Fox News poll has Biden 12% ahead

The Fox News poll is one of the more accurate ones. Their final 2016 poll was spot on for Clinton and only 2% shy for Trump. Of course the state polls matters most, but a 12% gap in the national vote has huge implications for the swing states.

Their latest poll finds:

  • Biden 50%, Trump 38% (in April they were tied)
  • Net favourability scores of:
    • GW Bush +21%
    • Biden +9%
    • Trump -13%
    • Romney -2%
    • H Clinton -15%
  • Demographic breakdowns for presidential vote:
    • Men: Biden +3%
    • Women: Biden +19%
    • White women: Biden +1%
    • Moderates: Biden +37%
    • Urban: Biden +21%
    • Suburban: Biden +22%
    • Rural: Trump +9%

I can’t wait for there to be more state polls as they are the ones that matter most, but the national polls certainly indicate that Trump has gone backwards in the last two months.

A quick rule of thumb for adjusting polls to take account of the electoral college advantage for Trump is to add 3% on to Trump. In other words if Biden’s lead is 3% or less, then Trump is more likely to win.

This poll was 2% too favourable for Clinton in 2016 so if you adjust for that and allow for the normal 3% margin of error, then Trump needs to close that gap to under 8%.

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