The One News Colmar Brunton poll out tonight has the party vote as:
- National 47% (+2%)
- Labour 40% (-3%)
- Greens 7% (+1%)
- NZ First 4% (+1%)
- ACT 1% (nc)
This poll would see the Government out of office and a National/ACT Government. It is, off memory, the first public poll since the election to show a National-led Government, so this is significant.
This poll is actually quite similiar to the Newshub poll the night before. They both show:
- National ahead of Labour
- National up
- Labour down
- NZ First below 5%
- Greens over 5%
And even on the seat projection they are close. Newshub has CL with 62 seats and CR 58. ONCB has CR 61 and CL 59. This is well within the margin of error.
What both polls say is that an election at the moment would be a very very close result, either way. And they both say that Labour is losing support and National gaining.
Individual polls are not as important as the trend. So the next public poll (probably December) will be fascinating.