicle is in violation of standard parking regulations”.

The ticket then instructed drivers to visit a website, where drivers could “view pictures with information about your parking preferences”.

According to internet security watchdog The SANS Institute, the website then had photos of cars in various car parks around Grand Forks and instructed users to download a tool bar to find photos of their own vehicle.

But the tool bar was actually an executable file which installed a Trojan virus that then displayed a fake security alert when the PC was rebooted. The fake alert then prompted the user to install fake anti-virus software.

Writing on the SANS blog, anti-virus analyst Lenny Zeltser ran through the different stages of infection.

“The initial program installed itself as a browser helper object (BHO) for Internet Explorer that downloaded a component from childhe.com and attempted to trick the victim into installing a fake anti-virus scanner from bestantispyware securityscan.com and protectionsoft warecheck.com,” he explained.

It is thought this is the first time fraudsters had used real world solutions to try and trick users, although Mr Zeltser warned that it would not be the last.

“Attackers continue to come up with creative ways of tricking potential victims into installing malicious software.

“Merging physical and virtual worlds via objects that point to websites is one way to do this. I imagine we’ll be seeing such approaches more often.”
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/technology/7872299.stm

Published: 2009/02/05 13:51:10 GMT

© BBC MMIX
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February 10, 2009 8:18am
Ratbiter

Pascal – I agree! I’m a Labour voter but I like Key so far…

Getstaffed – Thank you for your care and attention, you’re a scholar and a gentleman! And I agree people who walk around busy public places in their own little Ipod or txting bubble probably need to ask themselves if that’s a sensible thing to be doing! I’ve lost track of how many people have walked into me while they have been engrossed in their cellphones!
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February 10, 2009 8:21am
jackp

Have you noticed since Winston Peters is out that it seems like things are getting done in Parliament in a much more respectable fashion? I think for those who voted for him because they think he adds life to Parliament should stop and think about how corrupt this guy was.
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February 10, 2009 8:25am
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Any one want to guess when New Zealand will finally lift itself out of the recession it is currently in?

Is 2009 feeling like a lucky year?
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February 10, 2009 8:34am
Glutaemus Maximus

“Is 2009 feeling like a lucky year?”

Afraid that recent information would suggest that the de-leveraging of so many derivatives mid year will see funders continue to run for cash as their capital rations get burnt.

NZ should fare much better than most, for perhaps 50 points of difference.

The smart money is late 2010. This is more a V than a U in terms of ‘Depression’. That is what it has undoubtedly become.

There are very many theories, but the certain one is that G20 are lying to themselves and us all!
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February 10, 2009 8:55am
mickysavage

Pascal

“I’m rather pleased to see what National is doing. Thus far they appear to be reasonably politically astute, making what seems like good decisions and generally acting like responsible stewards of our nation. And I’m particularly glad to see they’re not suffering from the meglomania that the Labour party did – they’re actually involving other parties and working with them when the policies makes sense. It’s rather refreshing!”

So 9 years of sometimes tricky minority coalition government and you think that Labour did not involve the other parties and work with them? Do you really mean what you have said? Have you checked the Government accounts lately and marvelled at what a good job Cullen did?

The really funny thing is that National not only campaigned on being Labour lite but in some respects are actually performing like labour lite, not as good as the real thing but better than Shipley or Bolger or Muldoon. But they have still done enough to turn the left away from them, climate change policy changes amongst other things being some of the most stupid things they could have done.

And Key is being Helen lite, making peace with Maori, respecting gay and lesbians, trying to do something for the poorest paid.

Some of you must be really thinking twice about who you are going to support.
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February 10, 2009 9:03am
dime

goddam left nutjobs. citing “climate change” as a reason for the fires in Victoria. they should be ashamed.
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February 10, 2009 9:09am
Glutaemus Maximus

That would be ‘Climate Arson’ then?
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February 10, 2009 9:14am
Bok

Mickey
You have to be taking the piss with this

“And Key is being Helen lite, making peace with Maori, respecting gay and lesbians, trying to do something for the poorest paid.”

Remember according to HEC there is no underclass, she liked spending time with a sheep more than Maori, refusing to acknowledge or join in their celebrations and the gay thing… What can one say.

Do you ever engage your brain before you make these statements?
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February 10, 2009 9:14am
Bok

Every new day here the news are just getting worse. This morning’s SMH has a photo of two beautiful young girls who died trying to save their horses. I do not agree with the death penalty, but by god this comes close as motivation to bring it back. And the whole climate change machine that is trying to jump onboard, shame on you, Remember that this is only just surpassed Ash Wednesday in 1983. This is not as the news media keep on saying, a natural disaster. This is murder at it’s most callous. There is nothing natural about it. I realize that the lives lost is horrific, but think of the terror and anguish suffered by the wild life before they were killed. The numbers must be staggering.
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February 10, 2009 9:30am
PhilBest

OECD, Glutaemus;

Even if there had not been an international crisis, we were in trouble anyway; Labour succeeded in putting us into recession entirely on their own; and the Nats have actually tied 1 and a half hands behind their own backs by promising to keep so much “Labour Lite” fiscal policy that is the cause of our low productivity. Until we face this reality, sorry, I think predictions of a turnaround at ANY time are optimistic.

I do not believe that ANY turnaround will come while “Working For Families” and all the similar stuff that is clogging our country’s economic arteries, remains unrepealed, and while the trees on the West Coast remain unlogged, and “progress” as a primary principle is not the paramount, rather than a whole lot of egotistical nonsense.
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February 10, 2009 9:41am
Helensphotogenicimposter

I know this is David’s blog, but I would just like to make a statement based on my experience overnight.

I work as an Emergency Department Doctor. For the sake of blogasphere, I will not say where. In my job I meet people from all walks of life. As it transpires, I was working overnight last night and I met a gentleman who told me he was on a sickness benefit. When I asked what was his underlying infliction was that prevented him from working, he told me that he was “sick of working”

So here I was, putting up with the inconvenience of working during the night, and here was someone manipulating the system because they could not be bothered earning an honest wage.

From my point of view, we all have problems. Turning up for work day in day out, week in week out is challenging. However, we all have to make an effort. It is time our government cracked down on sickness benefits. Many of these people are trying to find an excuse to not work. I would be happier if unemployment figures were higher and not hidden behind the banner of sickness benefits. I do not see why honest taxpayers should have to pay for people with slack attitudes.

On the other hand, I have met many people with various illnesses and disabilities who can hold down employment and live independent of the taxpayer. It is often about attitude and I applaud these people.

I am wanting to ask other readers if they would like to see unemployment properly accounted for and limit sickness benefits to people who genuinely deserve them.
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February 10, 2009 9:42am
PhilBest

dime (943) Vote: 3 1 Says:

February 10th, 2009 at 9:09 am
“goddam left nutjobs. citing “climate change” as a reason for the fires in Victoria. they should be ashamed.”

In Michael Crichton’s novel “Climate of Fear”; it WAS the lefty nutjobs setting off “natural” disasters to promote AGW. I hate to be so tasteless as to even quote this, but…..

It is not half obvious even to the likes of AlQaeda and Jemmah Islamiyah, how vulnerable the Aussies are on this score. THIS guy in “The Australian” is absolutely right:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25031389-7583,00.html

“……The third and only controllable factor in this deadly triangle is fuel: the dead leaves, pieces of bark and grass that become the gas that feeds the 50m high flames that roar through the bush with the sound of jet engines.

Fuels build up year after year at an approximate rate of one tonne a hectare a year, up to a maximum of about 30 tonnes a hectare. If the fuels exceed about eight tonnes a hectare, disastrous fires can and will occur. Every objective analysis of the dynamics of fuel and fire concludes that unless the fuels are maintained at near the levels that our indigenous stewards of the land achieved, then we will have unhealthy and unsafe forests that from time to time will generate disasters such as the one that erupted on saturday.

It has been a difficult lesson for me to accept that despite the severe damage to our forests and even a fatal fire in our nation’s capital, the political decision has been to do nothing that will change the extreme threat to which our forests and rural lands are exposed.

The decision to ignore the threat has been encouraged by some shocking pseudo-science from a few academics who use arguments that may have a place in political discourse but should have no place in managing our environment and protecting it and us from the bushfire threat.

The conclusion of these academics is that high intensity fires are good for the environment and that the resulting mudslides after rains are merely localised and serve to redistribute nutrients. The purpose of this failed policy is to secure uninformed city votes.

Only a few expert retired fire managers, experienced bushies and some courageous politicians are prepared to buck the decision to lock up our bush and leave it to burn.

The politicians who willingly accept this rubbish use it to justify the perpetuation of the greatest threat to our forests, water supplies, homes and lives in order to secure a minority green vote. They continue to throw millions (and no doubt soon billions) at ineffective suppression toys, while the few foresters and bush people who know how to manage our public lands are starved of the resources they need to reduce fuel loads.

It is hard for me to see this perversion of public policy and to accept that the folk of the bush have lost their battle to live a safe life in a cared-for rural and forest environment, all because of the environmental fantasies of outraged extremists and latte conservationists……”
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February 10, 2009 9:49am
Portia

People in the US are finally starting to ask where the money is coming from to pay for all the bail-outs.

Here is a piece from Glenn Beck of Fox News a couple of weeks ago called The Inconvenient Debt. He parodies Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth but mirth aside, it is very, very disquieting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNS8IY_Td14

Does anyone know what the chances are of China and/or the Middle East countries selling their stocks of US dollars anytime soon? And, if that happened, what would be the repercussions for NZ?
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February 10, 2009 9:52am
mickysavage

Dime

“godddam nutjobs”

If anyone thought that I was blaming climate change for what is happening in Australia please reread my post.

I did not refer to Australia. I said lefties are disturbed that this Government has undermined the country’s policy response to climate change.

This seems to happen a lot. Someone misinterprets something said by the left, puts a major spin on it and it then becomes reality for some.

Quite sad really.
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February 10, 2009 10:00am
PhilBest

Helensphotogenicimposter;

There was a case covered on this blog not long ago, of a woman “sickness beneficiary” who when arrested by the cops, needed 4 cops to subdue her, she was that strong and beefy…….
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February 10, 2009 10:05am
MyNameIsJack

Helensphotogenicimposter;
often when asked what I do – I say as little as possible. Is it possible your patient was being tongue in cheek? And anyway, who are you to determine his status for a benefit?
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February 10, 2009 10:09am
MyNameIsJack

had an interesting experience this morning-

I popped into my local homeopathic dispensary with 5 bottles of liquid. Told them I had a flood in the bathroom and the labels had come off, could they please tell me which product was in which bottle. Sorry, we can’t do that, they said, but refused to say why they could not do a simpe test to determine the contents of each bottle.

Asked my chemist mate to do the same, took him a couple of minutes to verify each bottle contained water.

Isn’t it about time homeopaths were investigated by the commerce commission?
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February 10, 2009 10:12am
PhilBest

Portia:

“…..Does anyone know what the chances are of China and/or the Middle East countries selling their stocks of US dollars anytime soon? And, if that happened, what would be the repercussions for NZ?…..”

This is a dicey situation; those sovereign stock holders know that if they sold up, it would affect the value of their “principal” disastrously.

This situation has just got steadily worse over the years; one wonders at the mentality of those investors, continuing to “double down”, perhaps in the belief that the US economy is completly bomb-proof?

Especially seeing the return on their new investments now, is so low.

It was easier to understand the Japanese investment in NZ, as NZ was paying such high interest rates compared to elsewhere, that they could easier risk exposure to movements in the currency against them. A Japanese who has been earning 7% for the last 5 years, is well ahead now.

Yet there is now so much Japanese money in NZ, that we too would have our currency imploded if there was a rush to pull it out. We live in interesting times. I feel that our leaders have not been wise to allow these situations to develop; political expediency is to blame for an awful lot of consequences yet to hit us. Sadly, short-term responsibility and pain are impossibilities; we are doomed to continually sow the seeds of our final catastrophic demise.
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February 10, 2009 10:15am
LUCY

Helensphotogenicimpost

The answer to your question is resounding YES!

Jack PO you dont know what you are talking about.
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February 10, 2009 10:35am
Helensphotogenicimposter

My name is Jack,

I cannot give much away about patients, but I have every reason to believe he was telling the truth. Also his reason for seeing me was a result of doing a very able bodied activity.

Actually, before you qualify for a sickness benefit, you need a proper medical assessment first. Anecdotally, I have heard stories of doctors being bullied and others taken for a ride in order to fill out a proper medical certificate.

Last year a doctor reported in anewspaper about the larceny of some people’s claims for medical disability preventing them working. For instance, one woman claimed severe asthma, but would not stop smoking and needed the extra money from the sickness benefit to pay for her cigarettes.

That said, there are many with genuine claims for sickness. However, I believe the last government were far too frivalous in moving people from the unemployment benefit to sickness and invalids benefits to make their statistics looks good. They were all to happy to hide the problem of underemployment and dependence.
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February 10, 2009 10:42am
Portia

Thanks Phil. I didn’t realise we were still so exposed to the risk of investors deserting us. The Japanese economy is dire too, so I wonder how long before those investors need to pull out their money to service their own debt at home.

We reap what we sow, as they say. And we are due a massive correction. Developed nations have been consuming voraciously, with money we don’t have. The whole system is out of alignment and needs to rebalance. It will be hard, and for some, it will be extremely painful. But it needs to happen soon or things are only going to get a lot worse. We’re dooming future generations to debts that they’re not responsible for incurring. That’s just as immoral as leaving them with a polluted, dangerous environment.

I worry that most of the governments around the world are buying into change-resistant demands from the electorate, eg “do anything, just so long as you make these problems go away and keep things the same”. Much like doctors who futilely prescribe chemotherapy treatment for a patient that they know is terminal, just so they can be seen to be doing something.

But taking action solely for the sake of taking action doesn’t make things better. And can, in fact, make things a lot, lot worse. Sometimes, we just have to accept that no human being is all-powerful and change is a-coming, whether we like it or not. I’m hoping that the government’s current light-handed approach shows that they have the humility to realise this. That said, it’s going to be extremely difficult for them to maintain this stance long term, because there are going to be a lot of demands once this wave fully hits us.
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February 10, 2009 10:44am
PhilBest

Portia (100) 2 0 Says:

February 10th, 2009 at 9:52 am
“People in the US are finally starting to ask where the money is coming from to pay for all the bail-outs.

Here is a piece from Glenn Beck of Fox News a couple of weeks ago called The Inconvenient Debt. He parodies Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth but mirth aside, it is very, very disquieting.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNS8IY_Td14

Portia, thank you for that. Thank God for the people in the USA that get this sort of message out, perhaps all is not lost yet.

I love THIS line from Glenn Beck in that video:
“Thomas Jefferson said that doing this to our children, is immoral, and I agree with him….”
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February 10, 2009 10:51am
MyNameIsJack

“Anecdotally, I have heard stories …”

Anecdotal evidence is what you have when you don’t have any evidence.

“his reason for seeing me was a result of doing a very able bodied activity”

Still doesn’t prove anything at all. Not all sickness beneficiaries are because of a physical injury, but I guess as a nurse, you wouldn’t know.

Lucy, fuck you too,
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February 10, 2009 11:02am
adam2314

” Any one want to guess when New Zealand will finally lift itself out of the recession it is currently in? ”

2011 just prior to the next election.

Am I being a bit to cynical ??
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February 10, 2009 11:16am
Portia

I agree Phil.

I also reckon the Jefferson quote could form the basis for a common political litmus test.

So that whether we agree about environmental issues, or law & order priorities or the merits or otherwise of the free market is by-the-by. What does matter is that nothing we do, or neglect to do, will make our children and grandchildren hate us.
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February 10, 2009 11:17am
PhilBest

Why O Why didn’t I know about THIS GUY long ago?

Steve Keen, Prof of Economics; University of Western Sydney

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Check him out on Youtube too. He is even on some with Peter Schiff and corrects Peter Schiff on some points.
I never heard so much common sense and sound analysis of the economic crisis and the situation in Australia. Lots of points very valid to NZ too. He is saying what I have been saying too, that if our statistics on debt and mortgages are worse than in the USA, we are kidding ourselves if we think we are not going to have at least as bad a crash on our own account.

I will be spending a lot of my spare time reading and watching this guy, for the next few days, and I recommend others do too.
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February 10, 2009 11:24am
mattyroo

Has anybody seen what this economic dunce is saying?

http://www.thestandard.org.nz/es-ist-mein-teil/

Jesus H Christ, where the fuck do these people get off? If any staff member started behaving like he is implying, I would show them the door quick smart.
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February 10, 2009 11:24am
LUCY

Jack. S/He is a Doctor not a nurse and I think s/he would know what s/he is talking about a lot better than you do. And language tut tut.
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February 10, 2009 11:37am
Portia

PhilBest (4303) Vote: Add rating 0 Subtract rating 0 Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 11:24 am

Why O Why didn’t I know about THIS GUY long ago?

Steve Keen, Prof of Economics; University of Western Sydney

Thanks for the reference. I had a quick peek and this passage caught my eye immediately:

“There is no way out of this crisis while we still in effect honour the debt that was run up during this speculative bubble. We either have to inflate it out of existence, or selectively abolish it.

“Since…I also doubt the possibility of causing inflation simply by driving up M0, the second option is the only one that I expect will work: at some point, to end this crisis, much of the debt is going to have to be repudiated.”
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February 10, 2009 11:45am
philu

“..# OECD rank 22 kiwi (1520) Vote: Add rating 1 Subtract rating 0 Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 8:34 am

Any one want to guess when New Zealand will finally lift itself out of the recession it is currently in?

Is 2009 feeling like a lucky year?..”

(heh-heh..!..thanks for the (bitter) belly-laugh..

..eh..?..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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February 10, 2009 11:58am
baxter

Helen’s Imposter………….I agree withyou but would suggest that honesty and truth needs to permeate through all Government Departments. Politicians could start by getting rid of their spindoctors and spokespersons and front up themselves when necessary.

…………………………My nephew was unemployed a few years ago. He went to WINZ to apply for the dole and was referred to a Doctor for a medical. The Doctor told him he was depressed and gave him a 30 day sickness certificate telling him to come back if he needed and extension. I think in his case it was the WINZ employee who was on a bonus to reduce un-employment figures.
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February 10, 2009 12:17pm
dime

mickey – my post had nothing to do with you mate. just crap ive read.. even a bit on ZB news.. bugs me.
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February 10, 2009 12:18pm
Inventory2

mickysavage said “And Key is being Helen lite, making peace with Maori, respecting gay and lesbians, trying to do something for the poorest paid.

Some of you must be really thinking twice about who you are going to support.”

No micky – some of YOU must really be thinking twice about who you will support. You see, John Key isn’t the rich prick who eats babies for breakfast that the left tried to paint him. There’s been a dearth of opinion polls coming out lately, but I’m picking that Labour will be bleeding support.
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February 10, 2009 12:19pm
getstaffed

The Doctor told him he was depressed…

Not just WINZ… because if the patient was so afflicted, the good doctor could prescribe some pills and improve his/her chances of be paid to attend some pharmaceutical company sponsored conference in Tahiti
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February 10, 2009 12:22pm
Portia

I just found this passage in John Key’s speech last week:

I am very conscious however that steps taken today to stave off the international crisis should not be devised in such a way as to undermine the economy in the years ahead.

There is a balance to be struck.

We simply must ensure that decisions taken now neither undermine the future prosperity of our country nor diminish the opportunities available to this and future generations of New Zealanders.

Because despite the wishes of some commentators and despite the gloom on the horizon, my Government won’t lose sight of our determination to make a lasting difference to the lives of New Zealanders, now and in years to come.

That means rejecting some of the alarmist suggestions that will be made to us.

It means being careful, and making decisions in a disciplined way.

And it means avoiding the temptation to spend any amount whatsoever, without regard to the trade-offs that expenditure may have for the future of New Zealand.

We simply must weigh up the fiscal costs of initiatives we take now against what those costs will mean for the Government books in the longer-term.

Because I know, and you know, that if we borrow excessively to look after the taxpayers of today, we will end up saddling our children with a mountain of government debt.”

We can only hope that JK remains in charge and can stay true to these principles.
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February 10, 2009 12:24pm
LUCY

Philbest & Portia thanks for those links and your comments. Fascinating but scary stuff.
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February 10, 2009 12:27pm
Right of way is Way of Right

John Key’s actions in the face of this economic crisis have been a model of direct action. Any fool can throw money at a problem. He’s realised that it is not the lack of money that is the issue, it is the lack of productivity, and THAT is what must be stimulated first.

It’s a bad taste comparison to make I am sure, and I know that people have died, God rest them, but if you lived in Victoria and you built houses you might be feeling a little business coming your way.
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February 10, 2009 12:52pm
freethinker

PhilBest (4303) Vote: 2 0 Says

Phil- Tony Alexander at BNZ commented a little while ago that Uridashi reinvestment was about 10% so the effect of 90% of the NZ$50-60Billion outstanding being used to purchase Yen would fuck the exchange rates for both countries but I reckon the many big issues have kept the NZ$ of the radar. When those foreign investors realise the size of the NZ defecit as a % of GDP – 8% & rising I expect the NZ$ will commence its journey down the Cresta Run which will probably provide the opportunity for NZ to export its way somewhat out of the depression cesspit – lets hope John/Bill see this and prepare the country to take advantage and not dwell on the negative.
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February 10, 2009 1:57pm
PhilBest

Thanks, Portia and Lucy.

I really must draw everyone’s attention to THIS “Dateline” program episode:

(Video and Transcript)

http://news.sbs.com.au/dateline/america39s_housing_crisis_557175

EXCERPT (but do read the whole thing)

“…..

GEORGE NEGUS: Steve Keen, Peter is actually living up to his name as ‘Dr Doom’, a doomsayer, but is the picture is bleak as Peter is painting it?

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: I think his nickname is ‘Dr Gloom’ and it’s not quite as bad as Dr Doom but, yes, the picture is in that direction. I certainly think that the idea that America has been living on IOUs is valid. Part of the American arrogance and the end of Second World War was to say we are the biggest, toughest, strongest country on the planet. You’re going to use American dollars for international exchange. What that meant was when other countries ran out of American dollars when there are running a trade deficit, particularly back when exchange rates were fixed, there were forced to devalue. They had to do something serious. When America ran out of American dollars, it printed more.

GEORGE NEGUS: So we don’t sound like a mutual admiration society here, what’s the solution than? If you guys are both convinced the Americans have created their own problem and now it’s flowing on to the rest of us, including Australia, Steve, what should they be doing?

PETER SCHIFF: I think the solution – the world needs to recognise that America is not the engine of the global economy. We are the caboose. Anybody can consume. Little children can consume. The key is to produce. The key is to save, not to borrow. And if America stops consuming and stopped borrowing, that’s not going to hurt the global economy, that’s going to help the global economy. The rest of the world has been living beneath their means so we can live beyond ours.

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: I wish that were true.

PETER SCHIFF: I think for the world the solution is to write off the US.

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: I wish Peter were right that the rest of the world had its act in order. The rest of the OECD doesn’t. It isn’t just America that been borrowing more money than it’s been earning – the whole of the OECD bar one country, which has France, has been having an increase in ratio of its debt to GDP for the last 30 years. So we’re all in the borrowing game. We’ve all made the mistake of confusing money generated by real production with money you can borrow from a bank. And that’s kept on going for so long that it’s reached the point now where that game is over. If you like, it’s the old “greater fool” philosophy. You make money if you find a greater fool who borrows more money than you did to buy the same asset off you and you get away rich and they end up with even more

GEORGE NEGUS: What do we do, Peter? If you are running either the Fed in America or the Treasury, if you had all the power that comes with the stroke of a pen or hitting a computer key, what would you do right now to make sure this situation didn’t get a lot, lot worse before it gets better?

PETER SCHIFF: There is nothing I can do. It’s got to get worse before it gets better. Unfortunately for America the only way to cure these imbalances is to suffer a severe recession. There’s no way round it. All the government is doing is trying to make the situation worse in the long run by postponing it. We need to stop all this reckless consumption. We need to have much higher interest rates in the United States and we will need to allow companies to go bankrupt. We need to allow real estate prices to collapse, we need to rebalance our economy. That can’t be done without a lot of pain.
But the rest of the world – somebody is saving, somebody is loaning us this money and there are a lot of consumer goods all around America. There are factories somewhere in the world that are producing this stuff. That’s real wealth and the world has that – we don’t.

GEORGE NEGUS: Meanwhile, the upshot of all of this, of course, is people, whether it’s in Australia with the flow-on to this country, or in America, where people are losing their homes, losing their life savings, losing everything that matters to them, the whole core of their existence. It’s a very human problem in the long run, we’re talking high finance here.

PETER SCHIFF: But they never had any life savings. It was an illusion to begin with. And they’re not losing places to live. The one problem we don’t have in America is housing. We’ve got so many houses that are empty. Nobody is on the street. They are losing the fantasy of home equity. So you move out of one house and you rent another one. Nobody is going homeless.

GEORGE NEGUS: Peter mentioned the Americans should in fact raise interest rates. We have just had a lowering of interest rates in this country. Are we heading the wrong direction?

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: No, no, no. The whole belief that you can manipulate the economy using interest rates has been fallacious. It’s been focusing on the rate of inflation, and believing there’s a simple inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of interest that means you can fine-tune the economy, totally ignoring in the background the explosion in private debt that’s the thing both Peter and I are focusing on.

GEORGE NEGUS: So, lower interest rates or not, are people going to lose their homes in this country?

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: Yes. The scale of debt is so enormous there isn’t the physical production to back it. It’s even worse in Australia than in America – the de-industrialisation of our society in the last two decades.

GEORGE NEGUS: Are we talking here, Peter, of people’s expectations just being too high altogether because of the ready access to loan money? People think they can afford to live in ways that they can’t live.

PETER SCHIFF: People think the government has real wealth, the government can help solve problems. They can’t. All they have is a printing press. They can debase money, they can rearrange the losses, but they can’t make them go away and they can’t produce anything. And the problem on interest rates is we shouldn’t have governments setting interest rates, just as we don’t have governments setting the price of anything. They’re going to do it wrong and of course when it comes to inflation our government lies about inflation. They claim our inflation is non-existent. In the GDP deflator, where they tried to manufacture a 3% growth, the government claimed inflation in America is running at a 1.2% annual rate – the lowest in 10 years. Our inflation is over 10% a year. The government cooks the books. If the free market set interest rates, they would be much higher because nobody would loan money for below the rate of inflation.

GEORGE NEGUS: At least in this country we can say that the government are not lying about inflation. They’re actually blaming it for all the problems we have. But are they missing the point as well when they keep harping on the way they do about inflation and in fact we don’t hear much about this enormous public and private debt?

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: The central banks of the world, including our Reserve Bank, and certainly the American FRB, they have forgotten the reason they were created was to some extent to prevent an occurrence like the Great Depression. They have ignored debt completely and in the meantime focused on inflation. Debt has gone through the roof. We have gone back to twice as much debt as we had before the Great Depression began…..

…….”
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February 10, 2009 2:03pm
PhilBest

Especially THIS comment:

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: “I wish Peter were right that the rest of the world had its act in order. The rest of the OECD doesn’t. It isn’t just America that been borrowing more money than it’s been earning – the whole of the OECD bar one country, which has France, has been having an increase in ratio of its debt to GDP for the last 30 years. So we’re all in the borrowing game. We’ve all made the mistake of confusing money generated by real production with money you can borrow from a bank. And that’s kept on going for so long that it’s reached the point now where that game is over. If you like, it’s the old “greater fool” philosophy. You make money if you find a greater fool who borrows more money than you did to buy the same asset off you and you get away rich and they end up with even more debt…..”

And:

GEORGE NEGUS: “So, lower interest rates or not, are people going to lose their homes in this country?”

PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: “Yes. The scale of debt is so enormous there isn’t the physical production to back it. It’s even worse in Australia than in America – the de-industrialisation of our society in the last two decades.”

And New Zealand falls where……?
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February 10, 2009 2:09pm
Portia

Thanks PhilBest. Good stuff. This earlier comment from Peter Schiff is also a sobering reality check:

“When you’re talking about all the problems around the world, remember, the global problems are the result of America borrowing so much money and not being able to pay it back. The credit crunch is that we’ve being borrowing money – hundred of billions, trillions of dollars from the rest of the world – and now the world is finally beginning to realise that we’re not good for the money. We can’t pay it back because we have been borrowing to consume. Nobody has loaned us money to build factories, to build infrastructure. We have nothing to show for the trillions of dollars the world has loaned us except empty houses, plasma TVs, SUVS. We’ve blown the money on consumption and this is the problem. Ultimately the solution for the rest of the world is to stop lending us money, let the dollar collapse, let the US economy implode, and the rest of the world just goes about its business.”

I’d pondered for years how the US continued to spend and spend on things that didn’t necessarily bring it any return. I wondered if its economy survived a bit like Enron used to – by appearing to be so huge and successful that people believed it to be invincible. Until one day, like the Wizard of Oz, it all turns out to be illusory.
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February 10, 2009 2:30pm
LUCY

I remember watching a TV programme last year about debt (American).

This 20yr old, with no job, had run up $50k on credit cards that she had spent on clothes, holidays, beauty products etc. She had absolutely no way of paying her debts. When asked what she was going to do, she said she was going to get another set of cards. When it was suggested that she should stop and try to pay off what she owed she said she was “entitled” to enjoy herself and it wasnt her fault she wasnt working.

Unfortunately we have breed a whole generation with the attitude that they are ‘entitled’ to what ever they want and it is not their responsibility to work for it.
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February 10, 2009 2:39pm
PhilBest

I’m still researching Steve Keen’s writings, in growing disbelief:

“Why Did They Not See It Coming”?

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-why-did-they-not-see-it-coming-.aspx?contributor=Steve+Keen&article=1652150778G10020&redirect=False

(This site provides the important articles in PDF form)

For those with the time and the intelligence, this is dynamite stuff. The Aussie outlook is not so hot as it is made out to be. I wish someone would do a similar forensic job on the NZ economy.
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February 10, 2009 3:33pm
dime

DUFFONOMICS hass arrived!

No nudity…

http://www.playboy.com/blog/2009/02/appetite-for-investment-duffonomics-1.html

http://www.playboy.com/blog/2009/02/appetite-for-investment-what-got-us-into-this-mess-ignorance-is-no-longer-an-excuse-1.html

Duff – a founding member of Guns n Roses is doing a financial coloumn for Playboy..
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February 10, 2009 3:39pm
PhilBest

Or here is another PDF’d one: it’s called “America’s Ponzi Schemes Begin To Unravel”, but it contains comparisons with Aussie throughout, that are not flattering:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/KeenDebtWatchNo10August2007.pdf
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February 10, 2009 3:45pm
Frank

The mining industry is Australia’s saving grace, and is set to boom, particularly the Iron Ore Industry.
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February 10, 2009 4:06pm
Pascal

mickeysavage:

So 9 years of sometimes tricky minority coalition government and you think that Labour did not involve the other parties and work with them? Do you really mean what you have said?

The Labour government used the Greens, abused Maori and generally worked for their own advantage. Walk through the last 9 years and yes, they managed to cobble together enough support to govern, but they rarely – if ever – sought a consensus amongst the parties – more to the spirit of MMP. I don’t even need to mention their self serving “reforms” to our electoral act and how one sided that was, do I?

mickeysavage:

Have you checked the Government accounts lately and marvelled at what a good job Cullen did?

Okay, you are delusional. No other answer for it. Cullen did a good job? Ahahahaha.
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February 10, 2009 5:12pm
LUCY

Pascal, Mickey lives on another planet. Cullen did a good job LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He doesnt get it and I dont think he ever will. Ive decided to ignore him.
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February 10, 2009 5:44pm
wikiriwhis business

Well I never!

Keith Locke has been spied on since he was 11 by the SIS.

So glad I decided to watch Nightline last night. That claim was made nowhere else.

Obviously the man is concerned the state has info on his pubescent mastorbatory habits.

He needn’t fear, the secrets been out for ions. Poor deluded man has no idea.

Must be good walking around in a cloud of total unawareness to his public perception.

Someone turn a fan on around him!
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February 10, 2009 5:50pm
thedavincimode

MyNameIsJack says:

“had an interesting experience this morning [congrats – dvm]

I popped into my local homeopathic dispensary …Isn’t it about time homeopaths[‘ customers] were investigated by the [sanity] commission?”

Well, yes of course.

I gather from your comment to Lucy … “Lucy, fuck you too” … that you were prescribed your course of five bottled waters to assist in coping with anger management issues; possibly attributable to irritability induced by an an unfortunate skin condition.

By way of alternative, can I suggest either Colourtherapy, Aromatherapy or alternatively, and my personal preference, a collection of crystals to be hung over the bedhead whilst sleeping with a string of garlic slung about the meat and two veg during the full moon. The latter certainly works for me; particularly when other herbs, spices or condiments are added to the mix. In that regard, I find that a healthy lashing of sambal oelek in the nether regions works a treat, but ANECDOTAL evidence indicates that the appropriate herb/spice/condiment can vary both by the season and the individual. For example, I understand (ANECDOTALLY) that the sambal oelek can be a bit hard to handle in the summer for some sufferers; in which case I would suggest a sprig of rosemary (renowned, along with garlic, for keeping evil spirits at bay).

As a last resort, you could of course consult Helensphotogenicimposter (assuming its an emergency), but you run the risk that HPI might consult HPI’s peer group who deal with other such afflictions; thereby subjecting you to a course of treatment reflecting ANECDOTAL clinical experience; as distinct from the more compelling experience of members of the Society of Morris Dancers and Natural Treatment Therapists.
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February 10, 2009 6:44pm
Fred

PhilBest This blog is worth reading go back to his posts on “exponents” http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

And this post of Steve Keen’s is well worth a look http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/31/therovingcavaliersofcredit/
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February 10, 2009 7:46pm
adam2314

PhilBest (4307) Vote: 1 0 Says:

February 10th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I’m still researching Steve Keen’s writings, in growing disbelief:

“Why Did They Not See It Coming”?

This has been seen coming for years..

Sites such as financialsense and sciforums have been on about it ad nauseam for at least 5 years.
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February 10, 2009 8:05pm
wreck1080

Vodafone make me so mad. They are one of the worst companies out there. Their billing system sucks, and 1/2 the time they are having technical difficulties.

I phoned them before xmas with my new credit card number, but, unlike the other utilities they don’t allow credit card phone updates.

So, they send me out a form via snail mail, I complete and return. I thought, no worries, I’ve told them all the info via phone and email things will be sweet.

But, vodafone seem to have taken some time to process my credit card update, and 2 payments were missed. I find out today, because the f***ers cut off my phone.

I phone them to find out why, they say, i owe them money. I say, how could that be, i advised them of my new CC details and they never contacted me to let me know there was a problem.

If vodafone sent out bills like EVERYONE else I WOULD HAVE KNOWN.

Vodafone did absolutely nothing to contact me , even though I had called them with all they needed. It is not like they dind’t have my gsm number.

So, she says she’ll sort it out and reconnect my phone.

As of 8pm they still have not reconnected , so I phone them again. They say, i still owe them money, and the previous person has in fact sorted out nothing. She says she gave me 25 free minutes talk time, whoopie!!

I wish telecom had gsm , i would so change right now.
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February 10, 2009 8:41pm
wikiriwhis business

A q was raised on Topix about alcohol being a factor in this summers water deaths

Alcohol hasn’t been a factor in the media about water related deaths. Water has been instilled in us from primary school. We have a great espect for it.

I would suggest slow moving rips constitute a geat majority of deaths. Also flash waves ripping anglers from precarious cliffs. But that’s another story of course.

I have the sneaking suspicion that because we’re not instilled about driving in our childhood years we still don’t have the same respect for vehicles as we do water. Therefore drink drive. That’s where the allegory really fits in.

The answer to drink driving isn’t so much to raise the driving age and have graduated licencing that is really more revenue for the govt coffers but to have theoretical driving education in middle schools so we have more respect for the roads when we do come of age
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February 11, 2009 7:24am
PhilBest

Thank you, Fred, Karl Denninger is onto it, I will read more of him, and if Steve Keen is right in that posting, he deserves to be famous one day.

And Adam2314, thanks too; I am discovering more and more economic commentators who are being proved right; yet all the wrong men are getting all jobs in charge of the system.

Like this guy says:

“Love That Economic Pain!”

By Dr. Mark W. Hendrickson
FrontPageMagazine.com | 2/9/2009

“What would you think if you heard a prominent physician being interviewed and the topic of discussion was the breakout of a serious epidemic, and then the physician started enthusing about how great this plague would be for his business? At the very least, you would regard such remarks as tactless and inappropriate. More likely, you would be repulsed by the lack of compassion, the gross selfishness, the ruthlessness of such an attitude.

What if you then discovered that the physician was part of a medical cabal that had unleashed the plague on the public? Would you not want, at the very least, to see them banned from the practice of medicine, and perhaps punished for having inflicted such cruel and unnecessary suffering upon so many innocent victims?

This ugly scenario is analogous to our political situation today. Leading Democrat politicians openly gush about how the current economic pain has opened the door of opportunity for them to expand the powers of the federal government. They openly celebrate what they perceive as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to enact sweeping new legislation, create new government programs, and assert ever-greater economic control over the American people.

Shortly after being appointed chief of staff to President-elect Obama, Rahm Emanuel told a conference of corporate CEOs how the new administration views today’s wrenching economic crisis: “This crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not do before.”

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” Mr. Emanuel declared with amazing candor.

This likewise reflects the view of Emanuel’s boss. Obama himself recently stated, “This painful crisis also provides us with an opportunity to transform our economy.”

The Democratic majority in Congress apparently shares the administration’s view of the crisis. On Dec. 4, House Financial Services Chairman and a principal Democratic spokesman, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), enthusiastically predicted that 2009 would be the “best year” for new public policies since Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.

Mr. Frank’s statement is rich with irony. One irony is that he is one of the main culprits in having blocked Republican attempts to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac several years ago. The result was this year’s catastrophic bankruptcy of the two mortgage-lending giants, which was one of the key events that helped to plunge the country into its current economic woes. Barack Obama said in October that there would be time after the election to identify and punish those responsible for contributing to the country’s financial woes, but instead of being punished for his malfeasance, Barney Frank is being rewarded with a lead role in reshaping economic policy.

There is a second irony in Mr. Frank’s gushing adoration of the New Deal. If 2009 is to be the “best year” for public policy since the New Deal, it suggests that Mr. Frank celebrates both the current economic pain and the economic devastation of the Great Depression as being exactly what “the doctor” (i.e., Mr. Frank and his ideological soul mates on Capitol Hill) ordered—lots of pain for lots of Americans, so that Frank and Company can initiate some radical public-policy surgery.

A further inference to be drawn from Frank’s statement is that he views the New Deal as the high-water mark for good legislation in our country. Apparently, Frank does not regard the growth-stimulating tax cuts under Presidents Kennedy, Reagan, and George W. Bush as being as helpful to the American people as the New Deal. The tax cuts unleashed and led to vibrant growth in the private sector; the New Deal, by continually siphoning materials, labor, and capital from the private sector to the public sector, crippled economic activity and consequently imposed great economic hardship on Americans. Clearly, Frank favors legislation that enlarges the public sector over legislation that helps the private sector to thrive.

One of the many striking similarities between today’s crisis and the Great Depression is that Democratic spin-masters are engaged in an all-out propaganda campaign to blame the 2008 financial panic on market behavior rather than on the government intervention that actually caused it. They are borrowing a page from the long-time strategy of New Deal apologists, who fallaciously attribute the Great Depression to “market failure,” rather on the radical government intervention that disrupted and suppressed the ability of markets to function.

What needs to be widely understood by Americans is this: If those in power have the same dislike for markets and the same exaggerated faith in government that FDR had, and if the New Deal is to be the model for legislation in 2009, then we shouldn’t be surprised if we end up with similarly painful economic conditions.

“We the people” are seeking cures from economic doctors with a well-known history of malpractice. Heaven help us survive whatever remedies they may concoct.”

http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Printable.aspx?GUID=C951903F-C6B5-47B8-A763-D798CDA72D0A
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February 11, 2009 11:23am

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