We need a NZ version of this

The Immunisation Coalition in Australia has an excellent data tool which gives you relative chances of catching Covid-19, from it and also the chance of getting myocarditis from the vaccine. It would be great to have such a tool in .

You enter your age (54 for me), your vaccinated status (triple) and the level of community transmission (high) and it gives you simple clear . Mine is:

  • Chance of catching Covid-19 in next two months: 1 in 190 (1 in 69 if unvaccinated)
  • Chance of dying from Covid-19 if get it: 1 in 25,000 (1 in 2,900 if unvaccinated)
  • Chance of getting myocarditis from the vaccine: 1 in 140,000 for first dose, 1 in 1,000,000 for further doses. Background chance of myocarditis generally is 1 in 23,000 over two months.
  • Chance of dying of myocarditis from the vaccine: 1 in 85 million for first dose, 1 in 600 million for third dose. Background chance of dying from myocarditis generally is 1 in 880,000 over two months.

So if you are 54 years old and unvaccinated you have a 1 in 200,000 chance of getting Covid-19 and dying from it in the next two months. If you take the vaccine your chance of getting myocarditis and dying from it is around 1 in 66 million.

If someone is 20 years old and triple vaccinated, the stats are:

  • Chance of catching Covid-19 in next two months: 1 in 66 (1 in 24 if unvaccinated)
  • Chance of dying from Covid-19 if I get it: 1 in 440,000 (1 in 51,000 if unvaccinated)
  • Chance of getting myocarditis from the vaccine: 1 in 59,000 for first dose, 1 in 17,000 for further doses. Background chance of myocarditis generally is 1 in 25,000 over two months.
  • Chance of dying of myocarditis from the vaccine: 1 in 35 million for first dose, 1 in 10 million for further doses. Background chance of dying from myocarditis generally is 1 in 2.1 million over two months.

So if you are 20 years old and unvaccinated you have a 1 in 1.2 million chance of getting Covid-19 and dying from it. If you take the vaccine your chance of getting myocarditis and dying from it is around 1 in 4.4 million.

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