To lift our vaccination rate we need to not just vaccinate those already booked in, but get more people actually wanting to vaccinate. And sadly the data is not looking great. Here’s the number of people who have been vaccinated or booked in from MOH data:
- 23 September 3.347 million
- 28 September 3.375 million
- 30 September 3.388 million
So the total wanting to be vaccinated has increased just 38,000 in one week which is 5,500 a day.
So at this rate we would only get to 90% in 77 days at the current rate. Now sadly the rate is more likely to fall than stabilise or grow but let’s assume it stays at 5,500 a day. That means we get 90% with one vaccination by around 16 December. And waiting six weeks for second doses gets you to end of January and two weeks after that for immunity to be most effective and we are in mid February.
This means that lockdowns may continue until mid February, unless the Government can lift the vaccination rates.