National did not lose party vote this campaign
As I pointed out previously, the overhang campaign did not actually see National lose party vote in the three months since it launched. NaNational lost party vote prior to that campaign, but in fact it had an exceptionally good campaign compared to previous MMP elections.
The table below shows the average party vote in the polls three months before an election, the actual result, and the change.
| Election | Polls 3 months out | Result | Change |
| 1996 | 42% | 34% | -8% |
| 1999 | 35% | 31% | -4% |
| 2002 | 27% | 21% | -6% |
| 2005 | 41% | 39% | -2% |
| 2008 | 49% | 45% | -4% |
| 2011 | 54% | 47% | -7% |
| 2014 | 51% | 47% | -4% |
| 2017 | 45% | 44% | -1% |
| 2020 | 28% | 26% | -2% |
| 2023 | 35% | 38% | +3% |
| 2026 | 29% | 29% | -0% |
In nine out of the ten previous MMP elections National’s party vote slipped from 1% to 8% in the last three months. In 2026 it stayed constant despite a $500k campaign urging National supporters to not vote National. This is a remarkable result and shows National’s campaign was incredibly effective.
The overhang was not caused by National voters voting tactically on the party vote. It was caused by National over-performing on the electorate vote.
Where there clearly was party vote tactical voting was on the left. Te Pati Maori’s party vote in the seven Maori electorates fell from 30% to 5%!!! The TPM MPs did not even vote for their own party on the party vote.
Overhang was caused by Te Pati Maori. If you don’t like the result, blame them.