Kiwiblog’s 2026 predictions
Here’s my 20 predictions for next year, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got 13.5/20 right for 2025.
- NZ First will get at least 10% at the election, unless Winston does a u-turn on ruling out a Hipkins-led Labour.
- ACT will retain both Tamaki and Epsom.
- The Greens will retain two out of their three electorate seats.
- Te Pāti Maori will retain between one and four electorate seats
- National, ACT and NZ First will receive more party votes than Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori, resulting in a National-led Government.
- The Republicans will retain the Senate but lose the House in the 2026 mid-terms
- Unemployment will be between 5% and 5.5% during the year
- Inflation will be at or below 2.5% by year end
- The 2026 Budget will forecast a return to (OBEGALx) surplus by 2028/29 instead of 2029/30
- National will win Wigram off Labour
- National will lose five or fewer electorates to Labour
- There will be a new Speaker of the House
- The general election will be in November 2026
- PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with Chris Penk promoted to Cabinet
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue all year
- Keir Starmer will go as UK Labour Leader and PM after the May 2026 local elections
- If elected, Michael Wood will announce he is a candidate for NZ Labour Leader, after the election
- The Macrons will win their defamation suit against Candace Owens
- All eight parliamentary leaders (incl co-leaders) will remain until the election
- Labor will retain power in South Australia but lose power in Victoria