January/February 2018 public polls

The monthly newsletter is out, and the summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 115, January and February 2018

There were two political voting polls in January and February – a Newshub Reid Research and a One News Colmar Brunton.

In January National led Labour by 2% but trailed by 5% in February.

 The seat projection for February was centre-right 57 seats, centre-left 64.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

National’s party vote in February was 4% below a year ago and 6% lower than three years ago.

 Labour’s party vote was 20% higher than a year ago and 17% higher than three years ago.

In the United States, Trump now has a positive approval rating for his handling of the economy.

In the UK, the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck in the polls but Conservatives projected to win more seats.

In Australia, little change with Labor projected to win the next election with a 28-seat majority.

In Canada, for the first time since the election, the Conservatives are tied with the governing Liberals in the polls. This follows on from the much-derided Trudeau tour of India.

We also carry details of polls on Israel and abortion as well as business and consumer confidence.

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The graph below of the minor parties since 2012 is interesting:

They are both now in Government. Their challenge is how to convince people who think the Government is doing a good job to vote for them rather than that nice Jacinda.

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