100,000 Covid deaths in US

The number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the United States is now 102,107. This is the largest death toll in the world, but of course the US ia a very large country.

The top 10 for number of deaths is:

  1. US 102,107
  2. UK 37,640
  3. Italy 33,702
  4. France 28.596
  5. Spain 27,118
  6. Brazil 25,697
  7. Belgium 9,364
  8. Mexico 8,597
  9. Germany 8,533
  10. Iran 7,564

Deaths per capita is somewhat different. If we look at major countries death rates per million:

  1. Belgium 808
  2. Spain 580
  3. UK 552
  4. Italy 547
  5. France 438
  6. Sweden 418
  7. Netherlands 343
  8. Ireland 331
  9. US 309
  10. Switzerland 222

For the US the key thing will be whether the number of deaths declines, increases or plateaus. The average number of deaths in the last week has been around 1,000 and a fortnight ago was 1,500 and a month ago 2,000.

So if it keeps declining, then all good. Obviously bad if it increases again. But if it plateaus at 1,000 a day that would still mean another 100,000 dead by August and a total death toll of over 250,000 by the election.

Even though the death toll is not just because of the response of the Federal Government, I think it is fair to say that the higher the death toll, the more difficult re-election for Trump is. But what is hard to determine is what the point is when soft Trump voters will defect. Is it 150,000? Is it 200,000? Or doesn’t it matter at all?

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