Robbo set to bail

As I predicted in my 2023 predictions, Grant Robertson is standing down from Wellington Central to go List only. I heard this was likely in mid December.

This is obviously to allow him to bail after the election, without causing a by-election. It is an implicit sign that he thinks it is likely they will lose.

It is fair to note that Bill English also went List only in 2014, but this was done at a time when National was way ahead in the polls, and his electorate was very distant from Wellington. By contrast Grant is MP for Wellington Central – he can walk out the door and be at any electorate function within five to ten minutes.