In my Patreon (paywalled) I analyse the German election results, where AFD got its support from, and predict that they will be the largest party in the Bundestag after the next election.

I, like many, focused on the report by the Public Service Commissioner Inquiry when it was released. I’ve only now had time to go through the seperate report to Stats NZ into the misuse of census data, and it is arguably the more damning. Some of their findings include:

• We were advised that this report was incorrect and unverified. In fact, no confidentiality certificates were completed by any of the people required to do so under the contract.
• While we have seen insinuations about the credibility or motivation of the whistleblowers made public, we note that we found them credible witnesses and that many of the operational details they set out for us were subsequently corroborated by documentary evidence.
• Leaving census forms in an open envelope is completely contrary to Stats NZ policy and confidentiality processes, which require paper census forms to be sealed in front of the individual and placed immediately in the nearest post box. Stats NZ had gone to the extent of providing a list of geo-coded post boxes to WOCA for this purpose.
• We consider it more likely than not that unsealed envelopes were returned to Manurewa Marae. The Marae itself accepts that unsealed envelopes were returned in the final weeks of the contract.
• On balance, we find it more likely than not that some photocopying of census forms occurred.
• The training material provided by Stats NZ to WOCA on 18 May 2023 stated that census forms were never to be photocopied for any reason.
• Manurewa Marae kaimahi did not seal census forms in front of the individuals who completed them and instead returned the forms unsealed to the Marae
• Stats NZ staff member raising concerns about finding boxes of completed Census forms at Manurewa Marae after the contract period concluded.
• We have not been able to establish why the Marae kept completed forms after the census contract period

New Zealanders are obliged by law to complete the census. You can be fined (and some are) for not completing the census. The answers you give can be highly personal. Stats NZ tells us:

The information you provide will be held securely. Paper forms will be processed and kept in a secure storage facility.

All staff, including census collectors, sign a confidentiality certificate before they begin working for Stats NZ. This is a lifetime obligation, meaning they must keep your information safe. If they did disclose any information, they can be prosecuted.

Almost the exact opposite happened. There were no confidential certificate signed. Envelopes were not sealed. The paper forms were read by marae staff. They were left in non secure areas. Some remained there for a year after the census. And it is likely they were photo-copied.

If at the next census someone refused to complete the census and were prosecuted, they’d have a reasonable chance in court of getting off by arguing that they have no faith that the information they were asked to provide would be secure – on the basis of this report.

The Herald reports:

Andrew Bayly will stand down as a Government minister after an “animated discussion” with a staffer, during which he “placed a hand on their upper arm, which was inappropriate”.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has accepted Bayly’s resignation and said Bayly indicated to him that “his actions fell short of the expectations he sets himself”.

Bayly issued a statement saying “concerns have been raised with me about a recent incident in which my behaviour towards a staff member was overbearing and for that, I am deeply sorry”.

You can survive one unforced error, but not two.

“Mr Bayly’s resignation takes effect immediately. Scott Simpson will become Minister for ACC and Commerce and Consumer Affairs.”

While sad for Andrew, I am pleased for Scott who will perform very well as a Minister I am sure.

The Herald reports:

Labour’s finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds has floated the idea of setting an expectation that the large gentailers reinvest dividends into new generation in a bid to ensure enough new electricity supply to keep prices affordable.

We do need more supply, but the best solution to that is the Fast Track law, which will now allow new electricity supply projects to be consented in months not years.

Council of Trade Unions chief economist Craig Renney, who sits on Labour’s Policy Council and is a significant voice in the party’s economic thinking, published a paper in 2022 with 350 Aotearoa and First Union arguing that the part-privatisation of the gentailers by the Key Government was to blame.

Renney said the gentailers had prioritised paying out dividends instead of investing in renewable generation.

Let’s look at this claim. First let’s look at the electricity component of the CPI.

Let’s look at it by three year terms:

• 1993: 18.1%
• 1996: 15.3%
• 1999: 8.3%
• 2002: 7.6%
• 2005: 23.8%
• 2008: 22.9%
• 2011: 10.6%
• 2014: 12.1%
• 2017: 4.7%
• 2020: 4.3%
• 2023: 6.6%

The electricity companies were partially privatised in late 2013. The rate of electricity inflation since then has been massively lower than previously.

This image from The Facts is very powerful. It shows how much of an outlier the result at Manurewa Marae was. Now maybe it is just a coincidence, and that everyone who voted there would have voted the same way elsewhere and still voted.

But the fact the TPM candidate was the chief executive of the marae means we can never be sure. The vote margin at the Marae is eight times more than the margin of the overall electorate.

What we can safely conclude is that there a non-trivial possibility that the decision of the Electoral Commission to place a voting both at the marae, despite knowing its chief executive was a candidate, cost Peeni Henare the seat. Is it 10%, 50% or 90% likely – I don’t know. But it is certainly not zero.

Any possibility that a decision by the Electoral Commission impacted an electoral outcome is very serious. Their job is to run elections., not influence them. And the impact goes beyond the one seat. As TPM won more seats than their party vote, their winning of TM means that they gained an extra seat in Parliament, increasing the total seats from 122 to 123.

The Post reports:

All options are on the table when it comes to looking into the Electoral Commission’s part in Manurewa Marae being used as a polling booth.

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith on Wednesday said he was taking advice regarding an inquiry or review into the Electoral Commission, but “all options are on the table”.

On whether there needed to be some sort of Parliamentary inquiry into the Electoral Commission, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on Tuesday said, “that’ll be a decision for the Parliamentary Services Commissioner” – presumably referring to Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche.

On Wednesday, Luxon revealed he had now “asked for a range of options and mechanisms … there are genuine questions around policy and conduct to answer for”.

I think there does need to be an inquiry. Confidence in the Electoral Commission is vital, and it seems that they prioritised voter turnout over fair elections. It was the wrong decision.

The Herald reports:

An Adelaide mother who stormed a private school and threatened to “slit” the throat of a student who allegedly bullied her daughter has been forced to face court.

On February 3 the 31-year-old mother burst into a classroom full of 12-year-old’s at St Paul’s College in Adelaide and launched into a violent tirade directed at her daughter’s alleged tormentor.

The enraged mother’s actions were caught on camera, where she was heard yelling: “You ever f****** mess with my daughter again I’ll slit your f****** throat.”

“You want to f****** go bitch? You want to f****** go? You ever f****** talk to my daughter again.” …

The woman told 7News that her daughter had suffered a lengthy campaign of bullying and she had tried to raise the issue with the school, “begging” them to help.

“I don’t want my daughter to be another statistic. I don’t want to have to bury my child,” she said.

“She was crying, she was devastated that this child told her to go and hang herself.”

“That is a breaking point for any parent … I went into survival mode, and protective mode. I did let loose, unfortunately (it) was a side, I don’t show very often. But that was a tipping point for that day.”

She said her daughter had been driven to self-harm by a 12-month period of bullying and she and her husband had been trying to get the school to intervene.

They had driven the girl to school to shield her from the abuse.

“I did everything in my power as a parent,” she claimed.

“The school has been negligent on their behalf… They have ignored all aspects about what we stated about the bullying with our daughter.

“I have stated time and time again to the school that we are begging. We begged for help. We begged.”

It goes without saying that the mother should not threaten to slit throats. She will face consequences for that.

But the school should not escape blame. I can sympathise with a parent who sees their kid bullied every day for weeks and months and is worried they will kill themselves due to the bullying. I can understand how a parent might snap as they are desperate to protect their child. The school should have ensured this was not happening.

And I tell you one thing. I suspect the girls who were doing the bullying, will not do so in future!

The Herald reports:

Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon needs to step in after NZ First leader Winston Peters made allegedly “xenophobic” comments about him.

Act leader David Seymour has come to the Green MP’s defence, saying “we’ve got to stop obsessing over when people arrive” in New Zealand.

But Luxon has this afternoon refused to comment, ignoring questions on the matter from the Herald.

It came after Menéndez March used “Aotearoa” in a question in Parliament, which led to Peters interjecting.

Peters said: “Why is someone who applied to come to a country called New Zealand as an immigrant in 2006 allowed in this House to change the country’s name without the mandate, the approval or the referendum of the New Zealand people?”

So we have a somewhat hysterical story with demands the PM intervene over the fact Peters referred to Menendez March as being an immigrant.

Now let’s look at what they have not covered.

So here you have a party leader celebrating the violent death of someone. It is one thing to have a negative opinion of Captain Cook, but to actually celebrate his murder as an act of love is very different. Where are the media stories about how TPM is (again) glorifying violence.

And here we have the Green co-leader as part of a rally billed as “bashing back” which is a clear reference to the violence meted out at the Posie Parker rally last year.

So again where are the media stories about a party leader implicitly endorsing violence. Where are the op eds worrying about this trend of radicalisation on the left.

Instead they cover that Winston did an insensitive point of order.

Stuff reports:

Wayne Brown says he’s standing for Auckland mayor again to continue the “real progress” he’s made over the past three years.

This isn’t based on any polling, but I think Wayne Brown is well placed to be re-elected. The reasons are:

• The last rates increase was only 7%, while elsewhere many rates increases were close to 20%
• He has shown an ability to work with Councillors across the political spectrum
• He has avoided the trap of automatically defending everything the Council does, regardless of the facts. In fact he will put the boot into the Council when he thinks it is justified (such as paying $8,000 per wooden step to the beach).
• He has managed to get both Council and central Government support for CCO reform

It will be interesting to see if Labour/Greens/City Vision put up a candidate, or if C&R do. Or if both groups decide just to focus on ward seats.

Last week I posted re the need to significantly improve education for Maori young people: https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2025/02/more_detail_on_the_need_for_huge_improvement_in_our_education_for_maori_children_and_youth.html

Citing one problem situation does not exclude others so I promised to do a brief look at some education stats from the perspective of Socio-Economics.

Up until a couple of years ago schools had a decile ranking (10 high, 1 low) based primarily on the average income in an address area. Schools now receive a Equity Index Number based on 37 socio-economic “risk-factors”. It is inverse to decile numbers so a high EQI means more students with significant risk factors – a low EQI means few. Each school gets an individual number and an amount of marginal funding is dependant on that.

So …

Attendance:

In Term 3 of 2024 (we have to wait until March 20 before we know about T4 2024)

• Overall full attendance was 51.3%
• In schools where there was fewest at risk-students full-attendance was 61.2%
• In schools with the most at risk students full-attendance was 35%.

Achievement:

Using University Entrance for Leavers as the highest common indicator of achievement (and one that includes Cambridge Schools) and breaking the EQIs into 10ths to match the old deciles.

In 2023

• The schools in the lowest EQI 10th had 70% of their students leave with UE (on average)
• The schools in the second lowest EQI = 67%
• The schools in the third lowest EQI = 52%

• The schools in the 3rd highest EQI 10th had 20% of their students leave with UE (on average)
• The schools in the 2nd highest EQI = 18%
• The schools in the 3rd highest EQI = 8%

Both the attendance and achievement stats make a complete mockery of the Ministry of Education’s purpose statement:

“We shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomes.”

For further reading this brilliant article by Kirsty Johnson in 2018 is insightful.

e.g. “One university took only a single decile one entrant – out of more than 2000 – into its engineering programme in five years. At the same time, it took more than 500 decile 10 students.”

And this recent article on the intake at Otago Medical School.
e.g. “Students from schools in the lowest socio-economic quintile were nearly absent from health professional programme admissions, comprising approximately 2% of students entering those programmes across time,” wrote the authors in the study, released in November.”

Alwyn Poole
[email protected]
alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Chris Christie writes:

In my seven years as the United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey, we brought 130 cases of political corruption. Though I have been a lifelong Republican, corruption has no party—the cases were against Republicans and Democrats alike. The reason those cases were so important was that it showed citizens that betrayal of the public trust would not be tolerated and could not be fixed or explained away. Our ability to govern ourselves, the very basis of our civilized society, could not survive for very long without that belief.

That is why the events of the last week regarding the dismissal of the prosecution of New York City mayor Eric Adams are so disturbing and dangerous. That is why I believe Acting United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York Danielle Sassoon resigned rather than implement that order from Attorney General Pam Bondi and Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove III.

Danielle Sassoon is a former Clerk to Justice Scalia, a member of the Federalist Society and a registered Republican. She has won awards for her ability as a prosecutor. It was an act of immense principle to resign rather than dismiss charges against the Mayor, because politicians wanted her to.

First, Mr. Bove states in his February 13, 2025 letter to Ms. Sassoon that the indictment “interferes with Mayor Adams’ ability to run a campaign in the 2025 election.” The Department of Justice has had a rule for decades that no action should be taken that could potentially affect an election within 60 days of Election Day. The indictment in this matter was brought on September 25, 2024, 405 days prior to the election in question.

If 405 days is close enough to risk election interference, how much time must you allow before an election? Five hundred days? How about a thousand?

So that excuse is nonsense.

Second, Mr. Bove contends that dismissal is required because continuing with the prosecution would interfere with the mayor’s ability to govern in New York City. Under this new Justice Department policy, no official anywhere in our country could be prosecuted while they actively served in elected office. If the official was, in fact, committing crimes while in office, one need only stay in office under Mr. Bove’s directive to save themselves from being held accountable for their alleged conduct.

This new precedent is not only wrongheaded, it also puts at risk the operation of that very government it pretends to protect by having it operated by someone prosecutors and a grand jury of their peers believe committed federal felonies against the citizens they are sworn to represent. This is also a preposterous theory. It is nothing more than a veneer to hide the fact that the DOJ has put the president’s desire to use Mayor Adams to assist with immigration efforts ahead of prosecuting the mayor of America’s largest city.

This is more preposterous and is an awful precedent that if you are facing corruption charges they will be dropped if you make yourself politically useful to the President.

Trump has done many good things since being President. This however is a very very bad thing.

The recent events in the Tasman Sea and around Ukraine have me asking in my Patreon (paywalled) whether it is time for NZ to panic.

It isn’t, but we should be very very concerned.

Chris Lynch reports:

Christchurch Mayor Phil Mauger has asked Council staff to reconsider their decision not to support an official 175th Canterbury anniversary celebration.

The move follows a public backlash over the Council’s refusal to formally endorse the milestone, with staff citing colonial concerns as one of the reasons for their decision.

On Monday, a Council spokesperson told chrislynchmedia.com, “We have shifted towards more inclusive and balanced historical narratives since the 150th anniversary in 2000, which has greater recognition of Māori perspectives and the historical harm of colonisation.”

God save us from woke staff who think that a country can’t celebrate its history and self-flagellation is the only acceptable course of action.

However, on Tuesday afternoon, after public polls by The Christchurch Star and Chris Lynch Media showed overwhelming support for a formal celebration, the Council softened its stance.

In a statement to Chris Lynch Media, Phil Mauger said he had spoken with the Council’s Chief Executive about the issue.

“While the Chief Executive reiterated that it was an operational decision not to support the list of activities suggested by an organiser, I have asked that Civic and International Relations develop a plan for an appropriate civic event to commemorate the occasion in December, which will be done.”

It shouldn’t need the Mayor to intervene for common sense to prevail.

I guess England shouldn’t celebrate its 1,100th birthday in 2027 because of the mean things done to the Mercians in the 900s.

I’m in Methven for the annual Bluegreens Forum. I’ve wanted to attend previous ones, but have not had the time.

I’m really looking forward to this one for a number of reasons, as someone who has a lifelong interest in good policy.

1. It’s almost the only major forum left in National where you can have in depth policy discussion and debate. Remit sessions at regional and national conferences are a shell of what they used to be.
2. Environmental policy is a fascinating area to discuss and study. If you’re in the Greens, there is nothing really to discuss. You believe that the answer to everything is that economic growth is wrong and must be stopped. In National you have a huge number of people who do care a lot about biodiversity, water quality, climate change adaptation and mitigation, the conservation estate etc and want New Zealand to do better there, while being mindful of the impact of regulation on businesses and people’s lives.
3. You cover many different issues. The 2025 forum will cover genetic engineering, RMA reform, emerging tech, conservation, competitive advantage etc
4. You get to hear from non-traditional speakers. For example the CE of Forest & Bird is speaking
5. They have a field trip the day after the forum, where you get to see some hugely innovative projects in action

I may blog some of the panels and discussion if I don’t get too distracted by the nearby hot pools!

Jon Haidt and others write:

A recent study published in The Lancet (Goodyear et al., 2025) has generated newsheadlines suggesting that restricting phone use in schools has no effect on the wellbeing or academic performance of students. This contradicts several previousstudies that did find such benefits.

Haidt notes:

In reality, the study was primarily a comparison of schools with a classroom ban versus schools that let students keep their phones with them at all times, in their backpacks.

Basically it was not comparing schools with no restrictions against schools with a total ban. It was just comparing schools around the middle.

The data in this study was correlational—they did not conduct a study designed to estimate a causal effect. For instance, they might have collected data before and after schools implemented phone policies (as was done here in a study that did find improvements in academic performance)

The latter would be valuable – before and after difference within a school.

Haidt suggests what would be a good study:

Ideally a group of schools could be identified in which some schools will change their policies at the start of the next school year, while other schools maintain a permissive policy. That would provide a control or comparison group (although not one selected by random assignment), which would allow a “difference in difference” study that compares the changes in the schools that changed policies to the changes in schools that did not change policies.”

So basically the Lancet study doesn’t tell us much at all.

Last Sunday I had the privilege of watching NZ 15 year old Sam Ruthe run the fastest 1500m for someone his age in the history of athletics. Not only did he run faster than Snell, Walker, Dixon, Coe, Ovett, El Guerrouj, Ingebrigtsen and Australia young sensation Cameron Myers … but he was very tactically astute and showed real strenth down the home strait to power past two high quality senior runners for a second place. He recently one the NZ semior mens 3000m chapmpionships – also in a worlds best time for his age.

Form the time I was eight years old and saw Bayi, Walker and Dixon run – I was hooked on athletics.

Sir John Walker was the first human to run under 3min 50 seconds for a mile. Then he won the Olympic 1500m gold medal in 1976 … a genuis.

However the words genius, talent and giftedness need to be redefined, for the good of children, every field of human endeavour and the inspiration of adults.

Much of the theory on the development of “gifted and talented” children is problematic. For example, the concept of talent, including IQ, as being fixed. The emphasis is often about the the gratification of parents or the benefit of sports institutions, coaches, (or schools). There is huge concern about the effects of labelling – both on the “gifted” and those excluded. Plus, regardless of the starting point, I cannot find a single example of a human at an exceptional level that has not worked extraordinarily hard to get there, been through many struggles, shown great sense of purpose and remarkable resilience.

In recent years there has been great change in our understanding of the human brain and physique and the development of ability. To name of few influential thinkers there is Carol Dweck and her growth mindset work, Matthew Syed (Bounce) and Malcolm Gladwell (Outliers, David and Goliath). Syed wove his Bounce, around the 10,000 hours concept and has meshed his work into Dweck’s mindset concepts.

The ideas are important as every human has the ability to develop exceptional skill and knowledge sets. To do so requires guidance, many hours of purposeful practice and opportunities to attempt things and respond to both failure and success.

There is huge concern about the mental well-being of young people and adults. The understanding that abilities are grown over time, that “talent” is developed and is available to us all in some form – is mind-changing for young people and for the enhancement of their lives. Teachers change from being ability categorisers and brain fillers to genuine developers of humans. The length of time it takes to become good at a complex skill also changes the approach of sports academies. Instead of “talent ID” they can become developers of ability with a much healthier approach to young people. It allows for a longer term arroach instead of dumping kids at 18 who are not there yet.

If we understand that “genius” is developed – schools and other institutions should still be providing for young people who already have a high degree of developed ability. In doing so they need to emphasise the need to keep taking risks, seeing failure as a stepping stone, and eliminate the negatives of labelling.

These concepts are inspirational for adults too. If an adult is prperaed to put the time and effort in there a no extra barriers in comparison to young people in many fields.

Sam Ruthe appears to have the perfect combination of great heritage and very good coaching. He has arrived early at an exceptional level and it is inspirational to see. He next stated aim is to be the youngest athlete to ever run a sub-4 minute mile.

The Herald reports:

Public servants are still under the microscope as their boss considers cutting government entities, and a parliamentary committee launches an inquiry into the way they report on what they achieve.

Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche fears the sheer number of entities, departments and agencies – some of which are small – creates inefficiencies and duplication.

Speaking to the Herald, he said he was exploring the “open question” of whether some entities should be culled or amalgamated.

“Do we need that many agencies – all of which have their own infrastructure and associated costs – to deliver what’s required?

Great to see the Commissioner focusing on this issue, and the answer is No we don’t.

We have:

• 39 departments
• 6 agencies
• 4 interdepartmental boards
• 27 crown agents
• 35 crown entities
• 25 crown companies
• 150 crown entities subsidiaries
• 2,400 schools
• 27 crown tertiary providers
• 44 other crown organisations
• 12 SOEs

I don’t think one needs to pay PWC $8 million to get a report concluding we have too many agencies!

Bravo to Joann Ransom, the Head of Libraries at Hutt Council. As you can see above she fought against the decision of the Hutt Council to remove an insert from Hutt News they didn’t like (the insert was a copy of a pamphlet Sir Apirana Ngata wrote on the Treaty).

Ransom said:

• The action was an act of censorship
• Council should not control what is in the Hutt News
• Their role is to provide access to information, so long as it is legal
• Libraries should be gateways to information, not gatekeepers
• Intellectual freedom its a human right
• The actions were unethical

Remarkable straight shooting from the Libraries Manager. We need more people like this willing to speak truth to power.

Remarkably her bosses still refuse to say they did anything wrong, forcing the FSU to continue with their court case.

The Herald reports:

Daman Kumar – the 18-year-old threatened with deportation to India despite living in New Zealand all his life – has been offered residency.

Green Party immigration spokesman Ricardo Menéndez March told the Herald he was informed of the development by Associate Immigration Minister Chris Penk’s office this afternoon.

Menéndez March wrote to the minister last week, urging him to intervene and give Kumar and his parents residency.

However, Menéndez March said Kumar’s parents, who have been overstaying in New Zealand for about 24 years, will still be made to leave.

“We are disappointed he has chosen to separate the family,” the MP said.

The decision not to deport Daman Kumar is the right one. He has spent 18 years here and broken no laws. The decision to deport his parents is also correct – they should not be rewarded for breaking the law.

The real solution is not to allow people illegally in New Zealand to remain here for decades. If every overstayer was deported within say 24 months, then you wouldn’t have these cases.

WCC leadership often claims the 20% rates increase was unavoidable and all because of infrastructure needs.

Well here they are handing out $300,000 to businesses so private businesses can pay their staff more than the market rate for roles.