Factors in National’s loss

I’ll blog more on this over the next few weeks, but here’s an initial take on what I think were factors in National’s loss. I’m dividing them up into two categories – those National did and did not have control over.

Factors beyond National’s control

  • Covid-19
  • The Government’s response to Covid-19
  • Jacinda Ardern
  • Jacinda’s 1 pm press conferences
  • The media
  • The huge infection rates and death rates in other countries
  • The fact that no Government has failed to win a 2nd term since 1975

Factors National has some control over

  • Having seven different Leaders and Deputy Leaders in one term
  • Jami-Lee Ross
  • Three years of leaks to Newshub
  • Hamish Walker
  • Andrew Falloon
  • A fiscal hole
  • SFO charging donors to National
  • Messy selections (Auckland Central)
  • Mistakes such as Goldsmith’s ethnicity, misfiring walkabouts

This is not a definitive list. It is to make the point that you can’t blame the result all on Covid-19, but also you can’t ignore the fact there were significant factors outside National’s control.

The key is to be realistic about what were the factors you did have control over, and how to minimise a recurrence in future. Also to look at the factors you don’t control and consider how you mitigate against them.

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