My end of year prediction looks even further out. Our next government will be a National-Green one with Peters sidelined and furious.
Under Shaw’s leadership, the Greens are quietly repositioning. They joined National in hailing the climate change agreement concluded in Paris.
In that one moment they were no longer outsiders throwing rocks at those inside. They were responsible, stately and showing an ability to compromise and work with others.
It makes sense. The Greens need leverage to achieve policy. They have none if their only option is Labour. They need to sidle quietly up to National. And they are.
Key for a fourth term will pay their price. It will be for a comprehensive tax on greenhouse gas emissions, including agriculture. National in its cunning will make sure the tax takes more than three years to implement.
The election of Shaw will prove a tipping point but one we never noticed. Dunne will remain in office like the cabinet table and chairs. And Peters will be the angry man in opposition.
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.
I really can’t see Metiria Turei as a Minister in a National-led Government. However that would be preferable to Winston in Government!