The blockade is working

Erick Erickson writes:

Crude exports from the Persian Gulf are back at pre-war levels. J.P. Morgan puts the 10-day average at 17.5 million barrels a day, which is 98 percent of where it stood before the war. Goldman Sachs estimates the region exported 19 million barrels a day over the past week. Brent has come off its highs to about $103, and West Texas crude is trading around $90.

The Gulf producers did it by building 3 exits where there used to be 1. Before the war, 83 percent of Gulf crude had to cross the Strait of Hormuz. In September, about 60 percent crossed the strait, 23 percent loaded on the Gulf of Oman coast, and 17 percent left through the Red Sea. Much of that Red Sea oil moved through the same Saudi pipeline Iran’s allies tried to destroy. Iran thought it held a chokehold on the world economy, and the Gulf simply routed around it.

Iran is now the one country in the region whose oil is not moving. Before the war, it exported roughly 1.7 million barrels a day. In September, satellite data showed no Iranian crude leaving by sea at all. That is the work of the American naval blockade reimposed in July.

Last week at the United Nations, Iran offered to reopen the strait within 7 days. Its price was the release of frozen funds, an end to sanctions, and an end to the blockade. The President said no. A regime that was winning would not be begging for its money back in front of the General Assembly. A government that cannot sell its oil cannot pay those who preserve its power.

Erickson has been generally critical of what Trump has done with Iran. But he is right that the blockade appears yo be the most effective tool at the moment, and Iran’s leverage is slipping. It is important for the world that ships can access waterways without paying tolls or fees.