November 8, 2026 11:00am by David Farrar

How the polls did in 2026 vs provisional results

Here are the provisional results vs the final pre-election polls.

PollstersResultAnactaRoy MorganReid ResearchVerianCuriaFreshwater
PublishersNewshubOne NewsTPUThe Post
Finish Date12/10/202625/10/202626/10/202602/11/202603/11/202603/11/2026
National29.21%28.0%26.5%24.8%29.5%28.9%26.4%
Labour29.36%29.0%27.5%30.6%28.8%28.4%30.7%
Greens13.30%15.0%15.5%14.5%16.4%14.4%13.0%
ACT10.92%9.0%11.0%10.1%10.0%10.5%9.8%
NZ First9.78%10.0%10.0%9.9%8.4%9.8%12.0%
TPM0.57%1.9%1.0%1.9%0.4%1.1%2.0%
TOP5.96%5.4%8.0%7.2%6.2%5.8%5.1%

The difference for each company vs the results was:

AnactaRoy MorganReid ResearchVerianCuriaFreshwater
National1.2%2.7%4.4%0.3%0.3%2.8%
Labour0.4%1.9%1.2%0.6%1.0%1.3%
Greens1.7%2.2%1.2%3.1%1.1%0.3%
ACT1.9%0.1%0.8%0.9%0.4%1.1%
NZ First0.2%0.2%0.1%1.4%0.0%2.2%
TPM1.3%0.4%1.3%0.2%0.5%1.4%
TOP0.6%2.0%1.2%0.2%0.2%0.9%
Average Abs Diff1.0%1.4%1.5%1.0%0.5%1.4%

So Curia had an average error of 0.5%, which I am obviously very pleased with.

And whether the error was within the margin of error for a poll of 1,000 people.

Error within MOEAnactaRoy MorganReid ResearchVerianCuriaFreshwater
NationalYesYesNoYesYesNo
LabourYesYesYesYesYesYes
GreensYesYesYesNoYesYes
ACTNoYesYesYesYesYes
NZ FirstYesYesYesYesYesNo
TPMNoYesNoYesYesNo
TOPYesNoYesYesYesYes

These may change with final results, but overall pretty good. One company got 7/7, two got 6/7, two got 5/7 and one got 4/7