Young on Clark vs Rudd

Audrey Young writes:

Key told reporters at the post-Cabinet press conference this week that he expected he and Turnbull would discuss the issue during Key’s current visit to Sydney although it was not on the formal agenda.

It is a safe bet that if Rudd declared his candidacy, Australia would publicly support him.

But it is hard to see there would be any enthusiasm for a vigorous campaign on his behalf in the way Key is promising to lead for Helen Clark, in the event she declares.

Key’s latest line this week was to say he would lobby every leader of every country he knew to help her, that New Zealand would do all it could to support her and finance her campaign.

I can’t imagine a Labour PM doing this for a former National PM.

Despite his record, Australian media regularly suggest Rudd has an outside chance of getting the job. In reality, he has no chance. Clark has an outside chance.

In comparison to Clark’s record, his is pitiful. Her record was of uniting a highly factionalised Labour Party and leading it into Government for three successive terms.

He was dumped as a sitting Prime Minister two and a half years into his term by former colleagues who called his management style chaotic and dysfunctional.

I can’t imagine any leader who has met Rudd actually voting for him!

The frontrunner of those who have declared is considered by insiders to be Irina Bokova, director-general of Unesco since 2009 – and from Eastern Europe (Bulgaria), which has never had a Secretary-General.

She was formally nominated last week and has an extensive CV with experience in politics and diplomacy.

The question is whether Bokova will get US support. UNESCO is historically see as very anti-US. The other Bulgarian candidate is a Vice-President of the EU but that may get blocked by Russia. So if they both get blocked, then the road may open up for Clark.

Clark would get supported by the UK and China as of right. Key could probably get Obama and the US on side to support her. France and Russia would be the unknowns.

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