Latest poll

One News Colmar Brunton poll is here. As expected, a deserved boost for the Government and Ardern. When a Government shows competence it should go up in the polls. This is not a bad thing.

What is interesting is despite the timing being in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attack, how it compares with the same poll at the same point in National’s first term – April 2010.

Here’s how the numbers look:

  • major government party – 48% Labour (2019) vs 54% National (2010)
  • major opposition party – 40% National vs 33% Labour

So definitely a great deserved result for Labour but still 6% below what National was at midway in 1st term. And National in opposition is 7% above what Labour were at.

They key question going forward is what direction does the Government go in. Do they consolidate or do they slip back. How they deal with CGT, Kiwibuild, the Budget etc will be the key.

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