Recession ends

Stats NZ reports:

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7 percent in the December 2024 quarter

This is well above market expectations, so is welcome good news.

The history of recent recessions is:

  1. Jan 2008 – June 2009: -2.5%
  2. Jul 2010 – Dec 2010: -0.8%
  3. Jan 2020 – June 2020: -11.5%
  4. Apr 2024 – Sep 2024: -2.1%

Average annual economic growth from 2018 to 2024 was just 1.8% a year. From 2012 to 2018 it averaged 3.0% a year.

Not telling us everything

Newsroom reports:

A US obstetrician-gynaecologist has cast serious doubt on a high-profile child abuse conviction, asserting the main injuries sustained by the baby were the result of trauma suffered during labour and delivery, not parental abuse. …

Dr Barry Schifrin, a specialist in maternal fetal medicine based in California, criticised the Starship child protection team, Te Puaruruhau, for its lack of an obstetrical review of the case before it diagnosed non-accidental injury, and describes the official version of the baby’s birth presented in court by Starship Hospital doctors as a “fiction”. …

Schifrin is an expert at reading fetal trace monitoring and was part of the team that invented the foetal heart rate monitor in the 1960s, which was developed to help reduce foetal death and brain damage during labour and delivery.

I have no expertise in this matter. But I always get interested when a media organisation finds an international expert, and promotes them as the sole source of truth, without any nuance.

A quick google finds the following on Dr Schifrin (who is 87 years old):

  • A court recently ruled his expert testimony as inadmissible as his conclusion “that there was a lack of standard of care by the nurse and the physician is not based on sufficient data or facts and not the product of reliable principles.”
  • In 2007 he was censured for testimony in a case, and resigned from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
  • A court noted “Dr. Schifrin’s causation theory, which has been excluded as unreliable by other courts”

Now again I am not saying who is right or wrong, or if Schifrin is right or wrong. My objection is that Newsroom presents him an authoritative expert, without any qualification.

General Debate 20 March 2025

71 different procurement rules!

Nicola Willis announced:

The Government is proposing changes to procurement rules to make it easier for New Zealand businesses to win government contracts that are collectively worth more than $50 billion a year, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis says.

“The changes include introducing a new economic benefit test and scrapping 24 rules that put unnecessary obstacles in the path of Kiwi businesses. …

“Currently there are 71 rules that agencies must follow when tendering contracts. We are proposing to reduce that number to 47 by scrapping rules that are redundant or unnecessary, duplicate content, repeat statutory and regulatory requirements or have never been applied in practice.

71 rules is insane. 47 is less so.

In an ideal world, there would be just four things a tender is judged on:

  • Experience
  • Capability
  • Quality
  • Price

A bizarre decision by the Imperial War Museum

Lord Ashcroft writes:

My disappointment at learning about the planned closure of the Lord Ashcroft Gallery at the Imperial War Museum has been tempered by the touching reaction to the imminent loss of my medal collection from public viewing.

I remain hugely disappointed at the decision of the IWM to shut the gallery, which displays the world’s largest collection of Victoria Crosses (VCs), and that trustees did not have the courtesy of seeking a meeting with me to discuss it.

It was particularly galling learning about this through a third party.

However, not only have friends and strangers alike been incredibly supportive towards me but I have received two offers from Commonwealth nations to display my VC and George Cross (GC) collection abroad.

Although this would present some logistical challenges, I am touched that the collection is in such demand even if the IWM has decided that it will close the gallery on June 1 this year.

This is such a bizarre decision by the Imperial War Museum. Lord Ashcroft not only provided all the medals at no cost, but also covered the costs of the gallery. So they are closing down a free, hugely popular, exhibit. I can only assume they have been hit by the woke virus, and have decided that awe should now be ashamed of war heroes.

Wouldn’t it be amazing if the medal collection could be hosted in New Zealand. It would become our most visited museum. You could spend hours there looking at the medals, and reading the citations of the 200+ VCs and GCs.

Partridge on the truth about NATO

Roger Partridge writes:

Central to Sachs’s worldview is the claim that NATO’s eastward expansion forced Russia’s hand. According to this narrative, the West broke solemn promises made in 1990 not to expand “one inch eastward” after German reunification. The West’s subsequent enlargement encircled Russia with hostile forces and left Putin no choice but to invade.

That narrative collapses under scrutiny.

First, Putin himself has contradicted this rationale. In a June 2022 speechmarking Peter the Great’s 350th birthday, Putin explicitly compared his actions in Ukraine to the Tsar “reclaiming” Russian lands, suggesting territorial ambitions rather than defensive concerns. This was not about NATO – it was about empire.

Second, there is no historical basis for the claim that NATO broke a promise not to expand eastward. No formal treaty or written agreement containing such a sweeping commitment exists. Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader at the time, explicitly refuted this narrative. In an October 2014 interview with Russia Beyond, he stated plainly: “The topic of NATO expansion was not discussed at all.”

According to diplomatic historian Mary Sarotte, declassified records show that discussions concerned NATO forces in former East Germany specifically – not a permanent ban on sovereign nations joining the alliance. Sachs’s claim rests entirely on selective interpretations of informal discussions during German reunification. This is hardly the basis for a binding international commitment that would permanently deny sovereign nations their right to choose alliances.

The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act further undermines this “broken promise” narrative. In this formal agreement, Russia acknowledged NATO’s plans for expansion while receiving assurances about military deployments. If a binding “no expansion” pledge had existed in 1990, this later document would have been unnecessary.

Third, NATO’s actual approach toward Ukraine disproves claims of aggressive expansion. Despite growing security concerns, NATO repeatedly delayed Ukraine’s membership prospects. Even after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the alliance still declined to offer Ukraine a Membership Action Plan. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine remained years away from possible NATO membership. This directly contradicts Putin’s claim that NATO posed an imminent threat.

Very useful dispelling of this myth.

Ironically the greatest asset NATO has is Putin. His relentless attacks on neighbouring countries is what pushed Sweden and Finland to join NATO.

In 1994, Ukraine possessed the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal – a Soviet inheritance that included approximately 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads. Ukraine voluntarily surrendered this entire arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, receiving security assurances from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom in exchange. All signatories pledged to respect Ukraine’s borders and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against Ukraine.

This agreement represented a remarkable act of good faith by Ukraine. It eliminated a massive nuclear arsenal that could have served as the ultimate security guarantee against future aggression. Ukraine fulfilled its obligations completely, transferring all nuclear weapons to Russia for dismantling by 1996.

Russia’s invasion in 2014 and again in 2022 represents a clear violation of these commitments. 

Ukraine was betrayed by Russia.

General Debate 19 March 2025

$22 million just on advice re the Town Hall

Andrea Vance writes:

Wellington’s council has spent $22 million on outsourced advice on its town hall upgrade – $2m more than the original budget for the cursed project.

Isn’t this astonishing. The WCC has spent more money just on advice (not construction) on their gold plated town hall upgrade than the original overall budget for it.

And they wonder why we are unhappy with 20% rates increases!

TVNZ reporting a fourth hand rumour as news

1 News reports:

Substack blogger Emily Writes spoke to a source with a family member at a school who claimed the child opened their school lunch yesterday, “and a couple of flies came out“.

The media are so desperate to report bad news on the Government they are resorting to a unverified fourth hand source.

According to this the child, told a family member who told a source who told a blogger – and this makes national news!

Sean Teddy, hautū operations and integration at the Ministry of Education said: “We are aware of a complaint. 

“The Ministry is working with NZ Food Safety, who are looking into the matter to establish the facts. 

“However, given that the meal was heated for 25 minutes in a commercial oven and then transported to schools in specially insulated delivery boxes to keep them hot, we do think it is unlikely that a fly flew out of a packaged meal.”

In other words, it is near impossible – but hey lets run a story based on a fourth hand allegation.

Useful Public Works Act reforms

The Public Works Act is a necessary evil. In theory no one should ever be forced to sell their land against their will, but then we would never be able to construct essential infrastructure.

So any changes to the PWA should be critically examined. I’m horrified that one local Labour City Councillor is campaigning to use the PWA to take over a shopping mall.

The changes announced by the Government are:

  • Incentive payments: To encourage early agreements, landowners who voluntarily sell their land before a Notice of Intention is issued will receive an additional premium payment equal to 15 percent of their land’s value, with a maximum payment of $150,000.
  • Recognition payments: All landowners whose land is acquired under the accelerated process will receive a five percent recognition payment, acknowledging the critical role their land plays in delivering essential infrastructure, with a maximum payment of $92,000.
  • Replacement objections process: Landowners who object to land acquisition for critical infrastructure projects will no longer go through the Environment Court. They will instead submit their objections directly to the relevant decision-maker, either the Minister for Land Information or the local authority, for faster resolution.

The first two looks very sound. Additional compensation is good.

I am uneasy about the third one. The fact we have a City Councillor campaigning to use the PWA against a shopping mall owner makes me nervous about making them the decision maker.

General Debate 18 March 2025

Greens think prisoners are the victims!

The Herald reported:

The Greens’ Tamatha Paul has expressed “regret” about a claim she made on social media that the “vast majority” of people in prison are there for non-violent offences that they’ve “had to do as a response to poverty”. 

Police and Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell has described comments in her video as “total nonsense” and an “insult” to New Zealanders who have been victimised by those in prison.

The Greens would have you think people go to prison for shoplifting etc.

She went on to say most people are in prison because of disabilities, conditions like fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, and undiagnosed autism or ADHD. 

“They’re being punished for being disabled, they’re being punished for being poor, they’re being punished for being Māori, they’re being punished for our system that we have in our country.”

Again they think the criminals are the victims.

They’re not being punished for being poor or disabled etc etc. They are being punished because they bashed someone or raped someone or robbed someone etc etc.

Dems in disarray

Erick Erickson writes:

On Tuesday night, Donald Trump stood in the House of Representatives and introduced DJ Daniel, a thirteen-year-old boy battling brain cancer who desperately wants to be a police officer. His local police department made DJ an honorary officer. Last year, a video went viral of people ridiculing DJ for proudly wearing his uniform. The second time DJ went viral was Tuesday night, when Democrats refused to even applaud him for his struggle with cancer.

At the not-quite State of the Union, President Trump heralded DJ’s valiant fight against cancer and made him an honorary member of the United States Secret Service. On Wednesday, DJ got to roam the White House, and reporters videoed him hugging Mr. Trump in the Oval Office. On Tuesday night, Democrats could not muster the normalcy or decency to just clap for the kid.

On MSNBC, the rich, white, neurotic women who hold the Democratic Party captive let loose. Nichole Wallace openly hoped DJ would not grow up to be like the police officers who committed suicide after January 6, 2021. Rachael Maddow called it “disgusting” that Donald Trump would invite DJ to the ceremony. On CBS, Stephen Colbert blasted the Democrats for failing to do anything significant to protest Trump even as Americans watched Congressman Al Green get dragged out of the House chambers as other Democrats held up signs and dressed in bubblegum pink. All that was missing in the Democrats’ circus was a flaming trapeze. They resorted to a metaphorical flaming bag of poop in their conduct.

The Democrats in Congress looked feeble, as they remained sitting waving their little signs as if they were student protesters rather than elected representatives. Trump played them, and they fell for it.

General Debate 17 March 2025

Little’s mega-merger is tracking $28 billion with Excel!

The Herald reports:

Health New Zealand had been tracking its finances through a single Excel spreadsheet, a financial review of the public agency has revealed.

An independent report by Deloitte, published on Health NZ’s website, found the significant reliance on the use of a single Excel file was a “major issue” for the agency responsible for managing billions of taxpayer dollars.

It also found Health NZ had a lack of control around expenditure and revenue, and its savings plans, intended to balance the gap, were ineffective.

Budgets at the agency were not consistent with expected revenue.

The spreadsheet was the primary data file used by the public health agency to manage its financial performance, and was used to produce several financial reports.

“The use of an Excel spreadsheet file to track and report financial performance for a $28 billion expenditure organisation raises significant concerns, particularly when other more appropriate systems are present on the IT landscape,” the report stated.

It found the health agency was flawed in using the Excel file, as the source of uploaded information was often hard to trace. Errors were not immediately picked up, and there was “limited tracking” to source information.

The report found the sheet was highly prone to human error, such as accidentally typing a number or forgetting an extra zero at the end.

It is beyond belief that the largest entity in New Zealand, is using Excel to track $28 billion of taxpayer spending. This explains so much about how Health NZ kept having blowouts.

I last used Excel for financial reporting for my business around 20 years ago, and we have around 0.005% of the revenue of Health NZ. The thought that the financial reporting of the entire NZ health system is being done via MS Excel is beyond alarming.

The people to blame are Andrew Little and his genius colleagues in Cabinet who decided to ignore Heather Simpson’s advice to merely reduce the number of DHBs, and instead thought it was a brilliant idea to merge 20 DHBs into one entity, in just two years – and during a pandemic.

Merging 20 organisations together with 80,000 staff would normally be perhaps a 10 year project, with the best global leadership available. But instead we got such a flawed initiative, that the end result is they don’t even have a unified financial reporting system. I suspect the 20 former DHBs are still doing their own finances, and Health NZ is just using Excel to try and piece it all together. What this means is Health NZ has no ability to actually get into the details of their spending, because they have no unified financial payments system.

On average, financial reporting took 12 to 15 days, and five days to analyse.

So thanks to Andrew Little’s reform, it takes 20 days to just find out the answer to a financial query!

An expensive trial

The Taxpayers’ Union released:

The Taxpayers’ Union can reveal through an Official Information Act request that spending on a National Ticketing System for buses has so far cost $146.4 million (of a $1.338 billion budget over 14 years). NZTA first agreed to the project in 2009, and funding was approved for a business case in 2018.

Of the costs, $527.8 million is for design and build of the system, and further $800 million for operational costs.

Rhys Hurley, Taxpayers’ Union Investigations Coordinator said:

“16 years after the project was first agreed to, all we have is a Christchurch pilot and a local rollout in Timaru already facing problems. This project is the poster-child for how government bureaucracy bloats projects into expensive, inefficient nightmares.”

“The rest of the world manages ticketing systems fine – so why in New Zealand does it take more than a decade and a half, and hundreds of millions of dollars, before we even get to the system rolling out?”

This does seem a lot of money and time for little.

There are some excellent ticketing systems around the world. Oyster in London, Octopus in Hong Kong etc. We should just use an existing system, rather than spend a decade creating our own.

A pitiful fact check

There is room for good impartial fact checking. But too often fact checkers either get it wrong or just nit pick and miss the woods for the trees. Here’s a great example from AP which claims seven of Trump’s claims in his SOTU speech were false.

TRUMP: “Illegal border crossings last month were by far the lowest ever recorded. Ever.”

THE FACTS: Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Saturday that Border Patrol apprehended 8326 people on the US-Mexico border last month. But US government data show that Border Patrol routinely averaged below that number in the 1960s.

While February marked the lowest arrest total in decades, Border Patrol averaged less than February 2025 for the first seven years of 1960s.

This is just pitiful. The difference between the lowest ever and the lowest in 75 years is irrelevant to most people. You could also argue that the much smaller population in the 1960s means the 2025 is smaller as a proportion.

TRUMP: “Over the past four years, 21 million people poured into the United States. Many of them were murderers, human traffickers, gang members.”

THE FACTS: That figure, which Trump cites regularly, is highly inflated. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported more than 10.8 million arrests for illegal crossings from Mexico from January 2021 through December 2024.

But that’s arrests, not people. Under asylum restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, many people crossed more than once until they succeeded because there were no legal consequences for getting turned back to Mexico. So the number of people is lower than the number of arrests.

This is pretty pitiful also. The issue is a secure border. The fact some people illegally cross more than once doesn’t make it less of a problem.

TRUMP: “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again. And it’s happening. And it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”

THE FACTS: Trump is banking on the idea that taxing imports is the road to riches for the United States. Most economists say Trump’s tariffs would hurt the country, as they’re tax increases that could raise the costs of goods in ways that could also harm economic growth.

This is not something that can be fact checked. It is Trump’s subjective opinion. Now I disagree with him 100%, but again this is a misuse of a so called fact check.

TRUMP: “Among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families. As you know, we inherited from the last administration an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare.”

THE FACTS: Inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2022 under US President Joe Biden, but Trump did not inherit a disastrous economy by any measure. The unemployment rate ticked down to a low 4% in January, the month he took office, while the economy expanded a healthy 2.8% in 2024.

Again a claim that the economy was a catastrophe is an opinion, not a fact.

Guest Post: Submission on the Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill

A guest post by Deane Jessup:

1. Introduction

1.1. My name is Deane Walden Jessep. I am a sixth-generation New Zealander—colloquially, a Kiwi. While myself and my family have some Māori ancestry in our family background, we identify as a New Zealander’s first and foremost, without distinguishing Māori heritage as central to who we are.

1.2. I am making this submission in support of the Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill. I believe this Bill will promote greater clarity and consistency in how Treaty principles are understood and applied in legislation.

2. Personal Context

2.1. I recognize and value the oral histories and Māori concepts that inform parts of our shared New Zealand identity. In my own whaikōrero, I connect through my whakapapa to my ancestors including and especially those who were born in New Zealand. However, I view all my New Zealand-born ancestors as tangata whenua—people of the land—regardless of whether their heritage is Polynesian, European, or otherwise. This inclusive perspective is part of what makes me a proud Kiwi.

2.2. My own Māori ancestry does not shape my daily life more than any other part of my cultural background. I consider myself equally a descendant of all the people who established themselves here, creating the rich and diverse heritage we now share as New Zealanders.

2.3. In my family, we have not been involved in Treaty settlement processes. We respect the settlement of historical injustices but believe the ongoing expansion of Treaty-based claims—including newer concepts—risks prolonging grievances rather than bringing about harmony.

3. Support for Clarity and Definitions

3.1. I support this Bill primarily because it codifies the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi in a way that reduces ambiguity. Currently, the meaning of “Treaty principles” can vary across different contexts, court decisions, and Waitangi Tribunal findings, which leads to confusion.

3.2. By clearly articulating the principles—particularly the concepts of Crown sovereignty, recognition of relevant hapū and iwi rights (where these differ from those of any other New Zealander and have been confirmed through the settlement process), and equality before the law—this Bill will help New Zealanders share a common understanding of what “Treaty principles” mean in legislation.

3.3. Clarity looks like an agreed definition. I am satisfied with the text of the Bill as introduced, while remaining open to any further refinements through proper consultation and select committee processes. The referendum mechanism also ensures a national dialogue and robust debate on these definitions.

4. Perspective on Equality and Treaty Rights

4.1. I strongly believe in universal equality of opportunity. This contrasts with the concept of “equality of outcome” or the idea that only one group can be racist based on perceived “privilege.” Such redefinitions—often derived from overseas discourses like the BLM movement in the U.S.—complicate our local discussions. We risk talking past each other if we do not first settle on shared definitions.  This Bill is an important step in establishing our own local and shared meanings—something that can help insulate us from the effects of social media driving international discourse into our local context.

4.2. I do not believe modern Māori should hold additional or special rights beyond those of any other New Zealander, except where those rights are explicitly set out in Treaty settlements for historical breaches. In that sense, Principle 2(2) of the Bill strikes a reasonable compromise: it respects existing settlement outcomes, while recognising that we are all subject to the same fundamental rights.

4.3. Equality before the law (Principle 3) is a crucial part of who we are as a country. It should be stated and affirmed in legislation to protect everyone’s rights and ensure no group is unfairly advantaged or disadvantaged based on heritage alone.

5. Importance of the Referendum Requirement

5.1. I support the referendum mechanism in the Bill. Having a public vote ensures that these crucial constitutional principles are not decided behind closed doors but are instead agreed upon by the majority of New Zealanders. This not only underpins the legitimacy of the legislation but also creates an opportunity for a wide-ranging, inclusive discussion about what the Treaty means to us all, in the 21st century.

5.2. I believe many New Zealanders, including Māori, share a desire for clarity, fairness, and an end to protracted disputes. A referendum would be an excellent vehicle for allowing every citizen—regardless of background—to participate in defining our shared future.

6. A Vision for New Zealand

6.1. By supporting this Bill, I hope to foster harmony and mutual growth for all New Zealanders. We should honour historical injustices through settlements but draw a line under them once they are resolved, so that all future generations can move forward with a sense of unity, equality, and understanding.

6.2. In doing so, I believe our country can avoid the polarizing importation of foreign identity politics. We can clarify our uniquely New Zealand concepts of rangatiratanga, sovereignty, and partnership in a way that feels inclusive and fair to everyone who calls New Zealand home.

7. Conclusion

7.1. In closing, I fully support the Bill’s aim to define the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi in legislation. Adopting clear, mutually understood definitions—and allowing the people of New Zealand to affirm them via referendum—will strengthen our social cohesion, uphold equality before the law, and allow us to acknowledge historical settlements while setting a fair path forward for all.

7.2. I encourage the Select Committee to further refine Principle 2(2) if needed but otherwise endorse the Bill’s framework. I look forward to seeing other submissions, including those who may disagree, as open dialogue is essential to forging a stable consensus.7.3. Thank you for considering my submission. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or would like further clarification.

General Debate 16 March 2025

Oliver Hartwich on the real TDS

Oliver Hartwich writes:

Critiques of Trump often receive a predictable response, regardless of the source. Critics are promptly diagnosed with so-called Trump Derangement Syndrome, a supposedly clinical condition that renders them incapable of rational thought when it comes to the 45th and 47th president.

This diagnosis has become so standardised that Trump’s defenders simply use the initialism TDS as if referencing an established medical condition rather than engaging with substantive arguments. It functions as a convenient dismissal mechanism, allowing complex geopolitical concerns to be waved away as mere emotional reaction.

However, the diagnosis is more aptly applied to Trump’s defenders than his detractors. It is they who exhibit the defining symptoms of derangement: abandonment of previously held principles, immunity to factual evidence and a willingness to excuse behaviour they would condemn in any other context.

The moral compass of these devotees has been so thoroughly corrupted that it no longer points to true north but swivels toward whatever position Trump adopts, no matter how contradictory or problematic.

It must be exhausting to maintain this level of devotion. They champion tariffs when he proposes them, then pivot to supporting their cancellation when he changes his mind. They criticise endless wars until Trump threatens to start new ones. The only consistent principle is unwavering loyalty to Trump himself.

This is so spot on. It is hilarious seeing so many people whose entire online presence is devoted to slavishly backing Trump, regardless of what he does or say.

Interesting use of AI by media

Grant Duncan alerted me to a new feature at the LA Times. In a column such as this one on Trump and Ukraine, they use AI to:

  • Tag the column as right, CR, CL left etc
  • Publish an AI generated rebuttal

Quite innovative. I wonder if we might see that here? Maybe someone could design it as a plugin for the main news sites?

General Debate 15 March 2025

Is the Government’s loss of support unusual?

A reader inquired if the support lost by the major party of Government since the election is a record. I didn’t think so, but have now gone and checked the data. This compares the 1st 1 News poll of the middle year of a term against the last election result.

  1. 2008: +9%
  2. 1996: +8%
  3. 1999: +8%
  4. 2017: +8%
  5. 1984: +6%
  6. 1993: +3%
  7. 2011: +2%
  8. 1981: +1%
  9. 2014: +0%
  10. 1978: -1%
  11. 1975: -2%
  12. 2005: -2%
  13. 2002: -3%
  14. 2023: -4%
  15. 1987: -9%
  16. 2020: -10%
  17. 1990: -22%

So the biggest gain at the beginning of the mid year was the 2008 – 2011 National Government which was up 9% and the biggest fall was the 1990 – 1993 National Government which was down a massive 22%.

More Governments were up than down in the start of the middle year of their term, but the 4% drop for the Government is far from the biggest fall.

The death of patriotism

These UK poll results from Matt Goodwin are disturbing. The number of adults who would refuse to fight for their country has more than doubled in 20 years from 19% to 41%.

In one sense it is no surprise. When “the blob” constantly portrays your country as an oppressor, and that you should be ashamed of history instead if proud of it – then little wonder people say they would not fight to preserve it.

Identity politics is part of this also, it undermines society and countries as you get taught to see people as part of demographic groups, rather than fellow citizens.

Bowel cancer screening should be based on clinical need, not ancestry

Simeon Brown announced:

The Government has agreed to progressively lower the age of eligibility for bowel cancer screening tests to align with Australia.

“Today, I am pleased to announce that we are taking the first step by lowering the age to 58, with redirected funding of $36 million over four years.

“This means free bowel screening will become available to all New Zealanders from the ages of 58 to 74,” Health Minister Simeon Brown says.

“Lowering the age of eligibility from 60 to 58 will see 122,000 Kiwis eligible for free tests in the first year and save hundreds of lives over the coming decades.

“This is the first significant step we are taking to align our screening rate for bowel cancer with Australia as funding and access to additional colonoscopy resource becomes available.

“The changes announced today are projected to prevent an additional 771 bowel cancers and an additional 566 bowel cancer deaths over the next 25 years.

“Advice from the Ministry of Health clearly states that lowering the age to 58 for all New Zealanders will save even more lives than the previous government’s approach to lower the age to 50 for Māori and Pacific Peoples only.

“Under our approach, we will be able to prevent 218 additional cancers and 176 additional deaths over 25 years in comparison to the settings proposed by the previous government.

“This also aligns with the Government’s policy of ensuring that healthcare is delivered on the basis of need.

Labour’s policy was close to evil. Their policy was that your ancestry would determine if you get free screening for bowel cancer. People aged 58 and 59 with the wrong ancestors could die because of that.

Bowel cancer is almost 100% preventable with regular screening.

Now it is true that more Maori and Pacific NZers get bowel cancer than other NZers. But this is correlation not causation. As the definition of Maori is one ancestor no matter how far back, that means that a 50 year old David Seymour would get free screening from Labour while a 59 year old Chris Bishop would not.

The major risk factors in bowel cancer are lifestyle. You are more likely to get bowel cancer if you:

  • Eat little fruit or vegetables
  • Are obese
  • Don’t exercise often
  • Drink excessively
  • Smoke
  • Have diabetes

There is a degree of genetics. If family members have had bowel cancer, you are more likely to. And some ethnic groups can have higher rates – in fact globally Ashkenazi Jews have amongst the highest rates in the world.

But here’s why you don’t need to screen on race. There already is free screening for under 60s if you have risk factors such as a family history or have diabetes etc etc. This is going off clinical need, not race. If you go off race or ancestry then you are saying a 50 year old with no risk factors at all (but happens to have a Maori ancestor 180 years ago) should have higher priority than a 59 year old (and age is a large factor).

An interesting paper found in NZ that bowel cancer mortality rates for Maori and Pacific increased massively from 1980 to 2000. The authors (including the current DG of Health) concluded:

In the absence of some other constellation of unrecognised risk factors of overwhelming importance, it must be presumed that there has been a change in diet over time among Mäori and an even more dramatic change among Pacific people.

If it was genetics, then the rates would not have skyrocketed.

So having universal screening of everyone aged 58+ , and targeted screening below 58 based on actual risk profile is the right thing to do.