HDPA writes:

The social and economic cost to this country is higher than any of us can possibly imagine on day four. Which is why the Government needs to keep this lockdown as short as it possibly can.

To do that, it must stop the arrival of coronavirus into this country from overseas. As many as 50 infected people are arriving here each day. That’s according to Dr David Skegg, who reckons we’re trying to empty a bath with a jug while the tap’s still running. The tap is the flow of infected arrivals from overseas.

Every day that arrivals keep bringing it in is potentially another delay in lifting the lockdown. It’s heartening that the Government is now quarantining arrivals who are sick or who have no satisfactory plans to self-isolate. But that’s simply not enough.

Not everyone carrying the virus on arrival looks sick on arrival. We’re hearing stories of people only feeling sick 11 days after arriving in New Zealand. Not everyone promising to self-isolate will self-isolate. How many stories have we heard of tourists taking scenic helicopter flights and posting letters when they should be in isolation?

Over the Tasman, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has ordered a compulsory 14-day quarantine for absolutely everyone arriving there. We need to do this too.

I agree. A test and a quarantine period for every new arrival.

Despite the national health and financial emergency, most councils are still planning to hike rates this year – some up to nine or ten percent. For today’s Taxpayer Talk Louis Houlbrooke interviews Hutt City Councillor Chris Milne & Christchurch City Councillor Sam MacDonald on their response to the Taxpayers’ Union campaign calling for a nationwide rates freeze and ways councils can save money.

You can support the campaign calling for a naitonwide rates freeze at www.ratesfreeze.nz. The dashboard referred to in the podcast is available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/rates_dashboard

You can subscribe to Taxpayer Talk via Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and all good podcast apps.

Yesterday the PM said:

Test, test, test –  that’s the message from Prime Minister Ardern as the Government continues its effort to eradicate Covid-19. 

The Government has broadened guidelines around Covid-19 testing, which will allow for more people to be tested and to see how far the disease has spread in New Zealand. 

There had been complaints that some people presenting symptoms had not been tested because they had no connection to overseas travel.  

“I would keep encouraging that we test, test, test,” Ardern said.

It has been obvious for weeks the guidelines for testing were too tight. There have been multiple stories of people who were refused tests who later turned out to have Covid-19.

So why didn’t we test test test from the beginning? Well on 15 March the PM said:

Also on the show, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said testing at the border would not be effective. 

“Tests can produce false negatives, my concern would be putting all that resource into testing when it may not be accurate, then it might create a false sense of security that people who need to self isolate wouldn’t.

The PM is an excellent communicator, but I do wish media would take some time to look at the substance, and that in fact the substantive message keeps changing.

Stuff reports:

Ministers are rushing to prevent the country’s construction sector hollowing out under coronavirus lockdown. 

However, they’ve also admitted the state’s role in construction will massively expand in a way unheard of in several generations. That could include turning Crown Infrastructure Partners into a new Ministry of Works-style government department.

Oh God, could you imagine it.

It would be like the Kiwibuild of the construction sector. Claim you’ll build 100,000 affordable homes and deliver 361.

Steven Joyce writes:

There are roughly three health scenarios at the end of four weeks. Things are much better, much worse, or inconclusive. If it’s getting worse we won’t be going anywhere. Much better is the dream scenario, but the most likely seems the inconclusive one. In that eventuality we can’t just roll the lockdown on as is – it will be too costly. We need to somehow get some economic blood flowing, and that will require some inventive thinking.

For example, will it be possible to partially reverse the shutdown, while maintaining social distancing to acceptable limits? We could start by widening the definition of essential businesses (adding butchers, fruit stores,  hairdressers, and hardware stores say); give all exporters the ability to operate like the food companies; and open up online commerce at least for retailers. We are now one of the most wired countries in the world, so lets take advantage of that. By then families will be needing to buy things like winter clothes for the kids.

Even those limited moves would get some money back flowing. Once we have full confidence in our testing and contact tracing system we could go further.

This seems the right path to me. Allow more businesses to operate but require everyone to have social distancing in them.

We should start planning now what a safe border looks like in a Covid 19 world. What about testing everyone that arrives in New Zealand as standard practice, and placing those that fail the test into quarantine? It is a big logistical challenge but surely we are up for it.

It’s incredible that even today we’re still not testing all arrivals.

There will be masses of job losses due to COVID-19. Before today it would have been unfair to blame that on the Government.

But from today, the Government is to blame for at least some of them. Because they have refused to suspend the increase in the minimum wage that came into force today.

Look of course you can increase the minimum wage with modest impacts when the economy is booming. If businesses are expanding, then all good.

But we are in the opposite of that. The vast majority of businesses have had a huge collapse in income, ranging from 30% to 100%. Entire sectors of the economy have closed down.

The increase in the minimum wage means that those employers with staff on the minimum wage will beyond doubt lay off more of them. And worse, it means that when firms finally can start hiring again, it will be more expensive to expand.

And it isn’t as if our current minimum wage was low. It was in fact one of the highest in the OECD relative to the median or average wage.

In 2018 it was 61% of the median wage. Here’s some others:

1. New Zealand 61%
2. UK 54%
3. Australia 54%
4. Canada 51%
5. Ireland 48%
6. US 33%

So this move will see large numbers of workers go from an income of around $750 a week to the unemployment benefit of $245 a week. And they will probably remain unemployed for years not months.

The Government announced this morning that as there was so much confusion about how far from home people could travel to exercise, it has passed an Order-in-Council to provide certainty.

The following are the maximum distances you can now travel from your home, without being deemed in breach of the Level 4 restrictions.

• In cities: 500 metres
• In towns: 750 metres
• In rural areas: 1 km

Exceptions still apply for travel to supermarkets and pharmacies.

To ensure high levels of compliance, so that COVID-19 is contained, the Government has authorised the Police to track people’s locations through their cellphones. This is already occurring in a number of other countries such as Israel.

MBIE hopes to have an alert system rolled over within 48 hours so that anyone who is further away from their home than the permitted distance receives a warning that they may be in breach of the law.

Two issues I have been campaigning on have been changing the law forcing supermarkets to close over Easter and the fact the Government was onl allowing daily media to operate.

The PM has just announced decisions on both issues, and they’re both partial victories. Good to see the Government willing to amend decisions that are wrong.

Supermarkets are now allowed to open on Easter Sunday (but not Good Friday) this year. They will use Good Friday to restock. A reasonable compromise.

And the definition of essential media is expanded to allow non daily newspapers that reach hard to contact communities, which will allow many community newspapers to stay open, and ethnic newspapers etc.

No back down on the idiotic minimum wage increase coming into force tomorrow, but they had already ruled that out a week ago.

Cameron Bagrie writes:

Net government debt looks to be headed well above 50 per cent of GDP and is on an unsustainable path.  

A lot of other countries are in a worse predicament, but they don’t carry the same level of private sector debt. 

The best way to turn an unsustainable debt trajectory into a sustainable one, and restore the Government’s war chest for the nest rainy day, is by improving New Zealand’s economic performance.   That is going to require an extensive economic shake-up not tinkering. 

I don’t think people realise how dire the situation will be.

Let’s say we spend $50 billion just on the crisis period.

Now let’s look at last year’s accounts. Tax revenue of $87 billion. Let’s say tax revenues are down 15% or $13 billion. So income down $13 billion and the interest in the extra debt is likely to be $3 billion so even once this is over, may have a $16 billion structural deficit. Oh also add an extra $2.5 billion in unemployment benefits and you’re getting close to $20 billion.

Now if you run deficits of over $10 billion for say five years or more, then bang another $50 billion debt and so on.

A massive fiscal repair job is going to be required down the track. 

Don’t use Covid-19 as an opportunity to pursue a political spending agenda. Beyond improving our health capability and border controls, now is not the time to be cementing more money in government spending baselines that will prove difficult to extract and unwind when needed.  Tough times demand tough decisions.

This is essential. Any extra spending beyond those two areas must be temporary. Locking in permanent spending increases will cripple our ability to recover.

Low quality ineffectual spending such as the free tertiary fees (which saw numbers actually drop) must be reviewed also. That money can do better in Vote Health.

The Herald reports:

A legal challenge by firearms owners to the Government’s military-style semi-automatic weapons ban claiming New Zealanders have the right to bear arms under the Treaty of Waitangi was “doomed to fail”, the Court of Appeal has ruled.

Unless guns are a taonga, no surprise!

The so-called constitutional right to bear arms, the Kiwi Party argued, had derived from ancient custom, which evolved into a common law right and was affirmed by the Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights 1688 and the Treaty of Waitangi.

The Magna Carta deals with the following:

• Freedom for the English Church
• Heirs should inherit land
• Widows don’t have to marry
• Money lent from Jews doesn’t need to be repaid by heirs
• London shall be free
• Lawsuits to be heard in a fixed place
• Royal family to stop stealing wood

And a bit more like that, but nothing about guns.

He said New Zealanders need to be able to exercise their “constitutional right” to access semi-automatic weapons and large capacity magazines to be able to effectively defend themselves against any unlawful use of arms by agents of the Crown or Executive.

In particular, he argued New Zealanders need access to semi-automatic weapons in order to match police fire power should the cops resort to unlawful use of firearms against New Zealand citizens. 

Not surprised that argument didn’t fly.

Luke Malpass writes at Stuff:

The biggest problem to date has been the mixed messages from the Government on the one hand, and the cops on the other. The Prime Minister initially seemed to be of the view that as long as you stayed within your “bubble” and away from other people, you were more or less ok and could move around a bit.

The cops, however, are clearly of the view that you should be staying at home.

And it seems you can now get arrested just for being out in public (walking or in your car) even if you are nowhere near anyone else.

There should be no misunderstanding this: it is a 24-hour, 7-day-a-week curfew for the nation. If you are on the way to the supermarket, or the local park (but not playground) and are stopped by police, you had better have a good reason.

The focus should be on not getting within two metres of anyone else rather than silly debates about whether you can drive two minutes to the beach or have to walk there etc.

Some people in Khandallah are walking up Mt Kaukau as great exercise. But if you live in Ngaio and do it, you might be arrested!

The Government announced:

New Zealand will temporarily remove tariffs on all medical and hygiene imports needed for the COVID-19 response.

Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said today that the New Zealand Customs Service will apply tariff concessions to all diagnostic reagents and testing kits used for COVID-19 testing and soap imports in the first instance.

Officials are in the process of identifying other medical and hygiene products needed for the COVID-19 response, and further tariff concessions will follow shortly.

“There is increased global demand for these medical and hygiene products and some countries are restricting their exports of them. We want to make sure that New Zealand has the most straightforward and cost effective access possible to the supply of the goods needed to respond to COVID-19,” Kris Faafoi said.

Totally in favour of this, but why put the tariffs back on in a few months? Do we really want to increase the cost of medical and hygiene products used by New Zealanders?

Bill English spoke to Jarden on the COVID-19 crisis. I’m summarising it here as I think it is such a quality analysis it needs a wider audience.

Some key points are:

• Government needs a feedback loop so it can adjust policies that are not working
• Kiwis arriving home still a major risk due to lack of screening
• Caregivers working for people in care at home need protective gear
• Need an exit strategy for the lockdown. Medical experts have said might be needed for 12 – 13 weeks.
• Risk management is important – some risk has been transferred from private sector to Crown’s balance sheet.
• Unwise to assume central banks can control the global debt market for long
• This crisis will change the economy permanently – won’t just return to normal in a few months or even years
• Governing parties benefit in a crisis as they have saturated media coverage.
• This is not a financial markets crisis so can’t be served by financial markets intervention. This is a “real economy” crisis.
• No corporate big or small is safe when revenues drop 30%
• Government will need to rebuild business confidence which may mean having to do things that don’t sit well with their core beliefs
• Government should have to peel back some regulations as the regulations are a “nice to have” vs economic survival
• Infrastructure spending is needed but Kiwibuild shows Government struggles with execution. Also lack of inwards migration may make it difficult to step up.

Great to see someone thinking beyond the next few weeks.

Under the current law every supermarket in New Zealand has to close on Friday 10 April and Sunday 12 April.

As the only significant source of food open in New Zealand, it would be moronic to force them to close. It would also creates even larger queues for supermarkets on the days after. We already have reports of 400 metre long queues to get into supermarkets.

The Government should use it powers to temporarily amend the Shop Trading Hours Act to allow supermarkets to open on 10 and 12 April, should they wish to. They could even stick in a provision stating no one can be forced to work those days.

There is no logical reason not to amend the law. The normal arguments in favour of no trading of those two days do not apply at the moment. They tend to be:

• We need one long weekend off where families can spent time together. As families are spending 28 days together in a forced lockdown, this argument is insane.
• We should not allow trading, so people can go to church on those days. Well the churches are closed.
• People need a day off shopping. This is not about discretionary shopping. This is about being able to get nappies and food etc. There are no cafes open, no takeaways, no deliveries. They are the only source of food at the moment.
• Workers need a day off. We now have probably over 100,000 people unemployed and desperate for work and to earn money as household incomes are dropping.

Let’s not turn 400 metre queues at supermarkets into 800 metres queues. The Government should do the sane thing and amend the Shop Trading Hours Act for as long as we are in Level 4 lockdown.

UPDATE: The PM has said Ministers are considering this issue

Stuff reports:

Inside Rahimi Ahmad’s home no-one in the family of four speaks about the man responsible for turning their life upside down.

Just over one year ago Ahmad and his then 11-year-old son Ahmad Razif were inside the Masjid An-nur (Al Noor) for Friday prayers when a 28-year-old Australian man opened fire.

Shortly after the gunfire began Ahmad Razif ran off and disappeared from his father’s sight as the men at the back of the prayer line screamed and shouted for everyone to run from the shooter. …

“I know that the bullet penetrate to my body from right side. I pray I have to survive to see my son.”

Facing the floor Ahmad tried desperately not to lose consciousness, his mind concentrating on his son.

A terrible ordeal – both physically, plus the anguish of concern for his son.

He still struggles with pain, with fragments of the bullet still lodged inside his body. He’s been told the nerve will take years to recover and the shrapnel in his body will take years to be covered by tissue.

He takes about five different types of medication to ease the pain which can make him drowsy. He has physio three times a week, but can still not move his right leg, needing a splint and crutches for walking. For long distances he uses a wheelchair.

“I still cannot spend quality time with my family as I [am] always in pain, I don’t know how many years it will take to get back walking.” …

Their son remains “mentally traumatised”, finding it difficult to get to sleep. He meets with a psychologist once a week.

Ahmad says he has already forgiven the unnamed man and prays he will be a “good and better guy later”.

Such forgiveness is inspiring. I know I wouldn’t be capable of forgiveness in this situation, but deep faith can lead some people to be able to do so and I admire them for it.

Stuff reports:

A respiratory advocacy group says it is outraged the Government could apparently allow a tobacco factory to continue operating during the coronavirus lockdown. 

The Asthma and Respiratory Foundation is calling for the supposed decision to allow Imperial Tobacco’s factory in Petone, Lower Hutt to remain open to be reversed immediately.

Imperial spokeswoman Louise Evans McDonald told Stuff on Thursday the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment (MBIE) had approved the factory’s operation through the lockdown.

It does seem unusual but worth thinking about what happens if there is a shortage of tobacco for those addicted to smoking.

We’ve already seen the tax increases leading to a huge spike in burglaries and black market activity. I’d say a shortage of legal product would be like that but on steroids.

Also a 28 day stay at home lockdown is stressful enough, without addicts being unable to satisfy their cravings.

So the decision does actually make some sense.

Massey University senior lecturer Steve Elers writes:

I’m not a lawyer or legal expert, but what I do know is that your rights to freedom of movement and assembly have been impinged by an incompetent Government that has put tens of thousands of lives at risk.

Sorry, I’m not buying into the “we must support our Government in times of crisis” myth. On the contrary, every single decision needs to be questioned and challenged if necessary – now more than ever.

So why is our Government incompetent? Let’s start with the obvious. On February 3 the Government implemented “temporary entry restrictions into New Zealand on all foreign nationals travelling from, or transiting through mainland China to assist with the containment of the novel coronavirus and to protect New Zealand and the Pacific Islands from the disease”.

This was the time for a blanket ban on all entries except for New Zealanders, who should have been tested for coronavirus on arrival and then quarantined – not isolated – until clearance was given from the lab.

I agree we should have implemented wider travel restrictions much earlier. The Government wasted weeks with its nonsensical self-quarantine idea.

Instead, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern left the gates wide open and made one shocking decision after another.

An example is the health checks, including temperature checks, our PM ordered for all travellers flying to the Pacific Islands – police and Customs were on hand to assist. However, at the same time, visitors to New Zealand could continue to just waltz on through – the PM did not order health checks on arrivals, none whatsoever. Perhaps Ardern momentarily thought she was the prime minister of the Pacific Islands and not New Zealand?

This one was bizarre. We still are not testing the thousands of people arriving. At a minimum we should have thermal scanners and temperature checks at every airport, plus compulsory testing.

Yes, our Government’s approach has been reactive – no-one can deny it based on its approach to date. We had a head start to stop this disease from entering our country, but our Government thought it would deal with it by reacting to this disease once it arrived. By doing so, it has put tens of thousands of lives at risk. Can you see how that’s not a good plan?

Yep the Government kept saying we don’t want to put measures in too early, that we don’t want to get ahead of the curve. The strategy was flatten the curve rather than suppression. It was only as criticism mounted that they swapped from a mitigation strategy to a suppression strategy.

The Government announced:

• The current focus for government and all New Zealanders must be on minimising the movement of people to stop the transmission of Covid-19
• In relation to news and media this applies both to the movement of staff of media organisations and their supply and distribution lines
• The focus for news and media as an essential service has to be on the provision of timely news and current affairs
• Daily newspapers are currently included in the definition and are expected to take strong measures to ensure safety of staff and the public; combined with their digital reach, they remain essential at this stage for the timely dissemination of news to the majority of New Zealanders
• Printed periodical and non-daily publications are not considered essential under the news and media designation
• This assessment is based on the requirement to minimise the movement of people, reduce the potential for transmission via delivery of physical objects, and reduce strain on supply and delivery industries that may be expected to play a significant role in supporting other essential services (eg, health and food supply)

This is a terrible decision.

The media pay an essential role in society, and this extends beyond the daily media. Some of the best investigative reporting can be done by non daily media.

The role of the media is not just to disseminate news. It is to hold the Government to account. It is to scrutinise. And while daily media do this also, they are sometimes so caught up in the day to day, you need non daily media also.

If the media companies affected had any fortitude they’d take this to court for judicial review. I do not believe any court would find such a narrow definition of media as an essential service to be acceptable.

The Herald reports:

Just hours before New Zealand’s four-week coronavirus lockdown, a woman was seen allegedly stuffing her bag with groceries from Fresh Choice in Ōtāhuhu on Wednesday.

In footage obtained by the Herald, staff members were seen confronting the woman before the altercation turned physical.

While she was confronted, the woman, who was wearing a mask, can be heard shouting: “Get out of my way … you’re not allowed to. You’re not allowed to touch me and you’re not even allowed that close, bro. You cant touch me bro.”

A staff member requested the woman open her handbag before a tug-of-war broke out where both the woman and two staff members wrestled over the bag.

“Show me! Open your bag,” the Fresh Choice worker was heard saying before the alleged shoplifter shouted: “Get your hand off my bag. It’s got my f**king wallet in it. Excuse me, get the f**k out my bag.”

During the altercation, a block of cheese fell out of the woman’s bag.

A Fresh Choice worker then demanded the woman to take items of meat out of her bag.

During the incident an employee wearing a hi-vis vest helped block the woman from leaving the store and assisted in trying to wrestle the bag off her.

The alleged shoplifter was seen climbing over boxes of fizzy drink in a bid to leave the store.

Staff members then blocked her again and demanded she empty her bag.

The woman attempted dash for the door, only to find it had been locked. She then shouted “don’t touch me” before the door was opened. She then ran away.

So she not only was a shoplifter (thief), she also physically resisted emptying her bag, and fled the scene of the crime.

And what did the Police do?

“Police located the woman a short time later. The stolen items were located and returned to the store.

“The woman was arrested and received a warning for shoplifting.”

Incredible.