What to make of Venezuela

When news first broke of the US attack on Venezuela, I was perplexed as just bombing Venezuela was unlikely to overthrow Maduro, and a full invasion could be costly. I did wonder if it was part of a plan to capture Maduro, and so it was. In just 150 minutes Maduro was a prisoner of the United States, and not a single US solider was killed. From a military point of view it was an incredible operation, and one that could cause other country leaders to have a nervous night’s sleep – be it Cuba or Denmark.

Maduro rigged the last election and was an illegitimate President. His departure will be welcomed by many Venezuelans. There is already huge celebrations. He was guided by Cuban security guards as he couldn’t even trust his own people not to turn on him.

While Maduro was a bad man, does that mean the US was justified in using military force to seize him? There are many countries with bad leaders. The answer is somewhere between a possible yes and a probable no. He was under indictment from US courts on drug charges, and there was a precedent based on the invasion of Panama to seize Manuel Noriega. However Panama actually had declared war on the US, and a US marine was shot at a road block. This gave George H W Bush greater justification. Also there was broad political consensus in the US for military action. I doubt the actions in Venezuela are legal under international law, but it is no surprise Trump would not be concerned with opinions on this.

It is also worth noting that Trump sent troops in to arrest Maduro on drug smuggling charges, but a few weeks ago he pardoned Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, from his 45 year sentence for drug smuggling.

I thought that the removal of Maduro would see María Corina Machado Parisca become President – the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner and opposition leader. But Trump rather dismissively said she is a “nice woman” but not got enough support to be President of Venezuela. Maybe he is annoyed at her for winning what he saw as his peace prize. So for now VP Delcy Venezuela is the President of Venezuela.

Trump has said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will lead a team to run Venezuela, making this tweet before that announcement even funnier. For those who don’t know Rubio is the Secretary of State, Acting National Security Advisor and Acting National Archivist of the United States.

It is very unclear what will happen next. Trump is not going to do an Iraq and remove all aspects of the previous administration from power (which was a critical mistake). In fact he seems to be doing what I thought should have been done in Iraq, which is to tell the next in line to run the country but behave well or they’ll be captured also.

He has also said US oil companies will take over the running of Venezuela oil. Now their infrastructure was run down by the previous Government, which is partly when so many are now in poverty there. But Trump is saying some of the money will go to the US to reimburse them, so for once we do have a US war that was about oil! (the left thing every US war is about oil!). I am not sure how US companies can run Venezuela oil without US troops on the ground.

It is also very unclear if there will be regional fighting for power, as nature abhors a vacuum. So while the outcome of Maduro in custody with no loss of US life is a good one, it could still turn very messy.

This tweet seems to sum things up rather well!

General Debate 04 January 2026

A strange defamation ruling

Steven Price has an insightful take on the Talley vs TVNZ defamation judgment. He doesn’t say the decision is necessarily wrong, but he is very critical of the reasoning by Justice Jagose.

Price says that he expected the case to be decided on whether TVNZ had a defence of truth and/or whether it was a responsible communication in the public interest. But instead the Judge basically ruled that all but one of the stories were not defamatory at all, as in they didn’t lower the reputation of Talley’s at all.

Prince concludes:

I suspect this judgment will be appealed. One problem is that, because of the way the judge approached the case, particularly in his findings about meaning, there is no analysis of all the evidence relating to truth (or not) and responsible communication (or not) for almost all the broadcasts and articles sued over. So if my analysis above is anywhere in the ballpark, and an appeal is upheld, we’re probably looking at a new trial. Which seems very hard on both parties.

If I was Talleys, I would be appealing. That doesn’t mean they will win next time, but that the reasoning in this decision was rather poor.

Trump attacks Venezuela

The United States has launched military strikes in Venezuela. There has been no word yet on what the intent of the strikes are, and whether there will be a ground invasion.

The intent could be regime change, or to take Maduro into custody, or just to discourage the drug trade.

At this stage it appears to be more than just missiles from carriers. There are reports of numerous US planes in Venezuela air space also striking targets.

UPDATE: The BBC reports Trump saying they have Maduro and his wife in custody. Huge.

An evil mother

Few things disturb me more than a parent killing their children just to spite the other parent and stop them gaining access to them. It is such an evil malicious act.

The majority of parents who do this are men. But not universally. The Guardian reports:

An American woman accused of killing two of her children after a Colorado judge demanded she comply with a custody order has been extradited from Britain, where she was arrested, to the United States to face charges.

Kimberlee Singler was arrested in Kensington, west London, by officers from the UK’s National Crime Agency in December 2023, a week after her nine-year-old daughter and seven-year-old son were found dead in their home in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Singler’s 11-year-old daughter was injured but survived. Singler had superficial knife wounds and told police that a man had entered the apartment and attacked the family. The surviving daughter initially backed Singler’s story but eventually told an investigator that her mother said that God made her do it, according to court documents in the United Kingdom.

God had nothing to do with it. She murdered two of her own children rather than allow their father to be able to see them. She tried to frame him for the murders.

Singler, 37, fought extradition and denied attacking her children. Her London defense attorney, Edward Fitzgerald, argued that Singler should not be extradited because if convicted of first-degree murder in Colorado, she would face a mandatory sentence of life without parole – a sentence that violates European human rights law.

Life without parole is the minimum she should get.

General Debate 03 January 2026

Calling out your own side

I highly recommend this speech (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4Cig58bsr8) by Ben Shapiro to TPUSA calling out grifters such as Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens and Steve Bannon, but also their enablers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly.

He knew Carlson and Kelly were following him as speakers, but put the truth ahead of friendships.

RIP John Lee

Radio NZ reported:

An Otago businessman who founded the country’s biggest ski area is being remembered as someone who shaped his local community over many decades.

Wānaka farmer and entrepreneur John Allandale Lee died peacefully on Sunday surrounded by family,

He was seen as a key figurehead in the economic takeoff of the Cardrona Valley

Lee’s family confirmed the 89-year-old’s passing in a statement on Wednesday.

A second-generation Waiorau farmer, Lee grew up in the tough alpine clime of the Cardrona Valley’s Pisa Range.

“In the late 1960s, the population of Cardrona was in decline, and as things were looking bleak, John got creative – all with the goal of bringing life back to the valley.”

Lee and his wife, Mary bought the historic Cardrona Hotel in 1970 and Mt Cardrona Station a year later.

The couple would spend the following years developing a ski area at Cardrona.

Cardrona Alpine Resort was opened to the public in 1980 and now stands as New Zealand’s biggest ski area.

It is hard to overstate his impact for the Cardrona region. He was a visionary. I actually worked on Cardona during university holidays for a couple of years and it was arguably my best ever job. Great people and a great ski field.

General Debate 02 January 2026

Pausing a hunger strike

The Guardian reports:

Two Palestine Action-affiliated prisoners have paused their hunger strikes due to deteriorating health but have vowed to resume the protest next year.

Qesser Zuhrah and Amu Gib have temporarily resumed eating, according to a statement released by Prisoners for Palestine group on Tuesday evening.

The pair were among eight prisoners on hunger strike facing charges related to alleged break-ins or criminal damage on behalf of Palestine Action before the group was banned under terrorism legislation in July, charges they deny and have called to be dropped.

So they are “pausing” their hunger strikes until next year. I wonder how many Big Macs they can eat in the next 10 days?

In theory I have been on a 10 year hunger strike. I just pause it three times a day.

A sensible merger

The Government announced:

The Government has today confirmed the establishment of a new Ministry of Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport (MCERT), to support the Government’s ambitious reform agenda in housing, transport, urban development and the environment.

The new Ministry will bring together the Ministry for the Environment, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, the Ministry of Transport, and local government functions from the Department of Internal Affairs into one coherent new agency.

“The new agency will be at the heart of tackling some of New Zealand’s greatest economic and environmental challenges – from housing affordability, our infrastructure deficit, and adaptation to climate change,” Housing, Transport, RMA Reform and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop says.

NZ generally has far too many agencies. A reduction in the number of agencies is desirable.

Any mergers have to make sense though. Merging Treasury and MFAT would be silly (but hilarious ). This merger looks very sensible as it brings together the key elements of cities into one place – housing, transport and planning. The link between transport and housing is especially critical. You need good transport links into areas where people live, but also want to have more intense housing developments near public transport stations etc.

General Debate 01 January 2026

Own goal by Stamer

Alaa Abdel Fattah has been a prisoner in Egypt on dubious charges, and may have been tortured there. It is right and proper for the UK Government to advocate (as he gained British citizenship) for his human rights to be respected.

But Starmer did a huge own goal by going beyond that and declaring that he is delighted Alaa Abdel Fattah is in the UK and that his case has been a top priority for the Government.

Because to welcome Fattah in the same week as a huge conspiracy to kill Jews in the UK was detected was very tone deaf to put it mildly. Here is a collection of quotes from Alaa Abdel Fattah:

  • “Will no one form an armed organization and randomly assassinate (Egyptian) Interior Ministry officers and be rid of them?”
  • the 1981 assassination of then-Egyptian president Anwar Sadat was “a service to the nation,”
  • “there is a critical number of Israelis that we need to kill and then the problem is solved.”
  • yes, I consider killing any colonialists and specially zionists heroic, we need to kill more of them
  • Police are not human they don’t have rights, we should just kill them all
  • fuck that, sounds like u need more fear. random shooting of white males should convince them racism costs lives
  • I’ll switch to something else, advocting killing police, hating white people
  • I’m a racist, I don’t like white people so piss off
  • I must confess i want a drone of me own, promise to only use it to shoot zionist weddings
  • Because no medicine can reverse god’s will. he should subject his anger at good for creating those dirty homosexual.
  • described British people as “dogs and monkeys”.
  • dear zionists please don’t ever talk to me, I’m a violent person who advocated the killing of all zionists including civilians, so fuck off
  • Unfortunately, the Iranian nuclear project isn’t dedicated to wiping out the white man
  • I shoul never ever ever allow myself to read Thomas Friedman again, now all I can think of is joining Bin Laden and killing a few Americas
  • Go burn the city or downing street or hunt police u fools
  • There was no genocide against Jews by the Nazis – after all, many Jews are left
  • Is it possible for someone to assassinate Diaa Rashwan? Or if it has to be peaceful, peacefully, let’s slit his throat—the important thing is he stops talking.
  • The extermination of whites is a desirable thing
  • humanity will not be redeemed until we commit genocide against all white people
  • The Islamic Group was right; we must kill all police officers without any discrimination

Reading his history of advocating for violence and death makes you firstly think that maybe the Egyptian authorities were not being all that unreasonable in jailing him.

But the most astonishing thing is how the 100 UK celebrities all campaigned for his release treating him as a hero, and the UK PM did the same – and none of them ever thought that maybe someone should check out his tweets.

Why not leave rubbish collection to the private sector?

Radio NZ reports:

Auckland Councillors have voted not to proceed with a six-month trial of fortnightly kerbside rubbish collections in parts of the city, after considering public feedback.

The proposed trial would’ve halved the number of kerbside collections in Te Atatū, Panmure, Tāmaki, Clendon Park and Weymouth, with the intention of reducing waste to landfill.

About 5000 Aucklanders had made submissions during consultation, and 78 percent had opposed the trial.

Feedback included concerns about managing fuller bins, smells, hygiene and whether they would have enough bin space, particularly in big households.

I am not surprised that they scrapped the trial due to the backlash. Most people don’t want two weeks of rubbish hanging around their house.

But one size doesn’t fit all. I think the best solution is for the Council not to operate kerbside rubbish pickups at all. Leave it to the private sector who will offer different options and flexibility.

For example in Kapiti there is no council kerbside rubbish collection. Instead residents have a choice of six waste collectors to choose from. Operators allow you to choose from 80l to 240l wheelie bins. You can choose weekly or fortnightly pick up. You can pay monthly or annually for reduced prices. You can swap operators if unhappy with their service.

This is what Councils should do – allow choice and flexibility.

New Years Honours List 2026

The full list is here. The titular honours are:

DNZM

To be Dames Companion of the said Order:

Professor Helen Victoria Danesh-Meyer, CNZM, of Auckland. For services to ophthalmology.

Ms Coral May Shaw, of Te Awamutu. For services to public service, the judiciary and the community.

Ms Dorothy Myrtle Spotswood, of Wellington. For services to philanthropy.

KNZM

To be Knights Companion of the said Order:

Mr Scott Ronald Glyndwr Dixon, CNZM, of Indianapolis, Indiana, United States of America. For services to motorsport.

Mr Rodney Kenneth Drury, of Queenstown. For services to business, the technology industry and philanthropy.

Professor Graham Stephen Le Gros, CNZM, of Wellington. For services to medical science.

Mr Christopher Wilton Parkin, CNZM, of Wellington. For services to philanthropy and the arts.

Very pleased to see Dorothy Spotswood and Chris Parkin recognised for their incredible generosity. Likewise Rod Drury is so well deserved. He had a vision to set up an online accountancy company and it now now valued at over $22 billion, is used by 4.6 million companies and employs 4,600 staff.

Also pleased to see Richard Harman get an ONZM for services to journalism. I first met Richard when he was TVNZ Political Editor in the 1980s and 1990s. He produced TV current affairs shows for many years and still writes an invaluable daily newsletter – Politik.

Also nice to see Jack Hodder KC, Tenby Powell and Jens Mueller get ONZMs. Likewise the MNZMs to Peter Cullen and Rosemary Dixon. All good people.

Unwise virulent comments

The Herald reports:

A leading developer and land aggregator behind some of New Zealand’s biggest housing projects has launched a $2.5 million lawsuit over claims a senior council official “intentionally and maliciously” defamed him in official communications.

Defamation proceedings have been started by businessman Garry Robertsonagainst the Kaikōura District Council and senior manager of operations David Clibbery. …

In the emails, Clibbery variously calls Robertson a racist, selfish, arrogant, “complete prick”, and “consummate taker who gives nothing back”.

I’m shocked that a (local) government official would write things like this. Putting aside any defamation, it is incredibly unprofessional.

In the next email the following day, Clibbery goes further, which the statement of claim says are “defamatory and untrue statements”.

“In my view, he is prime example of what extreme wealth can turn a person into; arrogant, entitled, self-righteous, selfish, racist, hypocritical, over-confident in their abilities and to a significant degree detached from normal society, but either unable or unwilling to recognise this.”

Clibbery’s claims that Robertson is a “consummate taker” whose objective is to “drive Kaikōura property prices higher without any regard for the broader social consequences”, are defamatory, the court action alleges.

“I truly believe that Mr Robertson is a blight to this community, who we would be best without,” Clibbery ends his email with.

Is this how council officials talk about us behind our backs? Did his CEO reprimand him (or worse) for such unprofessional behaviour?

A small but good law change

Radio NZ reports:

The government is proposing to amend alcohol legislation so restaurants with on-site retail spaces can sell take-home booze.

The amendment to the Sale and Supply of Alcohol Act would mean restaurants can apply for an off-licence, if they also sell takeaway food or non-alcoholic beverages prepared by the business.

The bill was originally a National Party member’s bill lodged by Hutt South MP Chris Bishop in 2018, and then transferred to Wairarapa MP Mike Butterick in 2023 once Bishop became a minister.

The bill was pulled from the ballot in April, but has now been picked up by Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee as government legislation.

McKee said restaurants were already trusted to supply alcohol through an on-licence, and the law change would mean they can apply for permission to sell it for off-site consumption as well.

I can’t imagine anyone except the University of Otago academics will be against this law change.

General Debate 30 December 2025

Why hate speech laws help, not hinder, anti-semitism

Dane Giraud writes:

Most forms of racism depict their victims as inferior: backward, uncivilised, animalistic. Anti-semitism works differently. Jews are accused of excessive power – of secretly controlling finance, media, governments, of engineering wars, mass migration and social decay. It is a worldview obsessed with hidden influence. We are small, but highly organised and pull the strings of society.

Now consider how this belief system interprets censorship? When the state limits speech, the very act intended to protect Jews becomes evidence (in the mind of the conspiracy theorist) that we really do wield undue influence. Censorship does not defuse anti-semitism. If anything, it animates its internal logic.

I think this is very insightful.

Religious fanaticism was behind Bondi. That is not a speech problem. It is an intelligence, security and cultural problem. It requires surveillance, confronting extremist networks and cutting off funding, and actively empowering moderate voices within Muslim communities. 

I agree. Islamist terrorist attacks globally are well down from the ISIS peak in 2014, but 2025 has seen a significant increase from 2024.

Data from here.

Little support from Māori for TPM leader and deputies

Radio NZ reports on a poll of 328 Maori, which asked about Te Pati Maori. They asked who should lead TPM, and the current leaders did not come out well. They got:

  • Leader John Tamihere: 5%
  • Co-deputy leader Rawiri Waititi 12%
  • Co-deputy leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 7%

So that just 24% for the three leaders. The other MPs were:

  • Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke: 19%
  • Takuta Ferris: 11%
  • Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6%
  • Oriini Kaipara: 3%

That’s 39% for one of the four MPs who are estranged from the leadership.

General Debate 29 December 2025

Kiwiblog’s 2026 predictions

Here’s my 20 predictions for next year, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got 13.5/20 right for 2025.

  1. NZ First will get at least 10% at the election, unless Winston does a u-turn on ruling out a Hipkins-led Labour.
  2. ACT will retain both Tamaki and Epsom.
  3. The Greens will retain two out of their three electorate seats.
  4. Te Pāti Maori will retain between one and four electorate seats
  5. National, ACT and NZ First will receive more party votes than Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori, resulting in a National-led Government.
  6. The Republicans will retain the Senate but lose the House in the 2026 mid-terms
  7. Unemployment will be between 5% and 5.5% during the year
  8. Inflation will be at or below 2.5% by year end
  9. The 2026 Budget will forecast a return to (OBEGALx) surplus by 2028/29 instead of 2029/30
  10. National will win Wigram off Labour
  11. National will lose five or fewer electorates to Labour
  12. There will be a new Speaker of the House
  13. The general election will be in November 2026
  14. PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with Chris Penk promoted to Cabinet
  15. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue all year
  16. Keir Starmer will go as UK Labour Leader and PM after the May 2026 local elections
  17. If elected, Michael Wood will announce he is a candidate for NZ Labour Leader, after the election
  18. The Macrons will win their defamation suit against Candace Owens
  19. All eight parliamentary leaders (incl co-leaders) will remain until the election
  20. Labor will retain power in South Australia but lose power in Victoria

Business confidence at 30 year high

Radio NZ reports:

Business confidence has hit its highest level in 30 years on improving activity and on expectations of an economic rebound.

ANZ’s Business Outlook survey showed headline confidence rose 7 points to a net 74 percent expecting better conditions.

The more closely followed own activity outlook measure also rose 7 points to 61 percent positive, also its highest level in 30 years.

This is more good news to end 2025 on, pointing to a stronger economy in 2026.

General Debate 28 December 2025

Good for Morning Report, but not necessarily for Radio NZ

Radio NZ reports:

John Campbell is returning to RNZ, as the new co-host of Morning Report alongside Ingrid Hipkiss.

RNZ’s Chief Audio Officer Pip Keane said the field of applicants for role on the flagship news programme was impressive but Campbell stood out .

“John’s experience as a journalist and host is exceptional, but equally important is his passion for pursuing the stories that matter and our audience values this strong journalism. He’s also a highly skilled interviewer, and that’s crucial for Morning Report.”

Keane says he will be a key part of RNZ’s dedicated audio plan, which aims to grow RNZ National’s audience.

John is a very skilled broadcaster and interviewer. He is extremely well known, and could well help turn around the declining numbers for Morning Report.

But in his last job at TVNZ he wrote opinion pieces which made clear (and was no surprise to anyone) that he holds string left of centre views and has a degree of contempt for the leaders of the centre-right parties, where he referred to their “heart of darkness”. Now you can have strong views on politics, and not let it affect you as a professional broadcaster. But will this happen here? Will Campbell interview Chloe Swarbrick the same way as he would Christoper Luxon? Time will tell.