Later today Winston will announce Shane Jones is his candidate for Whangarei. This is a smart move by NZ First as it does give them a potential successor to Winston. However neither Ron Mark nor Tracey Martin will be wanting Jones to become Deputy Leader so it will be a very interesting caucus dynamic.
Some will claim that Jones will win Whangarei. So to assess how likely this is, I thought it would be useful to look at how he has done in the three elections he has stood in:
- 2005 – got 24% of the electorate vote in Northland
- 2008 – got 29% of the electorate vote in Northland
- 2011 – got 34% of the electorate vote in Tamaki Makarau
By comparison Shane Reti won Whangarei in 2014 with 55% of the electorate vote.