Cooke on Labour’s lost voters

Henry Cooke has gone through NZES data to look at who voted Labour in 2020 but not 2017, on the assumption they are the ones who have now left Labour. The true situation will be more complicated than that, but Henry is right that most of those who have abandoned Labour probably fall in this group. He identifies a number of attributes to them:

  • Older than the average voter
  • More likely to be female (58% were)
  • Have household income over $100,000
  • Own their own home
  • European
  • Lean right – 46% rate themselves a 6 to 8 on a 0 to 10 left to right scale, compared to 33% of all voters
  • On policy issues they are less focused on income inequality, are more liberal on abortion, more likely to think Treaty settlements have gone too far
  • On Jacinda they were massive fans – 93% rated her 7/10 or higher compared to 70% overall

These are the voters Hipkins needs to win back.

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