Will it be Boris?

is set to announce the date of her tomorrow, starting off the leadership contest to replace her.

The current probabilities based on betting odds are:

  1. Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson 40%
  2. Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab 20%
  3. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt 9%
  4. Secretary Michael Gove 8%
  5. Former Commons Andrea Leadsom 6%
  6. Home Secretary Sajid Javid 6%
  7. Secretary Matt Hancock 5%
  8. Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt 5%
  9. Development Secretary Rory Stewart 5%

I have little doubt Boris would win the vote of members. But he has to finish in the two of the caucus votes, to make the membership vote.

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