Biden now ahead but close

Biden now has a lead in some key states, but it remains very close. He is now at 70% to win in the betting markets.

Fox News has Biden at 238 and Trump at 213. The uncalled states are:

  • Alaska (3) – Trump expected to win
  • Georgia (16) – Trump ahead 2.1% with 6% uncounted
  • Maine CD1 (1) – Trump expected to win
  • Michigan (16) – Biden ahead 1.3% with 4% uncounted
  • Nevada (6) – Biden ahead 0.8% with 33% uncounted
  • North Carolina (15) – Trump ahead 1.4% with 6% uncounted
  • Pennsylvania (20) – Trump ahead 5.9% with 16% uncounted
  • Wisconsin (10) – Biden ahead 0.6% with 5% uncounted

If the leader of each state goes on to win it, then you have Biden 274 and Trump 266.

But states like Georgia and Pennsylvania may still change. The votes remaining to be counted come from areas which heavily favour Biden. How much they favour Biden will determine the outcome in those states. If it is just say 2:1 he won’t pull back the lead by if it is 3:1 he will.

Also note the estimated of uncounted votes are estimates. In Wisconsin it is suggested there are actually only two small towns with 600 population to report.

UPDATE: Biden now at 77% in betting markets. GOP hold on Senate looks likely with Collins winning. Dems have held House. Some outlets have called Wisconsin for Biden. Trump has picked up Maine’s 2nd District.

UPDATE2: Biden now at 264 in called states. Just needs one of Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania. If he gets them all he gets 306 EVs.

Biden now at 86% in betting markets.

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