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August 28, 2014 3:44pm by David Farrar

Latest poll

Have blogged the latest NZ Herald Digipoll at Curiablog.

This is the latest time and size weighted average of the public polls.

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Comment35

NZ Politics
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Comments (35)

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Longknives

Seems the majority of New Zealanders haven’t been sucked in by Nicky Dotcom’s bullshit after all…
You might need a bit more than ‘Rape Raps’ to win this one lefties!
19 1
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August 28, 2014 3:48pm
Rich Prick

Quite the opposite Longknives, it seems that the Dirty Politics from Labour and the Greens has worked. Just not as they had intended.
17 1
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August 28, 2014 3:52pm
soundhill1

When it says random phone does that include cellphone?
0 4
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August 28, 2014 3:53pm
EAD

Left wing parties with 123 seats according to this poll average.

One thing this doesn’t show is momentum and where that is – on the right. The place where the National Party of old used to stand proudly and now where the Conservatives are rapidly filling that space long since vacated as the Nats try to take over the centre-left vote and push Labour to the fringe of lunacy.
15 3
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August 28, 2014 3:54pm
muggins

I thought NZ First might have polled a bit higher.
1 2
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August 28, 2014 3:57pm
Lindsay Addie

Labour could have a real issue in forming a Government when if on election day they continue to poll around 25%. How the heck is Cunliffe going to be able justify leading the next administration when your not even the dominant partner in a coalition of the thrilling that could include the Greens, Winston, and IMP?

Cunliffe better have a brick or two in his boxing gloves tonight? 😉
12 0
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August 28, 2014 3:59pm
Ross Miller

Is EAD a bot with the maths module installed upside down and sideways … Just askin.

Its shonky analysis is a bit like its leader.
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August 28, 2014 4:01pm
Pete George

soundhill1 – most polling companies don’t randomly call cellphones but according to a pollster (Colmar Brunton) they would if they thought it would affect their results. There are other things more likely to affect results.

As I’ve said before, calling cells is not, and will never be, the magic bullet for opinion polling.

Details: http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2014/07/07/polls-and-cell-phones-again/

The cellphone issue is usually mentioned in conjunction with an unfavourable poll result.

Roy Morgan do include cellphones. Last week :
– National 48% (up 2%)
– Labour Party 27.5% (down 2.5%)
7 0
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August 28, 2014 4:08pm
Redbaiter

“Its shonky analysis is a bit like its leader.”

You’re on the way out Ross.

Get used to it.

Couldn’t happen to anyone more deserving.

You don’t fight you lose.
12 1
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August 28, 2014 4:09pm
Nukuleka

Interesting that the Herald published this latest poll online today rather than wait to reveal it in tomorrow’s print edition. It will certainly provide John Key with fuel for any ‘Labour continuing its downward spiral’ jibe in tonight’s tv debate.

The left will be squealing!
13 0
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August 28, 2014 4:10pm
straya

DPF out of interest, how did your final time and size weighted average of the polls, published just before the 2011 election, compare to the actual result?
5 0
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August 28, 2014 4:11pm
dime

At those levels, Adern is history? Please please please make it so
13 1
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August 28, 2014 4:11pm
lastmanstanding

No need to panic folks, Remember these polls are done by a person phoning a person and asking them how they will vote.

On election day you have to get out of bed and go to a polling station and complete your ballot and put it into the box.

I suggest that some parties like IMP will struggle to get their supporters to the polling stations.

I also suggest that a large number of the 800K plus who didn’t vote in 2011 were more of the Left leaning than the Right.
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August 28, 2014 4:21pm
georgebolwing

OK, the Herald at least said this in the third par of their story: “National is up fractionally and could still govern alone with 64 seats. Mr Key’s personal popularity is up 3 points to 67.8 per cent”.

Now, it has been received wisdom in New Zealand that under MMP, no party will ever be able to govern alone, yet poll after poll shows that National is on track to do just that. Why is this not the headline?
10 0
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August 28, 2014 4:26pm
Ed Snack

EAD has it about right except that the Conservatives are also of the left, certainly economically they are. NZ is soft left all over except for (in the most) ACT.
9 0
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August 28, 2014 4:26pm
NK

Apropos Ed Snack: http://www.act.org.nz/post/colincraig
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August 28, 2014 4:32pm
Pete George

georgebolwing – poll after poll after poll before the last election showed National in the region of ‘able to govern alone’ but they under-performed in the poll that mattered. It’s expected their support will drop this time too.

iPredict currently has National at at 43.5%

iPredict is based on “what do you think they will get in the election”.
Opinion polls ask “who would you vote for if an election was held today”. That’s quite different.
4 1
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August 28, 2014 4:38pm
soundhill1

“The cellphone issue is usually mentioned in conjunction with an unfavourable poll result.

Roy Morgan do include cellphones. Last week :
– National 48% (up 2%)
– Labour Party 27.5% (down 2.5%)”

Do they just randomly dial numbers or choose from some sort of a list of numbers they know are actually assigned to users, or have dialed before? How do they choose their list?

Is there a graph comparing the two types of poll trends?
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August 28, 2014 4:41pm
Redbaiter

“NZ is soft left all over except for (in the most) ACT.”

ACT are social liberals.

This makes them as left as any other NZ party and therefore unknowing as to what is really behind most of the social destruction that is plaguing the country.

(Once they weren’t, and I supported them then)
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August 28, 2014 4:43pm
Pete George

Roy Morgan have trend graphs here:
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5747-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-20-2014-201408200128

Also here with a table of results since June 2012 and election results this century:
http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Findings%20PDF/2014/August/5747-NZ-National-Voting-Intention-.pdf
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August 28, 2014 4:47pm
radvad

The Nats have had dirty laundry aired the last couple of weeks. However this is more than balanced out by the stinking stench of lefty hater in chief Kim Dotcom hovering over all the left parties. Privately they must be seething over this idiot especially as he is going to deprive them of any oxygen in the last 5 days of the campaign.
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August 28, 2014 4:52pm
OTGO

All politicians and by definition political parties are statists. The only difference between them is the speed that they want to take you there. ACT appear to be the party that are moving to statism the slowest so vote ACT this election until something slower comes along.
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August 28, 2014 4:52pm
Redbaiter

OTGO- you can’t see the connection between social liberalism and the ever growing state you must need an eye transplant.

They might be driving the train slightly slower but as long as ACT subscribe to social liberalism most of the momentum is still there.
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August 28, 2014 4:54pm
georgebolwing

For me, the most interesting figure in the latest Herald poll is that 67.8% of the polled population state John Key is their preferred PM.

If you assume that all Act, Conservative, MP and UF votes want John Key to be PM, my rough calculation is that about 35% of Labour, Green, IM and NZF voters are saying that despite their intended party vote, they would prefer John Key to be Prime Minister.

(BTW, for the first time ever, I have tried to post on The Standard, posting the above. Surprisingly, it hasn’t escaped from moderation yet.)
8 0
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August 28, 2014 4:58pm
OTGO

RB – so where is the anarchic party to get my vote to back the train up?
2 0
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August 28, 2014 4:58pm
bringbackdemocracy

The Conservatives have momentum.
7 0
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August 28, 2014 5:01pm
Redbaiter

OTGO- sorry to say that I think it will only arise from the smoking ruins of what we today call western civilisation 🙂
4 0
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August 28, 2014 5:02pm
kiwi in america

The timing of this poll (i.e. the polling period) is important. Less of the polling period was during the fallout over the Hager emails (specifically the Collins and SIS OIA issues) and more during and since the National launch and post launch period where Key has been able to steady the ship and control the agenda a bit more. Lets imagine where National would be if they faced a media environment like the US or UK with a popular centre right TV network and/or tabloid newspapers in their camp to offset the left leaning MSM. People are sick of the media spin. My sister is a faithful UF voter with an occasional flirtation with NZ 1st. She’s never been friendly to National but is sick of the Dotcom sideshow and the breathless Hager obsession of the media.

I’m fascinated as to why the Herald released this poll pre-debate as the RR/TV3 poll was giving the left such hope. Key of course would be privy to National’s daily tracking polls and would already know that the Hager effect was minor and was wearing off.

With yet another poll showing Labour going down the dunny, notwithstanding Vote Positive, I’m predicting Cunliffe will be rehashing the Hager stuff at every opportunity.
4 0
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August 28, 2014 5:09pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

KIA: maybe Herald released this poll early to take views from TV3 – Peoples Front of Judea vs Judean Peoples Front.
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August 28, 2014 5:17pm
Ross Miller

Redbaiter and other CCCP sycophants. Can I suggest you actually look at the poll taken over a period that included the so called fallout from Hager’s diatribe. National UP 0.7% (same as your mob) and yet you Red interpret that as National on the way down.

A more mature view might be that there is a backlash against Dirty Politics and the BIG players in the field and Labour, the Greens and crimdotcon.

I fully expect CCCP to engage in their own brand of dirty politics and release a poll showing them winning Epsom …. much like they did in Rodney last time. Refresh me with the size of Mark Mitchell’s majority over your man … 12,000 plus if I remember correctly … sigh.

The problem with the so called Conservatives is that they arn’t a Party in the true sense but a reflection of one mans out of control ego and in that they have common ground with crimdotcon.
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August 28, 2014 5:39pm
Lindsay Addie

Latest Roy Morgan poll:
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5747-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-20-2014-201408200128

NAT 48%
LAB 27.5
GRN 11.5
NZF 6.5
All others 1% or less.
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August 28, 2014 5:43pm
EAD

@ Red

Both Act & The Conservatives are of the right.

If we want to use a right/left spectrum (which I hate because it is used to narrow debate), the fundamental difference between the right and the left is that the right believes in individual power while the left believes the collective subsumes the indiviual.

The left like to collectivise society and you will find them describing society as a collection of groups who are assigned group rights. This is a way to advance State power as it keeps the populace trying to leverage the political process to gain themselves favours. As such, the current National party can only be described as considerably left as it has signed up to all the lefts shibboleths i.e. (minority rights), equality (which is another chance for the state to stick it’s nose into private affairs) etc. They view the State as a source of good by which social change can be achieved. They will always advocate for State enforced change (i.e. flag changes, gay marriage, education syllabus, smacking bans etc).

Those on the right believe that State is always and everywhere an evil that must be tolerated. It must be handcuffed financially (that’s why I advocate for a goldd standard), socially, politically and by legislative measures. The difference on the right is that the Libertarians (like myself) believe in the Golden rule “One should treat others as one would like others to treat oneself” and that one should be able to do as they place as long as they do no harm to others. Conservatives believe that Liberty for the individual is best achieved in a society that is bound by a common ethos/culture, respects the rule of law (as opposed to the rule of government) and change occurs organically rather than enforced and radically.

Read those definitions of what I consider “the right” to be and you will see National is nowhere to be found.
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August 28, 2014 6:45pm
alwyn

@georgebolwing

“BTW, for the first time ever, I have tried to post on The Standard, posting the above”

I think you’ll see it turn up. I understand that the first time you post it automatically goes into moderation. After that they usually go up automatically, although their filter seemed to play up yesterday.
They, or at least Lyn Prentice, are much less harsh than they used to be. My posts are definitely not in favour of their views and I’ve only been banned once for a couple of weeks this year. Last election I was banned for life about three months before the election for something trivial. They let everyone back about two years ago because, I suspect, they were down to about 10 people they were willing to tolerate.
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August 28, 2014 6:47pm
goldnkiwi

Regarding the mobile phone argument, most ‘young people’ do not have phone plans but have prepaid and quite disposable, so their numbers would not be available surely? I would imagine that other mobile listed phone numbers are likely to be business associated or ‘older’ persons than discussion around mobile phones would suggest.

When I see that statement that is what I assume they are meaning that ‘youth’ miss out on being polled as they are not the ‘landline’ generation.
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August 28, 2014 6:55pm
hj

thought NZ First might have polled a bit higher.
………
Too many poll takers with foreign accents.
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August 28, 2014 7:41pm
deadrightkev

Parliament and New Zealand will benefit hugely from the input of Colin Craig if he gets in with sufficient numbers to cause National a head ache, especially if the CP sit on the cross benches as I suspect they will. I think it would bring a breath of transparency, action and legislative scrutiny taxpayers haven’t been provided for decades.

The brakes will go on the progressives march and despite me not agreeing with the strict CP policy on asset sales there is a lot to like, especially reforms of the RMA, education, health, taxation and one law for all. Reforms of these will make the NZ economy sing. Act could work with the CP on these reforms with little difficulty in my opinion.

Instead of taking cheap personal pot shots from 0.3-0.6% where there is zero chance of a bounce back Act should be staying on message to protect its chance in Epsom. That post does them no favours with ex members and it looks like sour grapes. The time to beat the CP polling was a year or two ago but the brains trust did nothing and wimped out in favour of the status quo.

Sir Roger Douglas had an alternative taxation policy an election term or three back which had a very similar look to the CP one as I recall. I would not be criticising his numbers in a hurry.
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August 30, 2014 9:46am

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