Richard Harman writes at Politik:
The Labour/Green pact announced yesterday may pave the way for Greens Co-Leader James Shaw to stand against Peter Dunne in Ohariu.
If Labour didn’t stand a candidate — and Labour sources say that’s a real possibility — then, on paper, based on the last election results, Mr Dunne would lose his seat.
I’m not sure Labour not standing would see Shaw win the seat.
If Labour pulled out, then it is quite possible National could decide not to stand also. Or alternatively National voters would be more likely to vote strategically to ensure Shaw did not win.
It is also possible Dunne may not stand again in 2017, in which case National would win easily I’d say.
Let’s look at the party vote in the seat, as that gives a good idea of how right or left a seat it.
National got 50.4%. Labour got 23.5% and Greens 15.1%. So their combined vote is 38.6% – around 12% behind National.
Of those National voters 29% voted for the National candidate and 59% for Dunne. If it looked like Shaw might win, I’d say you’d get even greater tactical voting.