Theresa May is set to announce the date of her resignation tomorrow, starting off the leadership contest to replace her.
The current probabilities based on betting odds are:
- Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson 40%
- Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab 20%
- Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt 9%
- Environment Secretary Michael Gove 8%
- Former Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom 6%
- Home Secretary Sajid Javid 6%
- Health Secretary Matt Hancock 5%
- Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt 5%
- International Development Secretary Rory Stewart 5%
I have little doubt Boris would win the vote of members. But he has to finish in the top two of the caucus votes, to make the membership vote.