Poll breakdown on same sex marriage

have kindly published the demographic breakdown of their May poll on same sex marriage. Overall New Zealanders were 2:1 in favour with 63% supporting and 31% against. But the demographic breakdowns are fascinating:

  • Amongst under 35s, it is over 4:1 in favour or 76% to 18%
  • Even amongst 35 to 54 year olds, 66% are in favour
  • This suggests that combined, around 70% of people aged under 55 are in favour of allowing same sex couples to marry. This is why I believe it is absolutely inevitable
  • Women support same sex marriage by around 2.5:1 or 69% to 26% – and women are swing voters
  • The more someone earns, the more likely they are to support same sex marriage – those earning $70,000 or more are almost 2.5:1 in favour
  • Those who identify with a are split evenly on the issue, while those who do not are around 3.5:1 in favour being 75% to 21%
  • Rural and small town respondents are in favour by 59% to 33% – just slightly less than the overall average of 63% to 31%.

Very fascinating results. They do not provide the breakdown for combined gender and age but looking at this I'd estimate that women aged under 55 are around 80% in favour. No demographic is strongly against with those aged over 55 being only 48% opposed – a plurality margin of just 2%.

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