November 8, 2026 3:03am by David Farrar

A Labour led Government is incredibly improbable

The results so far have 67 seats for the Government parties and 64 seats for the others.

National has 42 electorate seats. Those with a small majority are:

  • Hamilton East 456
  • Wairarapa 139

It is quite possible Wairarapa could flip on the specials votes but not likely Hamilton East would. If Hamilton East flips then you have Govt 66, Others 64.

Now on the party vote, National lost 2 seats on specials at the last election, and 1 seat on the elections before that. However due to overhang, losing seats on the party vote will not drop National’s number of seats. So the Government stays at say 66 (if Wairarapa flips).

The list seats on the provisional vote are:

116 Greens
117 Labour
118 NZ First
119 National
120 Labour

The worst case scenario is National and NZ First both lose a seat. This would take the Government to 65 seats. You would need both those seats to go to Labour and Greens to take the other parties to 66. Only then could Labour form a Government.

So for Labour to form a Government you need the following:

  1. National loses Wairarapa
  2. NZ First loses a list seat (not happened under MMP so far)
  3. Both Labour and Greens gain a list seat
  4. Opportunity to fail to negotiate an agreement with National (largest party)
  5. Labour negotiates an agreement with Greens, Te Pati Maori and Opportunity, giving them a one seat majority

So it is mathematically possible, but highly improbable. If you end up with 65 seats for each bloc, then Opportunity and National would have to reach an agreement (as Opportunity would be unable to get Labour across the line), or force a second election which the public would hate.