There are 220,720 specials, which represents 11% of the total votes cast. If no special are invalids, this is what impact they could have. At present the seat allocation is:

• 120 – National (last one in – Aaron Gilmore)
• 121 – NZ First
• 122 – National
• 123 – Greens
• 134 – Labour

If National gets only 44.6% of specials, then that drops overall vote from 47.99% to 47.81% and National drops to 59 seats, with the extra seat going to NZ First or Greens most likely. This would mean National/ACT/United have 61/121 seats and have a majority.

The great irony is this scenario eventuates is that if Labour had now won Te Tai Tonga, then there would be no partial asset sales. If Rahui Katene had held that seat for the Maori Party, then Parliament would be 122 MPs (as it would be an over-hang seat) and 61/122 would not be enough. So a huge irony in that Labour winning a seat has made it easier for National to govern.

For National to lose two seats, would be very unlikely. This has not happened under MMP with a specials count. It would need this scenario.

National to get just 41% of specials, NZ First to get 8% of specials and Greens 14% of specials. This would make the total vote for each to be 47.4%, 11.0% and 6.9% respectively and they get 58, 14 and 9 seats each.

Hard to see National getting just 41% of specials. If that did eventuate, then the Maori Party would hold the balance of power, but as I said no party has ever lost two seats on specials.

My initial thoughts on the winners and losers from the election.

Winners

John Key. Key has broken his own record for the highest party vote percentage achieved under MMP. Governments normally lose support, not gain it. The Clark Government did increase support in 2002 by 2% but this was really just picking up some of the Alliance vote which had been 7% and collapsed. Key is not only re-elected Prime Minister, but has the ability to implement National’s policy programme.

Steven Joyce and Jo de Joux. This is the third campaign in a row for the campaign chairman and manager (plus three by-elections). In 2005 the National vote went up 17% which at the time was all attributed to Don Brash, but the campaign played a major part also. They ran the 2008 campaign to victory and in 2011 set a target of 48% of the party vote. The count closed last night at 47.99% so that is as precise as you can get.

Gerry Brownlee. National won the party vote in all Christchurch electorates and have won Waimakariri plus tied in Christchurch Central. This would not have happened if there was wide-spread dis-satisfaction with the Government’s response to the earthquake.

Winston Peters. Made the 5% threshold with room to spare. A remarkable comeback. Will have little influence in the next three years, but is well positioned to hold the balance of power in 2014. Biggest challenge may be to avoid scandals. Will soon be in his 70s so may need to start thinking a leadership transition, which could be Andrew Williams.

Damien O’Connor. Only Labour MP to win a seat off National.

Nikki Kaye and Paula Bennett. Both with-stood massive challenges from Labour in Auckland, who targeted all their regional resources into winning Auckland Central and Waitakere. Even massive tactical voting from Green voters wasn’t enough to knock them out.

Metiria Turei and Russel Norman. They made 10% and got four extra MPs. A very good night for them.

John Banks and Peter Dunne. Partly thanks to the rise of Winston, centre-right voters showed their intelligence and voted to help ensure a National-led Government can implement a centre-right policy programme.

Losers

Phil Goff, whose political career is over. However he should not be judged by the last three years. I’ll blog in more detail on Goff later, but he has done many things to make New Zealand a better place, and was handed a poisoned chalice by Clark.

Trevor Mallard. Labour’s campaign manager managed to knock nine of his colleagues out of caucus, and drop Labour to their lowest share of the vote since the Great Depression. The disgraceful smear pamphlets reminded many people of why they voted to evict Labour in 2008.

Don Brash, He promised up to 15% and in the end failed to even get himself elected to Parliament. A sad end to a great contribution to NZ public life.

ACT. Great for National that Banks won, but will a Banks-led ACT be viable for the future? I’m not so sure.

Colin Craig. He boasted for months on the back of a very misleading poll that he would win Rodney and he got thrashed. He spent a huge amount of the party vote and got nowhere near the 5% threshold. May have had a future if NZ First had not made it back (as policies in many areas similar) but hard to see where he can gain extra support from now.

Horizon Polls, the Sunday Star-Times and Radio Live. I will post in detail on this, but the media who kept running that poll as news worthy should be humiliated. Almost all year they have been saying National has only around 35% of decided voters, and the election results shows their methodology is fatally flawed.

Got in at 5.30 am to my hotel room. Woken up at 7.40 a.m. for radio commentary which I think I did while my state was officially semi-conscious. Fallen asleep again until evicted by hotel at 10.30 am. Have many posts on the election, the  winners and losers, what might specials do, and what Parliament looks like to come. But not for a couple more hours yet!

You can comment away now. I’ll try and post the odd update but my primary commitment tonight is commentary on TV One. Also doing a bit for NewstalkZB and Radio Live and the OU/Herald Online coverage.

Non-political debate only until 7 pm.

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The Electoral Act states in Paragraph (g) of Section 197(1) that it an offence at any time on polling day (before 7 pm) to publish any statement advising or intended or likely to influence any elector as to the candidate or party for whom the elector should or should not vote, or any statement advising or intended or likely to influence any elector to abstain from voting.

This means I will not be posting any material after midnight that could be seen as influencing any elector as to how to vote, or not to vote. I am asking all those who comment to do the same. The law should be interpreted broadly, so do not post comments tomorrow on any candidate, MP or party, current issues or policy.

It is not my intention to disable commenting, just as I don’t expect Trade Me will close down their forums for the day. If any commenter does post a comment that could be considered in breach, I will be happy to supply their e-mail address and IP address to the Electoral Commission. I will also delete the comment and suspend the account.

If a number of people act retarded and post stuff they should not, them I may stick moderation on for comments so they do not appear automatically. I’d rather not do that, unless necessary.

I’ve already voted. I voted today for National, for Paul Foster-Bell, for change, and for STV. Whether or not you vote the same as me, make sure you vote before 7 pm tomorrow.

Mike Smith is the former General Secretary of the Labour Party. He has just blogged:

Grant Robertson – good electorate MP, got a strategic brain, good communicator. It’s time for a new generation leading Labour in my view.

That is significant for such a senior former official to say Goff should go on the eve of the election.

I think Grant will be Labour Leader and Prime Minister one day. If I was Grant though I would not stand next Tuesday, but instead wait until after the 2014 election.

Winston has said:

Rt Hon Winston Peters says the National Party’s paid blogger David Farrar is spreading confusion about New Zealand First on the last day of the election campaign at the behest of politicians who should know better.

Winston normally starts with a lie, and he rarely disappoints. I’m not paid by anyone to blog. The blog does gain some revenue though through advertising, and the major advertisers this election have been Labour, Greens and Forest & Bird.

And the blog post was not at the behest of any politician. Not a single person knew I was going to blog on this, until it appeared. The issue only came to my attention this morning.

Farrar has written a blog about New Zealand First claiming it is an incorporated society when in fact it is a registered political party. An incorporated society simply holds and protects the name “New Zealand First”, which has been the case since 1993.

Winston is claiming there are really two New Zealand Firsts. I quote in rebuttal from an article by David Fisher, then of the Listener on 16 August 2008:

Contacted by the Listener, Catchpole, treasurer from 2005 until the party’s convention earlier this month, says: “They are one and the same really, the incorporated society and the party, because the party constitution and rules are all registered with the incorporated society. That basically makes it one entity.”

Winston is again relying on deception. If they were different entities, why would other rules changes been filed with the Registrar.

I also quote his party president:

Asked about the incorporated society, Groombridge says: “That’s the party itself.”

No one but Winston thinks they are separate entities. remember this is the man who said on dozens of occasions that he knew nothing of the $100,000 donation from Owen Glenn.

Just been relayed this story from a grandfather whose grand-daughter is visiting him.

The grand-daughter goes to St Brigid’s School in Johnsonville and she told her grand dad about how some of the other 11 year olds at the school were earning money, specifically $10 an hour, to wave signs List for MP and candidate Charles Chauvel.

Isn’t Labour saying the minimum wage should be $15 and hour and there should be no youth wages?

Not a lot of local support it seems if you have to hire sign wavers.

I do hope Charles is including the wages of his hired help in his campaign budget disclosure. I also hope he is deducting and paying tax. As a lawyer I am sure he very aware of the law.

An investigation by Kiwiblog has found that the candidacy of Winston Peters for New Zealand First is illegal under the Incorporated Societies Act 1908.

Unlike other political parties, New Zealand First is an incorporated society. That means it has to obey the rules laid down under the Incorporated Societies Act 1908.

Section 21(2) of the Act states:

Every alteration of the rules must be—

• (a) in writing; and

• (b) signed by at least 3 members of the society; and

• (c) delivered to the Registrar accompanied by a certificate by an officer of the society or a solicitor certifying that the alteration has been made in accordance with the rules.

And Section 21(3) states:

The Registrar, if satisfied that the alteration has been duly made, and that the rules as so altered conform in all respects to this Act, shall register the alteration in like manner as in the case of the original rules, and the said alteration shall thereupon take effect according to the tenor thereof.

In plain English this means that any rule change for an incorporated society does not take effect until the Register has approved them. This is well known to lawyers.

NZ First says they changed the rules of NZ First back in July to allow the Leader to be a list candidate, without being an electorate candidate. However they have not filed this rule change with the Registrar of Incorporated Societies and hence, the old rules still apply. They have filed them with the Electoral Commission *but only after I blogged pointing out they have not) but not with the Registrar as the website shows. There have been no rules changes registered since 2008.

This means the version of their constitution which is still legally in force states:

Rule 46(b):

A List candidate must first be selected as an Electorate candidate

Winston Peters did not get selected as an electorate candidate, so his nomination as a list candidate is illegal under the rules of the NZ First Party, as governed by the Incorporated Societies Act.

If he is not a legal candidate for the New Zealand First Party, then any election of him to Parliament can be challenged. This has happened before when a nomination has been accepted (Kelly Chal for united Future in 2002) but after the election it was found she was ineligible and she was removed from the United Future party list.

The case is more complicated here as it is the Incorporated Societies Act, not the Electoral Act, that makes Peters an illegal candidate for New Zealand First. I can almost guarantee you though that if he is elected, lawyers will be looking to take legal action. Incorporated Societies can be forced to obey their own rules, as we saw in the legal action against the NZ Rugby Football Union over a proposed tour of South Africa.

If Peters is removed from their party list, then presumably No 2 Tracey Martin would become the Leader of NZ First.

My Stuff column is on how the election outcome is not settled. I conclude:

So I don’t regard the outcome of the election tomorrow as settled. Certainly National is in a much better position than Labour. But under MMP, even a 23-point lead in the polls does not guarantee you government.

My message to all Stuff readers is to make sure you vote. Do not think the outcome of this election and the identity of the next government is settled. No matter who you support, make sure you have you say and cast a vote today or tomorrow.

Talking of voting, what is the weather forecast for tomorrow?

I blogged yesterday on some of the policies I liked from Labour and other minor parties. Today is the policies I think will be awful for New Zealand, if we get a Labour-led Government.

1. No path out of debt and back into surplus. If Labour were to govern alone, then the extra debt might only be $12b. But the Greens and NZ First (and the Maori and Mana parties) have literally tens of billions of dollars of spending promises. Winston makes Greece seem fiscally conservative by comparison.
2. A return to 1970 style national industry agreements. Labour’s industrial relations policy was written by the CTU. Unions would gain the power to get a Government appointed body unilaterally impose terms and conditions on every employer in an industry.
3. Repeat violent and sexual offenders will get out of jail much earlier. Labour has vowed to repeal the three strikes law. Under this law an offender whose third strike is a rape will get 20 years with no parole. Labour will repeal the law so that they get out much earlier. Many murderers have multiple previous convictions for previous violent and sexual offending. Off memory, it is around 80. If they had not been released early on parole, many of their victims would still be alive.
4. $70/week more to stay on a benefit. Labour is pledging to give parents who are beneficiaries an extra $70/week. Parents who are not beneficiaries will only get $10/week. This rewards people for not working.
5. Parents will no longer know how their kids are doing at school. Many parents have complained in the past that school reports do not tell them are their kids reading, writing and doing maths at the level expected for their age. Labour will repeal National Standards which required parents to be told how they are doing against the appropriate age standard for numeracy and literacy. This will lock in the 20% of kids who leave school with no qualifications as they were not identified early on as needing assistance. It is too late by the time they reach secondary school.
6. 10 extra costs on businesses.  Labour are proposing 10 extra costs on businesses. The cumulative impact of their policies will be destruction of jobs, leading to more people on welfare, fewer taxpayers and greater debt.
7. A directionless health system. Labour will return the health system to what we had in 2008 where the public health service had 13 health priorities, 61 objectives, 10 health targets and 47 indicators. The result was massive waiting times for elective surgery, Kiwis having to go to Australia for cancer radiation treatment, and huge delays in A&E centres.
8.  Increased power prices. Labour will retain 100% of the energy SOEs and milk them for dividends as they did in the last Government. Labour’s record was a 65% increase in power prices and raking in over $3b of dividends. They are budgeting for dividends from SOEs to massively increase to pay for their spending plans. On top of that their ETS changes will also push power prices up even further, and their ban on future non-renewable energy will be a third factor pushing prices up
9. Youth Unemployment will not drop. Since Labour abolished youth rates in 2008, youth unemployment has skyrocketed.  Labour’s policy is that should be illegal for a 16 year old with no skills, no experience and no qualification to work even part-time for less than $15 an hour. Young people will continue to face huge difficulty in gaining their first job.
10. The cost of living to go up, up, up. Don Brash may have struggled as Leader of ACT, but he was globally recognized as the world’s best Reserve Bank Governor whose job was to keep inflation down. Labour and the other left parties want to ditch the bipartisan agreement on monetary police we have had for 25 years, and remove the focus of the Reserve Bank from being just keeping inflation and prices down.  This means that prices will go up across the board. On top of that Labour’s extra spending will increase debt and also fuel inflation. Rents will also go up due to their Capital Gains Tax.

I could do more than 10 reasons not to vote for Labour, but I hope these ten will suffice as the entree at least.

I’m voting for STV, not SM, but I do like the cartoon!

THIS SATURDAY ON THE BACK BENCHES—ELECTION NIGHT SPECIAL: Watch Wallace Chapman, Damian Christie, the Back Benches Panel and special guests as the election results roll in!

We’ll bring you up-to-the minute election results using the most hi-tech equipment on offer—the Electionator 2000.2.1. We’ll be visited by the candidates and special guests. Plus, our fifth panellist—the audience. All will be a part of the show. Be there or be square for the best Election Night party in town.

Join us for a night of LIVE pub politics from the Backbencher Pub for the Election Night Special—at a new hour: Saturday, 26th of November from 8-9pm. Our Panel: Charles Finny of Saunders Unsworth, Victoria University Lecturer Ana Gilling, James Sleep Step Up Spokesman, and Mark Unsworth of Saunders Unsworth.

Broadcast on TVNZ 7

Roy Morgan released a poll overnight, which some may have missed. I’ve blogged details at Curiablog.

One aspect of the poll makes me a bit doubtful of its salience – those who say the country is heading in the right direction dropped 11% from last week. That is a huge drop for one week, and suggests to me the sample may be over-represeted with “grumpies”. But we will see tomorrow.

What is interesting is the seat projections on their poll:

If all parties hold their current seats, it is:

• National 60
• Labour 29
• Green 18
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

If Banks does not win Epsom and Dunne does not win Ohairu, it is:

• National 62
• Labour 30
• Green 18
• Maori 4
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

In this scenario National just has to drop one further seat and it can not form Government, as the Maori Party holds the balance of power.

Phil Goff could almost form Government on 23.5% of the vote if he does deals with Greens, NZ First, Maori and Mana parties.

It would be a good result for Phil Goff as he keeps his job. Not so good for his colleagues though as on this poll, Labour would lose 13 MPs, but get to form Government.

This is a summary of the polls released this week. You can click on it for a larger version.

• The first five columns are the five main public polls.
• The simple average is just that – the mean of their results
• The weighted average is weighted by size and date. The full methodology is at Curiablog.Those polls which cover an earlier period are weighted slightly less. The fact this varies from the simple average shows there is some movement in the final days – National and Greens down a bit and Labour and NZ First up a bit
• The weighted seats is how many seats each party would have if that was an election result, assuming all electorate seats stay with the party that currently holds them (exception is Wigram going from Progressive to Labour)
• For comparison I have the final Horizon poll. The Horizon poll features regularly on Radio Live and on the front page of the Sunday Star-Times. Their published figures include 1.3% undecided which I have adjusted their results for, so like the other polls it is a percentage of decided voters. This allows a comparison to election results.
• I also have the seat projections based on the final Horizon poll.
• Under the weighted average there would be a centre-right Government of the only three parties pledged to support National.
• Under Horizon’s poll there would easily be a centre-left Government with the four centre-left parties having 67 seats.
• The Maori and Conservative parties have said they will go with either Labour or National so are shown in their own bloc

People should be aware of the commentary with the final NZ Herald poll:

Today’s poll also throws up a bizarre possible outcome – National winning more than 50 per cent of the party vote but still needing Act, the Maori Party or United Future to give it a majority in Parliament.

This could happen if today’s poll results were translated to votes.

The revival of New Zealand First – which National won’t deal with – could make the survival of Act crucial.

The Maori Party could be in the box seat to negotiate a confidence and supply agreement to give National a cushion of comfort if Act and United Future don’t make it.

The reason National could get a majority of party votes tomorrow but not a majority of seats in Parliament is the overhang factor.

If today’s poll figures were translated to votes, United Future, the Maori Party and Mana would get more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement.

When that happens, the size of Parliament expands beyond 120 seats, and the parties are allowed to keep the extra seats.

In this case, the “overhang” seats would take Parliament to 126 seats.

In that scenario, a Government would need 64 seats for a majority and in today’s poll, National would have 63 seats – based on the assumption that Act, Mana, United Future and the Maori Party will keep their electorate seats.

Only Act and United Future have pledged to support National.

MMP does not always deliver proportional results. As the Herald says, one could have National get over 50% of the votes, but lose power.

It is quite simple. If you want a National-led Government, party vote National. If you live in Ohariu you should vote for Peter Dunne or Winston may get to pick the Government. If you live in Epsom and want John Key to remain Prime Minister, you should vote for John Banks.

The Conservative Party have not said they will back National. Do not think a vote for them, or a vote for Craig, is a vote for John Key to remain Prime Minister.

It should not be assumed the Maori Party would back National if they hold the balance of power. They have more policy in common with Labour, and would be more likely to retain their seats in 2014 if they go with a centre-left Government.

Despite the fact the average of the polls show Phil Goff is leading Labour to their lowest ever vote share, the way MMP works means he can still emerge Prime Minister. National would never say yes to the huge spending demands that the Greens, and Winston would demand for supply and confidence.

People may also wish to think about how they will vote in the referendum, based on the scenario outlined by the NZ Herald that MMP could deliver government to Labour on 28%, even if National gets 51%. Do you want to lock MMP in as our electoral system for the next 50 years, or do you want to vote to have a referendum in 2014 pitting MMP against the most popular alternative?

Have a look at what John Key and Phil Goff are saying on the referendum, and decide for yourself.

UPDATE: The original version did not include the Roy Morgan poll released overnight. This is now included.

After the balloon and streamers of Saturday night, Sean Plunket, Duncan Garner and Colin James headline our post election interviews and analysis. We’ll have leading figures from all the parties ready to answer the big questions — What Next? Who will form the Government? Can Phil Goff hang on as Leader of the Labour Party? Has John Key emerged from the campaign unscathed? etc etc

TWO HOUR POST ELECTION SPECIAL TV3 27/11/11 8 am

I’ve had a goal this election, and it is nothing to do with party vote or electorate seats.

Due to the nature of my jobs – pollster, blogger, media commentator – the election period is an incredibly busy one. Generally working until midnight, sometimes a bit beyond. Due to the extended hours one is working, it is easy to have an unhealthy lifestyle. No time to exercise, and no time to shop, so snack on food a lot.

I was determined to not let that happen this time (this is my 9th general election campaign), as my weight was already far too high. It peaked at 110 kgs which is okay for a 6’6″ All Black prop, but not for me!

So just over three months ago I set myself a target of getting below 100 kgs for the first time in probably a decade, and even harder to get it to drop during the election period, rather than increase as it normally does.

Last week it was down to 101.3, beginning of this week it was 100.3 and at my final gym session today it was 98.9.I made it!

Still a long way to go (my next goal is to get into something that starts with an 8 not a 9), but am very pleased to have made my target. Partly because I absolutely hate not achieving something I set out to do. I am highly competitive. But also because I obviously feel healthier.

I know I am not the only person out there who struggles with losing weight, so I figured I would share what I have done. Not in any any way putting myself out there as a role model, because I have still got a long way to go, but it is all about getting momentum.

All the experts say you need both exercise and diet, and this is absolutely right. One without the other is like riding your bike on the flat in first gear – takes a hell of a long time.

On the exercise size, I’ve had a PT on and off for some years. One key difference is that this time I made my twice weekly sessions my top priority. Previously I ended up missing or deferring heaps because I was so busy. This time I refused all meetings, all conference calls, all speaking engagements, all travel that would interfere with my sessions, unless absolutely essential. The end result was over three and a bit months, there was no week I didn’t do two sessions.

My trainer was and is Russell at City Fitness Thorndon. A great guy who pushes me past where I want to go, which is exactly what you need. Highly recommended.

I also tried to do a one hour walk most days I wasn’t at the gym. Mixed success there but most weeks I managed a couple. Will be keeping them up over summer, and also doing some of the longer scenic walks as usual.

The other element is food. I took a few steps:

• Kept a food diary of calories, fat, sugars etc to check I was not exceeding 1500 calories a day
• When out at social events, avoided the finger food (even one sausage roll is your enemy!)
• Discovered how unhealthy muesli is and swapped back to my childhood weetbix
• Pretty much gave up all alcohol except red wine. The exception being the night of the VSM party, and this weekend will also be an exception.
• Went for controlled portions, and snacked between meals on fruit (bananas, apples, grapes, strawberries) and veges (carrots) rather than meat and dairy

In terms of the controlled portions, my flatmate told me about a company which I have found great. I can do so basic cooking but generally not worth the hassle just for yourself, plus you make the portions too big, and it takes time.

Anyway for those whom time is an issue, and money less so, you may want to check out eat.co.nz, They do fresh meals and lite meals which you can order weekly and they deliver. The lite ones are 380 – 400 grams and only 300 – 400 calories. They taste great, and are much better than the frozen meals generally available in supermarkets. Again, highly recommended.

So come election night, I’m going to be pretty happy regardless of the result! Some things in life are more important than politics!

Andrea Vance blogs:

Goff hasn’t been seen in the city. Nor has he been in Palmerston North – the last provincial seat his party holds – in the past four weeks. You can’t help but wonder if the candidates are keen to keep him away – just as his mug is missing from the billboards.

After losing Napier, Otaki, Hamilton and the East and West Coast electorates, letting Palmerston North slip from the party’s grasp will be a serious psychological blow to the party.

Has Goff become the Marginal Labour candidates know the only way to hold their seats is to get National voters to vote for them. That’s why they are hiding Goff.