November 9, 2026 2:45pm by David Farrar

Hipkins has almost no path to power

The path to power for Chris Hipkins is incredibly small. At the moment the count is 67 for the Government, 57 for Labour/Greens/TPM and seven for Opportunity so 67 to 64.

There is a decent chance that NZ First could lose a party vote seat to Greens (or Opportunity) on specials. A friend has run some scenarios through Claude, and has calculated the following probabilities.

  • No change 34%
  • Left +1 19%
  • Left +1, Right -1 21%
  • Left +1, Left -1 11%
  • Left +2, Right -1 9%

So around a 26% chance it goes to 66 to 65, and a 19% chance it is 67 to 65, and 51% chance it stays 67 to 64.

Let’s say it ends up 66 to 65.

Wairarapa is held by 139 seats. Claude estimates that there is a 27% chance it flips on specials. But this is the vital thing. Even if it flips it makes it 65 all, not 65 CR and 66 CL. Why? Because if Labour wins Wairarapa they lose a List MP.

So even if the left gain a party vote MP, and NZF lose a party vote MP, and Labour wins Wairarapa the outcome is not a Labour-led Government. It is a hung Parliament with 65 seats for the CR, 58 for the CL and 7 for Opportunity.

Opportunity can’t put Labour into power in this scenario. Their only choice is to allow National to govern, or to force a second election. And could you imagine the backlash if the party that claimed they are the sensible moderate party who can work with anyone, then forced a second election costing $180 million because actually they’d rather force another election than give National a chance.

So for a Hipkins led Government to occur, they would need to not just have the left gain a seat of NZ First, and Labour win Wairarapa. They would also need to flip Hamilton East, while not losing Mt Roskill and TPM not losing Te Tai Tokerau.

What does Claude say is the chance of that:

  • Party vote specials cause left +1, right -1: 21%
  • Labour wins Wairarapa: 27%
  • Labour wins Hamilton East: 3%
  • Labour retains Mt Roskill: 90%
  • TPM retains Te Tai Tokerau: 98%

If these are all independent events (they are not), the chance is 0.15%. If you even just look at the most unlikely event of Labour winning Hamilton East the probability is 3%.

So according to Claude, the probability of Hipkins being able to form a Government with Opportunity is between 0.15% and 3%.

The probability of a hung Parliament is higher at around 6%.

So the odds of Luxon remaining Prime Minister are 94% or better I’d say. The chance for Hipkins is at best 3%. I know who I would rather be.