By John Stringer

6:2. So this week we waited to learn if Jon Snow was really dead…and waited to see if he was really alive. The Red Witch (star of the final scene of 6:1 – no spoiler; go watch that) tries to revive his very dead corpse but failed. But watch the Dire Wolf’s eyes under the table. Red Witch is disillusioned; her gods have failed her with false visions (or have they?)  “F**K em all then!” (Lord Davos).

Below: Jon Snow; Daenrys Targaryen (true heir to the Iron Throne); the Dwarf Tyrion Lannister (everyone’s favourtite)
Review: GoT 6:2 (The Dwarf gets his dragon-on) | coNZervative

[Spoiler] Meanwhile Ramsay’s adopted dad has had a son (his first true born) and second heir which to Ramsay the Bastard means only one thing; Adopted-Daddy-o needs a knife in the nethers and Ramsay of course doesn’t hesitate. He also dispatches his new brother and his wet nurse to a rather grisly nasty end – Ramsay is being set up as a nastier bit of work than Joffrey Baratheon/Lannister.  Oh come back Theon and wreck your terrible ‘Reek’ vengeance!
[Actually the ‘wet nurse’ is Lord Bolton’s wife and Ramsay’s step-mum (Ramsay is really a ‘Snow’); but this seems unlikely in the episode: Bolton simply chose this woman as her father offered a dowry of her weight in gold – so Lord Bolton took her: she seems like the baby’s wet nurse to me in this episode].
[Spoiler] Meanwhile in the Iron Islands another father and House lord is despatched in this game of epic musical thrones. Balon Greyjoy as the Lord of House Greyjoy of Pyke – not to be confused with Lord Walder Frey who is Lord of the Crossing and mastermined the infamous Red Wedding (referred to in Obama’s White House Correspondent’s dinner) they both have long straggly white hair – goes out on a swing bridge in a storm. That can mean only one thing in GoT!
Funnily enough I was watching an episode of MythBusters just before in which Jamie (not Lannister) and the beret Walrus build a 100 foot long rope bridge out of duct tape and attempt to cross it.

Balon walks out on to the rope bridge in the rain and dark only to meet his brother and a show down. Without a spoiler let’s just say the rightful heir Theon (‘Reek’)  Greyjoy now has some room to move and a kingdom to inherit and sort out (now there is some vengeance that could sort the psycho Ramsay!)  Who else? That showdown is VERY personal. This may help kinda (flowcharts are necessary when watching GoT)…

Review: GoT 6:2 (The Dwarf gets his dragon-on) | coNZervative

Tyrion and Varys are still setting about re-establishing order in ‘Dragon town’ since Daenrys flew away.  Tyrion does something incredibly brave but foresightful: he goes in to the dark dungeon where the dragons are chained and tells them a wee story and unchains them (how come my trailer chain and ‘D’ ring is never that easy to unshackle? Even with Dragon drool all over it?).
Tyrion sets them free so they can fly out and ‘forage’ (ie burn up insignificant rural hamlets like Bulls and eat their BBq-ed people and -well- bulls). In doing so Tyrion is now ‘Friend of the dragons’ and maybe setting himself up as a consort to Daenrys? OR are we seeing a  transfer of power from Daenrys to Tyrion and Daenrys will end up Dothraki horse-shag?  Interesting. You read it here first! You can never underestimate the Dwarf!
The Wildings take the Wall back. (“The Wildings” as flogged from Tolkien’s Dunlendings or Wildmen of Dunland also wrapped in fur skins as the Dothraki are pinched as the Roharrim but with a cross-breeding of Southron Haradrim). It’s not epic-fantasy without generous helpings of Prof Tolk.)  There’s a great scene where a BlackWatchman shoots one of the Frost Giants in the neck with a crossbow bolt and gets “splatched” against a concrete bulwark and tossed across the snow leaving a crimson ribbon like the line of a red marker.
There’s another similar scene where Cersei’s Giant Knight bashes the head of a disrespectful village man against a brick wall while he’s relieving himself: quick efficient and bloody and a taste of the efficient desptaching of all Cersei’s enemies by this hulking Hulk Hogan in armour known as “The Mountain.”

I’ve always found the men of the Black Watch a bunch of wimps so an all round massacre by the bearded WWF Norseman in pelts would not be remiss. But effectively they are now a combined fighting host of the North and can meet the hordes of Dothraki migrating West; under Jon Snow if he ever resurrects perhaps joinde by House Stark and Theon Greyjoy etc.

Arya Stark is accepted as Girl with No Name among the Faceless Gods Helter Skelter cult but I’m sure is still Arya Stark inside (maybe she’ll even find Needle again and do some more family dynasty utu-ing). Speaking of which two Kiwis star in this series: Keisha Castle-Hughes in Dorne and Joe Naufaahu (runs an Auckland gym) amongst the Dothraki. Once Were Warriors!

Some backstory to Hodor arrives via a vision of the past while Bran Stark and Co (kind of Hobbits on a walk about) are wrapped in to that weird memory tree. Tree huggers with the Three-eyed Raven played by the famous Max von Sydow (who usually plays a WWII German General). This is cool; a kind of future and past wandering Internet service where they can see the past and future and make decisions for the present.  Bran played by Issac H-Wright has had an adolescent growth spurt and is now a young man; he was a small child in Season 5. Bran is still crippled but how will Hodor carry him about on his back now? Might look a bit gay (the actor who plays Hodor actually announced he was gay; who cares?). When Bran is eventually united with Sansa and Arya Stark (a holy Trinity?) as the House Stark they’ll be like super-powered X-Men or Mighty Morphing Power Rangers.

Cersei Lannister is recovering from her Walk of Shame and Inquisition but faces down the Red Keep guard with her Giant house gimp with the bruised face (who is this person? Is it the Hound returned?). Cersei is reconciled to her soft insignificant ‘king’ son the ring-in Joffrey Baratheon/Lannister II (I can’t even remember his name. He’s like some guy from Spot On). But the script appears to set him and Cersei Lannister up as a despicable Mum + Son vengeance troupe ala Alexander the Great and Olympias or Nero and Agrippina-the-Younger.

Episode 6:2 pretty much a forward development of all the story strands: but the end of two lines: 1) House Bolton (Father and second heir first-born after dastardly deeds done dirt cheap by the bastard Ramsay) and 2) the brother-cide of Balon Greyjoy setting up a murderous uncle for ‘Reek’ to go and sort out (to Sansa Stark – “Can I borrow one of the horses?“).

So House Bolton destroys Stennis Baratheon’s pretensions (and his army) only to disintegrate internally via Court regicide? Awesome! Go the Bastards!

Prediction: Theon will obviously return to the Iron Islands; unite that empire with Winterfell and the other people of the North around Jon Snow and House Stark for the epic showdown with Daenerys and Tyrion et al that – like Winter – you can tell is coming! With bells on – or maybe fox pelts.

 

 

 

Richard Harman writes on Politik:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has simply dismissed claims that some of the economic modelling on the TPP contained a basic arithmetical error.

The report back to Parliament yesterday of the Select Committee considering the TPP does not show any substantial reasoning behind the Ministry’s conclusion.

The error was allegedly contained with the modelling of the economic cost of extending the copyright term on recorded music from 50 to 70 years.

The Ministry’s National Interest Assessment claimed this would cost New Zealand consumers $55 million.

In fact, said an internationally recognised copyright lawyer and economist, Dr George Barker, Director of the Centre for Law and Economics from Australia National University the total cost to New Zealand of the copyright extension term was more likely to be around $250,000.

In his evidence to the committee, Dr Barker said Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment officials who did the calculations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had simply guessed how much the cost to New Zealand of extending the copyright term on film and television would be by assuming it would be exactly total figure as for recorded music.

“But, he said when they did that they  did not realise  that  the original calculation supplied by an Australian consultant had seriously  overestimated   the costs for music  by more than 40 times

“The Government officials may have inflated the already overestimated   annual cost of term extension by around  $49 million,” he said.

I don’t like the increase in copyright term in TPP. I disagree with Dr Barker on most copyright issues. However I suspect he is right on the issue of the estimate that the cost of extending the term of copyright from life plus 50 years to life plus 70 years would be $55 million a year.

That figure fails the common sense test.

Think about what that change means over the next 20 years? It means that works created by artists who died between 1945 and 1965 now won’t come out of copyright for another 20 years.

Now I can’t imagine that NZers consume $55 million a year of works by people who died between 50 and 70 years ago. 99.9% of what I watch and listen to is far more recent than that.

So the MBIE figure of $55 million a year fails the common sense test. Unless they can provide the detailed calculations they used to calculate it, the estimate is very suspect.

Ironically the thrust of Dr Barker’s evidence is to make the TPP more attractive to New Zealand since it would lower the estimated cost to consumers of the extension of the copyright term.

This is the irony. The Government has seemingly over-estimated the costs to NZ of the TPP.

DW reports:

Talks in Stuttgart have finalized Germany’s first Greens-Christian Democrats regional government. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives will be junior partners in Baden-Württemberg’s coalition.

The Green party state premier for Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann, and Merkel’s conservative stalwart Thomas Strobl said their seven weeks of talks resulted in a deal, adding that they would present their cabinet on Monday.

Ministers were not named on Sunday, but they said it would comprise five Greens and five conservative Christian Democrats (CDU). The line-up will be finalized by May 12, when Kretschmann is due to be inaugurated in the Stuttgart assembly.

Hard to imagine this happening in NZ, not while the Greens have a policy that they will only ever support Labour.

Nikki Kaye announced:

ACC Minister Nikki Kaye has welcomed the results of a Research New Zealand survey which shows that public trust and confidence in ACC has reached a new high.

“The survey shows that 61 per cent of New Zealanders surveyed in the 12 months to March 2016 have full trust and confidence in ACC, up from 56 per cent in the previous 12 months, and the result for the last quarter is 64 per cent, which is the highest result since the survey began in 2004,” says Ms Kaye.

ACC used to be in the news a lot for the wrong reasons. It hasn’t been for some time. And levies are dropping and the scheme is now fully funded.

A guest post by Rees Ward:

One hundred years ago, our export trade revolved around packing up sheep carcasses or their wool into a ship and waiting two months before they got to market. Today, some of our best export earners can weigh nothing and are delivered in fractions of a second.

New Zealand’s economy is transforming as the new service driven economy is broadening our export base beyond our traditional agricultural exports.

I have recently returned from working for the New Zealand Consulate General based in Los Angeles. Much of my work there involved supporting New Zealand firms, who were engaging with the rapidly growing tech sector Silicon Valley and across the wider Western USA economy.

California is growing jobs fast on the back of the tech sector – and this is creating additional demand for the supporting professions that drive business growth. These well paid jobs are available to those with the skills and the education to be part of that economy.

It is acknowledged that Silicon Valley emerged from the leadership and innovation of Stanford University. That has evolved to create an eco-system of venture capital, research and innovation. Silicon Valley has nearly a third of private sector workers in the tech sector firms. These are some of the wealthiest and best paid people in the United States. American firms are now fighting to get their hands on a tech capable workforce.

The New Zealand tech sector is also growing fast and has its heart in our own “Silicon Harbour” – the Wellington region. Firms like Xero, Weta Digital, Datacom and Trade Me are based here. They are joined by other yet-to-be household names such as Wipster, Fronde, Aurora 44, PledgeMe, Intergen and 8i who are creating good jobs and strong export revenues.

To support the development of the “Silicon Harbour”, the Wellington City Council opened a tech hub and collaboration space in November, to support this growth. This is part of developing connections which nurture the next generation of IT firms.

But what one of our fastest growing sectors is calling out for most, is more talent. Further the demand is just not for “geeks and nerds” – but the soft skills able to integrate technology solutions into the business environment. To become part of the new economy – and to get a better paying job – retraining to acquire new skills might be required.

The Government announced in October that it is backing a new collaboration between Victoria University, Wellington Institute of Technology and Whitireia to develop a post graduate school for ICT. This idea was too exciting opportunity for me not to sign up.  The Wellington ICT Graduate School deliver five Masters degree programmes in 2016. The courses have been designed to bring a diverse range of skilled and talented people into the ICT industry.

For most mid-career people, the thought of returning to University to complete a “new” undergraduate education is not only impractical, it is impossible. The solution has been to develop one year post-graduate “conversion” Masters degrees. A background as a teacher or a social worker could be a bonus rather than a barrier.

ICT firms are actively engaged in the education process at the School. Some learning will take place through internship, mentorship and entrepreneurial programmes as well as project work and placements in the workplace. This brings the education closer to what firms need today, rather than what the textbook printed last year says. Founder of Green Button, Scott Houston has bought his considerable mana to the board and bought a strong focus on creating a talent generator that will fuel the growth of our ICT industry.

Our economy will be increasingly reliant on our Silicon Harbour as a route to the global economy. The Wellington ICT Graduate School will soon start developing new leadership. For firms wanting to bring on that talent, we are open for business.

Rees Ward is the Director of the Wellington ICT Graduate School. https://wellingtonict.ac.nz/

Simon Bridges announced:

Transport Minister Simon Bridges today announced an ambitious and wide ranging package of measures to increase the uptake of electric vehicles in New Zealand.

“It’s clear that electric vehicles are the future. A move from petrol and diesel to low emission transport is a natural evolution, and it is our aim to encourage that switch sooner, rather than later,” Mr Bridges says.

“The benefits of increasing uptake of electric vehicles are far-reaching. They’re cheaper to run than petrol or diesel vehicles, they’re powered by our abundant renewable electricity supply, and they’ll reduce the amount of emissions that come from the country’s vehicle fleet.”

I think electric cars are part of the future. The speed of change though is something that will be predominantly decided by price and technology. Paying huge subsidies to purchase electric cars is very wasteful spending (which the Greens advocate).  So long as we have an ETS which imposes a price on CO2 emissions, then you don’t need Government subsidies.

On the specific measures:

• Extending the Road User Charges exemption on light electric vehicles until they make up two percent of the light vehicle fleet
• A new Road User Charges exemption for heavy electric vehicles until they make up two percent of the heavy vehicle fleet

I’m okay with these as they are temporary (and minor). I’m pleased they’ll stop once there are a significant number of electric vehicles.

• Allowing electric vehicles in bus lanes and high-occupancy vehicle lanes on the State Highway network and local roads

Quite a smart way to give people an incentive to go electric as it doesn’t cost taxpayers or ratepayers anything.  Might lead to some road rage though!

On average, charging an electric vehicle at home is equivalent to buying petrol at 30 cents a litre, compared to petrol which is around $2 a litre.”

So if you drive 15,000 kms a year then you use around 1,500 litres of fuel which for petrol is around $3,000 and the electric cost is around $450. That has to be weighed up against the purchase price differential.

The Greens want an $8,000 tax break for electric cars:

“The Green Party would exempt electric vehicles from fringe benefit tax, a move that would cut at least $8,000 off a $40,000 electric vehicle.

This would have a massive cost. With no FBT on electric cars, hundred of thousands of people would have their employment packages redone so they get a car as part of it.

Every sole trader will get their business to buy a car for them, claim the car off tax and not have to pay FBT on personal use of the car.

The Greens policy would cost several hundred million dollars a year I’d say.

Stuff reports:

Labour leader Andrew Little has been given a week to retract and apologise for his comments that a Niue resort tender process “stunk to high heaven” or face defamation proceedings.

Last month Little called on the Auditor-General to investigate Scenic Hotel Group being awarded a management contract at the Matavai Resort.

Calling on the Auditor-General to investigate was fine. In fact I’ve said they should investigate also.

But his comments that the tender “stunk to high heaven” were very unwise, and if it does go to court he could face a real problem.

The tests for defamation include:

• Did the statement harm the reputation of the person?
• Is it true?
• Is there malice?
• Is there qualified or absolute privilege?

It seems to be there is no doubt it harmed the reputation of the Hagamans. And I doubt there is any evidence at all that it is true that there was any wrongdoing or improper influence (unless you believe the father of a Labour MP is part of a conspiracy to raise money for National). So it may come down to qualified privilege and fair opinion.

What would be fascinating if it goes to trial, if if the trustees would be asked to testify, and to hear the testimony of Ross Ardern as to the statement by Little that the process of the board he appoints “stunk to high heaven”

Stuff reports:

The Waitangi Tribunal have ruled the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement has not breached Treaty obligations.

However, the report raised a number of concerns, such as misjudging Maori interests and a lack of transparency on Maori advice.

New Zealand is one of 12 countries party to the free trade deal, which the Government claims will benefit the country by $2.7 billion a year by 2030.

The Treaty of Waitangi clause in the agreement should “provide a reasonable degree of protection to Maori interests”, the Tribunal said.

This is no surprise. Sadly it won’t change the rhetoric of those opposed.

Charles Finny pointed out in February that NZ was the only country that got explicit mention of indigenous rights and protection of the Treaty of Waitangi.

10 questions that no one wants the answer to, but the media will devote more time and attention to than The Budget:

1. Did Jordan ever love Fleur?
2. Is Jordan just an actor?
3. Naz said on radio she slept with Jordan, but to her ex that she did not. Will the Auditor-General investigate which version is correct?
4. Will Naz and Crystal form a club?
5. Will Naz and Jordan get together?
6. Will Naz be the next Bachelorette?
7. Will there be a third season?
8. Are all the girlswho missed out breathing a sigh of relief?
9. Will Naz have to choose between the two Jordans?
10. Does anyone care?

The Herald reports:

Rampant speculators are cashing in big on Auckland’s property market, with one house sold five times in just nine months.

The humble three-bedroom home in Papakura was repeatedly flipped between February and November last year, its price spiralling from $335,000 to $590,000 – a capital gain of $870 a day.

Two of the transactions were settled on the same day, giving the seller an instant $80,000 profit without ever taking possession.

“This is frenzied activity,” Labour’s housing spokesman, Phil Twyford, told theWeekend Herald. “These people are making massive tax-free gains at the expense of ‘Generation Rent’.”

Last August National introduced a law change so that a property (except your main one) sold within two years of purchase is automatically taxed as income on the gain. This means that they will be paying (probably) 33% on their profits. This incidentialy is massively greater than the 15% capital gains tax Labour had proposed.

So Twyford is wrong – any purchases after 1 October sold within two years are taxed. He is campaigning on a falsehood.

By John Stringer – https://conzervative.wordpress.com

None of us – including seasoned American political pundits – predicted Donald J Trump could win the Republican primary. He was “a joke;” I called him “early primary entertainment.”

But he has been a force of nature; a genuine grass-roots phenomenon that has utterly surprised everyone!  Trump beat one of the strongest Republican primary fields EVER. 17 candidates made of: Senators, Governors, a Bush, establishment figures, a brain surgeon etc.

He beat them; he thrashed them; and he did it early and BEFORE he even reached the 1237! amidst MASSIVE speculation of a contested convention and wonks pouring over the maths of 1237 delegates. It was a clean sweep of a talented field (compare the Democrat field).

Trump cleaned up:  He’s a winner! You’re all FIRED!  Boy if ever anyone lived up to his reality TV persona and the ‘back atcha’ demands of The Apprentice (even Celebrity Apprentice). D J Trump has delivered in gold-plated casino spades!

Even if he loses he will always be a Winner. BIG TIME! The Trumps are now American royalty and listening to Donald Jr well there is a dynasty ala Kennedys, Bushs, Clintons.

I can’t really believe it (although I expected him to win): Trump is Presidential Nominee for the GOP! ??

But Can He Now Beat Clinton?

I think he can and probably will

Trump has shackled his wagon to the tide of anti-Establishment and anti-Federal on both the GOP and Democrat sides and in wider America.  His candidacy is a direct reaction to the eight years of Obama and his appeal will draw from untapped sources. He is essentially anti-political correctness and this has growing support amongst the great silent majority who are voting (and why polls are getting predictions so wrong).

Republican registration is way up. Democrat support is down – this will be telling; Clinton assumes the massive 2008 Black vote that came out in support of Obama. She misunderstands that was an Obama vote not necessarily a Democrat vote.

The Democrats are divided; the Bern is humiliating Clinton’s assumed support base AMONGST HER OWN PARTY;  beating her unexpectedly in several stares. She sits there presumptive purely on the basis of the gerrymandered Super Pack system! Sanders is going to challenge this; and if he loses; then will he do a Ross Perot?  A third party candidate on the Left?  Hello President Trump!

Clinton has baggage: she voted for the Iraq war; Benghazi; she old school; her husband’s issues with women that reflect on her; Trump has no political baggage.

20 Reasons Trump can beat Clinton:

1. Trump has defied everyone including the polls and will again
2. He is not that ‘negative’ against women
3. Clinton has the support of African-Americans but 20% don’t back Clinton and if Trump even wins some of them he’s close to the Presidency
4. Hispanics want jobs and Trump is talking jobs
5. Trumps exit poll demographics are widely spread; his appeal goes across the divides of class and gender and socio-economic and even party affiliation
6. The campaign has not even begun and he will kill Clinton or she will over play negatives against Trump
7. Clinton’s negatives are entrenched but Trumps are not; he has room to address and remove them or at least neutralise them; her’s are set
8. Clinton’s negatives are on honesty and integrity – political killer blows
9. She has a genuine FBI investigation over her (which is why The Bern stays)
10. Bernie Sanders is still campaigning hard and will hobble her path to victory
11. Clinton will campaign traditionally; Trump is unorthodox; fresh and doesn’t follow the establishment rule-book – this will disorient Clinton’s campaign
12. The Left will now come out with HATE HATE HATE against Trump and will over reach and damage their cause against him
13. Any Islamic terror will play to Trump’s narrative
14. Any Mexican drug cartels or immigrant crime issues will play to Trump
15. Trump cleaned up in a three-horse race with over 60% of the vote in some states that suggests he has MASSIVE popular appeal that the Left and pundits have under-estimated.
16. The intolerant violent Leftist protest movement against Trump and his supporters at his rallies will swing Middle uncommitted America over to Trump
17. Trump will hire-in a strong shadow Cabinet that will unify the GOP and its nay-saying Establishment.
18. His pick for VP will be inspired and swing GOP and Independent voters in behind him.
19. The more his kids and family speak out the more votes he wins (they just look and sound so wholesome and successful and gorgeous and youthful – everything America loves); the Clinton family doesn’t cut such a smily Hollywood persona (especially with Billy Boys history).  Would Lewinsky endorse Trump?  Ouch!
20. Trump seems strong against Putin; Mexico; the Chinese; ISIS; Europe; and Clinton is “Obama Term III” and regardless of personal politics this is right up there with American voters who will support Trump on that facet alone even if they hate him in others respects. “Make American Great Again” is an inspired campaign slogan with mass appeal.

Happier Days

Stuff reports:

Labour’s danger is being seen to be dwelling too much on a negative like  foreign trusts when the Government is talking up the positives.

That has been the story of the last seven years . Which is why Labour needs a game changer.

At the half way point, the perception that National is cruising to a fourth is starting to cement.

You can see it  in the drooping shoulders on the Labour and Green benches. They’re fighting the fight and no one is listening

I have fairly regular chats with folks from Labour and the Greens. Almost without fail the topics of conversations are what chance there is National will get a 4th term, who will replace Key – and when, and the Labour leadership.

I always say that I think National’s chance of a 4th term is around 60%. That is pretty optimistic as the last fourth term was in 1969! The chances should be less than 20%, so I think 60% is pretty amazing.

Almost without fail the folks from Labour and Greens push back against my 60% prediction and say they think it is 95% or 98% or the like. They can’t see Labour doing well enough to post a serious threat. They are always much more bullish about National’s chances than me.

Only NZ First leader Winston Peters seems capable of disrupting the Government and Key’s narrative.

It’s the classic minor party pendulum swing. While Labour and Little sink, Peters is on the rise. And it’s not just his poll ratings. National’s internal polling said to show Peters’ favourability ratings also improving. For a leader as polarising as Peters that’s a significant shift. And it poses a dilemma for Labour

Embrace Peters and voters would see that a Labour, Greens, NZ First alliance could conceivably form the next Government. Labour needs that to take root to reinvigorate the activists and turn out the centre-Left vote.

Peters is far too long in the tooth to let Labour get away with that one of course. He has so far rebuffed Little’s attempts to cosy up and why wouldn’t he? If Peters is king maker at the next election National is a far more likely proposition.

Peters prefers a two party Government to a three party Government. If he holds the balance of power I hope he chooses Labour and the Greens. However if National is on say 45% and Labour on say 28%, it is hard to see him making the guy who got 28% PM.

By John Stringer https://conzervative.wordpress.com

6:1. Well we did find out that Jon Snow IS REALLY DEAD so that is the demise of a major core character although I still predict he will be “resurrected” as an ice hoard zombie.

Review: Season 6:1 Game of Thrones | coNZervative

(Update 26/4: Gee I might be right helped by this season 6 promo meme of Jonny Snow as – wait for it – well a White Walker!  Told ya!)
The big surprise in 6:1 [SPOILER} is that the sexy red witch is REALLY a wizened ancient old crone witch (icky she’s been having magic sex with all and sundry but is obviously under a doppelgänger spell “Look I’m young and perky-breasted!“). That was very cool. Loved her lumpy back bone spine pushing through pasty white skin: this is a great plot-line twist to the story so far. She backed the wrong royal horse in Stannis Baratheon who is now meat on the snows of the North!
I like that His Annoying Arrogant Wannabee Regicide Stannis Baratheon is dead and his army massacred in the snow by the Boltons of the North (House Bolton of the Dreadfort the ruling house of the North whose banner is a flayed man crucified upside down on a cross after Roose Bolton’s quip “In my family we say: A naked man has few secrets; a flayed man, none.” Charming. (K GoT not for the faint-hearted).
There are so many characters in this epic that it is good to excise a few and with Stannis gone well that really cuts out the Baratheon pretenders to the throne as a family line (the Stag’s Head sigil?)  And who better than to end his sorry ‘royal’ days rather royally than [SPOILER}  Brienne of Tarth!  Excellent.  Her knightly execution of Stannis Baratheon was appropriate (but note: we did not ACTUALLY see  her blade sever his nasty Pretenders head – so like so many – is he REALLY despatched?)

Meanwhile in ‘Persian Ottoman’ Dorne: “weak men will no longer rule Dawn!” meaning not “weak” but “men” and this is set to become a realm of treacherous plotting Amazonians (cue GoT skimpy attire and more lesbian love scenes – which we could all do without thanks) resplendent with Keisha Castle-Hugh’s sisters and their phallic warrior weapons (with lots of B&D leather to keep that community transfixed).

 

The gut-wrenching pathos and full frontal male and female nudity of Queen Cirsei Lanister’s “Walk of Shame” (S5) with that tolling nun bell was great if a not too gratuitous for TV. But now with the murder of her ‘nice’ daughter by the harpies of Dorne (fathered by incest with her twin brother) and the introduction of her 8-foot high Gimp with the swollen bruised face (like something out of Mordor) is Circe set to become an embittered betrayed raging Fury?  I think thee so!  A great counterpart to Daenrys Targarean. Girl Fight!

Arya Stark (‘Needle’ lost in a Stark stack) is very cool as one of the trainee Faceless Gods With No Name Helter Skelter groupees.

Daenrys meanwhile has wandered off like Little Red Riding Hood again and been kidnapped for raw horse sex with her ex-in-laws the plains Dothraki (yawn; that is an aside we could do without; they should have advanced her destiny plot directly towards the West with her dragons in tow breathing rage and fire. Daenrys is the rightful heir to the Iron Throne so get on with it! She has been denigrated mid-S 5 into 6:1 in to a little girl with her episodes becoming a season of Lost (with her literally lost).
But this may be a twist to unite the Dothraki again with her Eastern slave cities and the Dragons to take on everyone else for the Iron Throne.  Fire v Ice.
It also creates space for Tyrion Lannister (“who always pays his debts”) and one of my favourite Machiavellian characters the bad and ball-less Varys to take over and govern Daenery’s abandoned latest city on her behalf. At last a ‘crown’ for Tyrion.
The Men of the Nights Watch?  Meh. Bunch of manly wimps dressed in furs who are much better in the books and a bit undercooked in the TV series. But hopefully they will unite with The Wildings (now on their side of the wall thanks to the ‘traitor’ Jon Snow) with their cool Snow Giants and fight the White Walkers as the latter give them the “Winter Is Coming” cold shoulder.

Prediction: Jon Snow will unite the Walkers’ Ice Zombie army of Undead with The Wildings and the Nights Watch and House Bolton against Targarean.

The revival of House Stark from near oblivion is a great story arch and a central vein in GoT. Nice to see ‘Reek’ (Theon Greyjoy) redeemed and paired with cuzzy Sansa Stark and Brienne of Tarth. The convergence of the three Stark children together (and is Tyrion really a Lannister or a Stark? What was Sean Bean really up to all those cold nights at Kings Landing as the Kings Hand?) is an inevitable and obvious plot path – but is anything ‘envitable’ in GoT?

Oh and we’re all awaiting the terrible and gruesome death of that really really nasty psycho Ramsay. He’s even worse than Joffrey Lannister so Ramsay’s demise is an anticipation probably coming sometime season 6 we would all hope. he has to kill dad first though. Like Tyrion did.  If there is incest we need some paricide too!

Prediction: Watch for the three Stark children to be re-united with Jon Snow (now dead) and Tyrion; to revive House Stark perhaps with The Wildings and the Men of the Night Watch and the White Walkers in an epic confrontation between Deanerys Taragraen’s dragons and fire empires plus the Dothraki in an almighty Tolkien-esque Battle of the Pelennor Fields.

Prediction2:  Will the love sicj knight errant XYZ gradually turning in to a Stone Man touch daenerys and turn her to stone like those extinct Dragon fossils beneath the crypts of King’s Landing?  I think so

It’s great: I can’t get enough

Below right: Cousins Sansa Stark and Theon Greyjoy (‘Reek’) of Winterfell and the Iron Halls- two branches of the family House Stark re-united (the execution of Sean Bean as Lord Stark season 1 has still not been avenged; or the massacre of his entire family at the treacherous Red Wedding).  I’m rather glad to see ‘Reek’ redeemed; that story arch was pretty ugly and dark (the torture scenes and the psycho mind games reducing a human being to a humiliated shell of humanity – ick: GoT really pushes the envelope). Almost too much.

 

Probably got lots wrong (it’s so complex and myriad-epic) so jump in with corrections and your own predictions.

 

Stuff reports:

Political series Back Benches is returning to television screens with a new co-host, Hayley Holt.

Holt, a popular member of the The Crowd Goes Wild team, joined co-host Wallace Chapman for a few episodes of the political debating programme in 2015.

Holt is great on The Crowd Goes Wild, so will do equally well I am sure on Backbenches.

Stuff reports:

Harry Potter star Emma Watson is the latest in a growing list of celebrities implicated in the Panama Papers leak.

The actress was listed as a beneficiary of a company based in the British Virgin Islands, according to The Telegraph.

However, a spokesman said: “Emma receives absolutely no tax or monetary advantages from this offshore company whatsoever – only privacy.”

He said Watson had had her personal safety “jeopardised” by companies publishing her details.

“UK companies are required to publicly publish details of their shareholders and therefore do not give her the necessary anonymity required to protect her personal safety, which has been jeopardised in the past owing to such information being publicly available,” he told The Telegraph.

“Offshore companies do not publish these shareholder details.”

This is a good reminder that there are many legitimate reasons for people to have a foreign trust.

However Andrew Little has said all foreign trusts should be banned as they are part of a dirty and seedy industry.

So by implication he is saying Emma Watson is part of a dirty and seedy industry.

Maybe it is time for Andrew to consider the wisdom of taking a more nuanced position on complex issues, rather than going for the soundbite.

NBR reports:

APN News & Media has today confirmed plans to demerge NZME and revealed it is in discussions with Fairfax Media about a potential merger of their New Zealand businesses.

“If completed, the combined company will be a leading New Zealand media business, offering depth of news, sport and entertainment coverage across a diverse mix of channels including print, digital and radio,” an ASX announcement says.

The two entities have been in preliminary discussions about a potential merger, which will be subject to approval by both companies’ boards, shareholders and the Commerce Commission. The merger is expected to be completed by the end of 2016, subject to all necessary approvals.

I suspect Commerce Commission approval will take longer than six months.

Another NBR story reports:

A merger of New Zealand’s two largest media organisations could be approved on a counterfactual basis, despite competition concerns, a leading competition lawyer says. …

Competition lawyer Andy Matthews says while other countries have rules about media ownership to ensure a diversity of views in the media, “New Zealand’s never had that.”

“From a pure competition perspective, what’s going to happen if these guys don’t get together? Will they survive? It would be inappropriate to stop this because this is how industries respond to change,” he says. …

“It’s a highly fragmented market. I would have thought on the face of it a merger wouldn’t be anti-competitive. It’s an industry in crisis. Do you look at newspapers and online news separate or the same? Does the platform even matter anymore?” he asks.

The merger is undesirable, but the status quo may be even more undesirable as without it one or both companies could shrink significantly.

But the merger would also lead to huge job losses. Estimates I have seen suggest perhaps 1,000 or so.

One key issue for the Commerce Commission might be whether the Herald and Stuff websites would merge.On the print side there is almost no competition already. Radio has plenty of competition. But the websites may be the area where they have competition issues.

Also parliamentary reporting may suffer, as if the two offices merge, then you lose the competitive tension of each office trying to develop exclusive stories.

Stuff reports:

Labour’s chief press secretary and former editor of the Woman’s Weekly, Sarah Stuart, has resigned from Andrew Little’s office.

Stuart will finish in late May and cited “family reasons” as her motivation for leaving.

“I will be sorry to leave but have made this difficult decision for family reasons. I will miss the cut and thrust of Parliament, the talented team in the Leader’s Office and the strength and integrity that Andrew embodies,” she said.

Stuart, whose other former roles included deputy editor of the Sunday Star-Times, the Herald on Sunday, and the head of APN’s regional and daily community newspapers, has also worked in Sydney as a journalist.

With the departure of Stuart, Labour will be onto their seventh chief press secretary in seven and a bit years.

Off memory they have had G J Thompson, Fran Mold, Kris Faafoi, Julian Robins, Simon Cunliffe and Sarah Stuart.

The order paper is here.

Oral Questions 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm

1. JACQUI DEAN to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the resilience of the New Zealand financial system?
2. ANDREW LITTLE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statements in the House yesterday?
3. JAMES SHAW to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
4. Dr JIAN YANG to the Minister for Building and Housing: What reports has he received on the number of properties bought and sold by those with tax residency overseas and how do they compare with previous reports?
5. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Finance: Will his expectation stated in Budget 2015 that unemployment would drop below 5 percent in 2016 be met; if not, why not?
6. RON MARK to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
7. MELISSA LEE to the Minister for Land Information: What did the data, released by Land Information New Zealand, in the Property Transfers and Tax Residency report indicate regarding the tax residency of those buying and selling property in New Zealand?
8. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister for Building and Housing:Does he stand by his statement in relation to data showing that 1,694 houses were sold into foreign ownership, excluding any bought via trusts or companies, that “the numbers are so small”?
9. JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Revenue: Does he agree with the Prime Minister, who said the disclosure and reporting requirements for foreign trusts under IR607 were “extremely broad and deep”?
10. DENIS O’ROURKE to the Minister for Building and Housing: Does he stand by his statement concerning off-shore buyers pushing up Auckland house prices, “The easiest trick in the book is to create a scapegoat that it’s these foreigners that are a problem”?
11. Dr SHANE RETI to the Minister of Education: What recent announcements has she made that will increase support to students with special needs?
12. CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Why does she accept some responsibility as Minster of Education for Hon Bill English’s statement that a lot of Kiwis are “pretty damned hopeless” and “they can’t read and write properly”?

National: Four questions on the NZ financial system, foreign buyers of housing x 2 and special education

Labour: Four questions on PM standing by his statements, unemployment, foreign buyers of housing and education

Greens: Two questions on PM standing by his statements and foreign buyers of housing

NZ First: Two questions on PM standing by his statements and foreign buyers of housing

General Debate 3.00 pm to 3.00 pm

A one hour debate of 12 speeches of five minutes each.

Government Bills 4.00 pm to 6.00 pm and 7.30 pm to 10.00 pm

Te Ture Whenua Māori Bill – first reading

This bill restates and reforms the law relating to Māori land.

• Introduced: April 2016

The first reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill – second reading

This Bill amends the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 to require smoke alarms and insulation in residential rental properties.

• Introduced: December 2015
• 1st reading: December 2015, passed unanimously
• Select Committee report: April 2016, supported with amendments, Greens dissenting

The second reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Health (Protection) Amendment Bill – committee stage

This bill amends the Health Act 1956 to improve the tracing of people who may have an infectious disease, increase the range of infectious diseases that are notifiable. It also bans the provision of commercial artificial UV tanning services to people under 18 years of age

• Introduced: July 2014
• 1st reading: November 2014, passed unanimously
• Select Committee report: May 2015, supported with amendments, Labour, Greens, NZ First dissenting
• 2nd reading: May 2015, passed unanimously

There is no time limit for the committee stage but it is estimated to be a three hour debate as the bill has two parts and preliminary provisions to debate.

There are two SOPs – one from Annette King to ban sunbed operators entirely, not just from under age clients. Also one from the Minister with minor clarifications.

Trans-Tasman reported:

The reform being pushed through by Tolley is perhaps the most far-reaching undertaken by the Govt and could stand as its greatest legacy if it achieves its goals. Already it has made some headway in improving the lives of Maori children who are more than twice as likely as Pakeha children to grow up in households experiencing hardship, and fare worse in most indicators.

A report by the University of Otago-based Child and Youth Epidemiology Service shows increasing numbers of Maori pre schoolers are getting early childhood education. There’s also been a halving of school suspensions for Maori students, an increase in immunisation rates, fewer young Maori smoking,and falling hospitalisation rates for Maori children for injuries from assault, neglect or maltreatment.

That’s promising.

The report is here. Some extracts:

• A drop from 2010 to 2013 of Maori children living in relative poverty using the measure of below 60% of the contemporary median income, after housing costs
• 17% of Maori children in “material hardship” down from 21% in 2011
• The proportion of Māori new entrants reporting participation in ECE prior to school entry increased, from 83.6% in 2001 to 96.3% in 2013.
• Suspension rates for Māori students falling from 18.8 per 1,000 in 2000, to 9.1per 1,000 in 2013.
• Medical admissions with a social gradient in Māori children increased from 2000 to 2001, remained steady through to 2007, increased from 2007 to 2009, remained steady until 2012, and fell from 2012 to 2013 to reach a level similar to that seen in 2001–2007. In contrast, injury admissions with a social gradient fluctuated from year to year in the early 2000s and followed a downward trend from 2006 to 2013.
• During 2000–2013, Māori children’s admission rates for injuries due to assault, neglect of maltreatment increased from 2002–2003 to 2008–09, and then declined
• During 2000–2013, Māori young people’s admission rates for injuries due to assault were variable. The rate for 2013 was the lowest in the whole period.

To paraphrase Life of Brian’s “What did the Romans ever do for us except …”, you might ask “What did National ever do for Maori except ….”

A guest post by Carrick Graham:

New Zealand has always been a global leader in tobacco control. The 1990 Smokefree Environment’s Act came about due to the leadership of Helen Clark who essentially laid the foundations for the aspirational goal today of New Zealand being Smokefree by 2025.

For the past quarter of a century tobacco control has achieved significant milestones in their efforts against tobacco.

But herein lies a problem. The actual achievement of a Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 goal of having 5% or less of the population smoking has now created a rod for the back of tobacco control.

The purists believe the only way to achieve the goal is for the Government to push through further amendments to the Smokefree Environments Act. They are particularly enthused with the possible introduction of plain-packaging of tobacco products this side of the Tasman.

This desire to introduce another round of regulations seems to be at the expense of ignoring, or even acknowledging low hanging fruits that are currently in plain sight.

Take the review of the Customs and Excise Act that is currently underway. At this very moment, anyone can grow up to 15 kilograms of tobacco (that’s equivalent to 300x 50g RYO pouches) year after year for personal use. That is the equivalent of 300x 50gram pouches of un-taxed and un-labelled roll-your-own.  This provision seems at odds with the objectives of tobacco control and a Smokefree Aotearoa. Yet surprisingly, not a Scooby’s whistle from tobacco control on this issue.

But that’s not the most scandalous element of tobacco control today.

The British Government recently commissioned an independent review of the latest evidence on e-cigarettes and their use to ensure that practitioners, policy makers and the public have the best evidence available. The result was the ‘E-cigarettes: an evidence update’ Report, released in August 2015.

As a result, Public Health England now says “best estimates show e-cigarettes are 95% less harmful to your health than normal cigarettes, and when supported by a smoking cessation service, help most smokers to quit tobacco altogether”.

One of the lead authors of the report was New Zealand’s very own public health academic, Dr Hayden McRobbie.

This report has been supported by credible organisations like Cancer Research UK, the Royal College of Physicians, and the British Lung Foundation. Yet, the likes of ASH New Zealand, Smokefree Coalition, and even the Cancer Society, seemingly refuse to openly discuss what is clearly the new elephant in the room.

Just last week the UK’s Royal College of Physicians – an institution representing 32, 000 doctors and renowned for its work in tobacco control, released a 220 page report Nicotine without smoke: Tobacco harm reduction.

They conclude that: E-cigarettes are not a gateway to smoking (actually they can act as a gateway from smoking) and do not result in normalisation of smoking.

This Royal College of Physicians report received significant global media coverage. In New Zealand it was picked up by the Otago Daily Times and warranted just a fleeting mention in the NZ Herald. Stuff seemed to have missed the story.

It seems some within New Zealand’s tobacco control community cannot bring themselves to openly (or publicly) discuss what are by a country mile, two of the most significant and internationally recognised reports on e-cigarettes ever produced.

Further to this, more than 50 public health researchers recently wrote a ‘Statement from specialists in nicotine science and public health policy’ to Dr Margaret Chan, the Director General of the World Health Organisation.

In this statement these specialists (including eminent New Zealand public health figures Associate Professor Chris Bullen, Dr Murray Laugesen, Dr Hayden McRobbie) said:

“The potential for tobacco harm reduction products to reduce the burden of smoking related disease is very large, and these products could be among the most significant health innovations of the 21^st Century – perhaps saving hundreds of millions of lives. The urge to control and suppress them as tobacco products should be resisted and instead regulation that is fit for purpose and designed to realise the potential should be championed by WHO.

We are deeply concerned that the classification of these products as tobacco and their inclusion in the FCTC will do more harm than good, and obstruct efforts to meet the targets to reduce non-communicable disease we are all committed to.”

With Euromonitor forecasting retail sales of e-cigarettes worldwide for 2013 at US$2.5 billion, Wells Fargo estimating that figure will top $10 billion by 2017, and Bloomberg Industries projecting that sales will exceed those of traditional cigarettes by 2047, it is a disruptive technology-driven market that is not going away. 

Clive Bates, a former Director of ASH UK tweeted this week ‘Great thing about NZ is that it is small enough to change quickly, big enough to be a game-changer worldwide’.

To this point, this week New Zealand is to host the world premiere of the documentary ‘A Billion Lives’ at DocEdge Film Festival. The film is about vaping and the role e-cigarettes play in harm reduction and public health.

How the Government responds to this will be very interesting indeed.

Disclosure: Carrick Graham was Corporate Affairs Director for BAT NZ until 2006, when he left to establish Facilitate Communications. He has maintained an interest in the tobacco debate. Facilitates’ clients include retailer interests.

Stuff reports:

On top of the Greenpeace allegations Key also took a swipe at Green Party MP Mojo Mathers, who along with National MP Paul Foster-Bell, has been linked to a foreign trust.

During Question Time Key told Shaw to “just turn around and ask his colleague, Mojo Mathers, (who) has a foreign trust”.

Mathers sought leave in the House to dispute Key’s claims and clarified she was a “beneficiary of a UK-based family trust”.

“It is not a trust that I own, and it is not a foreign trust,” she told the House.

No-one owns a trust. But if it is a trust based in the UK then it is a foreign trust and she is a beneficiary of a foreign trust.

Of course there is nothing at all wrong with that. No-one thinks Mathers has done anything wrong. But Andrew Little is the idiot who has called for all foreign trusts to be banned saying they are of no value. So Key was using Mathers as an example of how stupid it is to claim all foreign trusts are bad.

Labour leader Andrew Little later defended Mathers and said Key’s comments were “dumb” and “totally tasteless”.

“If he was a man he would stand up and apologise, he didn’t do that.”

“She should never have been put in that position. She’s the only deaf member in the House and this is New Zealand sign language week. It was just totally tasteless,” he said.

I had to read this twice to make sure I read it correctly.

Andrew Little seems to be saying either that being deaf as an MP means you can’t be criticised by other MPs (and it wasn’t even criticism), or that during Sign Language Week you can’t criticise an MP if they are deaf.

Does this mean that during Maori Language Week Labour MPs are banned from criticising Hekia Parata and Simon Bridges?

Phil Twyford claimed last year:

Nearly 40 percent of the houses sold in that period went to people of Chinese descent, and as your introduction pointed out, the Chinese New Zealander population in Auckland, according to the most recent census data, is about 9 percent. Now, that is a remarkable discrepancy, and, in my view, it’s simply not plausible to suggest, as many have done in the last couple of years, that the Chinese— ethnic Chinese people who are buying houses in Auckland are all Chinese New Zealanders. It points, I think, to only one possible conclusion, and that is that offshore Chinese investors have a very significant presence in the Auckland real estate market when you consider that Auckland house prices are spiralling out of control at the moment. …

This is an issue about foreign investment, and it doesn’t matter in one sense what the surnames of the buyers are, but if this data shows, and I believe it strongly suggests, that offshore Chinese investors have a major presence, possibly as high as 30 percent of the houses sold by this real estate firm over a three-month period, then that is very significant.

Louise Upston has released actual data. It shows that 4% of Auckland buyers were overseas tax residents and 58% of those 4% were from China which is 2.3% of total Auckland sales.

Phil Twyford should be ashamed of himself for his disgraceful and shoddy data where he failed to differentiate between New Zealanders and foreigners on the basis of their surname. You may have a Chinese sounding surname yet be a 4th generation New Zealander.

The LINZ data is not perfect and they go to great lengths to state its limitations. But the gap between the 30% Twyford was claiming and the 2.3% in the LINZ data is so great that is is preposterous to suggest that Twyford was anywhere near correct.

Stats Chats says:

The LINZ report does a good job explaining the real limitations of `tax residence’ as a criterion, but it’s a lot better than any previous data we’ve had.

I’m looking forward to a Mt Roskill by-election (if Goff wins) where the Labour candidate has to explain to the many Chinese New Zealanders living in Mt Roskill why Labour whipped up Aucklanders to blame them for high property prices.

The data will continue to be updated every three months, so we will be able to see if the levels of purchases by foreign tax residents increases. But for now there is nothing to suggest they are having a big impact on the market, and hence Labour’s policy to ban them is basically worthless, as it would have a miniscule impact on house prices at best. Maybe Labour could focus on real solutions such as increasing the amount of land available, instead of deeming people with Chinese sounding surnames as the problem.

Stuff reports:

A Green Party donor has been listed in the database of the Panama Papers documents leak.

Kiwi rich-lister Forbes Herbert Elworthy was named in the offshore leaks documents, associated with a Singapore trust and entities in the British Virgin Islands.

Elworthy donated $15,000 to the Green Party in 2011 during the election campaign.

Now imagine if Mr Elworthy was a donor to National. The Greens would be indignant and decrying Mr Elworthy and saying that National is funded through people who use tax havens and avoid or evade tax, Labour would agree, and the media would all write long columns about how awful a look this is for National and John Key.

Shaw made clear the party were not against Kiwis having trusts overseas, they just wanted more transparency and disclosure on their details.

But Andrew Little says they are of no value and should be banned entirely.

“It’s not whether someone’s got a foreign trust, it’s whether they’re doing anything illegitimate such as tax avoidance, money laundering of anything like that,” he said.

First of all tax avoidance is not illegal. The Greens promote tax avoidance. Their policy to exempt electric cars from fringe benefit tax would lead to massive tax avoidance. They think that is okay so long as it tax avoidance for something they approve of.