Will it be Boris?

Theresa May is set to announce the date of her resignation tomorrow, starting off the leadership contest to replace her.

The current probabilities based on betting odds are:

  1. Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson 40%
  2. Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab 20%
  3. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt 9%
  4. Environment Secretary Michael Gove 8%
  5. Former Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom 6%
  6. Home Secretary Sajid Javid 6%
  7. Health Secretary Matt Hancock 5%
  8. Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt 5%
  9. International Development Secretary Rory Stewart 5%

I have little doubt Boris would win the vote of members. But he has to finish in the top two of the caucus votes, to make the membership vote.

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