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October 27, 2020 2:00pm by David Farrar

Why ACT won and Winston lost

A very good article at Stuff looking at the successful ACT campaign and the demise of NZ First. The two are somewhat linked.

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Comment43

NZ Politics
ACT
Winston First

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Comments (43)

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cmm

ACT won large because National were bitch-slapping each other and forgot about the voters.
52 1
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October 27, 2020 2:16pm
- hmmokrightitis
  
  Amen to that. Ironically, because as Ive continued to state, National are and have been getting all too “churchy” for my liking. By all means do so, but dont expect those amongst us who are fiscal conservatives not god botherers to vote for you.
  
  Never has the expression loose lips sink ships been more appropriate.
  
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  October 27, 2020 2:24pm
- Catgurl13
  
  Yes but it didn’t help that certain MPs in the Nats decided to try to ruin things for Judith and the party. It worked!!
  
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  October 27, 2020 2:25pm
- kowtow
  
  Chris Bishop had been travelling the country having Meet the Prols sessions over gun laws .
  From what I heard they were well attended and he was well received,
  Then March 15 ………..and the Nats ran for the hills and so did NZF .
  
  Lo and behold the only MP speaking up was David Seymour. He now has 10.
  
  And freedom of speech , climate change and small govt.
  
  The Nats could take a leaf out of his book. Speak up for your constituents and don’t follow fashionable trends /focus groups…….
  
  30 2
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  October 27, 2020 3:29pm
- DeepBlue
  
  Review complete. Where shall they send the invoice?
  
  6 0
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  October 27, 2020 5:37pm
- The Boss
  
  The article is nonsense. NZF was at about 2% on the first poll after the 2017 election, and never recovered. I think people just had enough of his style of politics, holding the country ransom for weeks, pretending to negotiate in good faith with National when he clearly did not, etc.
  
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  October 27, 2020 5:49pm
Catgurl13

I think Winston giving millions to the racing industry and then to all the Marae around the country were the last straws. These really showed how sneaky and untrustworthy he was.
37 2
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October 27, 2020 2:18pm
- yossarian
  
  Personally I think he sowed the seed when he picked Jacinda over English. He thought he could out experience Jacinda, and be seen as the guiding hand to the govt. He didn’t read the tealeaves that the media were falling in love with her in 2017, and now that love turned into infatuation.
  
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  October 27, 2020 2:37pm
- MCos
  
  He was long gone before that.
  To my mind he made the same mistake as Simon Bridges, attacking the government on the one front where they were practically invincible as far as the voters were concerned, the handling of Covid-19 response, with polls showed 80-90% support.
  So 10-20% disagreed & ACT had already cornered that market.
  NZF was part of the Govt and should have tried to take some credit for itself.
  Any other time minor coalition partners do poorly in subsequent election, but this was no ordinary election & the Greens vote is increasing.
  For that matter ACT continued in the doldrums until Covid-19 challenged the Nats & NZF who caved under the pressure.
  Oct 2019 the Nats, despite J-L R were looking good to return to power at 47%, Lab 40%, the Greens were 7%, NZF 4%
  My My My
  
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  October 27, 2020 3:27pm
  - PaulL
    
    I don’t think that arguing ACT cornered the market on disagreeing with the govt is a good read of what happened. It’s about how they disagreed. There was plenty to disagree with, but they largely were principled and constructive and polite about it. If you just swing in the wind based on polls and no principles, people don’t believe you and don’t follow you.
    
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    October 27, 2020 5:43pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

ACT basically got the disgruntled National voters who didn’t want to vote Labour (unlike the backstabbling Farmers, small business and the Taranaki sheeple).
14 12
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October 27, 2020 2:31pm
- Gravelroad
  
  I’m a farmer and I voted for National, SCS.
  You seem to have lost your sense of humour.
  Before the election you were on here constantly with cute predictions that Cindy was going to bolt in and that you had inside knowledge of poll results haha haha etc etc – Now that this has all proved true, I would have thought you’d be happy as a pig in mud (not that mud is allowable now).
  Why so bitter about backstabbing farmers?
  You do realise that owner operator farmers make up up less than 3% of the voting capacity?
  
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  October 27, 2020 5:29pm
- Inandout
  
  SCS: 1,258,500 million are over 65 and have been fed covid fear at 1pm each weekday for months. There is your Labour landslide. I am astounded so many ‘waiting for Gods’ are so bloody dense (or bewildered).
  
  14 1
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  October 27, 2020 6:55pm
  - G152
    
    And since the election Cindy no longer fronts the COVID’s gonna getcha sessions.
    
    7 0
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    October 28, 2020 7:45am
  - Loddenthinks
    
    “1,258,500 million”? Crikey, that’s a fairly big number. I thought we only had just over 5 million in the whole country, and you reckon there’s over 250,000 times more than that just over 65?
    
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    October 28, 2020 9:30pm
RoboRob

I struggle to believe that NZF supporting the gun ban was what killed the party. I think people finally realised that NZF, despite all the bluster, really didn’t do what their voters were promised (again). There is only so many times you can blame MMP for not even attempting to implement your core policies !

For what it’s worth, I think Trumps efforts on trying to implement his promises (wall, tarrifs, no wars, bring solders home, repeal Obama care etc) will be recognised by his supporters. You have to give it to the guy, regardless if you support the policy, he tried really hard to implement what he promised. Compare that to NZF, who arguably could have used their possition to acheive a lot more but instead got a $3b slush fund in an effort to buy their way back in instead.
18 3
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October 27, 2020 2:32pm
- PaulL
  
  Yup. And every time NZF have been in govt they’ve lost that part of their support that really wanted the other party. Seems to me that they had more right wing voters than left last time – and those voters weren’t likely to vote for him again.
  
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  October 27, 2020 5:44pm
Ruahine

Winston lost because of the revelations about the NZ First Foundation. This information was released to Labours busy little helpers at RNZ. No prizes for guessing the likely source of the information. Labour have been pissed off with Winston Peters because of him using common sense and blocking the land grab at Ihumatao as well as Ardern having to back down over the CGT and a few others that stopped their so-called ‘tranformational policies’ It is his own fault though. He should have gone with National in 2017 like he said he would. Would now still have been the ‘man’. Holding the voters to ransom while he played his little game of who are his new best friends.
12 3
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October 27, 2020 2:47pm
- PaulL
  
  Disagree. I doubt most of his voters even know or care about NZ First Foundation. Winston lost because his cute game of pretending he’ll support both sides so he can take votes in the middle and “keep them honest” was shown to be the charade it’s always been. And his ability to use his “power” in the middle to moderate policies was also shown to be mostly bluster.
  
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  October 27, 2020 5:46pm
- curry4me
  
  Ruahine: I’m glad he didn’t, and I’m glad he’s gone.
  
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  October 28, 2020 12:59pm
Souvlaki

National lost the plot some time ago…..the kneejerk ,unthought through support /response to the gun register etc,nothing more than a “LOOK, ME TOO !! “,attempt at virtue signaling,cost them a VAST number of votes.
Any National party postmortem, must give cognisance to their abject capitulation on this, and a number of other factors too.
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October 27, 2020 2:49pm
PaulL

Only very good by the usual low standards of Stuff. 🙂

I think they still miss the bit where Act had policies that people liked. And portraying it as essentially a gun vote is very wrong, as is portraying it as Winston votes moving to Seymour.
31 2
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October 27, 2020 3:00pm
- Rumblestrip
  
  Absolutely. Act’s recent success, and NZ First’s failure, cannot be boiled down to one issue.
  
  Like all human decisions, voting choices can be complex, multi-factorial, organic. They defy simple explanation.
  
  The firearm issue was certainly one factor, but to imply it was the key issue is just nuts.
  
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  October 27, 2020 3:31pm
- Stephen Russell
  
  I think the idea was that getting the gun vote was the pebble that started the avalanche: it boosted Act at a critical time, and got people taking them seriously and thinking that maybe voting Act would not be a waste of a vote after all. That began a virtuous circle of increased attention and increased support.
  
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  October 27, 2020 4:02pm
  - PaulL
    
    Maybe. But mostly the media still gave them no oxygen and/or negative publicity.
    
    I think what mostly got them there was sensible and well presented policies. Most of what they had on offer I think resonated and was seen as relative common sense by a lot of people. Combine that with Seymour being seen as a solid sensible guy who’d done hard yards the last 6 years, and I think they pretty much got the vote they deserved, surprising though that may be to the left wing media.
    
    I personally didn’t love their tax policy, I still really don’t understand why the right in NZ can’t work out that the poorest NZers face the highest effective marginal tax rates, and they need a tax cut (i.e. a tax free threshold). Not doing that is criminal, and certainly made National an easy target on their tax policy.
    
    7 0
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    October 27, 2020 5:49pm
    - IC5000
      
      > I personally didn’t love their tax policy, I still really don’t understand why the right in NZ can’t work out that the poorest NZers face the highest effective marginal tax rates, and they need a tax cut
      
      They worked it out all right and decided that those on higher incomes deserved a larger tax cut. Those on lower incomes may have worked this out as well so voted accordingly.
      
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      October 27, 2020 8:18pm
David Garrett

I disagree DPF…Andrea Vance is simply incapable of writing any impartial story involving ACT or ACT’s new MP’s. She should have stayed working for some scandal sheet in the UK from whence she came.
43 2
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October 27, 2020 3:07pm
- Lindsay
  
  Who knew David Seymour was, “New Zealand’s most awkward public figure …” ? Suits her dramatic narrative though.
  
  21 0
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  October 27, 2020 3:32pm
  - PaulL
    
    It’s code for “how they hell could anyone have voted for ACT, must have been because of David Seymour’s awkward cuteness”.
    
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    October 27, 2020 5:49pm
tavita

I hope people voted for ACT because they liked their policies. People vote for National because they they liked the polices they had 20 years ago and hope they might get back to them someday. I think David was right on gun control but i don’t think it won him any popular support. National would do well now to concentrate on the center and leave the right to ACT – that way together they might win.
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October 27, 2020 3:12pm
- MCos
  
  ACT has been around for more the twenty years and for the last three elections before this one were on life support.
  I’m quite sure the public have been well aware of their policies and had voted accordingly.
  
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  October 27, 2020 10:18pm
hullkiwi

Seymour/Act’s rise and NZF’s loss of their votes to Labour are factors the National Party enquiry must take note of. This to help inform the party as to what they must be aware of in 2023.
8 0
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October 27, 2020 3:30pm
Surely Knott

The usual race baiting from Stuff is the feature. With Andrea Vance getting maximum value out of the quote “rich white prick votes.” It’s the highlight quote in her graphic at the top and twice on her twitter.
Racial stereotyping much? Can you say the same about any other ethnicities votes. Have Lab/ Greens got about as much as they could from the “broke brown bastard votes”. Can you say that? Yeah probably not.
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October 27, 2020 3:38pm
Gravelroad

https://www.act.org.nz/free_press_27_october_2020
I see ACT is resuming its roadshow meetings round the provinces.
Might go and see it this time.
I particularly liked the last paragraph of the release,
Come on National – where are you? Still scrapping it out amongst yourselves for plum for opposition postings?
8 0
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October 27, 2020 5:01pm
- curry4me
  
  Gravelroad: Thanks for the Heads up. I went to their function at the piano studio. It was 95% packed. I guess the Free Press will be on my e.mail too. I’d love to see them revive The Goss. It was very popular when they first got to parliament in the 90s.
  
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  October 28, 2020 1:06pm
Im Right

Look out for an interview where Winston will trash all in National, bitch slap the Greens…and of course it will all be other factors/people/parties that were all ‘against’ NZ1st and he and his party will be back bigger and stronger blah blah blah.
The guy needs to vent, and as he will not be allowed to say his swan song in parliament and slag anyone off with lies and innuendo, some soft journalist will be his vehicle to spout the bile that must be backing up something awful in him! – minus the parliamentary privilege of course heehee
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October 27, 2020 5:25pm
- sooty
  
  Baza Soper for a tame reporter!
  
  5 0
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  October 27, 2020 9:16pm
chukar

National was continuing to move to the left to try grab the centre votes.
They have been doing this for a long time now and have finally overreached themselves.
Core voters including farmers can not discern the difference between National and Labour.
Certainly voter trust has gone. So voters look elsewhere.
ACT ,NZ1 and the others are so far only minority parties ,but at least they are offering the opportunity for voter self expression.

It is a bit rich claiming farmers stabbed the Nats in the back. National have shown they are very capable of doing that themselves!
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October 27, 2020 6:35pm
gump

NZ First lost the election for the same reason that National failed to connect with voters.

They had no bloody policies. Nothing. Nada.

I kept waiting for National to provide major policy announcements but they offered nothing.
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October 27, 2020 10:38pm
- Paulus Gnome
  
  What utter crap
  
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  October 28, 2020 7:46am
Lee C

Seymour showed leadership., and encouraged debate.

Actual leadership – not the faux=’while under my leadership’ BS that Ardern likes to trot out to describe her politically advantageous screwing of the scrum to shut down debate.

National fell in behind Ardern and were essentially bitch-slapped into submission by her ‘kindness’ and the naked bias of the media.

I wonder how National would have done if they’d kept Bridges and Bennett?

Seymour spoke out as a voice of reason over Christchurch and Covid, and refused to be cowed by ‘trendy’ sound-bytes. He unified his party by showing leadership.

National were self-seeking and conspiratorial, they wreathed themselves in dishonour by sabotaging themselves within.

Fortunately for ACT, the media were not alerted to the threat he posed and so they didn’t set out to destroy him with a thousand cuts as they like to do to National.

PS I’d like to see Collins cultivate Nicola Willis MP as her heir-apparent and place her her in the job of Leader of the Opposition within the year, they would win an election for National.
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October 28, 2020 7:05am
Lee C

https://www.facebook.com/NicolaWillisMP/
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October 28, 2020 7:06am
andrewcarrot

2-Nil Bill ruined the National Party with his pointed candidate choices (which under Key was a process he also strongly influenced) and continuing support for his moribund, divisive colleagues, two of whom lost solid blue seats to Labour a fortnight ago. Some of the consequences of his realignment strategy were spotted by savvy voters during the First Reading of the EOLC Bill and subsequent voting during the Third Reading. Later this week we’ll see how out of touch the previous two National caucuses, led or strongly influenced by English, were with the rest of NZ on that issue.
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October 29, 2020 10:40am

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