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January 21, 2026 1:36pm by David Farrar

7 November

The election will be on Saturday 7 November

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Simon

A competent opposition would take National apart. But rest easy National not much danger on that front. Labour already framing the election about winning the Maori seats. Lol.

One thing National does well is narrative setting. The garbage they spew out is remarkable but the plebs like the messaging.

Economy wont improve much until 2027, National generally concerned about how Auckland is going. Not sure if Bishop gets it. He seems to be an utter bog standard Wellington central planning jobsworth. Does he know any normal people? Doesnt look like it. It will be a little tight but Winston will come through.
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January 21, 2026 2:07pm
- G the giant from Dunedin
  
  Rubbish, another set of figures showing improvement today as the service sector goes possible for the first time since the election
  
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  January 21, 2026 5:34pm
- pdm
  
  The more Maori Seats Labour wins the fewer they get on the list.
  
  At below 30% that makes the list a dangerous place for Labour MP’s.
  
  At their natural position of 24%/25% then even the very top ranking MP’s are at risk – bye Chippy.
  
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  January 21, 2026 7:53pm
  - sungsamning
    
    Oh, yes. I hope they win the lot then. Bad for the Racist Party, and good for race relations. Maybe one less coalition partner. There’s no downside.
    
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    January 22, 2026 9:48am
- Andrew M
  
  A strategy to take all the Maori seats isn’t a terrible one if it means TPM gets no seats and their PV is effectively redistributed among other parties for the purposes of seat allocation (Labour are ahead on PV in many polls so this could benefit them the most)
  
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  January 21, 2026 8:28pm
Im Right

Chippy moaning about the date, I guess he had a ‘moan’ excuse ready no matter what date was announced.
I’m a bit baffled with his quip that Labour are refreshed and will have new/fresh faces….apart from the guy retiring and a new one from the list coming in, who/where are the ‘new faces’?
Unless a few are looking to retire but not announced publicly yet, it’s same old Labour faces as far as I can see.
And with maori party implosion, his route to win the election is looking less likely.
(Plus Winnie will not go into coalition with Labour if Chippy is still leader)
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January 21, 2026 2:21pm
Positan

November 7, huh?

Remember the only guy who ever went to parliament with the right idea did so on November 5.
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January 21, 2026 2:21pm
rouppe

Might take a bit of planning…

The thing about overseas voting is you need an approved witness. That’s looking likely to mean consulate staff, not some random person wherever you happen to be. Even if they’re a nz citizen.

I’ll be in Southern Thailand then. I do have to travel to Bangkok probably Nov 4 to catch a flight to Bhutan 5th to go on a motorbike tour.

So I’ll have to book some time at the consulate for this…
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January 21, 2026 2:40pm
- greybeard
  
  Well good for you. Make sure you have insurance.
  
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  January 21, 2026 6:34pm
RoboRob

Prediction
Nat 34
NZF 12
ACT 9
National lead government ‘possible’ with 55% of the vote

LAB 33
GREEN 10
TPM 2
TPM out of power with the bulk of the lost votes and seats going to Labour.

Seats wise this could be very close due to the Maori seats and overhang etc

The danger is that, under these results, Labour and NZF could potentially form a two party government without the Greens. This is very dangerous. It would not be unreasonable for Winston to think this would be the best outcome for him and NZF voters. NZF would have real power.

This situation is mostly Nationals fault. Their weak polling allows for NZFs strong polling and puts NZF in the drivers seat. National could not even complain as their poll results would not be significantly higher then labours.

Of course this is all conjecture based on what I think the results might be. There is plenty of time for parties to significantly change the situation.

Fingers crossed the right can pick up enough vote to block the left and any overhang caused by TPM
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January 21, 2026 3:04pm
- G the giant from Dunedin
  
  How the hell could Peter’s go with Labour alone when Nats and NZ Aline are higher on you prediction
  
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  January 21, 2026 5:39pm
  - RoboRob
    
    Seat overhang (maori seats for Labour).
    Nat + NZF = 48%
    Lab + NZF = 47%
    
    TPM out means that those figures gain a portion of their 2%.
    
    Labour could easily end up with more seats then national if they take the Maori seats and do well in the cities (like Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin) .
    
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    January 22, 2026 8:40am
- pdm
  
  RR personally I think Peters going with Labour is the biggest danger New Zealand faces from this election.
  
  If he gets offered 18months as Prime Minister at his age he can conveniently have amnesia on the not going with them if Hipkins is Leader.
  
  Danger Danger Danger
  
  Remember 2017 – the man has form.
  
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  January 21, 2026 7:59pm
Maggy Wassilieff

According to Debbie…
Luxon’s retirement date:

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2601/S00091/luxon-announces-his-retirement-date.htm
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January 21, 2026 4:18pm
- G the giant from Dunedin
  
  She better be very careful with her arrogance, it may very well be her retirement date
  
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  January 21, 2026 5:39pm
  - Rumblestrip
    
    One of the great joys of the 2014 election was watching the loudmouthed racist thug Hone Harawira on TV, blinking in stunned silence at the moment it became clear that he was out of parliament.
    
    I pray for a repeat in 2026, with the entire dysfunctional Maori Party going down the drain.
    
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    January 21, 2026 10:06pm
Rumblestrip

It’ll be interesting to see how the campaign plays out. So far, Labour has made a few policy announcements that have been as appealing as a wet fart and have all the success potential of KiwiBuild.

My suspicion is it will be a negative campaign with the parties on the left attacking and complaining, rather than offering a viable alternative policy platform. Time will tell.
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January 21, 2026 9:04pm

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