The Electoral Commission reports:
At the end of the Option, 52.4% of Māori voters were on the Māori roll and 47.6% were on the general roll, compared with 52.8% and 47.2% at the start of the Option period. There have been net increases of 1,200 on the Māori roll and 4,015 on the general roll.
So not a huge change but still slightly significant in that this is the first option in many years where the net movement was away from the Maori roll.
Previous results are:
- 2013 – Maori roll went from 54.8% to 55.3%
- 2006 – Maori roll went from 55.4% to 57.6%
- 2001 – Maori roll went from 51.1% to 55.4%
- 1997 – Maori roll went from 49.9% to 53.6%
So the reduction to 52.4% is the first reduction under MMP.
I think this is probably tactical. Now Labour holds all seven Maori seats again, there is less interest in them.
There are currently seven Māori electorates and that number could increase, decrease or stay the same.
After the number of electorates has been calculated by the Government Statistician, the Representation Commission will be convened to determine the electorate boundaries and the names of the electorates for the 2020 and 2023 general elections.
I don’t expect any change but it is possible.
More likely is the number of general electorate seats will grow.