The Election in Brazil
I am married to a gorgeous lady – Luciana Soares Ramos – who came to NZ to live 18 years ago.
Two years ago we traveled to Brazil to meet and spend time with her parents. Her mom is in her late 80s and her dad is 95. Both are extremely astute and policially engaged.
Brazil only returned to democracy in 1985 after 21 years of military rule. While in the country we chose to watch this series about exposing corruption under “Lula”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mechanism_(TV_series)
As most will know, yesterday was the Presidential run-off election in Brazil. All polls indicated a narrow win for Flavio Bolsanaro.
From a economics statisticians point of view – far more significant was https://polymarket.com/ leading up to the day. With approx. US$70m being wagered you would expect the people staking their money to do their research. On the day before the election Bolsonaro was favoured strongly at 81%.
As soon as a voting extention was announced from a 5pm close to a 7pm close – the numbers flipped.
The result has already been challenged.
Luciana operates accommodation for international tertiary level students in Auckland. The one positive she notes is that she can expand her business and more students seek a better education outside of Brazil.
As an aside – Polymarket has Luxon only at 51% to become PM. My 5 cents worth is that the 300,000 not enrolled and the approach of young and disengaged voters on the day … would make that a very good bet.