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April 11, 2020 8:00am by Kokila Patel

General Debate 11 April 2020

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PhilBest

Yesterday I had the good fortune to get a response from an international academic I respect, on the subject of computer modelling.
He is a hyper-logical thinker on the subject of model inputs. If it’s garbage in, garbage out, he’ll tell you very quickly why.
I posed to him the arguments that Kiwibloggers will be familiar with; that modellers can’t possibly get this latest pandemic right if they don’t know the rate of asymptomatic infection, which all the evidence now tells us is high. Plus it is most likely that the assumed date at which infections actually commenced, is completely wrong; none of them seem to be taking into account the diagnoses of “flu like illnesses” or “virus, unknown” that GP’s make all the time when patients present with symptoms. The rate of these diagnoses can quite easily not result in any alarm because there is a normal rate of them that COVID-19 in its early spread, won’t be exceeding. What if “patient zero” arrived from China in the middle of December?
The good Professor agreed, but told me, don’t concentrate on those arguments. The one thing to concentrate on to cut through the crap, is “year-on-year mortality rate from all causes”. Is it unusually high – Yes / No?
The answer for virtually all countries at the current time, is “No”.
I keep asking why “experts” in human health with a particular role in advising governments about far-reaching policy approaches, aren’t interested in logic as the underlying guiding principle in anything.
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April 11, 2020 8:00am
- Brian McDonald
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  “I keep asking why “experts” in human health with a particular role in advising governments about far-reaching policy approaches, aren’t interested in logic as the underlying guiding principle in anything.”
  What a stupid question, aren’t interested in logic. If it wasn’t just an imaginary friend – she or he must have thought ‘another blinking mind reader that knows everything, including what people they’ve never met, or read their work, think.’
  Did you get a little groupie gold star?
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:17am
- SGA
  
  The one thing to concentrate on to cut through the crap, is “year-on-year mortality rate from all causes”.
  
  Well, he’s not as hyper-logical as you think then. You need to look at year-on-year mortality rate from disease-related causes. One might expect that during lockdowns that vehicle-related deaths and work-place accidents, for example, would actually decrease. Conversely, suicide deaths, for example, might increase.
  
  The answer for virtually all countries at the current time, is “No”.
  
  Do you have a reputable link for that (not some flaky blog)? I’ve wondered that myself and I would like to have a look at the data. Thanks in advance.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:38am
  - PhilBest
    
    I think he and I understand that. So if we are saving lives as our first objective, we should just make lockdown level 4 conditions permanent, right?
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:32am
    - SGA
      
      I think he and I understand that.
      
      I was a little surprised that your hyper-logical “expert” would make such a rookie oversight, to be honest.
      
      So if we are saving lives as our first objective, we should just make lockdown level 4 conditions permanent, right?
      
      That doesn’t follow logically from my comment, hyper-logically or otherwise. I agree that a better way to get an accurate measure of Covid-19s effects would be to compare mortality rates for disease-related deaths over a similar period from last year. That’s why I am interested to have a look at the figures you seem to have access to.
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:53am
      - PhilBest
        
        Why would deaths from all causes be a significantly different measure to disease-related deaths, when it is variations we are looking for? If we’ve had a war with bombs falling, or a massively lethal volcano eruption, we’d know that, wouldn’t we? Otherwise deaths from non-disease causes are pretty steady are they not?
        
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        April 11, 2020 3:48pm
      - SGA
        
        Phil, if you go back and read my first reply to you, you will see I mention how in might interact. Your hyper-logical expert will tell you that you will get a more accurate analysis by avoiding such confounds.
        More important, how are you getting on with a link to those data, because I am genuinely curious to look. I think it’s an valid question.
        
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        April 11, 2020 5:24pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        SGA. Surely it is obvious he has no such data – it is not needed for his sort of speculations.
        
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        April 11, 2020 5:31pm
      - SGA
        
        I have wondered that he might just be a bullshit artist, but I am hoping not. It would be an interesting way to look at the nett effect of Covid-19 when a lot of the deaths are with people with underlying conditions.
        Time will tell I suppose.
        
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        April 11, 2020 6:09pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Wonder no more – he is full of bullshit, although no artist.
        
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        April 11, 2020 6:16pm
    - surfing
      
      I can agree it is a difficult situation.
      
      If we stay at level 4 then deaths from economic collapse (national healthcare collapse) will eventually surpass covid-19 related deaths.
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:01am
  - surfing
    
    I agree .
    
    This lockdown screws all sorts of interdependent variables relating to physical/mental health and causes of mortality.
    
    One variable goes up, another goes down , isolating variables when so many are fluctuating gets difficult.
    
    Using year-on-year mortality rate as a yardstick also assumes that we have done nothing to curtail this virus. Maybe no change means that we are actually successfully managing the pandemic?
    
    Ideally you need some first world nation to volunteer to be the ‘control’ test.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:54am
- tom hunter
  
  I put my take on the problems with the models here at No Minister: Models vs. Reality.
  
  And yes, almost all the links are to epidemiologists. To say the least, Ferguson and his Imperial College model are going to get the sort of revision they should have had a decade ago when they also totally over-estimated the Swine Flu death tolls – by several orders of magnitude. And that’s not even the first time they’ve boobed.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:56am
  - PhilBest
    
    It was their modelling that led to millions of livestock being needlessly (in hindsight) slaughtered during “mad cow disease”.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:33am
- The Proper Ghandi
  
  “I keep asking why “experts” in human health with a particular role in advising governments about far-reaching policy approaches, aren’t interested in logic as the underlying guiding principle in anything”
  
  Because logic is objective and is indifferent to someone’s ideology, motives or aims. If your aim is to mislead people, then logic is typically not your friend.
  
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  April 11, 2020 12:14pm
- Ipanema69
  
  Great post Phil. Just to add a bit.
  
  Iceland has now managed to randomly test 10% of its population for Covid-19 infections. The testing was conducted at random by literally picking numbers from the telephone directory.
  
  The results of this testing have been used to establish a 95% confidence interval for the overall rate of population infection. This range is 0.3% to 0.8%.
  
  Note that this testing was the standard test for presence of the virus i.e. an infection. The majority of these cases are asymptomatic.
  
  If you apply these infection percentages to the New Zealand population it would yield anywhere between 14,000 & 39,000 current infections.
  
  Accordingly the number of deaths required to support a 0.1% fatality rate is between 14 and 39.
  
  Thus far we have had 4 deaths with a further 15 individuals in hospital.
  
  At the absolute worst Covid-19 is a bad ‘flu season.
  
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  April 11, 2020 2:16pm
  - PhilBest
    
    Excellent, I’ve seen a bit on Iceland but you’re right up to date.
    
    Anecdotal evidence from hospitals in the USA that have been randomly testing everyone who comes in for any reason whatsoever (eg injury), is that a significant percentage of people have an asymptomatic COVID-19 infection.
    
    This changes everything; it means herd immunity arrives far faster than any model assuming “confirmed infections” are close to synonymous with total infections rather than only a minority of them. The famous “exponential growth rate in infections”, expressed in asymptomatic cases commencing from as early as mid January, gives us an “already immune” cohort at herd-immunity tipping point probably “about now”. Hence curves peaking in Aussie, Sweden etc – and lockdowns in March making stuff-all difference anywhere.
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:45pm
- krazykiwi
  
  Totally agree about the YoY mortality stats. I started a dataset on some of these four weeks ago. The UK Office of National Statistics publishes weekly with a 10 day lag. That’s pretty good velocity for tracking purposes.
  
  I expect to see a drop in mortalities vs 5yr average over H2:2020, reflecting a belief that Covid-19 has been hastening deaths that would have ordinarily occurred.
  
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  April 11, 2020 2:38pm
PhilBest

At last someone has done a study based on antibodies tests! The University of Bonn in Germany has carried out a randomised sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicentres of the outbreak in Germany. They found that 2 percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 per cent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected – whether or not they experienced any symptoms. While this is just a small sample in its own right, it links with previous studies, and suggests a fatality rate of 0.37 per cent, significantly below the 0.9 per cent which Imperial College London has estimated. The more examples we can piece together, the clearer the impact of Covid-19 becomes.
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April 11, 2020 8:01am
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  I will trust this only if Cindy explains to me over TV. Nothing else matters.
  p.s. I am a Sheeple.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:50am
  - doggone7
    
    You know that the ‘experts’ advising her don’t know their stuff. Those who get jobs advising those who need to front and talk to us are second raters who couldn’t get decent credible jobs.
    
    The real experts are those we’re finding on websites and ‘international academics’ who aren’t in our government’s quote pool and don’t have the distraction of being up to their eye-balls in direct work but instead have the luxury of being sideline commentators.
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:30pm
    - Simon Gotlieb
      
      Jesus, you sound like an anti-vaxxer.
      
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      April 11, 2020 2:02pm
      - JackRabbit
        
        Simon: I believe Jesus was a carpenter.
        
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        April 11, 2020 2:28pm
    - Akarak
      
      JA doesn’t need experts. She relies on her ‘friends’ to tell her what to do.
      
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      April 11, 2020 5:12pm
- stewmar
  
  That’s 18,500 NZ deaths at 0.37%, not a catastrophe
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:23am
- Michael NZ
  
  Link Phil Best??
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:50am
  - PhilBest
    
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate
    
    If it’s behind a paywall for you, just Google the town name and the other details, the story is on numerous sites.
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:52pm
    - curry4me
      
      PhilBest: Ah, the Speccie. Top notch journalism. In the late 90s, I saw an article in it by Joan Collins, of all people. My first thought was
      “What would she know about anything”? However, it read like it was written by a literate adult, and I was pleasantly surprised.
      
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      April 11, 2020 6:44pm
- Overworked
  
  The population death rate might be 0.37% in that study, but the case fatality rate, which most discussion is based on, is higher. How high will probably vary from country to country depending on population and environmental characteristics as well as the healthcare available locally.
  
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  April 11, 2020 2:38pm
The Police

The penny has finally dropped.

This ‘crisis’ has NOTHING to do with the coronavirus-19 which is yet another manifestation of the winter cold and flu.

THIS CRISIS IS A WAR WITH CHINA BY OTHER MEANS.

The war is over China’s ENORMOUS gains in influence world wide as well as it’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and it’s acquisition of mineral assets globally including Africa.

THIS IS NOT A WAR AGAINST A VIRUS. ITS A WAR WITH CHINA BY OTHER MEANS.

Just as well the West got its tourists – potential hostages – out of China in January!

Prepare for the blowback from the increasing shrill demands for REPARATIONS!
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April 11, 2020 8:06am
- Simon
  
  Wumao
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:56am
- greybeard
  
  The Police: I tend to agree with you.
  Here is an email I sent to Mike Hosking in Feb 2018.
  
  “Mike, every morning you get excited about the number of tourists coming to NZ, of whom ( apart from Australians ) the biggest source are Chinese.
  Every morning you applaud the amount of investment being made in terms of accommodation, activities, infrastructure, restaurants etc. In fact you subscribe to the view that there is a chronic lack of accommodation .
  
  Well, what do you think will happen when the Chinese government tells its citizens to stop coming to NZ ?
  All those new hotels and motels and outdoor activities and rental car companies and restaurants will go broke. Very quickly. Their values will plummet.
  And who do you think will then step in and buy them up?
  Yep. The Chinese.
  
  They already control our dairy, wood, sheepmeat and wool industries.
  
  China is still a communist country which hates the west and is currently waging a war with the west: not a militaristic war but an economic war. They intend to invest in / buy out / trade with / whatever to the point where they control the economies of western nations. And not just the West: Africa and the Pacific are prime examples.”
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:09am
  - Harriet
    
    This came up about the Chinese in Canberra a week or so ago – the government has said they are watching very closely at corporate shareholdings and business buy outs.
    
    You rarely hear of Chinese being on the dole in Aussie and I’d suspect lots will head back to China until things improve and they can return to full time work.
    However there will be major immigration changes once this is over — the allegations of what Chinese visa holders and Chinese owned businesses have been doing is beyond shameless, it’s traitorous in these times.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:47am
    - curry4me
      
      Harriett: I wonder if ‘Chinese exclusion acts’ will come back into vogue , like they were in the late 19th, and early 20th centuries? I wouldn’t support them.
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:29am
  - freethinker
    
    greybeard – A lot of truth in what you say , an unintended consequence for China is internal unrest as many Chinese are already angry at their Govts lies & deceit over Wu Flu and Hong Kong is an example of how it is impossible to control people with force when they are the same people you need to maintain you basic infrastructure of food & good.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:30am
    - curry4me
      
      freethinker: I guess they’ll be angry at losing their jobs because tens of millions of people have decided to leave Chinese goods on the shelf.
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:31am
  - JackRabbit
    
    Spoiler alert.
    
    Chinese have been buying up hotels, motels etc for many years. They come here, they work hard, don’t spend frivolously, and amass capital and buy businesses. The common thing I hear from these business owners, is that Kiwi employees are lazy. They would rather go on the dole than take a lowly job cleaning motel rooms.
    
    You will find many Chinese who have worked hard to buy motels might actually drive an expensive Mercedes. They did it through hard work, and despite their wealth, many work 15 hour days, and many of whom clean the motel rooms because they cannot get good NZ workers who do a fair days work for a fair day’s pay.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:46am
  - ISeeRed
    
    How does China “control” our dairy, wood, sheepmeat and wool industries? I’m no fan of Chinese “investment” in our economy but this seems like hyperbole.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:10am
    - Nickc2
      
      The country that buys the goods controls the price. If and when China decides not to buy the %age of our exports they currently do, we are F_d unless we can find other markets. Remember, we are competing with many other countries to sell the same goods to the same markets.
      China can go anywhere to buy the goods they get from us and often at a cheaper price.
      
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      April 11, 2020 12:05pm
      - Maggy Wassilieff
        
        Yep,
        that’s why they have our forestry industry by the short & curlies.
        
        There is no shortage of softwood logs in the world… Russia has an endless supply…and the Scandis & Canada can churn out an extraordinary tonnage.
        
        China can stop buying cheap radiata at any time and within a couple of months everything in NZ forestry grinds to a halt as logs pile up at our ports.
        
        You can’t store logs for more than a couple of months before they’re under beetle attack.
        
        Same with meat..If we cant export…. Our Chillers fill up with unsold meat… Freezing works slow down/close up, and come spring, farmers have a new lot of young animals competing for pasture with the stock that wasn’t taken to the Works.
        
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        April 11, 2020 3:07pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Not really the case for many commodity exports.
        
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        April 11, 2020 3:29pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  Do you place at home to hang your tin foil hat bro??
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:50am
Humble Capitalist

I got done COVID style in yesterdays game of monopoly with my teenage daughter. Landing on Mayfair/Park Lane with 3 houses a few times was enough to sink me. She offered to wave the rent but I said thats just very kind but Im toast even if you do. Quickest game of monopoly ever (about an hour I think), not too displeased about that to tell the truth haha! It all seemed rather familiar but my daughter didnt talk to me like Im a 4 year old when she made the offer.
Monopoly COVID edition I thoroughly recommend it!
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April 11, 2020 8:07am
- Gravelroad
  
  Monopoly in all its forms banned in this household years ago, Humble Capitalist.
  Too many fights, tantrums and even overturning of the board in fits of competitive raaaaaaage!
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:57am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Have not played for years, but it is a good thinking/dealing game. We used to play for 1 cent per dollar, so $500 monopoly was $5NZ.
  Drinking does not help I must add LOL
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:07am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Playing Monopoly with kids usually ended up as an earthquake at ours. Houses tipped over and scattered everwhere, a giant money scramble as the bank is distributed to the stratosphere and, everybody grumpy.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:08am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Monopoly is an awful game. It inevitably ends in an enormous victory for one player crushing the rest. There is no such thing as a close finish in Monopoly.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:36am
    - Steve Otto(North Shore)
      
      Yup, there is no second prize. Winning is paramount, then gloat for the rest of the day
      
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      April 11, 2020 9:50am
      - Humble Capitalist
        
        My feeling was relief when the game was finished quickly!
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:07am
      - stewmar
        
        Winning is paramount, then gloat for the rest of the day
        
        Just like real life eh
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:27am
    - freethinker
      
      Monopoly is all about the real world.
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:33am
      - Steve Otto(North Shore)
        
        Especially those who lose then want to destroy everything
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:05am
      - Simon Gotlieb
        
        Sadly it is like the real world, in that a small percentage of the population amass more than they need while a large percentage don’t have a hope in hell of getting anyway. And like the real world, luck seems to play a huge part, and the lucky ones think it’s because they somehow worked harder or smarter than those who weren’t so lucky.
        God help us all if the “losers” one day decide, in real life, to upturn the board.
        
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        April 11, 2020 2:12pm
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    I guess I played with people more responsible.
    Only saw a thermonuclear meltdown once
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:52am
  - SGA
    
    Playing Monopoly with kids usually ended up as an earthquake at ours.
    
    LOL – I don’t think I’ve ever been in a game of monopoly that got played to the end!
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:22am
  - Loddenthinks
    
    That’s pretty much the only way to play it in our house. Well it’s how every game seems to end.
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:26pm
- mikenmildagain
  
  ‘waive’ the rent
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:14am
  - Humble Capitalist
    
    Care factor negligible
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:03am
  - stewmar
    
    waive’ the rent
    
    Obviously not a landlord Milk
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:28am
    - Rachael Membery
      
      Wave it goodbye?
      
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      April 11, 2020 12:18pm
- Prince
  
  While the game is capitalist in intent, it does have the latest bright idea of the left intelligentsia – a Universal Basic Income. Not much, $200 a week, which is about the amount an true UBI would be today in NZ.
  However some changes would be necessary for it to become a truly Labour/Green-friendly activity.
  – Taxes need to increase dramatically, and be spread wider. Income Taxes and Property Tax. New Petrol taxes, WOF, Rego deducted from UBI, GST on every transaction. Extra taxes for landing on Electric Company, Waterworks or one of the Stations.
  Taxes are paid to a new ‘Kindness’ entity, who also extract $5,000 from the Bank as and when required.
  – Whitehall and Whitechapel are now Peopleofcolourhall and Rainbowchapel. Beauty Contests are banned.
  – Players are allowed 72 ‘Go To Jail’ offences before they actually have to go. Sentences reduced to one turn if they promise not to reoffend.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:49am
  - david
    
    No-one mentions Dead People Tax AKA Death Duties. Currently still on the books but set to zero. It would take only an Order from the Finance Minister to set the rate at Oh say 50% or even 80% (bids anyone?) and bank. Inherited wealth is a dirty concept to Socialists (yes even Socialist Youth, many of whom despise themselves for the wealth passed down in their own families) so what better way to raise revenue but to take all those Capital Gains from nasty property owners when they kick the bucket.
    Robertson will be laughing all the way to the bank.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:22am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      many of whom despise themselves for the wealth passed down in their own families
      
      You have to be joking!!!!
      
      Most folks of the left I socialised with for over 40 years plus loved inviting others to the family”bach” or showing us their overseas travel pics or regaling us with their family skiing adventures.
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:49am
      - sam green
        
        .
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:40pm
    - rangitoto
      
      If your name is Cindy, you get to change the rules at whim and arrest anyone leaving their house without permission.
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:50am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    We modified the rules. All taxes, fines, fees went to the center of the board. Land on ‘Free Parking” and you win it.
    Bit like welfare
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:45am
  - Nickc2
    
    After a few games, I soon learnt that the game was rigged insofar as it was only Maoris who got Get out of Jail Free cards. But I must admit that was only after Andrew Little became involved and took the game under his union’s umbrella.
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:15pm
  - Belinda
    
    Maybe if you went around the board on a bike or walked, you’d get an extra $5 as you passed go.
    
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    April 11, 2020 4:08pm
    - Prince
      
      True, but to be succesful you need to travel fast to land on as many squares as possible. Keep out of Jail, Make good choices about your properties. Collect your debts.. Invest as much as possible – having lots of dead-weight cash is fatal.
      
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      April 11, 2020 6:56pm
Steve James

About a week ago the Chinese Comunist government went to the aid of West Bank and Gaza with ventilators and other supplies. The CCP picked sides in the Palastinian Israeli conflict some years back.
Since this “aid” was “given” only four people in this area have contracted Coronavirus. I reckon more like fudged figures, just like from China.
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April 11, 2020 8:10am
jv

“and next week …said she will outline what life under alert level 3 might look like”
People will begin to resent and turn off endless preachy detail on what they can and can’t do being delivered at a prolonged daily stand up TV show for journalists. We need to know more than permission for greenkeepers to mow their greens etc etc.
We are not all stupid. Give us the policy direction and a framework/plan to absorb and work through in week 4 so we can get on with our lives post universal home detention.
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April 11, 2020 8:13am
- Simon
  
  MSM talking up the Wuhan virus, as the Black Death and how Ardern is saving us all, with all their might. Not going to work. After the virus dies off all that will be left is an utterly destroyed economy.
  
  The memory of the virus will fade but Ardern’s joblessness ruin will remain.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:05am
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    But but but….according to MSM and Wendie Petrie, if Jacinda has not saved us 40,000 of us would have died….But but but….Cindy also promised 100,000 houses….
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:53am
    - stewmar
      
      Cindy also promised 100,000 houses….
      
      She also promised to eliminate child poverty but but …..,
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:32am
      - JackRabbit
        
        Eliminate Child poverty
        Eliminate Suicides
        
        Get rid of all the blowflies in the country. Oh sorry that was some other country leader as part of a Communist Five Plan.
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:50am
- Tony Stuart
  
  She can’t, because they don’t yet have a plan. Making it up as you go along will no longer cut the mustard.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:20am
  - SGA
    
    She can’t, because they don’t yet have a plan.
    
    A friend asked me something similar this morning – would we just go to Level 3 after Level 4. My response was that I expected that governments would tailor such responses to the circumstances at the time. To a certain extent they must be flexible, because exactly what the situation will be in 1 or 2 weeks, say, isn’t fixed in stone. We might go to Level 3, some mix of Level 3 and 2, or Level 4 in some parts of the country that look a bit dodgy and something else in other places. To me, this is just common sense.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:54am
    - JackRabbit
      
      This is not common sense. Discrimination WILL cause riots as some businesses will be favoured over others causing competitors to take business off those still closed.
      
      Anything other than a simple staged windback as it wound up wil lbe chaos. You think people are grumbling now, just wait.
      
      And Robertson has indicated that this is what will happen. “Learning lessons from how we were hasty with the Level 54 lockdown.”
      
      “You have been wrongly arrested and we were hasty about that. We have learned our lesson. We are going to be less hasty in giving you back your freedom.”
      
      Be afraid, be very afraid.
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:57am
      - SGA
        
        Be afraid, be very afraid.
        
        I confess that I do find your comments unsettling, but probably not for the reasons you’d expect 🙂
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:04am
      - JackRabbit
        
        @sga
        
        Lets come back to this is a few weeks.
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:30am
    - JackRabbit
      
      @SGA 09:54
      
      Yes, it does have to be handled based on the situation at the time. But you are assigning too much rationality to a government that has an ongoing pattern of irrational decisions, including the handling of this entire saga from the beginning.
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:38am
      - SGA
        
        Yes, it does have to be handled based on the situation at the time.
        
        That’s my point. And who knows what the situation will be in a week’s time. How many cases will we have had over the preceding days? Will they be scattered or localised? If localised, how tight is it (Canterbury, Christchurch, or Sydenham)? How difficult would it be to isolate a localisation (e.g., Gisborne versus Henderson, say)? Anyone still thinking about things in a Plan A and Plan B way has really not thought it through.
        
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        April 11, 2020 12:04pm
      - JackRabbit
        
        @SGA
        
        SGA, there is no disagreeing that it has to be handled based on the situation at the time. But it is not what has to be done, but who is doing the doing and do they have a track record of expertise.
        
        Do you really expect those that got us into this mess by over reaction, competent enough to get us out? Especially when do to so objectively requires a degree of honesty never before seen?
        
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        April 11, 2020 1:38pm
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Tony bro – With the IQ of the Sheeple we have here “anything goes”. Listen to this song and be happy Cindy is there to save your back:
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DeURx3mYck&pbjreload=10
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:55am
- Paulus
  
  Waddaya mean “preachy” ?
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:20am
AC

I note a study in a German town that was the Wuhan of Germany showed that 15% of the population had been infected whether they knew it or not. The death rate was 0.22%. In NZ context that would mean around 500,000 cases with 1,000 deaths. The town has around 12000 people and 1000 of them took blood tests .
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April 11, 2020 8:14am
- PhilBest
  
  It is curious how nations have epicentres that are unrepresentative of the nation as a whole. Yes if that one town’s stats are applied to NZ, 500,000 infections and 1,000 deaths. But if these stats were also appplied to Germany as a whole, it would mean 27,000 deaths. So far they have had 1/10th of that.
  
  It also matters that they are just ending their flu season. We are just starting ours. Time will tell whether this is a major factor. No-one seems to have considered that total lockdown wasn’t necessary (level 2 would have done) at the stage when the virus isn’t yet truly deadly – herd immunity is worth going for if it reduces “deaths later” by more than they are “increased” right now. But we missed that opportunity.
  
  I just read something about Portugal, which is mysteriously looking good. All the experts can say is that perhaps they underestimated the results of “people just acting sensibly”. In all the epicentres, people were not yet acting fully sensibly until it was too late. NYC is run by progressive twats (even the Health Commissioner) who were telling everyone that the big danger was Trumpian xenophobia, so get out there and shop and party in Chinatown to make a statement!
  
  Even Nancy Pelosi did a televised publicity stunt, she’s lucky if she didn’t actually get COVID-19 from it. The chutzpah of these people a few weeks later is freakin’ unbeleivable.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:16am
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  “In NZ context that would mean around 500,000 cases with 1,000 deaths” – Does this mean Cindy has saved 998 lives? Wow, I worship her.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:56am
- JackRabbit
  
  You can play with stats all you like. As Philbest says that certain towns are not representative of the country as a whole.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:59am
- Ian Boag
  
  Everything I have read says antibody (blood) tests are still too flaky for general use – even for statistical
  (as opposed to diagostic) purposes. That’s why the UK canned an order for several million kits from China.
  
  So I am a bit confused about it was OK to use them on a small sample in some little German town?
  
  Please don’t misunderstand me. I think that a reliable blood test would be a super-weapon to help manage this thing until there is a vaccine. Does this result mean we now have one?
  
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  April 11, 2020 2:22pm
  - PhilBest
    
    Actually I strongly believe the rate of asymptomatic infection should be far higher than the 15% shown in that study, so I find your comment helpful.
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:55pm
Steve James

Picked this up on Facebook.

*SOMETHING IS FISHY!!*?

Wuhan to Shanghai = 839km
Wuhan to Beijing = 1,152km
Wuhan to Milan = 15,000km
Wuhan to NY = 15,000km

The Coronavirus started in Wuhan yet there is no effect of Coronavirus in nearby Beijing or Shanghai but many deaths in Italy, Iran, European countries and USA.

All business areas of China are now safe.

*Something is fishy.*

America is not just blaming China without a reason.

Even today, India is locked down but all the cities of China are open. China has also announced the opening of Wuhan from April 08. Not a single leader in China has tested positive for the deadly Coronavirus.

*Something is fishy.*

The virus has ruined many economies around the world. Many have had to close their borders in an attempt to contain and control the spread of the Coronavirus. Thousands have lost their lives, millions have now got this disease, countless people have been locked in their homes and many countries have placed their citizens on lock down.

*Something is fishy.*

The Coronavirus orginated from the city of Wuhan in China and has now reached every corner of the world, but the virus did not reach China’s capital Beijing and China’s Economic Capital Shanghai, located in close proximity to Wuhan itself.

*Something is fishy*

Today Paris is closed, New York is closed, Berlin is closed, Delhi is closed, Mumbai is closed, Tokyo is closed, the world’s major economic and political centers are closed, but Beijing and Shanghai are open.

No Coronavirus effect is seen in either cities. There were only a few cases but the virus had no real effect on Beijing and Shanghai.

*Something is fishy.*

Beijing is the city where all the leaders of China live, including their military leaders. There is no lock down in Beijing.

*Something is fishy*

Shanghai is the city that runs China’s economy. It is the economic capital of China, where all the rich people of China live and run major industries. There is no lock down here, there is no effect of the Coronavirus there.

*Something is fishy*

Beijing and Shanghai are the areas adjoining Wuhan. The virus from Wuhan reached every corner of the world, but the virus did not affect Beijing and Shanghai.

*Something is fishy*

Another big thing is, that the worldwide share market has fallen by almost half. In India also the Nifty has gone from 12 thousand to 7 thousand, but the share market of China was at 3000 and just merely dropped to 2700.

*Something is fishy*

This leaves one to speculate that the Coronavirus is a bio-chemical weapon of China, which China used to carry out destruction in the world in order to gain economic supremacy.

China has now put this virus under control, maybe they also have the antidote/ vaccine that they are not sharing with the world ever or will do when it is in their best interest to do so.

*Something is fishy*

Hollywood stars, Australia’s Home Minister, Britain’s Prime Minister and Health Minister, Spain’s Prime Minister’s wife, Canada’s Prime Minister’s wife, and Britain’s Prince Charles, among others, have contracted the Coronavirus, but

NOT A SINGLE POLITICAL LEADER IN CHINA, NOT A SINGLE MILITARY COMMANDER in China have tested positive for Coronavirus.

*SOMETHING IS FISHY!!!!*
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April 11, 2020 8:16am
- PhilBest
  
  I’ve been arguing something along these lines about NZ. With tens of flights per week bringing people in from China, our “patient zero” wasn’t infected until weeks after patient zero in Northern Italy? I find that fishy. If we re-did our modelling based on a realistic start date and deadliness rate, we’d be quite pleasantly mystified about how kind this virus is to Kiwis. It must listen to our PM
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:04am
- kowtow
  
  Niall Ferguson , historian , asks of President Xi .
  
  Why did you shut off Wuhan from the rest of China , but not Hubei to the rest of the world.
  
  Meanwhile our Media Party obsesses about the Evil Orange .
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:01am
  - PhilBest
    
    Fwooar, that’s a burning question! Why hasn’t anyone else been asking that long ago? Niall Ferguson is a wise man.
    
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    April 11, 2020 4:02pm
- Liberty
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  Just another anti Chinese rant.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:08am
  - kowtow
    
    Don’t be stupid , it’s not anti Chinese , it’s anti CCP .
    
    Big difference.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:52am
- Michael NZ
  
  Chinese vaccinated population for TB, but not Wuhan??
  
  Wuhan controlled by other faction than Xi’s.
  Now the political leaders in Wuhan deposed for their efforts against China Virus?? (Unherd)
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:22am
- Critical Thinker
  
  China lied, tens of thousands around the world died ☠️??
  
  There has to be severe economic sanctions & condemnations on the CCP from every civilised nation, due to this unarguable fact.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:32am
  - curry4me
    
    Critical Thinker: There will be. You can help by leaving Chinese goods on the shelf, and telling management why. There is talk in America of moving supply chains to Mexico. That country already makes et engines, and cars. It’s close to the USA, and has a new trade agreement. It might reverse the flow of illegal immigrants. Of course the narco-war there is a problem.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:42am
- freethinker
  
  Steve James – Total deaths in China about 3000, 10,000 Ashes Urns delivered to WuHan something is very fishy, hints are that Covid deaths are likely 120,000 +.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:44am
  - NoCash
    
    You do realise people do die daily in a city of 11 millions, with or without covid-19, just saying.
    
    For example, in 2018 33,225 people died in NZ, an average of 2769 per month. Wuhan was in lockdown for 2.5 months and has a population of 2.2 times of NZ (11 million / 5 million), so even without covid-19, there would be at least 15,230 deaths in Wuhan during the lockdown.
    
    Not a good comparison I agree as Wuhan isn’t NZ, but you get the idea.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:47am
- chwaga
  
  My next door neighbour arrived back from Beijing a month ago and the dramatic lockdown conditions that he described to me give lie to the above statements. Each apartment has one pass and only one person from each apartment allowed out of the complex at any one time. Temperature taken when leaving the complex and again when leaving the complex compound and again when entering the supermarket. The same on the way back. If one person in the apartment building tests positive then the whole apartment building is locked down and nobody is allowed to leave. All shopping then has to be done in bulk for the complex and orders delivered together to the compound.
  
  He was flabergasted at the lax attitude here and commented that only one person at a time from each household in our cul de sac would be allowed to leave the street
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:20pm
  - PhilBest
    
    But even without the lockdown, we weren’t having a problem like they have. It must be to do with pollution, sanitation, housing, population density, flu season, environment (cold, damp winter / spring etc)
    
    Kiwis should STOP listening to horror stories from “over there” as if they apply here!!
    
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    April 11, 2020 4:04pm
MrTips

Take this shit from one Matthew Knott writing at the The Age. Apparently, America got its coronavirus response “horribly wrong”. Yet, in the story it acknowledges that even Fauci admits measures taken could have saved over 150,000 lives (well, actually no, the models are crap, as this recent publication in the BMJ admits when it says “This review indicates that proposed models are poorly reported, at high risk of bias, and their reported performance is probably optimistic”).

But there is another publicly available, obvious truth here. Worldodometer.

If you consider that the USA has an equivalent population to Spain, France, Italy and Germany, what happens?

Total current cases USA: 494,000
Total current cases ESP/IT/DE/FR: 548,000

Total deaths USA: 18,300
Total deaths ESP/IT/DE/FR: 53,500

Current serious cases USA: 11,000
Current serious cases ESP/IT/DE/FR: 20,700

It must gall Siouxsie Wiles and all the left wing media types that the USA hasn’t fallen over. The worse hit areas have been controlled by shitty useless mayors (Cuomo and DeBlasio).

If you want real concerning areas, try Turkey, Malaysia and Iran. And don’t count Sg out as a major hub for continuing infection in Asia, due to its highly mobile (and economically vital) migrant worker population. And everyone knows China is lying through its teeth.

USA a failure? My arse it is. Not perfect, but no worse than anywhere else.
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April 11, 2020 8:19am
- euro2019
  
  What is new!!! all these so-called experts and professors have constantly their modelling completely wrong so it was also with the climate change model, swine flue, ebola etc. and still most of the people still believing all this crap and making decisions based on crap models.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:04am
- Simon
  
  “And everyone knows China is lying through its teeth.”
  
  Frequent NZ MSM attacks on Trump but silent about China.
  
  “After it became clear that there was a full-blown epidemic spreading from Wuhan to the rest of Hubei province, why did you cut off travel from Hubei to the rest of China — on Jan. 23 — but not from Hubei to the rest of the world?”
  
  https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1247498209561206785
  
  Six questions for Xi Jinping, US edition: 1. What exactly was going on in Wuhan that led to the initial emergence of SARS-CoV-2?
  
  The role CCP played in spreading the virus utterly overlooked by NZ MSM. But all the TDS on display.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:13am
  - Michael NZ
    
    Simon
    4400 odd people a month went from Hubai to USA direct, a month Dec Jan Feb.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:25am
  - Redapplefalls
    
    What a devastating article by Niall Ferguson. Nicely spotted.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:51am
  - Nickc2
    
    Finally, finally, NZers are getting the message. All without the assistance and pushing of our F_n MSM. As I page upward through all the Pink Comments, a common thread is developing. [Deleted by Mod] How are we going to hold the Chinese responsible, I don’t know. We could boycott all their imports and/or we could ban all our exports to China. Either way, we are the losers. Did we see this coming? Probably not but more to the point, were we looking? Did we have a plan for such an event? No! Will we have one in the future? Maybe? Will the plan be continually updated to cater for shifts in world events and technology? Probably not.
    
    [Mod note: we’re not a host for false conspiracies]
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:03pm
  - NoCash
    
    I remember within days of the Wuhan / Hubei lockdown, the Chinese govt also banned group tours within China and going overseas. Granted, they didn’t ban independent travellers from going overseas though.
    
    Now that the US is the new epicentre, has the USA banned Americans from going overseas? Probably a moot point now I agree.
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:55pm
- PhilBest
  
  Thanks for that, Mr Tips. I couldn’t agree more, and I’ll be pleased to spread those numbers around.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:18am
- Fletch
  
  The models out of the U.S have been terrible. The experts were saying 1.5 million to 2 million in the United States would die if they didn’t mitigate, revised later to saying 100,000 to 140,000 would die, then 82,000 would die, to Fauci’s latest prediction of 60,000 give or take. In reality, slightly less than 90,000 people worldwide have died of the virus…
  
  So where do they get these ridiculous figures from?
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:40am
  - PhilBest
    
    Basic error of logic. They don’t understand asymptomatic infection at high rates, exponentially leading to herd immunity.
    
    They are working from “confirmed infections” and assuming mortality rates from that, then extrapolating across the entire population.
    
    For some past viral pandemics there was apparently no such thing as asymptomatic infection, if you got it, you got crook. These people are incredibly slow taking on current information, it’s like wartime leaders still using WW2 tactics in Vietnam
    
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    April 11, 2020 4:08pm
- Greg Ettridge
  
  USA is sitting 14 from the top in death rates.
  Impossible to compare using a combination of countries that have different death rates.
  here are todays tallies, deaths per million.
  Spain 344
  Italy 312
  France 202
  Germany 33
  USA 56
  Australia 2
  NZ .4
  World average if u can believe it, 13.2.
  USA is number 14 on the list.
  
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  April 11, 2020 12:34pm
Luke Piewalker

… waiting for Cindy to add on a 50% rich pricks tax to pay our fair share for all of her kindness

Message to Cindy. Get stuffed.

Stop spraying money around with a leaf blower instead
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April 11, 2020 8:19am
- Tony Stuart
  
  Higher taxes are coming, whether we like it or not. Of course, they won’t be foreshadowed any time this side of the General Election…
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:22am
  - kowtow
    
    As long as “we’re” all in this “together” and “united” I’ll take it on the chin .
    But we all know that won’t be the case and the “aristos” are going to be screwed over ,as usual, to pay for this.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:06am
  - DeepBlue
    
    Somehow the Opposition have to fight and get that message out. If they don’t succeed, they don’t deserve to govern.
    
    T&G are working for govn on the lockdown messages. Whichever campaign T&G get behind will probably win the election. It comes down to two guys deciding their preferred direction for NZ – that really is quite scary.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:11am
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  This is how Cindy will pitch the 50% tax. “To pay for free education and free hospital services, the rich should pay a ‘little bit more’, just 17 cents a dollar more”. This is the same trick führer Huluun Clarkie used when she introduced a 39 cents dollar rich prick tax.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:13am
  - whostoblame
    
    And the she devil will revisit capital gains even after saying she wouldn’t implement during her time as PM. The line will be “these are unprecedented times”. The debate will be drawn between the haves and the have nots. Of course this tax will not be discussed prior to the election.
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:06pm
    - Nickc2
      
      Of course it won’t, but we all know what a liar she is.
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:13pm
    - calendar girl
      
      I wouldn’t trust her not to return to a capital gains tax, immediately after any successful outcome (for her) in the forthcoming General Election.
      
      During the Election campaign itself, she could deny any prospect of a CGT, then on regaining the Treasury Benches moving early to instigate such a CGT. The ‘excuse’, of course, would be her ‘shock’ at finding ‘the books in much worse a state’ than the (former) Government had revealed.
      
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      April 11, 2020 3:23pm
Justitia

According to Stuff it was Jacinda’s friends overseas who advised her to go to lockdown: https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120954236. Not Sir Peter Gluckman nor Sir David Skegg nor Prof Michael Baker nor even Dr Ashley Bloomfield. Nor indeed the 120,000 NZers who signed a petition on 15 March calling on the government to act. Will we now need to await advice from her friends overseas before Jacinda decides on whether to let us come out of lockdown? Is there a vaccine for chronic narcissism?
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April 11, 2020 8:22am
- euro2019
  
  Taxinda is at its best an average fish n chips fryer and thsi even only as a part timer.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:05am
  - Harriet
    
    At least Pauline Hanson owned a fish and chip shop. 😎
    
    27 2
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    April 11, 2020 9:52am
  - igm
    
    She did not cook them, she only handed out the finished order, not even being entrusted to use the till or Eftpos.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:59am
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    If you wait for a little while, Audrey Not So Young will write a puff piece saying the entire world is in awe of Cindy’s fish and chips wrapping style and how a study is being conducted by the UN how it could save the world in times of crisis. Wendy Petrie with a beaming face will announce this as the first item in CBS (Cindy Broadcasting Service).
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:18am
- godruelf
  
  Cactus Kate in another great article points the finger at a Swiss Ball loving Ginger overseas friend as the source for Cindy’s inspiration https://asianinvasion2019.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-ashley-bloomfield-fan-twitter.html
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:06am
  - MrTips
    
    Yeah, I’d buy that. Cindy was the one holed up with Hughes in Paul Henry’s Bach trying to find the escape hatch via moonbeam King.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:18am
- Justitia
  
  WARNING: Stuff article contains information on Ardern’s thought processes which may be disturbing to rational people.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:07am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Those friends will be the ones who decide when the lockdown is lifted. I reckon they will advise her to extend by 2 to 4 weeks. They are more than likely to be loopy lefties. She has had a taste of socialism marxism communism and loves the control
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:17am
  - Tony Stuart
    
    It appears the PM has “lost” her friend Lizzie Marvelly, who over the last two weeks has been sceptical of the Government’s response. Here’s the end of today’s piece, for those without a Herald sub:
    
    I have no doubt that this lockdown has prevented deaths, but I wonder whether it has caused them too. Delays in medical screenings are just one potential danger. The other that looms large is the surge in mental distress that accompanies isolation and economic downturn. People have already lost their jobs. Some will lose their savings and homes. When some people hear the word “economy” they seem to think of evil corporates. The truth is that damage to the economy means damage to people and families. Having a job, financial security and the ability to connect with support networks are all protective factors that can prevent depression. Without those things, mental health can quickly go south.
    
    I’m saying all this as a bleeding heart lefty. I don’t say it to be callous. We absolutely must do what we can to protect our most vulnerable. As an asthmatic, I voluntarily stayed home as much as humanly possible in the three weeks leading up to lockdown. Our elderly, our sick and our people living with disabilities must be given extra protection (and income support), but now that our numbers are going down, how do we balance their needs with those losing their jobs, homes and mental health? Those whose cancer diagnoses are being delayed? They are vulnerable too, just in a different way.
    
    I certainly don’t envy our leaders the decisions they have to make, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t question them. Lives hang in the balance – threatened both by Covid-19 and a devastated economy. Frankly, both threats are terrifying.
    
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12323904
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:26am
    - KevO'Brien
      
      Someones has figured out that economics, health and life are integrated!
      
      32 1
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      April 11, 2020 9:56am
    - DeepBlue
      
      Jacinda make consider Lizzy a friend and listen to her. That’d be marvellous.
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:14am
    - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
      
      Something wrong with the Lizzie Marvel. May be her brain started working for the very first time??
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:21am
      - Steve Otto(North Shore)
        
        Found her second brain cell?
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:49am
      - Justitia
        
        Is Lizzy close to being deemed “non essential”?
        
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        April 11, 2020 12:16pm
      - whostoblame
        
        Ever since she lost a source of income, “Bauer Media”.
        
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        April 11, 2020 12:23pm
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Yup, get ready for another two weeks extension to save lives. Everybody will write or on TV say why that is the right decision.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:20am
- kevn
  
  @Just… fakebook and instagram friends?
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:26am
- Dougal10
  
  Her friends from when she was a communist youth leader.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:32am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    She was President of the International Union of Socialist Youth in 2008. That is only 12 years ago.
    Speech is on YouTube
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:55am
- Ruahine
  
  It could have been her two Communist ‘friends’ that run the W.H.O. that advised her.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:35am
- Nickc2
  
  and who might these overseas friends be?
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:15pm
herb1

We now have 2 deaths from/with Covid from 1283 cases.
Ardern originally claimed the modelling she based her decision to destroy the NZ economy suggested 40 -80000 deaths if she didn’t act. (If I was being cynical I would suggest she’s been acting since 2016)

Based on the ratio of 2 deaths to 1283 cases of covid there’d need to be a population of to reach the 80000 death rate of 51,320,000,and that assumes 100% infection rate.
She later reduced her death estimates to 10000 which still require a population of 6,415,000 of 100% infected New Zealanders.

Clearly her models are spectacularly wrong.
Why aren’t the media demanding to see these models or is Ardern simply lying again.

If Ardern is simply determined to save lives at whatever cost , will she start giving the death by suicide numbers at her daily PR conference.
Will she give the numbers of New Zealanders Dying daily of other illnesses?

On past averages ,during the lockdown phase alone , 654 New Zealanders have died from Heart disease and Cancer.
During the same period 1,285,479 people have died world wide just from these 2 diseases.
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April 11, 2020 8:22am
- euro2019
  
  And worse, all hospitals are virtually empty and now they have to lay-off doctors and nurses, well done NZ Government.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:07am
  - Michael NZ
    
    Labour Govt…
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:02am
    - whostoblame
      
      Coalition of Losers
      
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      April 11, 2020 12:25pm
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  Here’s the updated version (9 April) of the 80,000 deaths’ model
  
  https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c6/02/78/c60278393863d08d966be2f9aee62328.jpg
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:10am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Her pants are afire for sure.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:14am
- KevO'Brien
  
  We may have to consider the implications of responsibility of Ardern and Peters towards the people for their visitation of incompetence upon NZ.
  Others nations have reviewed their leadership.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:59am
  - kowtow
    
    The reckoning will come when the lock down ends and more and more people who feel like they’re on an extended Christmas break learn they have a very bleak future.
    
    To paraphrase an unfairly and much maligned Richard III , in what was Elizabethan political theatre , akin to what we’re seeing with this BatWuflu ….
    
    It will be a winter of discontent….
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:17am
    - KevO'Brien
      
      I was wondering if there were lessons to be learned from the French about rulership.
      
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      April 11, 2020 12:54pm
      - kowtow
        
        Hard to know really . Despite the free press and hype they get around revolution and singing La Marsellaise in Humphrey Bogart movies I don’t think France is a real democracy like the Anglo Saxon nations are . As Latins their temperament is suited to dictators and they do seem to have a love affair with tyrants such as N and they were very acquiescent appeasers in 1940. Very little in the history books about how they fought the Allies in Torch and Syria…….or failed to bring their powerful navy over.
        
        We just get fed lies a la Allo , Allo, which while very clever helps to cement the idea that they weren’t shit in ’39-45.
        
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        April 11, 2020 2:11pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark weren’t much chop in WWII, either. I guess they can’t count as ‘real’ democracies either.
        
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        April 11, 2020 3:37pm
- Stu2
  
  All the models are being modified – the effect of social isolation has been greater than they estimated.
  
  The US model has dropped from estimating 90k deaths, to 80k then 60k. The model is based on social isolation, but they didn’t expect americans to conform as well as they have
  
  The NZ 80k figure was what was anticipated without social isolation.
  Keep watching Sweden to see how that policy turns out. They have limited controls in place and their cases and deaths are growing but not wildly yet.
  
  BTW the three NZ models have been released
  – the original Auck uni model
  – the one the govt used (hard to figure out how the controls that were modelled line up with levels 2,3,4)
  – the replacement which looks at what would happen with and without level 4.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:11am
  - PhilBest
    
    Some of the experts are now saying they underestimated the effect of “people just acting sensibly” in the weeks before governments starting applying indiscriminate house arrest.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:41am
  - JackRabbit
    
    “The NZ 80k figure was what was anticipated without social isolation.”
    
    As Herb1 said 80,000 deaths would require a population of 51 million and 100% infection rate.
    
    So far out of the ball park it is not funny.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:12am
    - Stu2
      
      He has compared deaths with total cases, but the vast majority of those cases are yet to resolve.
      
      With two people critical in ICU, and 20 rest home inhabitants infected there are going to be more than 2 deaths from the cases known now.
      
      At this stage the NZ death rate is 2/(2+373)= 0.5%
      (we have 2 dead and 373 recovered as at Friday)
      
      So the NZ death rate has been very low so far. The auck uni model used a death rate of 1% of resolved cases (recovered or dead), which looked reasonable based on what was happening offshore.
      
      Some comparisons
      Germany – they have done more tests per capita than us so the number of cases denominator is Ok, and their hospital system has not been overloaded.
      2,767 deaths, 122,171 cases with 53,913 recovered death rate 4.9% =2767/(2767+53913)
      
      Or Switzerland – they have done even more tests per capita than Germany.
      1,002 deaths, 24,551 cases, 11,100 recovered
      death rate 8.3% = 1002/(1002+11100)
      
      NZ could have experienced a worse outcome than the 1% death rate used. Modellers have to use a value that lines up with international experience and then adjust later if the local reality is different
      
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      April 11, 2020 12:43pm
      - Paulus
        
        Two more deaths reported today – Four in all.
        
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        April 11, 2020 1:16pm
      - Stu2
        
        Todays numbers are 4 deaths and 422 recovered, so the NZ death rate is 4/(4+422)=0.96%
        
        Pretty much what the Auckland model used (1%)
        
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        April 11, 2020 1:43pm
      - JackRabbit
        
        As someone else has said, when this is all over you will find the number who were actually exposed but asymptomatic is several times the number reported. It will into the tens of thousands if not greater. The death rate of all those infected is still lower than the flu. Since lockdown, using average figures, approximately 18-20 will have died from other flu variants.
        
        If you fly cattle class on smaller domestic aeroplanes and one person has a new variant of the flu, pretty much everyone gets exposed. Whether you test positive will depend on whether your primary immune system kept you safe, and that will depend on the quality of air containing the flu you inhaled.
        
        The complexity and efficiency with which the lungs primary defences work, mean that you could breathe in a virus, have the defence mechanisms encase or “eat” the virus vapour drops and transport then out of the lungs to be safely swallowed or removed by nose blowing in under 20-60 minutes depending on the health of your lungs. The body is incredibly fast acting when it needs to be.
        
        Your body will already have tagged the invaders and created anti-bodies to ward off a full infection in the future should it arise. The only symptom you may have, if at all, is reaching for a tissue as you feel a sneeze coming on or the need to blow you nose. If tested for a specific virus you were exposed to, you will test negative, but you will test positive to having the anti-bodies.
        
        As others on here have pointed out, only a test for Covid-19 antibodies will show how many people were actually exposed to it and “infected”, but as they have also said no test yet exists.
        
        So long as people do not compromise their immune system or expose it to a heavy payload of infection, most invaders and viruses get taken care of.
        
        We can be constantly exposed to the viruses and bacteria that always surround us, but not trigger symptoms.
        
        Whenever possible I try and avoid public toilets or toilets in aircraft as they are is rich in things you don’t want.
        
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        April 11, 2020 2:11pm
    - Nickc2
      
      I hope when this is all over (if it is), we attack the man-made climate change models with the same veracity. I believe they are designed to give results favourable to the leftist lunatics, regardless of inputs and processes.
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:24pm
  - Tall Man
    
    80,000 was always a childish fantasy adopted by a child.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:42am
    - Stu2
      
      If we went back to level 2 this afternoon then :
      – schools , universities open
      – pubs open
      – cafes open
      – shops open
      – public venues open
      (libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts,
      gyms, pools, amusement parks …)
      – mass gatherings limited (500 at level 1, not sure what they were at level 2)
      
      Covid19 has proved extremely infectious (the Bluff wedding cluster is the classic example)
      
      With this range of opportunities for the virus, many hundreds of thousands of infections would happen over time, and 80,000 deaths could happen easily
      
      That modelled result is from this sort of scenario – very light virus controls and no lock down
      No one would expect it to actually happen, it is for comparison with the outcomes from the higher control levels
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:37pm
      - PhilBest
        
        Yes but because of lag in illness manifesting and a further lag to dying, all the stats to date relate to the pre-lockdown period. So what was wrong with what we were doing then?
        
        You’re quite right about gatherings being the problem, but there is also an environmental factor, if the experts were taking this into account they might find the common denominator of environmental type in the worst clusters. That is, temperature and humidity ideal for the virus. Maybe the venues involved here in NZ clusters had some common failing in the HEVAC department?
        
        If the wedding down at Bluff had been held outside on a typical warm dry day, I bet nothing would have gone wrong. I want smart regulations, not dumb, shotgun, shoot our economic foot off ones.
        
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        April 11, 2020 4:17pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  “Why aren’t the media demanding” – Media will ask quetsions only when they shut their drooling mouths.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:23am
  - Stu2
    
    Stuff did a simplistic piece of the first model result and told us what the predicted deaths were but not what the assumptions were
    – rate of transmission
    – death rate
    – death rate if hospitals overwhelmed
    – virus controls in action
    – effect of individual controls
    – cumulative effect of mixes of controls
    
    and whether modelled medical resources were adequate (ICU beds and ventilators…) at a NZ and regional level
    
    Technical analysis of this ilk might be beyond run of the mill journalists doing quick turn around pieces. Getting hyper excited over David Clark’s idiocy is more their bread and butter
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:07pm
- mara
  
  I’m waiting to have a defibrillator inserted in my chest to assist my heart if it fails but now I wonder if it will be done in time. Like many other people with health issues, I have more worry than before.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:26am
Chris Morgan

Yes, it could have been, might have been…..but when is enough enough? From an August 2019 article in Noted. “More than 200,000 New Zealanders contract the flu each year. Of these, it’s estimated that 400-500 people will die either directly or indirectly from its effects.”

https://www.noted.co.nz/health/health-health/influenza-nz-evolving-threat
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April 11, 2020 8:23am
- PhilBest
  
  And that is the context in which thousands of infections and 32 deaths from Swine Flu in 2009, went pretty much unnoticed by Kiwis.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:20am
R

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
The organisation that criticises government handouts has asked for a $60,000 government handout. Government intervention in the economy isn’t so bad after all.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/coronavirus-taxpayers-union-gives-up-ideological-purity-accepts-60-000-in-taxpayer-wage-subsidies.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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April 11, 2020 8:26am
- JamesP
  
  Why do they need the money again? Oh that’s right, a once in a lifetime government intervention in the economy…
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:57am
- Swifty
  
  Agreed, it’s not a good look and I would hope they would repay any monies received as soon as they can.
  
  Tough for the Taxpayer Union guys though – accept it and look hypocritical, or decline it and their staff suffer – if the TU are forced to let people go earlier as a result.
  
  Of course this raises the spectre that we have two classes of people in NZ. One is those in private business or employment and, while they create the wealth that governments then redistribute, they are for the chopping block when the economy takes a hit from external forces. These people are now being laid off in large numbers.
  
  The second is those employed by the state and who couldn’t exist without the efforts and enterprise of the first group. They enjoy great privilege and are currently sitting pretty in secure employment and near if not full whack.
  
  Is is fair, just and sustainable that this inequity exists?
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:15am
  - yossarian
    
    I ask again, why is it only the private businesses taking a hit, why isn’t the govt docking govt employees pay by 20% like everyone else in the private sector?
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:23am
    - Ruahine
      
      Her Communist’friends’ from overseas probably told her to bash the private sector. Ruin business. They never vote for you anyway.
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:39am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  Nice – state funding for political parties!
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:17am
  - Ruahine
    
    Yes. It is coming. Just like more state funded Media.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:40am
- Simon
  
  “The organisation that criticises government handouts has asked for a $60,000 government handout. ”
  
  Like all wage subsidies it will be paid to their employees – not a handout to the entity receiving the subsidy.
  
  The wage subsidy instead of the dole.
  
  Like the left in general you are in for a very steep learning curve or more likely will become very angry and bitter in reaction to not understanding reality.
  
  For the left’s own mental health need a change of government to National so they can direct their rage towards National. If Labour are in government the left’s rage and insanity will be directed to normal people. See Mike Hosking for eg.
  
  But the left rage will have open season on everyone.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:24am
- MrTips
  
  Quite right R, disgraceful!!!
  
  Tamati Coffey’s company T2 Hospitality got $150,000.
  This is a good one actually because Tamati is a 50% owner!!
  
  Wille Jackson’s NGA WHARE WAATEA INC got $35,148
  
  The great David Parker, bastard extra-ordinaire, interested company Pharmazen got $323,000
  
  You get the idea, everyone needs it. Shall I go on?
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:40am
- KevO'Brien
  
  They would be foolish not to accept the wage subsidy–it is for all and. Keeping the TU going is as important as other unions.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:06am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Except for it not being a union, you are right.
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:40pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  You moron. TU employees are tax payers unlike you sucking on state benefit.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:26am
- JibberJabber
  
  Hardly a surprise that the Leftwaffe just don`t get it,
  
  The government bans economic activity and forces the private sector to rely on government handouts.
  
  leftists: hahahaha look at those right-wing hypocrites
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:08am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    No one has banned the Taxpayers’ ‘Union’ from doing anything.
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:41pm
Yvette

PM reveals how she came to lockdown decision – Herald headlines Stuff article

When friends overseas painted a bleak picture of the advancing pall of coronavirus, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern listened.
“[They were] saying, ‘Go, just shut down, because here I am in lockdown with thousands of people dying. Just shut down’,” she tells Stuff’s Coronavirus NZ podcast.
It helped make the decision to “go hard and go early”, to close New Zealand’s borders and enforce a lockdown [1]

Coronavirus: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern reveals one of the biggest decisions she’s made during the pandemic
The Prime Minister has revealed one of the biggest decisions she’s made during the COVID-19 pandemic so far, with NZ just over the halfway stage of its planned four-week lockdown.
In an interview with the Coronavirus NZ podcast by Stuff, Jacinda Ardern says one of the biggest moments was implementing New Zealand’s border restrictions.
One of the initial measures put in place last month was announcing the requirement that everyone entering New Zealand must self-isolate for 14 days.
“That felt huge,” Ardern told Stuff. “I just remember thinking, ‘a week ago we wouldn’t have thought we would be here but here we are’, and it was just such a simple, obvious decision. I thought ‘this is what’s got to be done’ and we just didn’t hesitate.” [2]

There does seem to be a distinct impression that as well as being the “face” of the Governments’ measures, Ardern is the “mind” making the decisions.
It would perhaps be helpful to the nation, if the Epidemic Response Committee, chaired by Simon Bridges and established to consider and report to the House on matters relating to the Government’s management of the COVID-19 epidemic, could reassure us that there are a few more people beside Ardern involved, and that she is not impulsively having a bash at it, singlehandedly as some main stream media would seem to indicate.

It may seem political for a Bridges chaired committee to look at this, but surely no more so than the media portal of Ardern, and her doing nothing to correct it.

And one has to ask if the media is making some of this stuff up? (Does Stuff have something to gain in that?)
The first case of COVID-19 confirmed in New Zealand [Health website media release 28 February] but testing totals were first mentioned, it seems, as 224 tests by March 8 and didn’t make it to its first thousand until March 17 or 18. It was very selective, not early and not hard.
And if overseas friends were urging Government policy to be “‘Go, just shut down”, which helped make the decision to “go hard and go early”, to close New Zealand’s borders, that didn’t happened less than 36 hours ago.

Now is not the time to be feeding us electioneering drivel.

[1] https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120954236/inside-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-bubble-whats-on-the-pms-mind-during-covid19-crisis
[2] https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/coronavirus-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-reveals-one-of-the-biggest-decisions-she-s-made-during-the-pandemic.html
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April 11, 2020 8:26am
- backster
  
  What she doesn’t say is some of her friends were telling her ‘Hold back do nothing until after you have made your entrance appearance at the mosque killings anniversary’.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:10am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  Now is not the time to be feeding us electioneering drivel.
  
  Pure propaganda of the highest order.
  
  Some folks are hard at work employing techniques that N.Korea would envy.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:14am
  - kevn
    
    @Maggy… Topham-Guerin, social media gurus working hard for JA.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:29am
    - projectman
      
      Topham-Guerin – traitors, Aren’t they supposed to work for National?
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:34am
      - marcw
        
        I would like to know who is paying their bills? Are they contracted by NZ Labour for promotion of the Party, or are they contracted to the Government to help them get messages out to the country about covid-19? First case, NZ Labour pays (ha ha ha!), or most likely, the taxpayer is paying for this not so subtle election program.
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:46am
- Chris Morgan
  
  Bridges should be holding media updates everyday the committee sits like the daily 1pm show. What was the crux of today’s session and findings etc….
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:32am
  - marcw
    
    Unfortunately, in NZ we don’t have a Fox News. We have Pravda One and Red Radio who will either ignore or talk over him to prevent him from getting any message out.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:45am
    - Isobar
      
      Surely if there was a market for a NZ fox news – it would exist?
      
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      April 11, 2020 3:52pm
      - Nickc2
        
        It would never be allowed under a Labour government.
        
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        April 11, 2020 7:49pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        True, NZ does not have a sufficiently high number of morons to make such gibberish profitable here.
        
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        April 11, 2020 8:20pm
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    I agree..
    
    although you can view all the sessions on Parliament’s website
    
    https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/sc/scl/epidemic-response/news-archive/watch-public-meetings-of-the-epidemic-response-committee/
    
    and there will be a lot of information there that can’t be swept under the carpet when a review of the National Emergency is conducted.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:51am
    - KevO'Brien
      
      Who is going to conduct a non-political review of COL & Co in NZ? Ceasar?
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:09am
      - Maggy Wassilieff
        
        Oh, I’m sure they can find a female to fill the role…
        https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/Caesar%27s+wife
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:02am
Lee C

I’ve been following the pandemic with interest. Isn’t it interesting how it has been a barometer of political persuasion and resilience?

My innate observation has been that the more cynical and resilient one is emotionally, the less likely one has been to ‘buy into’ the whole thing.

So by this standard, I must be to the right of Mussolini.
I have had people accuse me of wearing a tin-foil hat for posting annual death stats, (which couldn’t be attributed to the ‘virus’) ,I’ve seen people lose their shit when I suggested annual flu deaths are x amount every year.

I’ve felt that the political elites have exploited this fear-mongering to exact an ideological power-grab.
I also feel that this is being exploited by the current PM as another ‘Messiah-moment’.

Check out weird posts on facebook about how she’s ‘Our Jacinda’.

I feel the media has similarly exploited the pandemic to push their own ideological barrow and still do.

But this morning I once again checked teh annual flu stats and worked it out.

We’re all going to be alright, people.

Of course, by making such a positive statement

some will suggest I’m a terrorist, formulating hate speech or right wing nut job.

But I’m not.

I’m just an average bloke who knows how to read.

Just Don’t believe the hype.
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April 11, 2020 8:28am
- PhilBest
  
  I still very much fear that “average bloke who knows how to read” corresponds roughly in NZ with “loyal ACT voters”
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:35am
  - Lee C
    
    I’ve voted all sorts of ways in my life, besides how anyone votes is none of anyone else’s fucking business.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:09am
    - PhilBest
      
      I wasn’t implying a direct overlap, I was using ACT voters as an example of “an extremely low proportion”.
      
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      April 11, 2020 9:22am
    - PhilBest
      
      But I would say further, that if you are from the left, you are an even rarer specimen of ability to read and think than the rate for the general populace.
      
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      April 11, 2020 9:23am
      - Lee C
        
        I apologise for my defensiveness. I used to run a blog that found itself in a collection of NZ Blogs labelled ‘Left (?)”
        
        That’s how I like it…
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:33am
  - JackRabbit
    
    That’s because the left can’t read.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:16am
- slightlyrighty
  
  Lee, I do believe you. I also believe that had National been in charge, we would have had the same sort of response. Had English been our PM, and given the fact that his wife is a doctor, I feel that we would not only have done the same, but be in a better financial position, having not blown billions on Shane Jones’s PGF, or Free Fees for first year tertiary students.
  
  That being said, from a communication standpoint, I think Ardern has handled the crisis well. I do not think that she will handle the recovery phase as well. She has done the right thing and put the science first, but as far as economic theory goes, this is more likely open to ideological interpretation.
  
  This is where Bill English would have been better.
  
  But for the moment, we should contrast what we have done with what is happening in other parts of the world and count ourselves lucky.
  
  We are not digging mass graves in our largest city. Our leaders have recognized the potential scale of the problem and acted in a timely fashion.
  
  If we were to have the same death rate as Italy, we would be at 1400 dead.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:42am
  - PhilBest
    
    What might Northern Italy’s air pollution, demographics, and dominant housing forms have to do with it? Plus that it was winter over there when this started. They have 20,000 premature deaths per annum from air pollution, and in winter, inversion layers trap the smog in place for long periods.
    
    NZ. IS. NOT. AND. NEVER. WAS. GOING. TO. BE. NORTHERN ITALY!!!
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:26am
    - Michael NZ
      
      we don’t have the concentration of Chinese workers coming in from Wuhan either…..
      
      which helps.
      
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      April 11, 2020 9:58am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    You can only put sciences first if you understand them. They are not always honest either. “Statistics….”
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:11am
  - projectman
    
    ‘Acting in a timely fashion’ do not mean they did the right things, got the balance right.
    
    8 1
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    April 11, 2020 10:37am
  - Alboy
    
    She also said the decision was driven by a friend from the UK. I suspect that friend wasn’t a part of the scientific community however.
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:45pm
    - Nickc2
      
      Oh no, don’t tell me she’s taking advice from Jeremy Corbyn? If so, that will account for all the talk about nationalising industry and a universal basic wage.
      
      6 1
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      April 11, 2020 3:18pm
  - Sacha
    
    I’m with you, slightly righty. As a mouth piece, I think Ardern is doing well although she is appealing to the non-critical mass, and being lauded as the Little Mother of All The Kiwis.
    I too would have felt more secure if Bill. English hd been at the helm.
    I am not optimistic for the mental health of the jobless and moneyless and deeply in debt.
    
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    April 11, 2020 7:04pm
- The Police
  
  The only upside is she is a lot prettier than Saint Helen.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:43am
  - Humble Capitalist
    
    A low bar you set there!
    
    30 1
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    April 11, 2020 9:39am
- TWEEDSE
  
  Very well said Lee. Common sense stuff sadly missed by the majority of the population who clamber to be saved by someone else. to believe what ever they are fed.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:43am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  I feel none of those things. In fact, I feel you are a paranoid doom-monger locked into a bit of a fantasy about the response to this serious health emergency.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:45am
  - Lee C
    
    Thus proving my initial point about resilience, perhaps. Milky.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:34am
- Hacked-Off
  
  I agree. Some weeks ago Peter Dunne wrote in an article that some in Labour saw this epidemic as a crisis to exploit for political gain – to loose the tag of being useless at implementation, so as to boost chances in the upcoming election. So far coming out of the Beehive, all I have seen has been mainly spin and political maneuvering, and where many facts on the ground do not equate to what is being said at the briefings. This spin has seen the predictable rise of Labour in the polls – ironic as they have not released their own internal polling for such a long time hinting at worrying trends before the crisis. It is also probably why Simon felt he needed to be down in Wellington rather than divorced from the media in Tauranga. Although there are calls to delay the election, Labour will be foolish to consider such a mood under the circumstances as economic reality post-covid and their usual incompetence will speedily erode their, for now, popularity. We have survived the health part of this crisis more by good luck, geographic isolation and low population density more than good management. The electoral message will be strike hard and strike fast before people have time to ponder what this lock-down has cost us.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:47am
  - freethinker
    
    The true horror will emerge once the 12 week wage subsidy finishes and people go back to work or not and it will be impossible to spin that there is no relationship between how the Govt has handled the crisis and unemployment with all the negatives that implies, remember Governments are voted out of office not in. Hopefully Cindy & Robbo will go down in history as the duo who consigned this coalition of clowns to a one term Govt ably assisted by the drunken dwarf and an angry arsehole.
    
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    April 11, 2020 8:03pm
- MCos
  
  About 500 people die annually in NZ from the flu.
  The only precaution we take against it is the vaccine that is about 40-80% effective and last year was utilized by about 1.35mil people.
  This year the uptake is going to be higher plus all the ‘social distancing’ etc will curtail the spread of the flu.
  
  We don’t know what the death toll from Covid-19 might have been because of the precautions both voluntary & thrust upon us.
  However.
  Sweden hasn’t clamped down to any great extent. They have a population about double ours and to date a death toll of 870, mostly in the last 3-4 weeks.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:01am
  - PhilBest
    
    Sweden’s chief health advisor is a rare example of a clear and logical thinker. Sweden is uniquely lucky to have such a man in his position at the current time.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:28am
    - freethinker
      
      I rate Ashley Bloomfield as the star of the communications forum, Cindy simply reads from a script prepared by someone else.
      
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      April 11, 2020 8:05pm
  - Stu2
    
    Sweden’s last five days saw 75, 114, 96, 106 and 77 deaths, which is 54% of the 870
    
    They are doubling every 5 days which isn’t extreme but not good either (for a while NY was doubling every 2 days)
    
    Their daily case numbers jump around – their test numbers are lowish which could be related. I’m going to keep watching
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:40pm
- Mummy
  
  Agree. I’ve been hammered on FB for sticking my neck out early and saying we shouldn’t be comparing NZ with Italy Spain or anywhere else. That this thing isn’t as bad as it’s predicted to be. That wearing face masks is a waste of time. I was even so bold as to suggest that a bit of collateral damage is ok if it means protecting the economy. That was naughty of me. They didn’t like that.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:13am
  - Lee C
    
    You shall go to the naughty chair mummy and wait for me there while I decide what to do with you.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:36am
  - Paulus
    
    Sounds similar to comments made by Wynston Peters – Happy Birthday Wyn
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:20pm
The Police

World War 1: War with Germany

World War 2: War with Germany, Italy and Japan

World War 3: The ‘Cold’ War

World War 4: The War against Fundamentalist Islam

World War 5: The War against Chinese Global Economic Domination.
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April 11, 2020 8:29am
- Jules99
  
  According to some it’s just war games where the wealthy elites fund both sides and make mega profits. They could have a point as that seems to be the outcome.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:12am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Yeah, only two of those were actual wars…
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:19am
  - Steve James
    
    Yeah, tell that to the killed and wounded mikenwankagain.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:30am
    - mikenmildagain
      
      He is putting the last three ‘wars’ in the same category as actual global conflicts that resulted in over 100 millions deaths. Don’t trivialise that suffering.
      
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      April 11, 2020 9:42am
      - The Police
        
        How do you know my gender?
        
        You are GUILTY of hate crime.
        
        I’ve taken your name.
        
        The revolution consumes its own.
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:03am
      - The Police
        
        Like nearly all my male friends my gender is a lesbian cruelly trapped in a man’s body and rejected by CIS lesbians.
        
        I think. Something like that anyway.
        
        At least there is Pornhub.
        
        16 3
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        April 11, 2020 10:14am
      - Humble Capitalist
        
        Agree or try to make a joke out of Parkinson’s or cancer
        
        7 3
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        April 11, 2020 10:18am
      - Jack5
        
        Milky loves busy posting days on Kiwiblog, and that’s most days in the gulag lockdown.
        
        The volume of posts slows moderation of the queue, and Milky is registered so he can post directly to threads. *
        
        The ripostes to his inanity have near-expired by the time they appear.
        
        * Not correct -Mod.]
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:29am
- Steve James
  
  Between 4 & 5 maybe add the ideological war between the loopy left and the informed right.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:29am
- Simon
  
  “Chinese Global Economic Domination”
  
  lol – Wumao
  
  China is a social, environmental, corrupt, governmental, money printing basket case.
  
  Anytime a Chinese citizen makes any sort of money they want to immigrate and get their capital out. i.e get the fuck away from the CCP and little wumaos like you.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:35am
  - kowtow
    
    What about the United Front types , seems there’s lots of them here , still doing Party work even though they have “escaped” ?
    
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120927408/new-zealanders-caught-short-after-masks-sent-to-china
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:43pm
Ruahine

The Herald has found a new Covid-19 expert.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324146
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April 11, 2020 8:30am
TWEEDSE

What I found most sad about the death of the second person with covid19 was not that she had died. She was 93 after all with other illnesses. It was that non of her family were with her. Surely it would have been compassionate to allow one or two family members, who had been briefed on the risks and who agreed to isolate, to be with her. To die alone whilst the family are locked out is brutally inhumane.
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April 11, 2020 8:35am
- Scott
  
  That’s where we are. The public has consented to funerals where everyone not living in the bubble is barred from the funeral. Level 4 is way too draconian in my opinion. We should demand an easing of the lock down.
  
  Sadly many NZers are so frightened that they will just accept it.
  
  Take courage this Easter!
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:55am
- PhilBest
  
  Someone yesterday quoted an elderly person to the effect of “to save our lives they’ve taken away everything that gave us joy in living”!
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:30am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    Indeed.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:15am
- Dougal10
  
  There is no compassion in a communist utopia.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:56am
- DeepBlue
  
  If it was my mother I would gladly stay in isolation for two weeks. This is madness.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:20am
Maggy Wassilieff

Steve Elers on target again.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/120924011/primary-interest-time-to-cut-the-cord-and-let-agriculture-thrive
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April 11, 2020 8:35am
- artemisia
  
  We could be digging up valuable stuff, including from under the sea in our huge EEZ. Jobs and tax revenue.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:45am
  - Jack5
    
    On the sea floor or under it: A little oil, a lot of gas, iron-ore sand, perhaps phosphate rock, but the methane hydrates that led Don Brash to rashly say NZ had more mineral resources than Australia, are pie in the sky.
    
    Even if they are ever harnessed, there are heaps of hydrates close to the big energy markets – Japan, China, Europe, America.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:26am
- Justitia
  
  A Massey academic with a brain!
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:46am
- PhilBest
  
  Not just agriculture. In times like these we need an “all of the above” approach.
  
  Glad to see Elers hasn’t been de-personed yet
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:49am
- Scott
  
  Maggy is quite right. The article she links to says –
  “The government needs to let go of its ideological biases, reset, and do all it can to encourage and grow our primary industries.
  
  A good place to start would be to deregulate anything that hinders production for farmers, growers, foresters and fishers. For example, farmers face significant compliance costs to ensure they’re meeting requirements from the Zero Carbon Bill to freshwater management policies. ‘
  
  Unfortunately this is a government of extreme ideology that does not compromise eg the extreme abortion bill.
  
  They will be the same with farmers. Our government doesn’t really want to grow the economy, that’s not their main goal. Their main goal is the green initiatives such as carbon neutrality. Their main goal is to impose more regulations because many in their caucus believe that man’s industry pollutes the environment and must be heavily regulated.
  
  These things are at the core of the leftists who are in power right now. They are idealogues.
  
  What we need is a change of government. This one will never let pragmatism get in the way of their ideology.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:52am
- Chris Morgan
  
  The message to the tourism sector needs to be that their market is now 100% domestic for the foreseeable future. So, if hotels want full occupancy, airlines ‘full’ and restaurants busy, drop your prices. Up until now it has been cheaper to stay at (for example) the InterContinental in Circular Quay for 7 days than it is to spend 5 days in reasonably good place in Queenstown.
  
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  April 11, 2020 8:53am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Ngai Tahu will be taking a massive hit.
    They heavily invested in tourism.
    
    Around hereabouts Ngati Porou invested in Agriculture/Forestry and Horticulture… They’ll probably ride out the coming recession better than many.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:08am
    - Paulus
      
      Both Iwi will tell us that they have lost money because the the virus and it is Pakeha’s fault and we want to reopen the Treaty negotiations.
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:24pm
igm

Lee: You are so correct. Ardern is playing this out more than she did the shooting in Christchurch, once again ably assisted by MSM.
Like many others, I am sick of seeing her grotesque features paraded before me every time I open a newspaper or turn on Tv.
She did not even have the decency to recognise Wahine Day yesterday . . . maybe there was more appeasement to UN by sticking to the virus, which is highly exaggerated by the left as a means of attacking capitalism.
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April 11, 2020 8:36am
- UkiWop
  
  igm. I have to turn the TV off once she appears as her very presence upsets my equilibrium..You are not alone in your feelz about her
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:04am
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  igm, nobody says you have to open a newspaper. I haven’t done so for about five years.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:09am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Just sticking to TV news, Cap’n?
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:20am
- mikenmildagain
  
  What is the usual form for the PM to recognise Wahine Day, igm?
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:20am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    igm, are you there? Everything ok in the rest home?
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:44pm
Happychappy

It was bloody cold earlier in the Waikato this morning and know one can be absolutely sure that the Coronavirus won’t thrive on it so there is going to be a few people at the top of Jacindas panic room praying that there Princess has got it right as if she hasn’t her world could come down crumbling behind her.
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April 11, 2020 8:37am
- DeepBlue
  
  ‘Her world’, and ours.
  
  This lockdown has to work (by design, luck, or even the virus is not a problem) because if it balloons again in 1 month we are utterly, totally, fatally screwed.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:24am
Mags

Interesting article in Stuff about the ‘snitching’ culture under covid. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120922849/coronavirus-are-we-a-totalitarian-state-full-of-snitches
Interestingly the author fails to identify the snitch cheerleader in chief, Jacinda, who has asked for names of landlords and others that may have breached some vague interpretation of her musings.
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April 11, 2020 8:37am
- rightoverlabour
  
  Just like Nazi Germany during the 1930s….
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:36am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
    Comparison with Nazis are not only inaccurate, lazy and stupid, they are also disgusting.
    
    4 39
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    April 11, 2020 9:45am
    - Dougal10
      
      Possibly accurate though.
      
      25 3
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      April 11, 2020 9:59am
      - Jack5
        
        Or like the the East German snitchers to the Stasi.
        
        Oh!!! Don’t tell us, Milky, you’ve been on the phone dob-in line?
        
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        April 11, 2020 10:35am
      - Wayne Mapp
        
        I think some Kiwibloggers need to take a bit of a step back. It is absurd to compare NZ to Nazi Germany.
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:03am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/careless-whispers-how-the-german-public-used-and-abused-the-gestapo-1.2369837
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:59am
  - Ruahine
    
    Just like the Soviet Union and its colonies and the todays Communist China.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:55am
  - doggone7
    
    If Judith were in charge all those breaking the roving rules would have their vehicles crushed. Her supporters would be encouraging her to leave the drivers in their vehicles. And anyone using the words ‘Nazi Germany during the 1930s’ or ‘Stalin’ would be told to stop being so ridculous.
    
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    April 11, 2020 6:13pm
- Paulus
  
  I went for my local walk this morning down the road from where I live, a huge park, and a car was there with a man in some sort of uniform I think taking down any cars which may be there or coming into the small car park outside the park itself which was shut off anyway (ex gates).
  There were a couple which would have disappointed him as I know they are very elderly locals who walk every day.
  No doubt he got their addresses from his hand held and they would be talked to, despite their physical infirmities and Ardern clearly stating that local driving for exercise sake is in order.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:36am
amospicton

Staggering really that the most important single decision any prime minister has made since perhaps Lange let Douglas free the economy (although he probably didn’t realise the significance) was made after talking to friends! Not the advice of the many experts we taxpayers employ for just these situations but friends…..
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April 11, 2020 8:40am
- JamesP
  
  I actually applaud her for telling the truth on this one. So rare for her!
  
  Did anyone really think it was done after long and clinical deliberation about the statistically expected outcomes produced by complex interactions between economic and medical models? Rumor is she struggled to tot up the orders down at the chip shop.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:06am
  - PhilBest
    
    I remember Michael Basset writing when Michael Cullen became Finance Minister under Hulun, that back in the Lange and Douglas era, Cullen was the MP who was the butt of memes that he struggled to balance his own cheque book.
    
    There is a real problem with shallowness of the pool of economic and basic financial talent among socialists.
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:37am
  - Tall Man
    
    I very much doubt that it is even remotely close to the truth.
    
    It is just another social media PR stunt.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:02am
- Dougal10
  
  The friends were probably H1 and H2
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:01am
- tf78
  
  If I was her friend I would have told her to do it 6 weeks ago- maybe her friends aren’t that good. She truly is lacking in the common sense department.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:05am
Scooter

First hand experiencing it in Italy, the thing that has surprised me is how compliant everyone has been. Still I see that after people experience Easter without their families and extended families will really start to wonder if it’s worth it and how much longer. Lockdown till May 3 but after 3 dates extended can we believe it?
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April 11, 2020 8:45am
mikenmildagain

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Happy Louie Louie Day to you all. It’s also World Parkinson’s Day, too, but I can’t think of a joke connecting the two. Maybe after morning coffee.

[Mod – for those suffering from it, Parkinson’s is no joking matter mikenmild. Enjoy your coffee, but leave the joke]
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April 11, 2020 8:47am
- Wangas Feral
  
  Really? Mikey is a dick but getting told off because Parkinsons is ‘no joking matter’? Wu-flu is no joking matter yet we joke about it constantly. Get a grip Mod.
  
  For the first time ever I gave him an upvote.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:13am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Laughter is always the best medicine, surely. I have made many jokes on similar ‘world days’, including about my own conditions(s).
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:22am
- Happychappy
  
  But MM likes making jokes about the unfortunate, he made one about brain tumors not so long ago which not one moderator pulled him up on so it is about time he got the treatment that others get let’s hope it is one rule for all.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:24am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Not so happy, chappy? Did you miss out on International Happiness Day on 20 March?
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:46am
lifesgood

What a disgrace that the cluster in Auckland is being kept secret. They were very ready and willing to name other ones. How in the hell are people to avoid being any where near the people involved, the suburb or the business. Sounds like it might be a brothel, doesn’t it?
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April 11, 2020 8:50am
[email protected]

There’s not a lot we can do for tourism, airlines and foreign student education. Those industries will struggle for some time before slowly reviving.

We can, however get behind the export sector that will help the economy get back on its feet. Our farmers, dairy and other organizations, large and small that bring in foreign currency are going to be very important.
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April 11, 2020 8:54am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Internal tourism could be important once we can travel again. Keep as much of your spending in NZ as possible. Get out and support local businesses, etc.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:23am
  - Jack5
    
    FFS stay in the capital, Milky. Wellington needs you.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:12am
- MCos
  
  According to provisional figures for the two months to the end of February
  “total exports to all countries were up 13.2 percent ($172 million), from $1.31 billion to $1.48 billion.”
  compared to the same time last year.
  https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/effects-of-covid-19-on-trade-1-february31-march-2020-provisional
  
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  April 11, 2020 12:17pm
Aunty

“the more cynical and resilient one is emotionally, the less likely one has been to ‘buy into’ the whole thing.”

Not necessarily, this can actually be a coping strategy for the more fearful and frightened among us. By throwing a strongly defended blanket wall of denial about the virus and its effects, this allows some to keep the whole thing at bay emotionally, thereby allowing them to cope. The more effort and vigor to the point of hostility, anger, and even violence, the more fixated or intensely focused that such individuals are in maintaining their impenetrable wall of deniability the more likely it is that underneath it all, they are very very frightened and fearful. Being obsessed about anything is usually a sign that something else is going on with that person.
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April 11, 2020 8:57am
- Lee C
  
  Yeah I hear you, but assuming it’s denial and subsequently you seek information which actually confirms
  a) the powers that be be misrepresenting reality
  b) they are using this misrepresentation to promote their own narrow agenda
  c) they are invested in maintaining people in a state of fear so they can represent themselves as a ‘saviour’
  
  At what stage does ‘denial’ cease to be dismissed as irrational, and start to become validated as informed reason?
  
  Here’s a couple of links for you if yo are interested:
  
  https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120922849/coronavirus-are-we-a-totalitarian-state-full-of-snitches
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wn1qs_bBk&fbclid=IwAR0JGkLSsy0vfM0DfO5lUoXHuONb6O5dfVhxSoFvnzR5T0Vx6Ma_AF2Ci78
  
  https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/04/10/the-real-threat-from-covid-19-is-the-governments-response/?fbclid=IwAR3e1Y5_5E42cBMgLPPB_gXdBU4PEEjOWOTWLAG9zrM9unkG7DcNmc3KXe0
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnXzGB170GI&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2kSbHPTx6GmrXKLnYR7DJERPs62w-RvKvpsBh5y-mcL5nt1NovJytPlPI
  
  Thanks
  
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  April 11, 2020 2:41pm
Maggy Wassilieff

There’s something eerily familiar about that pose of a country’s leader gazing out of a window ..

Jacinda Ardern in yesterday’s fluff piece..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120954236/inside-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-bubble-whats-on-the-pms-mind-during-covid19-crisis

Mr Hitler 1933
https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-adolf-hitler-36998598.html

JFK
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3a/82/f0/3a82f0630a87dd108a7f0ba16e1a6593.jpg

Putin
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c6/02/78/c60278393863d08d966be2f9aee62328.jpg

etc.
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April 11, 2020 8:59am
- MrTips
  
  Oh Maggy, you are naughty. Brilliant.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:09am
- Gravelroad
  
  She’s not my leader, MW.
  Ms Ardern was chosen for us by an individual devoid of any principles or integrity in a grab for personal power and to make himself feel better because people in the National Party had been mean to him.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:16am
- Jules99
  
  And Trump of course:
  
  https://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2018_03/2294261/180116-trump-campaign-plane-window-2016-njs-131p_8dabef3a29260007fbf531603815c0e1.fit-760w.jpg
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:18am
- Swifty
  
  Actually Maggy, when I say that Ardern photo yesterday my first and instant thought was this:
  
  https://www.whaleoil.net.nz/2018/12/guess-who-did-worse-than-goff-cunliffe-little/
  
  Just like the Cunliffe on the beach pic – staged and fake.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:20am
  - Swifty
    
    *saw
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:03am
- mikenmildagain
  
  I didn’t know you were such an admirer of JFK, Maggy.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:25am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    Nice Mike. But even I was a fan of JFK. The last true Democrat, and look what they did to him
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:40am
    - mikenmildagain
      
      What who did to him?
      
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      April 11, 2020 9:47am
      - Steve Otto(North Shore)
        
        A deranged Democrat. I was only 11 at the time and was already aware of leftist bullshit
        
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        April 11, 2020 9:59am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    I can know stuff about people without being an admirer of them, mikenmildagain.
    
    Surely that’s not a difficult concept to grasp?
    
    But wait, I forget… you like to mangle posts to discredit others, don’t you?
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:06am
    - Steve Otto(North Shore)
      
      Just like the media does
      
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      April 11, 2020 10:56am
    - mikenmildagain
      
      I was wondering in what way the photos might be related, other than being pictures of politicians looking out windows?
      Surely there must have been some subtle point that I have missed.
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:28pm
      - Maggy Wassilieff
        
        Surely there must have been some subtle point that I have missed
        
        Indeed, you have.
        
        https://theconversation.com/images-matter-the-power-of-the-visual-in-political-communication-122281
        
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        April 11, 2020 2:40pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Too profound for me, I’m afraid. I would never have guessed that politicians try to control their images.
        
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        April 11, 2020 3:47pm
- Fletch
  
  I think she is on the phone tho? I doubt Hitler had a cell ?
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:57am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Oh yes, he did….
    
    Hubby reminded me of this famous photo.
    https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/adolf-hitler-looks-out-a-window-in-landsberg-am-lech-prison-in-1924-picture-id615319920
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:37pm
    - mikenmildagain
      
      Hitler had a pet dog, and Ardern a pet cat. I wonder what other parallels there might be in their lives.
      
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      April 11, 2020 3:50pm
Simon

Business to get through next 2 years. Cut prices. Cut cut cut. That includes everything. All business inputs cut cut cut. Rent, staff, suppliers cut cut cut. Talk to customers offer big discounts but at tight credit.

Wage rates need to fall. Any lending needs a pause for 6 months. Interest only.

Line by line review of all expense items. Either remove or request big discounts.

Trade at break even. The prices need to fall.
its about survival.

How can the State assist? Abolish GST and minimum wage, and then just fuck off.
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April 11, 2020 9:00am
hullkiwi

Yesterday, I was reading the headlines about the latest Wuhan Flu cases in NZ. Got to the bottom of the article and what struck me was the map showing the number of cases in NZ by region.

What stood out like a sore thumb, was the lack of number of cases in regions that have high Maori populations. In fact, the cumulative r of cases in regions with high Maori populations was lower than the number of cases in the Waitemata DHB (a predominantly Pakeha population).

Like a number of us, I can recall the sob stories about the risk to Maoris – so we have road blocks in the North, and the government splashing out $ millions to any number of different Maori causes/government agencies and NGOs. showing once again, how the agenda in government and our media (both MSM and social), is nothing but a stream of fake news!

People, beware the fake prophets – they don’t have a clue, they (the government, TVNZ, NZME and RNZ, Facebook) peddle peddle a false narrative.
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April 11, 2020 9:05am
- PhilBest
  
  I have a theory on that. The socio-economic divide and its spatial implications are actually to the advantage of NZ’s poorer folk, because of the degrees of separation between those communities and the globetrotting class is significant. There are communities in NZ where poor families have grandma and grandpa under the same roof with them and their kids, just like is common in Northern Italy. But in Northern Italy the locations of those folk is ancient and unsanitary apartment blocks near the factories that employ immigrants and pollute the air.
  
  It is probably also to our advantage that we’ve subsidised so much home insulation and heat pumps for the elderly and poor.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:45am
  - hullkiwi
    
    Phil I agree, nearly all of our cases have been Pakehas aged under 60 wandering in through the country’s border. they don’t live/mix with those on the East coast (1 case), or Northland (24 cases). but as kevn points out below, throwing $56mill at them must have worked.
    
    But like most of us, nothing has been thrown our way, and we haven’t come down with it either!
    
    The issue going forward for the government, will be raising the money for what will be needed, giving they have been throwing money around like confetti over the past month.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:06am
    - Ruahine
      
      It is true. Money solves all problems. Especially other peoples money.
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:01am
- kevn
  
  @hull… The 56 million dollars given/aimed at maori must have worked?
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:48am
lastmanstanding

Some random thoughts and comments.

1. The supreme irony is the NZ and other countries recovery depends on the growth of the Chinese economy.

2. The PIGS are rooted, France is stuffed and the only star Germany will take a big hit. The ECB is pouring 500 Billion Euros into the economy and commentators say they will have to more than double that to 1 Trillion Euros.

The UK dodged a bullet.

3. As others have posted I suggest the Nats/Act dont want to win the election. Whoever does is going to have to increase income tax on middle and high earners, increase GST, introduce Gift Duty Death Duty and probably CGT. The Lenders will insist on these measures as a condition.
If the Nats/ACT win in 2023 they will be able to reduce/repeal these taxes/duties and be seen as the heros.
As long as the global economy doesnt crash again they could govern for at least a decade.
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April 11, 2020 9:13am
- brett68
  
  Typical National approach, no interest in actually wanting to shape the country and do the hard yards, just want to get elected.
  
  Hopeless, Christ I hope they split and a real political party emerges
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:23am
  - emmess
    
    That was lastmanstanding’s opinion, there is nothing to suggest National wants to lose.
    BTW I disagree with him, I think by September, it will be clear how much the COL has fucked up the economy, relative to other similar countries.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:37am
    - brett68
      
      Bridges doesn’t have the vision, skills, ability or platform to pitch an alternative to what Cindy will be selling and to be honest, I’m not sure anyone else in National has the required skills either.
      
      It’s going to be a landslide victory to Labour in September and the country will be changed forever, this election will be on par with Labours victory in 1984.
      
      National will not exist in its current form in the coming years and probably won’t even look like it has a chance of victory until near the end of the decade and they’re going to have to be pretty left by then to even exist in the political climate
      
      This will be at least a 4 term Labour, Labour/Greens government
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:07am
      - brett68
        
        Btw, I’m not particularly excited about that future, but you have to be utterly deluded and blind to not see how it’s going to pan out.
        
        New Scandinavia here we come and there will be no coming back.
        
        Australia will be looking really good, hopefully, that 444 visa will still exist in a few years, not sure if I want to be trapped in the New Socialist Republic of NZ with Cindy as president.
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:34am
      - lifesgood
        
        In ya dreams.
        
        4 1
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        April 11, 2020 11:35am
      - emmess
        
        What rubbish
        I put this election at 50/50, much the same as before the CCP virus pandemic.
        But if the Labour are lucky enough to win, they will be absolutely destroyed at the following election in 2023.
        They will be totally out of step with international trends which were moving to the populist/nationalist right well before the pandemic. The EU will have collapsed by then, global institutions will be even more discredited.
        E.g. are they going along with the defunding or withdrawing from UN institutions, pulling supply chains out of China, renege on Chinese held debt, and demand reparations from the CCP?
        
        True, like 1984 where the NZ Labour party was ahead of the curve and later like in the 1990s, after the collapse of communism where left-wing parties across the west totally re-invented themselves. But I am not sure they are capable again, as the far left will not allow that to happen this time.
        
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        April 11, 2020 11:50am
      - Hard Cheese
        
        New Scandinavia….more like New Venezuela. There’s certainly no chance of us ending up like Norway with trillions of dollars in a sovereign wealth fund derived from exploiting offshore oil.
        
        Australia will come out the other side much better than us – governments everywhere will be trying to stimulate their economies through infrastructure projects, and Australia is well placed to take advantage of that. Unemployment will be high on both sides of the Tasman though, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them suspend the 444 visa. Obviously not very wise of Ardern spending the last 6 months antagonising them.
        
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        April 11, 2020 2:53pm
  - Lee C
    
    Yes this is so true. Brett. National are only interested in power.
    
    But riddle me this –
    
    After the last election, which major Political Party didn’t roll over and take it up the ass from Winston Peters, and give him the post of Deputy PM to shore up their lack of electoral validity?
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:44pm
- mikenmildagain
  
  New Zealand’s recovery will not depend on raising taxes, nor on cutting them. NZ remains in a very strong fiscal position with low government debt.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:26am
  - Jack5
    
    What about private debt, Milky?
    
    For example:
    
    https://www.noted.co.nz/money/money-property/household-debt-nz-levels-reaching-terrifying-heights
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:08am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    Wait till you have to get through a wage price struggle and meet stagflation. Muldoon achieved the impossible with pain and difficulty. Robertson will only compound difficulties he doesn’t understand.
    Your sycophancy is what helps destroy.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:26am
    - MCos
      
      Muldoon achieved the impossible alright.
      
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      April 11, 2020 12:27pm
      - KevO'Brien
        
        He tamed the wage/price inflation cycle. Other countries did not succeed. It was an awful time and we came close to not being able to import food.
        
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        April 11, 2020 12:57pm
kglm

I sense public opinion is changing. Acceptance and tolerance of the lock down measures are morphing into weariness and frustration, and an increasing awareness of the costs of lock down. Fear is subsiding. People are becoming more conscious of the costs and consequences of lock down.

I think this is evidenced by the shift in the tone of stories that now appearing in the media. We are now getting stories that highlight:
* 41% of the workforce is now supported by the Government
* the Government has spent more on benefits (excluding super) in three weeks than in a normal whole year
*the cost of the lock down for one day would build a major hospital
*doctors and hospitals are currently under employed
* its hard to see how some of the lock down restrictions prevent spread of the virus.

This shift in public opinion is likely to make it harder for the Government to extend restrictions. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing depends on your personal views.
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April 11, 2020 9:21am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  I sense you are wrong.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:48am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    You claim sense, too, after your economic predictions?
    I hope you’re not a Fraser House inhabitant.
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:29am
- YesMinister
  
  My friend is a nurse. They’ve been put onto week on, week off shifts because there’s no work for them. This manufactured crisis is weakening our health system worse than covid ever could.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:04am
  - Hard Cheese
    
    This was in the lead story on the Herald web site this morning, about police checkpoints:
    
    “Aside from the potential of spreading Covid-19 by travelling, there is the huge risk of crashes that would necessarily tie up already stretched emergency services and frontline hospital staff.”
    
    There are 15 people in hospital due to COVID-19. One five. Elective surgeries have been postponed. Our hospital staff are stretched looking after 15 people?
    
    This is all about reinforcing the Government narrative, spreading FUD that we’re about to turn into the next Italy any day now.
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:41pm
- Yvette
  
  kglm
  Jacinda Ardern has refused to postpone New Zealand’s September elections over the coronavirus pandemic, despite calls for a delay from her deputy and the deputy opposition leader.
  
  Winston Peters, the deputy prime minister, told Radio NZ his party, New Zealand First, had always preferred 21 November for the poll, and believed the coronavirus crisis meant the later date “makes even more sense” now.
  
  Ardern’s Labour party governs with the support of minority parties NZ First and the Greens, ahead of New Zealand’s most popular party, National.
  
  The most recent polling has NZ First dropping out of parliament, leaving a dogfight between the left-leaning parties and National for a majority. No public polling has been released since the outbreak of Covid-19 – Guardian
  
  One can see that Winston would like his term to last as long as it can – with Shane’s help, it is surely his last.
  Ardern may also see the biting financial consequences written on the wall (same one as the fickle finger has written “capital gains tax”, “kiwi build”, “Auckland rail”, “Ihumātao”, “gun buy back” and other things like Curran, Twyford, Meka Whaitiri, Shane Jones, David Clark) and would just like to get it over with.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:23am
  - Chuck Bird
    
    I also heard Bridges is talking 2021.
    
    Unless pubs, restaurants and sporting events are open by May 19 there is no way a democratic election can be held. All National’s regional AGMs have been put on hold and the main AGM in Wellington is very much up in the air.
    
    To have democratic elections candidates need to be able to door knock. An election is not just about leaders but candidates and policies. Voters must be able to question candidates and at local election debates.
    
    We have had the number of active cases drop by 20 today. We should see this continue to drop while some industries slowly start to operate safely.
    
    If might be hard for National to stop an undemocratic election but Peters could if he went rogue. Labour would not like it if he stated being critical of how they are handling the economy.
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:41pm
- Paulus
  
  Only two more weeks – you must be joking as it cannot be achieved in 14 more days – this Government is between a rock and a hard place to slow more rebellion.
  Not going to be pretty whatever way !
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:42am
- Fletch
  
  Just wait until Winter hits and people cannot easily go out for a walk in the sun…
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:58am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    or have to cue outside the supermarket in pouring rain.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:14am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      Woops…….queue
      
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      April 11, 2020 11:25am
- Philview
  
  Cam Slater said he had some leaked internal polling pointing towards Labour having the numbers to govern alone. He was vague on where he sourced it.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:29am
  - Biscuit
    
    Phil, I laugh at ‘internal’ poling.
    
    Winston’s polling figures never reflect his internal polling, e.g.
    
    And ‘Cam’ and ‘Vague’ are synonyms…
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:12pm
- lifesgood
  
  Not allowing groundsmen to do their jobs is insanity, They work alone right out in the middle of big empty spaces. This bloody govt hasn’t got a clue.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:37am
Andrei

Well this is comforting to know
Adult Toy Megastore has been named essential service by the Government due to its sale of condoms and medical items.

We live in crazy times, a disutopian Philip K Dick novel.
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April 11, 2020 9:21am
- emmess
  
  WTF?
  BTW, you can get condoms from a pharmacy or a supermarket. And they don’t go off like meat does.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:40am
- Colville
  
  What is crazy about a bit of bonking while you are locked in for 28 days?
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:53am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    Maternity wards will be overloaded next Jan
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:09pm
- Ruahine
  
  A wicked thought has just popped into my mind about the Gov’t and condoms.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:05am
- Philview
  
  I saw a headline in the UK online media that it was boom times for sex toys in NZ. I had assumed fake news but obviously not.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:31am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    Wonder how it is going in NZ? Mike said he has an online business selling these. Hey Mike, how much is a large pocket pussy?
    
    5 1
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    April 11, 2020 2:11pm
    - mikenmildagain
      
      I don’t sell to pensioners. I would wants deaths from over-excitement on my conscience.
      
      2 5
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      April 11, 2020 3:52pm
      - Steve Otto(North Shore)
        
        You have not got a conscience
        
        1 1
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        April 12, 2020 8:15am
Steve Otto(North Shore)

I think Donald Trump made a mistake but he is not admitting it. He locked down travel from China, but he should have stopped all travel from Europe as well. That would be where most of the infections came from. China to Europe then to US.
Then again I could be wrong, it is just my opinion
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April 11, 2020 9:23am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  Just the one mistake…?
  
  6 40
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  April 11, 2020 9:27am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    Maybe more than one, but nowhere near what would have happened under the corrupt lying Democrats. Hillary? no thanks.
    Trump is not perfect – nobody is
    
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    April 11, 2020 9:45am
- PhilBest
  
  He did stop travel from Europe as well a few days later. A long time before NZ did anything.
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:47am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    NZ could not do anything. PTPM waiting on advice from UK socialists
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:00am
oldpark

Whats new ,whats old . Exactly 75 years ago today Mrs Peters had a baby boy . She named him Winston.Nuff Said.
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April 11, 2020 9:24am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  I don’t hear any ‘happy birthdays’
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:01am
- rightoverlabour
  
  And the Whisky industry started celebrating in anticipation…
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:25am
  - Inandout
    
    And eating at the Green Parrot Cafe. Princess Jacinda doesn’t have to put up with this crap:
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/84158063/dispute-with-prime-minster-john-key-over-82-dinner-bill-heading-to-court
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:00pm
Tomtoddy

When the Coalition government under “kind” Jacinda stopped the upgrading of the Tauranga to Katikati highway they very coldly and dispassionately condemned 10 people to an early death. Not the old, frail and sick but a cross section of healthy NZ’ers.

They made a calculated trade off – lives for dollars. Kindness was not a factor.

The few measly dollars involved in doing up that highway are chump change compared to the dollars in damage being perpetrated by lockdown every hour. Yet we are wrecking lives and businesses, driving people to suicide, devastating the economy, splitting relationships and families causing huge angst to save a small handful of oldies on their last legs.

Time for commonsense and realism.
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April 11, 2020 9:25am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  There were 5 or more area where this happened, all National held areas. Coincidence? Nope, just the hate of the left
  
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  April 11, 2020 9:48am
Maggie Pie

Got home about an hour ago and had a wonderful long hot shower. Getting around the house without an ID Tag or wearing a face mask, I feel quite naked.
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April 11, 2020 9:28am
Steve Otto(North Shore)

There are still some kind, unselfish people left in this World.
https://inspire.awm.com/elderly-woman-dies-coronavirus-after-telling-doctor-give-ventilator-to-young-patient/
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April 11, 2020 9:29am
- YesMinister
  
  This is a propaganda story which has been told in various forms since the beginning of the pandemic. First it was allegedly an Italian priest, now it is an elderly woman. It’s made up. They’re not giving elderly people ventilators over young people anyway, triage requires it to be given to the person most likely to survive.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:02am
  - Steve Otto(North Shore)
    
    Still a nice thought even if it is fake
    
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    April 11, 2020 10:18am
Michael NZ

What Next?
https://unherd.com/2020/03/covid-19-has-exposed-our-financial-fragility/?=refinnar
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April 11, 2020 9:48am
mikenmildagain

Just a thought: what do Kiwibloggers think to be the best charity for a donation today?
I saw that Outward Bound and the Hillary Centre are struggling, as a domestic violence services. Any thoughts?
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April 11, 2020 9:51am
- Jack5
  
  You were championing Amnesty International New Zealand Aotearoa Inc yesterday, Milky.
  
  Given that the overwhelming majority of its donations are swallowed up in collection costs, that might be a good one for the economy.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:11am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Thanks for the suggestion, Jack, but I think this time it will be something more local, and struggling due to the lock-down.
    It’s a shame no one had any other suggestions.
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:59pm
Tony Norriss

Recording a 90 year old woman as dying from Covid 19 is over-dramatising the situation.

The fact is that nearly any infection can knock someone off their perch at that age. So, in this case it was covid 19. But it equally could have been the common cold.
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April 11, 2020 9:53am
- kowtow
  
  The Media party play all sorts of games with the stats so.:
  
  Without any disrespct to the 2 victims or their families one could say .
  
  Covid has a disproportionate effect on the South Island . 100 % of fatalities are on the SI.
  
  Covid has a disproportionate effect on women , 100 % of fatalities are women.
  
  All the deaths in NZ have occurred after the Level 4 lock down , the lock down is more lethal than non lock down
  
  ETC
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:46am
Steve Otto(North Shore)

Fridge just said the same thing as the other day.
“What the fuck do you want now?”
13 2
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April 11, 2020 10:07am
- Fletch
  
  https://www.facebook.com/peacefulcentury/photos/a.552267434885771/2846679892111169/?type=3&theater
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:01am
Maggy Wassilieff

Will NZers be willing to enter into Lockdown 4 again in the not too distant future?
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April 11, 2020 10:09am
- rightoverlabour
  
  What is the context of this? I assume we will go into 3 ( maybe) in 2 weeks time, the schools will be shut or half open (any staff or students with underlying health issues will not be on site – and the massive undertaking of the Min of Ed to courier laptops to thousands of families does not signal a short school closure) and then we will monitor cases, which I believe will continue at about the current rate as more and more people with corona and no symptoms are picked up. Cheers
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:33am
  - JamesP
    
    Context is here:
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120954076/coronavirus-nz-could-have-had-200-new-covid19-cases-on-thursday-without-lockdown-modelling-shows
    Despite the brave talk about elimination the truth is we won’t have eliminated it in 2-3 weeks.
    So the question is whether the rate of transmission under level three can be kept close to, or ideally under 1.
    I’m picking Maggy thinks not, which implies another period of spread, another growth in cases, and a likely return to level 4 at some point.
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:08pm
    - rightoverlabour
      
      Hi thanks. Cheers
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:51pm
- HemiT
  
  ah , now , have wandering about that’ for a while. the testing .. false-negatives , cases probable , test kit reliability and accuracy over the last 3 months .. theres so much to consider. i knew someone sick back in december so i wouldn’t be surpised if nz had already had a wave of covid through it. so i think the best thing to do is keep the virus isolated from the vulnerable. i think there would be a point in time where it would be actually untenable to remain in lockdown otherwise we all die.
  
  https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120903061/coronavirus-calculus-weighing-lives-and-the-economic-costs
  
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  April 11, 2020 12:23pm
Steve Otto(North Shore)

Will Cindy come up with this and say it is her idea, seeing as she loves the control so much?
https://www.lawenforcementtoday.com/dr-anthony-fauci-suggests-its-possible-people-will-have-to-carry-immunity-certificates/?fbclid=IwAR2zOJE1tW65_jly32xYP7pCRjTMqon-9RaBfTTxuAj7gENb5dD2sMM8a-c
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April 11, 2020 10:13am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  How about a star instead?
  
  16 4
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  April 11, 2020 10:19am
  - Engelbert Humperdink
    
    I’ll have an armband for 500 Euros thanks Alex.
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:03pm
Yvette

‘Delivers the stats like no other’: New Zealand’s Covid-19 crush on health chief
Dr Ashley Bloomfield has a devoted following of fans thanks to his unflappable demeanour and quick recall of coronavirus facts
An unassuming civil servant has become the unlikely hero of New Zealand’s coronavirus crisis, earning thousands of fans online and being nominated for the country’s highest honour.
Dr Ashley Bloomfield is the director-general of health and the public face of the country’s battle against the disease, alongside prime minister Jacinda Ardern. – Guardian

Without detracting from Bloomfield’s performance in the least, but is this not an example of how an image is media made?
Dr Ashley Bloomfield, the director-general of health and the public face of the country’s battle against the disease, alongside prime minister Jacinda Ardern –
So would Bloomfield make a good Prime Minister?
Without the image and communication skills, would Ardern make a good Prime Minister?

Former Prime Minister Sir John Key has praised Jacinda Ardern’s communication skills amid the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think she’s an outstanding communicator,” Key told MagicTalk host Ryan Bridge on Friday.
“Whatever you think of her decisions, she communicates really clearly and really well.”
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April 11, 2020 10:31am
- PhilBest
  
  In the early days of the Pike River Mine disaster, people were impressed with the TV performances of that manager bloke Whittall too…
  
  14 2
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  April 11, 2020 10:49am
  - fightingtemeraire
    
    The unflappable bloke was the MoD spokesman in the UK during the Falklands.
    
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    April 11, 2020 11:17am
HalfFull

Hmm bit concerning much!

1 hour about the origination of CCP Virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le_rfTdayLs
4 2
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April 11, 2020 10:36am
- NoCash
  
  Googled the channel a bit, it looks like The Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty (NTD) are funded by Falun Gong, I’m sure they have an axe to grind.
  
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  April 11, 2020 10:47pm
curry4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YgsgeX04TI
The China centric WHO calls Taiwan ‘raycist’. WHO suggests removing infected family members in a ‘dignified way’. Trump wants to suspend US funding to the WHO. It spends more on travel and accommodation than on some health campaigns.
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April 11, 2020 10:58am
curry4me

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/08/how_the_wuhan_virus_will_change_the_world_order_142886.html

Watch supply chains being removed from China. The degree of economic interdependence will be under the microscope. The biggest impact will be on China. It will reap the consequences of its lies.
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April 11, 2020 10:58am
- brett68
  
  We will side with China.
  
  3 2
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  April 11, 2020 11:17am
  - curry4me
    
    brett68: That wouldn’t surprise me. They have us over a barrel being one of our largest markets.
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:17pm
Fletch

Poem I found in a book today by Thomas Bracken, who composed our national anthem….

Not Understood

Not understood, we move along asunder;
Our paths grow wider as the seasons creep
Along the years; we marvel and we wonder
Why life is life, and then we fall asleep
Not understood.

Not understood, we gather false impressions
And hug them closer as the years go by;
Till virtues often seem to us transgressions;
And thus men rise and fall, and live and die
Not understood.

Not understood! Poor souls with stunted vision
Oft measure giants with their narrow gauge;
The poisoned shafts of falsehood and derision
Are oft impelled ‘gainst those who mould the age,
Not understood.

Not understood! The secret springs of action
Which lie beneath the surface and the show,
Are disregarded; with self-satisfaction
We judge our neighbours, and they often go
Not understood.

Not understood! How trifles often change us!
The thoughtless sentence and the fancied slight
Destroy long years of friendship, and estrange us,
And on our souls there falls a freezing blight;
Not understood.

Not understood! How many breasts are aching
For lack of sympathy! Ah! day by day
How many cheerless, lonely hearts are breaking!
How many noble spirits pass away,
Not understood.

O God! that men would see a little clearer,
Or judge less harshly where they cannot see!
O God! that men would draw a little nearer
To one another, — they’d be nearer Thee,
And understood.
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April 11, 2020 11:05am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  Bracken seems to have been influenced by Burns’:
  
  “Address To The Unco Guid, Or The Rigidly Righteous”
  
  http://www.robertburns.org/works/93.shtml
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:22am
Inandout

Big Barrel can deliver alcohol to your door, with prices like $43 for gin 1 litre, plus delivery charge, so you are looking at $50 for non rural. I would like to know how booze is ‘essential’?
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April 11, 2020 11:07am
- rightoverlabour
  
  For an alcoholic…. and if condoms are, I don’t see why booze is not.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:19am
- jimbo3
  
  Essential for me.
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:41am
  - BeaB
    
    Me too.
    
    7 0
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    April 11, 2020 12:08pm
  - BeaB
    
    And bugger the wowsers.
    
    10 1
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    April 11, 2020 12:09pm
rightoverlabour

Fantastic news – or not …

20:46 GMT – Uruguay to repatriate Australians, New Zealanders from cruise ship
Uruguay on Saturday will repatriate 112 Australians and New Zealanders from a cruise ship that has been stranded in the La Plata River near capital Montevideo since March 27, the government of the small South American country said.

The operation is to begin Friday evening when the ship is scheduled to dock in the Port of Montevideo. The Greg Mortimer is an Antarctic cruise ship operated by Aurora Expeditions.

The passengers, most of whom have tested positive for the coronavirus, are to be bussed to a special airport terminal with strict health controls. They are scheduled to board a Melbourne-bound charter flight in the early morning hours of Saturday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-rise-signs-progress-live-updates-200409231002574.html
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April 11, 2020 11:18am
Observer of Life

I stopped watching the daily updates about a week ago. I think when she announced the tooth fairy etc was an essential service, she confirmed it was really all about her popularity!
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April 11, 2020 11:24am
Maggy Wassilieff

Australia’s modelling advice
https://www.health.gov.au/news/modelling-how-covid-19-could-affect-australia
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April 11, 2020 11:28am
Swifty

Here’s another one of ‘R’s’ inefficiently-managed businesses that deserve to close:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324091

Good god, they’re everywhere! So much inefficiency!

But just thinking about this a bit more – I wonder if ‘R’ would say what he says about businesses and apply it to individuals?

He says businesses having to cease trading because of the lockdown must have been trading inefficiently and deserve their demise. If an individual is now in great financial trouble as a result of losing their job will ‘R’ also say “There’s an individual who was running their lives inefficiently and they DESERVE TO GO DOWN!!!!”?
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April 11, 2020 11:28am
- rightoverlabour
  
  I suppose R will have the same to say about these…
  
  “16.8 million Americans lost jobs in three weeks
  
  A staggering 16.8 million Americans have lost their jobs in just three weeks, a measure of how fast the coronavirus has brought world economies to their knees.
  
  Numbers released on Thursday by the US government showed that 6.6 million workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, on top of more than 10 million in the two weeks before that. That amounts to about 1 in 10 American workers – the biggest, fastest pileup of job losses since the world’s largest economy began keeping records in 1948.
  
  And still more job cuts are expected. The US unemployment rate in April could hit 15 percent – a number not seen since the end of the Great Depression.”
  
  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-rise-signs-progress-live-updates-200409231002574.html
  
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  April 11, 2020 11:49am
  - Swifty
    
    Those people must be inefficient work units and deserving of their replacement!
    
    🙂
    
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    April 11, 2020 12:18pm
    - rightoverlabour
      
      Probably we re not Comrade Union Members either…
      
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      April 11, 2020 1:31pm
Benedict Yu

My neighbour was having difficulty dealing with the lock down. Yesterday about lunch time she jumped in her car and never returned 🙂 Looks like that bubble popped.
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April 11, 2020 11:29am
- Engelbert Humperdink
  
  Did she drive to a Soylent Corporation outlet, which the COL want open as an essential service?
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:12pm
rightoverlabour

To all those suggesting herd immunity…

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-coronavirus-permanent-damage-200410112235801.html
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April 11, 2020 11:40am
- MrTips
  
  Not sure that argues your case ROL. 80% get mild symptoms and that’s ok according to Dr Khan. Enough for herd immunity eventually.
  
  The severe ones need a vaccine like they needed it for polio, smallpox, et al.
  
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  April 11, 2020 12:11pm
  - rightoverlabour
    
    I’m not arguing for or against. I just think we need more knowledge about this disease before we start suggesting solutions. S Korea is now suggesting probable re infection, although no one knows what is actually going on. As for the lock down I would like to see a reopening of more business with restrictions, more shops re opening and a relaxation on stupid rules around holiday homes and beaches. I’d keep the schools closed for as long as possible as there are few other situations where large groups of people are kept together for hours in confined spaces.
    
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    April 11, 2020 1:23pm
Maggie Pie

My partner has just returned from New World.
He was saying, “….of all the people he could bump into waiting in line, was his EX!”
They actually still get along quite well, and I must admit it was funny when he told me she said, “She couldn’t remember queues this long for food, other than in the early 90’s when they all lined up in Moscow’s Pushkin Square for the opening of McDonalds”
LOL!!
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April 11, 2020 11:41am
- emmess
  
  From the collapse of communism to the reintroduction of it?
  
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  April 11, 2020 12:23pm
- Biscuit
  
  Been there, Maggie!
  
  From my Diary notes:
  
  When it first opened, in 1990, you would have to wait in line for two hours to get in, typical fare in the country at that time.
  Once you entered, the floors were actually clean, ha, which would’ve been the first sign for locals that something wasn’t ‘right’.
  When you got to the counter, the staff would have smiles on their faces (definitely not typical of Яussiдns in the ‘service’ industry back then) and then, gasp, you were asked what you would like.
  This at a time in Яussiд where you literally were happy if there was something at the end of the line – and that you didn’t care if it was what you wanted or not!
  And then, to add to the confusion, the person behind the counter would ask you how many of your desired item you wanted.
  Not only did they have food, gasp, but they’d give you as much of it as you wanted.
  This caused so much stress and confusion (people initially thought it might be a trick and that the Government was monitoring their reactions) that McDonald’s had to put up a sign limiting customers to buying 15 Big Macs at a time, ha. The Яussiдn people literally didn’t know how to handle a lack of limits and choice.
  Also, in the bathroom, they had toilet paper! And if you took the toilet paper they’d put a new roll in. All very strange and new to the Яussiдns!
  
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  April 11, 2020 3:09pm
  - Maggie Pie
    
    I always wish i’d kept a diary Bikkie!
    You inspired to have a look on Youtube – and sure enuff, your entry was spot on 😀
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amx-JHhtsHw
    
    [They say history repeats – welcome to a ‘New World’]
    
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    April 11, 2020 3:47pm
    - Biscuit
      
      Mine is all on-line, Maggie.
      
      Easy to update.
      
      I remember playing with a laptop way way back in the day and telling a young lass peering at it that, if I pressed this button, the text would instantly go to someone 13,000 miles away. She was very dubious about the claim! Email was a real novelty back then!
      
      Hope you and the partner are having a great Easter.
      
      I am – just napped the Tri in the Queen Elizabeth at Randwick. The cat will get fed this year after all!
      
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      April 11, 2020 6:30pm
      - Maggie Pie
        
        Good on you Bikkie! Its always nice to be associated with winners 😀
        My mum was a mad punter – she always used to say, “When in doubt, take the topweight”
        
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        April 11, 2020 7:19pm
Pheobe

This was just posted on General Consensus site.

We need to be extremely careful to ensure we hold government accountable despite what media is reporting about the extreme and necessary measures now being taken.

Yes, Jacinda Ardern’s government has a difficult job on its hands but we must remember that it is only because of inaction for three full weeks prior to the countrywide lockdown that the taxpayer will be paying for decades ahead. Had the border been closed and arrivals quarantined immediately, we would never have been sent into this mess.

A year of virtue posturing and playing to the world media through ill-informed Arms Act amendments, costly and unnecessary firearms buy backs and media stunts with babies have not shown leadership but a selfish contempt for what’s best for the country.

A lot of Ardern’s support comes from die hard, life long Labour supporters with no real understanding of the situation (as made obvious through their comments online) and those who simply support her because empowerment of women is very much a current trend.

As the tax paying and voting public, we must hold government accountable for these costly failures despite what clickbait media is being shared online.
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April 11, 2020 12:23pm
- Ruahine
  
  The point that you make about the three weeks of inaction must be repeated over and over again because that is the reason why we are having in many cases our livelihoods destroyed. All of this so Ardern could play to the worlds media flying in on Emirates and Qatar Airlines for a sad spectacle at Horncastle Arena on March 15th.
  This truth is being buried under a deluge fluff from the Media.
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:37pm
- alloytoo
  
  “those who simply support her because empowerment of women is very much a current trend.”
  
  But they’ll still curse the memory of Mrs Thatcher.
  
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  April 11, 2020 2:06pm
NeverMindTheBollocks

One thing I’d like to see coming out of this event is a rethink by urban planners. For some time we’ve had the notion of medium density housing and high cost public transport infrastructure touted as the way of the future.
Densely populated urban areas & railed transport are clearly vectors for this disease.
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April 11, 2020 12:24pm
- doggone7
  
  The Auckland region agrees with you. Hamilton will be joined to Auckland will be joined to Warkworth will be joined to Whangarei.
  And the leading transport brain in the region agrees with your public transport notions. Mike Hosking wants Auckland to be rid of public transport and high cost public transport infrastructure.
  
  Health benefits are obvious in putting every person in their own vehicle, made possible through low cost transport infrastructure. Does that sum it up?
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:40pm
  - alloytoo
    
    The big CBD office rethink has already begun, working from home has been proven feasible, many businesses will be actively looking to break their existing leases and consider smaller satellite offices.
    
    When that happens public transport as we know it will become obsolete and commercial CBD property owners will be telling Phil where to shove his rates increases.
    
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    April 11, 2020 2:12pm
- Odakyu-sen
  
  Contagions just LOVE public transport!
  
  Didn’t you know?
  
  5 1
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  April 11, 2020 5:55pm
rightoverlabour

Why wont these F#@$! identify the clusters?????

“Both of the latest two people to die of Covid-19 were elderly – a man in his 80s passed away at Wellington Public Hospital yesterday and had a link to an established cluster which won’t be identified.”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324202
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April 11, 2020 1:25pm
- MCos
  
  From the MOH media release
  “ This gentleman had a link to an established cluster. To allow his family more time to grieve, we will not be identifying that cluster today.”
  
  I would have thought that was fair enough.
  The general public doesn’t need to know all the details without the family being consulted.
  
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  April 11, 2020 3:48pm
- UrbanNeocolonialist
  
  I can only think of one justification – that it would somehow hamper contact tracing – ie if it were something scandalous like a tinny house, or a swingers club or a brothel that potentially infected would tend to deny attending. Or maybe if it was a supermarket and Govt didn’t want to be embarrassed by their bad organisation.
  
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  April 11, 2020 4:05pm
Maggie Pie

Someone has just retweeted that there are some major concerns being expressed by the organisers of a very popular West Auckland Swingers Club. They’re now quite worried that their last party which was held early March, may turn out to be a complete cluster fcuk.
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April 11, 2020 1:28pm
- The Proper Ghandi
  
  “They” Maggie, “they”?
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:35pm
surfing

Funny, corrupt leaders of african nations are no longer able to whisk themselves off to Europe for medical attention.

Instead, they have to be treated within the cesspool health system which are a byproduct of their own greed.

https://unherd.com/2020/04/covid-19-will-expose-africas-tyrants/
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April 11, 2020 1:32pm
- kowtow
  
  No doubt our friends in the CCP will whisk them back to China instead, thereby cementing ties to resource rich sh#t holes ready for plundering.
  All in the name of advancing the cause of the international proletariat, comrade.
  
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  April 11, 2020 1:52pm
Fletch

A bored sports commentator at home, turns his commentary to his dogs ?

https://www.facebook.com/kudossports/videos/234474494433963/UzpfSTY4MjE4Mjk3MToxMDE1NzM1Njc1MTMwMjk3Mg/
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April 11, 2020 2:31pm
Loddenthinks

This from the “Bleeding Obvious” files – a breathless headline in Stuff lured me to click on the article, in the hopes that Iceland had discovered something important about COVID-19.

While they have managed to test 10% of their population, which at around 364,000 is tiny, they have yet to form anything like a useful conclusion.

Except of course, this: “Among the Nordic nation’s findings: about half of its population at any given time who have coronavirus but don’t know it, will be asymptomatic.”

You could have knocked me down with a feather. Ain’t science grand?
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April 11, 2020 2:32pm
- Fletch
  
  Israel reckons they have a treatment with a 100% survival rate –
  
  https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
  
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  April 11, 2020 3:25pm
  - Nickc2
    
    Wow, why is this not given legs?
    
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    April 11, 2020 8:10pm
mikenmildagain

As the Italians are locked down over Easter, the Archbishop of Turin has decided to exhibit a famous medieval fake online so the credulous may take spiritual comfort from its virtual form, rather than worshipping it in person.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/shroud-of-turin-will-go-on-virtual-display-for-easter/
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April 11, 2020 5:50pm
mikenmildagain

Trump toady resigns after calling aircraft carrier captain ‘stupid’ for trying to protect his crew:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/07/politics/modly-resign-crozier-esper-trump/index.html
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April 11, 2020 5:52pm
- Odakyu-sen
  
  Modly Crew?
  
  Captains generally don’t get to be captains if they are stupid.
  
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  April 11, 2020 5:58pm
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Nobody knew captaining an aircraft carrier could be so complicated…
    
    3 9
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    April 11, 2020 6:14pm
  - [email protected]
    
    100% agree!
    
    To get to the position of Captain on a US warship you have to have exhibited a huge amount of competence. For a politician to have a go at a Captain reeks of recklessness on the part of the politician.
    
    It seems that the only fault was that this Captain was trying his best to keep his crew safe.
    
    Hang the politician out to dry!
    
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    April 11, 2020 7:37pm
rightoverlabour

Now this is a law I like…

“Under Illinois’ felony murder law, charges can be filed when someone is killed during the course of a crime even if the death was caused by someone else and the person charged with murder did not intend for the person to die.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/arlington-heights/ct-ahp-video-home-invastion-tl-20200409-wbj72d6rkndvjcy4nufumyjr4u-story.html
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April 11, 2020 6:25pm
- [email protected]
  
  Go for a jury trial! I doubt that you will be convicted. Too bad about the cost of defending yourself.
  
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  April 11, 2020 7:41pm
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Yes, but what would a Trumpanzee know about competence?
    
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    April 11, 2020 8:12pm
greybeard

NRL & AFL: desperately trying to convince as many as they can that they are relevant.
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April 11, 2020 6:37pm
Fletch

Some scientist reckons we may NEVER have a vaccine for corona virus.

‘But I do think it is important not to create unrealistic expectations. No one has ever successfully developed a coronavirus vaccine, and we still don’t have a vaccine against HIV.

‘I would never say never. But this is my point about an 18-month timeline: it is heroic, really tough.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209743/Scientist-leading-search-coronavirus-cure-issues-warning-NEVER-vaccine.html
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April 11, 2020 7:26pm
- mikenmildagain
  
  Well, if the Daily Mail says so…
  
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  April 11, 2020 7:48pm
  - JamesP
    
    Different publication, different expert quoted, same opinion.
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/why-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-way-longer-than-a-year/
    There are no guarantees for a timeline or even of eventual success. It’s hardly a controversial opinion.
    Of course, the obvious negative implications for dear leader’s elimination strategy may be why you don’t want to consider it.
    
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    April 11, 2020 8:14pm

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