Re-election stats February 2025

At Patreon (paywalled)I have done my normal monthly summary of how Governments are looking placed for re-election. My intro is:

Nigel Farage is positioned to become the next UK Prime Minister, while the Liberals in Canada now have a real shot at retaining power thanks to Donald Trump.

My summary of relative chances in February is:

I would assess the order of likelihood of re-election as

1 The United States Presidency (Nov 2028)
2 Canada (October 2025)
3 New Zealand (Jan 2027)
4 Australia (May 2025)
5 The United Kingdom (Aug 2029)