The year so far in iPredict
I had lots of fun on iPredict in 2008. I made over $1,000 (more tahn doubling my money) by investing in stocks on various events. The best return was $400 on Winston Peters not being an MP. Second best was $350 that CLark would not sack Peters. I only lost money off Benson-Pope not contesting the election and under-estimating how far the OCR would drop.
Now so far in 2009, it is off to a good start. I made around $160 on the Labour Party leadership (that it would be Goff not Cunliffe) and around $50 on the EFA being repealed by end of May.
So what are my current investments:
- Petrol price at end of February – I have 100 shares I got for 36c that it will be more than 156c/l – current price is 95c, so looking good
- Clark to leave Parliament this year – 100 shares I got for 80c, and currently sitting at 90c
- Cullen to leave Parliament this year – 100 shares I got for 49c, and currently sitting at 81c. These have gone up around 20c in the last few days, so maybe someone knows something?
- I have short sold (basically it means I am saying the event will not happen) 300 shares that Annette King will not be Deputy Leader of Labour at the end of the year. I think she will be, so sold this stock at 26c and hope to buy it for 0c when it doesn’t happen. Currently at 24c which is over priced in my book. I would put her chances of going this year as under 10% so worth selling while price is over 10c.
- Also sold 400 shares that Commodore Bainimarama will step down as Interim PM of Fiji this year – that means I think he will not step down. I think there is no chance he will step down from power, but there is some risk he will give himself a new job title. I sold 400 shares at 27c and they are currently 31c.
- Sold 350 shares that Goff will be rolled by year end, meaning I think he will not be rolled. I sold for 13c, and they are now up to 16c. I think he may come under pressure in 2010, but not 2009.
- Sold 50 shares that Anderton would announce his retirement this year. I think he will announce it, but in 2010. Sold for 28c and currently 23c.
- Sold 200 shares that the Maori-National coalition will be terminated in 2009. Sold for 19c and they are currently 20c. I think they are over priced.
I’ve yet to buy or sell any of the 2011 election stocks, as too early for me.