Clinton leading in all but one swing state

538 has the following leads for Clinton in the swing states:

  1. Oregon 12.1%
  2. Virginia 9.8%
  3. Michigan 9.3%
  4. New Hampshire 9.0%
  5. Wisconsin 8.2%
  6. Colorado 7.8%
  7. Minnesota 7.4%
  8. Pennsylvania 7.3%
  9. Nevada 4.1%
  10. Florida 4.0%
  11. North Carolina 3.1%
  12. Ohio 2.0%
  13. Arizona 0.8%

So at the moment is is Clinton 351 and Trump 187. If he even did won the states where he trails by under 5% that gives him 79 more so 266 – four short. He needs to win all of those and one of the states where he trails by 7% or more.

Up until the last few days the Trump effect was not hitting the Senate races that much. It was 50/50 but now the Dems are seen as 73% likely to gain control. They lead by the following in the GOP held seats:

  1. Illinois 9.8%
  2. Wisconsin 8.2%
  3. Indiana 3.5%
  4. New Hampshire 2.4%
  5. Missouri 1.2%
  6. Pennsylvania 0.7%

So if these hold up the Democrats get 52 seats in the Senate.

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